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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CriminalMind wrote:
Determining a possible "fair" contract for Griffen will depend on how much Gareenteed and how much is also incentive laden.

4 years and 22-27 is a fair deal depending on the structure.


This ^ is essentially my reply to vikingsrule. But I don't know the correct market value. The point is that only a portion of the contract should be guaranteed due to the uncertainty. The rest of the fair market value for a DE should be the bonuses and performance incentives.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are really no fully guaranteed deals in the NFL. The only such cases are really first round picks under the new CBA.

So saying only a portion should be guaranteed isn't really necessary. That's the greatness of the NFL when compared to the ridiculous deals in the NBA and MLB.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
The only issue with paying Griffen what he wants to be a starter at DE is that he could in fact be an awful starting DE. We truly dont know how he would play in that capacity since Allen rarely takes snaps off.

Allen is at least solid right now, and the Vikings will have to draft a third DE regardless of which DE is resigned.

If you resign Allen, you can draft a third DE that will be much cheaper then what Griffen wants.

If you resign Griffen, you better hope he plays similarly to Allen this year, or better. And there wont be much depth to step in if he performs poorly as his backup will be a rookie.

Griffen has more upside, but he is also a bit more risky.


There's the evidence that Griffen has been an effective pass rusher this year despite mostly rushing from DT. PFF lumps his snaps at DT in with his snaps at DE, but they have him 12th in the league for "pass rush productivity" among 4-3 DEs. Robison's 8th, Allen's 26th.

I would think RDE is a more dangerous place to be rushing the passer from than DT (fewer double teams for one thing). So I would take his current production as an underestimate of where he'd end up next year as a full time RDE.

There's always risk in projecting future player performance, but at this point I think Griffen is less risky than Allen in 2014, and way less risky in 2015.

...

The long term question also hugely favors keeping Griffen.

Robison's deal has no guaranteed money past next year. They can hope and expect that he'll be productive for another 2-3 years, but who knows. When he starts to slow down, they can renegotiate him to a lower price for a final year or two. They'll need a developmental DE behind Robison by 2015 or '16.

If Allen stays, both he and Robison will likely retire or need to be replaced within a year or two of each other, around 2016 (right when the rest of the roster of 2012-13 1st round picks should be peaking). Replacing them will require at least 2, maybe 3 draft picks in the next 2 years, one of which had better be a 1st or 2nd rounder, plus or minus a premium FA signing (which will be impossible as long as Allen is making huge money and taking all the snaps at RDE).

Moving on from Allen gives Griffen a chance to shine. A long term deal with most of the guaranteed money in the first 2 years protects the team's investment in him without causing too much trouble if he can't cut it as a full time starter. I'd happily offer him 5-6 years with plenty of incentives and most of the guaranteed money paid out by 2015. If he succeeds, you've got a premium position on defense nailed down for budget prices until 2018-19.

They'll still need to draft a developmental DE / pass rusher this year, but that can be a 3rd/4th round project given that the starters would presumably be set for 2-3 years at least.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
There are really no fully guaranteed deals in the NFL. The only such cases are really first round picks under the new CBA.

So saying only a portion should be guaranteed isn't really necessary. That's the greatness of the NFL when compared to the ridiculous deals in the NBA and MLB.


OK, let me clarify, although I think I was clear enough by distinguishing between guaranteed money and incentives....

If Griffen has uncertainty surrounding his ability to be a full time starting DE, less than the usual portion of his fair market value contract salaries should be guaranteed, and a greater than normal share of it should be incentives.

'Usual' and 'normal' in the last statement mean the usual portions for typical vet starting DEs who have a credible track record of starting for a few years.
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Longest Lurker


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2013 6:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As they say, "history is the biggest predictor of the future."

I think Spielman will retain Griffen with a fair-to-strong offer, and let Allen go. I love JA (who doesn't), but resigning him doesn't match the track record of RS.

Spielman likes to take educated gambles by taking players that are 4-5 years in the league and overpay them to "realize their potential" with multi-year deals. Sometimes it works (Shiancoe) and sometimes it doesn't (Berrian) and sometimes mixed (Carlson). Either way, this is RS signature move when it comes to multi-year deals in FA.

Spielman tends towards not extending offers to older players (8-12 years) - even if they play solid. I think this is more a business decision than anything as it is cheaper to go younger. JA offers leadership, but we have other veteran leaders on the DL (Robison).

I am of the view that we retain Griffen. I think there is enough tape of Griffen to evaluate and project his performance at DE. He has played multiple positions for the last few years and has shown flashes of dominance. That, and this is a weak class for DEs. If the value is there (the right player at the right spot) I would like to draft a DE in rounds 1-2, and also take a gamble on an athletic freak in rounds 4-6.

I am not sure what is out there for free agent DEs but those are more risky as compared to internal "hires". It takes a lot of effort to acquire a solid DE in free agency. They have to "want" to be here - which in the case of the Vikings is that we overpay. This isn't NE Pats or 9ers where players will take the first offer just to play for that organization.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2013 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Longest Lurker wrote:
Spielman likes to take educated gambles by taking players that are 4-5 years in the league and overpay them to "realize their potential" with multi-year deals. Sometimes it works (Shiancoe) and sometimes it doesn't (Berrian) and sometimes mixed (Carlson). Either way, this is RS signature move when it comes to multi-year deals in FA.

