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I don't buy the LT hype
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brawl.kc


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2013 11:55 pm    Post subject: I don't buy the LT hype Reply with quote

Forget about positional value, draft pick value and everything that you've ever been force-fed about the NFL draft. The fact is that we have the pick above all others. No matter who we pick, we get the chance at the best guy in the draft this year.

That being said, I believe this pick is just too valuable to pick a player at a position where the next team is going to pick the other guy. To me, there isn't enough seperation between the top 1-3 LTs on the board to warrant my golden ticket. I want the guy who has the highest grade that is also accompanied by the biggest gap inbetween him and the next player at his same position. To me, I don't want a guy that I could say that picking the other guy would have been just as good of a pick.

This is why I fully believe that the Chiefs have been using the possible trade to BA as a third-party valuation of what his worth is in the NFL. If I'm John Dorsey, I pull Branden into my office tomorrow at 6:45pm with a contract just slightly better than the 'Fins had and give the man a pen. You solve every problem thrown your way and allow the team who has fallen in love with either Joeckel or Fisher the most and take your bounty for the two.

Or, I'd pick Dee Milliner/Dion Jordon/Sharif Floyd. Either way.
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FrostyCow


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Picking say, Dee Millner, over Joekel or Fischer just because Joekel and Fischer are closely rated and play the same position doesn't make much sense. Using this logic, then the Colts shouldn't have picked Luck because RG3 was going to go next. Or, the Lions should have skipped on Suh because McCoy was all but guaranteed to go 3rd.

If both Joekel and Fischer are better OTs than Millner is a CB, and if either of them would result in more wins than Millner, then it would be flat out foolish to take the weaker prospect because he's the only good player at his position.

Let's say Johnathon Ogden, Orlando Pace, and Willie Roaf are in the draft. The next best player behind them is Scott Fujita who happens to be the only LB worth a dime in the draft. We have the number one overall pick, would you choose Fujita? I know that example is an extreme, but it proves the point - skipping on a player just because the position is top heavy doesn't make sense.
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Rumless


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:27 am    Post subject: Re: I don't buy the LT hype Reply with quote

brawl.kc wrote:
To me, there isn't enough seperation between the top 1-3 LTs on the board to warrant my golden ticket.

Your sentences below indicate you think the left tackles don't have the blue-chip trait over the rest available. Problem is, are there any really great and unique prospects this year? The only one I might argue is Tavon Austin (who if we picked I definitely wouldn't complain about), and he can either be the dynamic player he was in college that brings a weapon to any offense who gets him, or he can be the next Dexter McCluster. That's my biggest hesitation with drafting Austin.

The main difference between drafting an offensive tackle at #1 and drafting an offensive tackle in the second, third, fourth, whatever round, is that at #1 we're getting a day-one starting prospect. This is opposed to a guy who, unless the other 31 teams simply evaluate him wrong, is not a day-one starter and more of a long-term project. And who did we draft one pick ahead of Russell Wilson last year? Oh yeah, a project at left tackle.

brawl.kc wrote:
I want the guy who has the highest grade that is also accompanied by the biggest gap inbetween him and the next player at his same position. To me, I don't want a guy that I could say that picking the other guy would have been just as good of a pick.

Two quarterbacks went #1 and #2 in 2012. There's a possibility two offensive tackles go #1 and #2 in 2013. So, if you had the #1 overall pick in 2012, who would you have taken? Trent Richardson? Matt Kalil? Mark Barron?

brawl.kc wrote:
This is why I fully believe that the Chiefs have been using the possible trade to BA as a third-party valuation of what his worth is in the NFL. If I'm John Dorsey, I pull Branden into my office tomorrow at 6:45pm with a contract just slightly better than the 'Fins had and give the man a pen. You solve every problem thrown your way and allow the team who has fallen in love with either Joeckel or Fisher the most and take your bounty for the two.

Or, I'd pick Dee Milliner/Dion Jordon/Sharif Floyd. Either way.

This was an unexpected tidbit:
@RapSheet wrote:
I said on Around the League: #Chiefs GM John Dorsey called Florida DT Sharrif Floyd yesterday to check on him. Hmmm. At 1 or for trade back?

