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will Blair Walsh regress or improve in 2013...?
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 12:38 pm    Post subject: will Blair Walsh regress or improve in 2013...? Reply with quote

As a rookie kicker last season, the Ravens' Justin Tucker went 30-for-33 on field goals and 42-for-42 on extra points in the regular season, then went 4-for-4 on field goals and 16-for-16 on extra points in the playoffs. Tucker says he remembers exactly what he did wrong on the three kicks he missed, and he said he thinks hes a better player now than he was when he arrived in Baltimore as an undrafted rookie last year.

Tucker: Its not unrealistic to say that I can have a perfect regular season kicking field goals and extra points. Its just a matter of, no pun intended, putting in the leg work right now.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/05/15/ravens-justin-tucker-i-can-have-a-perfect-season-on-field-goals/


what about Walsh, can he even improve on his phenomenal rookie season?

35 of 38 fg's (92%)
36 of 36 extra points (100%)
53 touchbacks of 86 kickoffs (68%)
10 for 10 on fg's over 50 yards
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Boda


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PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 12:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A player can always improve. Walsh had a great season and there is no denying that but I'd be just as happy with a similar season.

The chances of Walsh replicating or improving from last season are very slim though.
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PrplChilPill


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PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Given that he had a near-historic season, it is unlikely to be as good next year......*

Also, I expect less chances, as Ponder and the WRs will be much better this year, so more TDs.

*btw, he can do worse and still be a very good kicker, imo.
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HighHopes


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PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 1:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Honestly, hopefully Walsh "regresses" its awesome that he was 10 for 10 beyond 50, but obviously he had so many chance because stalled around that spot too many times lol.
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ArcticNorseman


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PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is a slight possibility he improves from last year . . . like going 5 - 5 on FGs of 60+ yards Laughing

In reality, I tend to believe he'll slide a bit just because he set an impressively high standard last year. Having a new holder may not help, but we'll see.

If he's over 85% on FGs and has one missed extra point, that's still a very solid season.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 6:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I expect him to regress, honestly, there isnt much he can do to improve over last year. he was near flawless. Regression isnt the end of the world, assuming he is playing well, considering the bar he set for himself in his rookie year. Regression may not be the best word, i think it has a negative connotation, i still expect him to be a good to great kicker in 2013.
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SteelKing728


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PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If he's consistent, then he's fine with me.

He might not have as good a season statistically (due to what should be a better offense this year), but as long as there is no clear sign of regression, then Blair has nothing to worry about.
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xmichaelp


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PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 11:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I guess it depends on what you mean by "better". It's unfair to say he's regressed from his rookie year if he's only say, 6/6 on 50 yard attempts. A lot of it has to do with how our offense moves the ball, I don't expect him to get as many opportunities for 50 yarders this year.

He can still be just as good or better than he was last year even if his stat sheet isn't as pretty.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 11:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

xmichaelp wrote:
I guess it depends on what you mean by "better". It's unfair to say he's regressed from his rookie year if he's only say, 6/6 on 50 yard attempts. A lot of it has to do with how our offense moves the ball, I don't expect him to get as many opportunities for 50 yarders this year.

He can still be just as good or better than he was last year even if his stat sheet isn't as pretty.


I pretty much agree. Statistically, he more then likely will have a decline. He has too, Walsh had a historically great year. But that doesnt mean his skills regressed per se, but it would appear that way in terms of production.

Its like saying Adrian Peterson regressed if he runs for 1500 yards in 2013. while it may be true from a statistical point, he obviously is very unlikely to reach 2000 yards again in 2013.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 2:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I expect him to regress, honestly, there isnt much he can do to improve over last year. he was near flawless. Regression isnt the end of the world, assuming he is playing well, considering the bar he set for himself in his rookie year. Regression may not be the best word, i think it has a negative connotation, i still expect him to be a good to great kicker in 2013.


Regression is the right word -- statistical regression toward the mean. Assuming he's not going to bat 1.000 lifetime on 50+ yard FGs, Walsh is eventually going to have to miss one, which will put him closer to his "mean" (true level of performance).

Regression does have bad psychological connotations, like a kid sucking his thumb after an owie, but that's not (hopefully) the way in which he's going to regress.

Quote:
It's unfair to say he's regressed from his rookie year if he's only say, 6/6 on 50 yard attempts. A lot of it has to do with how our offense moves the ball, I don't expect him to get as many opportunities for 50 yarders this year.


I've seen this idea a few times, that he kicked so many FGs because our offense wasn't moving the ball. That's not how the stats work. 50-59 yard FG attempts are a function not only of where drives stop (between the opponent's 33 and 42), but of the kicker's ability to kick accurately enough at that distance in those conditions for the coach to be willing to send him out to try. A kicker with a big leg in a dome is going to get a chance from 56 yards, while one who's accurate but not long (like Longwell was in later years) who's kicking outdoors in bad weather will sit on the bench to watch a punt from the same field position.

Walsh went 10/10 outside 50 yards last year. 10 drives stalling between the opponent's 33 and 42 doesn't seem like much, only one every second game. Greg Zuerlein in St Louis (dome team, kicker with a big leg) had 13 attempts from that range, made 7. Four other kickers had 9 attempts, mostly guys with big legs: Janikowski (Oak), Barth (TB), Graham (Hou), Crosby (GB). You wouldn't think the Packers offense is prone to stalling, just that they'd opt for a FG attempt instead of a punt from that field position (bad choice, Crosby was 2/9). Many kickers had 2 or fewer attempts from that distance, probably because they don't have the leg for it (Robbie Gould in Chi).

In terms of total FG attempts from all distances, Walsh tied for 3rd most with 38, same as Bryant (Atl), and behind Akers (SF) with 42. Again, you wouldn't think of the Niners or Falcons as having inefficient offenses.

The Vikings didn't score a lot of TDs last year, but they weren't inefficient in the red zone: 18th in red zone TD scoring percentage with 51%, just behind SF, Sea and Cinci (Packers were 1st).

Meanwhile their defense (a bigger problem last year than Ponder's performance) gave up TDs on 61% of opponent drives into the red zone, 29th in the league (ahead of only Tenn, Buffalo, SD).
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 9:24 am    Post subject: Re: will Blair Walsh regress or improve in 2013...? Reply with quote

vike daddy wrote:
what about Walsh, can he even improve on his phenomenal rookie season?

35 of 38 fg's (92%)
36 of 36 extra points (100%)
53 touchbacks of 86 kickoffs (68%)
10 for 10 on fg's over 50 yards

this coming season, i'll look at Walsh's percentages as a guide to his effectiveness.

Arrow is he hitting 90% of his fg's? dropping from 92% to 90% would be fine, who cares.
Arrow is he hitting 65-70% of his kickoffs in to touchbacks? that was a big improvement over Longwell.
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Zephiel


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not expecting Walsh to replicate last season, but as long as he's still consistently above average (IE not a HUGE sophomore slump) I'd be cool with it.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2013 9:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I project he will kick just as well as last year.

Same number of FGs, EPs, Touchbacks.

( = random walk forecast method )

I may likely be closer than others who predict wide variances from last year.

But, I may not be closer. I like to hedge my bets, like SK. Wink
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Klomp


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 10:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/videos/Blair-Walsh-OTA-Highlights--Interview/570aaa69-a73b-4fec-aab1-f3448eae0b23
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HighHopes


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 10:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Randomish question. Do you guys think Kickers are just told to kick it as hard as they can in Kickoffs or do they want to try to hit the very end in hopes of a stupid KR who gets tackled before the 20?
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