Spielman tends towards not extending offers to older players (8-12 years) - even if they play solid. I think this is more a business decision than anything as it is cheaper to go younger. JA offers leadership, but we have other veteran leaders on the DL (Robison).


Griffen's situation is different from most of the other external FA deals in that he's moving from a backup to a projected starter. Berrian was a starter in Chicago, more comparable to the Jennings signing. Carlson was injured. Shiancoe is a good comparison, never had more than 12 catches in a season as a backup with the Giants before coming to Minnesota, where he had 208 receptions and 27 TDs in 5 years.

...

Spielman has an excellent track record in knowing when to let players go. The last ex-Viking to have a great career after leaving Minnesota was Birk, who left in 2008 in part because he was feuding with Childress.

Since then, it's hard to put together a list of ex-Vikings who've excelled: Sharper had one great season with NO in 2009 but then barely played in 2010 and retired, McKinnie has been terrible but played well in the playoffs for the Ravens last year, Rice has had a few moments in Seattle between injuries, etc. Almost all of the players allowed to sign elsewhere or cut have done next to nothing since leaving Minnesota. Even Harvin hasn't done much so far.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2013 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

^ And let me add to Krauser's list of players allowed to leave and not having done much thereafter:

Antoine Winfield, who many here were upset about leaving for Seattle.
Ray Edwards, who many here were.... etc.
Pat Williams, who some here were.... etc.
Chester Taylor,
Smoooooooot! ( pre-Spielman?)

Krauser is onto something here; i.e. those in Winter Park now are a lot like Kenny Roger's once sung about a good gambler: they know when to hold 'em, and know when to fold 'em.
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CriminalMind


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2013 9:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
^ And let me add to Krauser's list of players allowed to leave and not having done much thereafter:

Antoine Winfield, who many here were upset about leaving for Seattle.
Ray Edwards, who many here were.... etc.
Pat Williams, who some here were.... etc.
Chester Taylor,
Smoooooooot! ( pre-Spielman?)

Krauser is onto something here; i.e. those in Winter Park now are a lot like Kenny Roger's once sung about a good gambler: they know when to hold 'em, and know when to fold 'em.


Longwell -- no job offer after
Kluwe -- no job offer after
Devin A -- no job offer after
Jaspher Brinkley -- I think he has looked well in Arizona
Sanford -- has been nothing special but he is what he is

We haven't really let good talent walk away
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2013 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^ i was going to start a thread on this subject, or add it to the Spielman thread.

as to whether he knows when to let the vets go, even though it's not popular to do so.

Matt Birk was one of the few whose career kept going well. maybe McKinnie's, but not so much.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 29, 2013 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A conclusion that may be drawn from the above expanding list of players allowed to leave by Spielman....

Whichever free agent DE Spielman tenders a reasonable offer, that DE has probably proven with recent performances that he has at least a few good years ahead. This is partially supported with the 'recent' extension of Robison.

I project that Spielman will let go of less effective (recent or future) DLs, and focus on retaining a DE/DT who was effective in a limited number of snaps, (Griffen). Spielman will try to replace those DL with 2 potential starters; a NT/DT hybrid (likely a free agent; signing cost is lower than a starting DE) and a pass rush specialist DE/LB hybrid (likely drafted; costs less than a vet DE starter).
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 29, 2013 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jared Allen: "I'm not looking for a miraculous sign -- it's not that I'm going to sit around and wait for lightning to strike. But I truly believe in good faith that God has a plan for me and my family. He brought me to Minnesota. I couldn't understand it at the time, but when you look back, you see the blessings, how my life has changed. So it's just going to be prayer and really just trusting that the right answers are going to come. Things always work out the way they're supposed to. I'm a firm believer in that. It's not just me making this decision. I've got to talk to my wife, got to think about what's best for my daughter, what's best for my health. There are so many things that go into that process, I'm not going to make a rash decision."

http://www.twincities.com/vikings/ci_24809377/charley-walters-vikings-jared-allen-says-prayer-will
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 29, 2013 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From the game thread...

twslhs20 wrote:
griffin is going to be expensive


He may be expensive, but he's going to be worth it. He was a force today. That sack was better than anything we saw from Allen all year.

Even $8M per will probably seem like a bargain in a year or two.
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 29, 2013 6:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
That sack was better than anything we saw from Allen all year.

err... it was a missed blocking assignment and he ran in untouched.

the sack was great and what he should have gone for, but he also had an chance to strip the ball and only be a few yards from the endzone.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 29, 2013 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm offering 5M if I'm Spielman and I'm not going a cent higher than $6.5M AAV.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 29, 2013 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vike daddy wrote:
Krauser wrote:
That sack was better than anything we saw from Allen all year.

err... it was a missed blocking assignment and he ran in untouched.

the sack was great and what he should have gone for, but he also had an chance to strip the ball and only be a few yards from the endzone.


OK, hyperbole.

But most of Allen's sacks this year were coverage sacks and clean-up jobs on failed scrambles. Hard to think of a quick, explosive sack he had all year.

Best 2 sacks of the year from the DL were both Griffen's: today's and the one in Wembley where the fumble saved the game. And both were edge rushes.

Sign him, please.
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