Could be nothing but a smokescreen, but the question is, is Floyd really that much better than the other defensive linemen there at #1? I don't think so. Is Jordan that much better than the other rush options available? I will say yes, but others will say Maybe not.
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Da_Zou13


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
. If I'm John Dorsey, I pull Branden into my office tomorrow at 6:45pm with a contract just slightly better than the 'Fins had and give the man a pen

Amen brother.

A good saying i like to go by for the first pick is "pick someone who scores touchdowns, or sacks the qb"and last I checked LTs dont score touchdowns. We need to get someone who can attack the line of scrimmage and get to the qb. We really only have 1 reliable pass rusher in tamba, and Houston could be a second if he continues to improve, but we need someone on our Dline to get after the QB.
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2013 7:41 am    Post subject: Re: I don't buy the LT hype Reply with quote

brawl.kc wrote:
To me, there isn't enough seperation between the top 1-3 LTs on the board to warrant my golden ticket.


The problem with this.. is likely your access. Not enough separation... for you? Are you a professional scout? Did you interview these prospects and bring them in front of the chalkboard? Did you pour over actual game film and test out their knowledge? Get to know them a bit and see how their minds work?

Don't take offense please... I say G'bless the NFL fans that love the draft. But let's face it... "not enough separation" for the fans is frequently due to poor homework... and that is due to either laziness or poor access to make more clear conclusions.
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brawl.kc


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2013 8:44 am    Post subject: Re: I don't buy the LT hype Reply with quote

oldman9er wrote:
brawl.kc wrote:
To me, there isn't enough seperation between the top 1-3 LTs on the board to warrant my golden ticket.


The problem with this.. is likely your access. Not enough separation... for you? Are you a professional scout? Did you interview these prospects and bring them in front of the chalkboard? Did you pour over actual game film and test out their knowledge? Get to know them a bit and see how their minds work?

Don't take offense please... I say G'bless the NFL fans that love the draft. But let's face it... "not enough separation" for the fans is frequently due to poor homework... and that is due to either laziness or poor access to make more clear conclusions.


Its simply a matter of deduction. I could go on to say that I have my sources, which could end my discussion there but leave no real valid possibility for a conversation about it. So, using public information that is readily available to anybody is what I will use for this discussion.

Almost everybody agrees that this year's talent, especially at the top of the draft is lesser than in the years prior, as there is not much of a difference in scouting grades from rounds 1-4.

If Luke Joeckel is such a big can't miss prospect that ends every conversation, then tell me how the heck Eric Fisher is allegedly #1 to about 1/2 of the teams that won't even have the opportunity to draft him (this includes Mike Mayock)? Furthermore, If Joeckel is that far ahead of everybody else, but Fisher is right behind him and in some eyes the lead, then please for the love of all that's holy tell me many people believe that Lane freaking Johnson can go #3 overall? To me, there's no value in taking somebody #1 at LT when:
A: You've already got one and
B: The rookie might not even be better than the guy you've got
C: Joeckel isn't even the consensus, hands down, #1 player in the draft, and finally
D: Why use the most valued ammunition in the game (a high draft pick) to move your team backwards talent-wise before the season even starts?

Are these three players really that far above the rest of the pack? To me, its brainwashing. How many of these "can't miss" "safe picks" have we seen bust out?

This is a chance to get anybody in the draft and not have to worry about it. You have to have a guy that makes a difference. I don't care if you pull an Al Davis and get the best kicker in a decade, just make it somebody who is going to make an impact in the game. I don't see the purpose in trading a guy that is already at least league-average, probably above-average, to use the first overall pick on somebody who is going to play lesser football that year, and get the 54th pick overall in return.

IMO, as a new GM, you don't immediately jettison both starting tackles, draft a replacement when you could've had anyone in the world, and then pick up a mid 2nd rounder and hope to get another impact player there. That's going the wrong way in the draft when you can pick anyone you freakin want.

I like Milliner because you can't have enough good corners in this league. He has little pressure on him the first year because he's surrounded by vets. I like Floyd at #1 because of his size. The fan in me wants Sheldon Richardson, but I'm just clouding my judgement because I loooove the kid.
Dion Jordon is a guy who is going to put pressure on the QB, that's something that we always need more of. Regardless of our fan's opinion of the Hali/Houston combo, the Defense still needs to produce more pressure on the opponent's QB because our secondary was getting shredded last year.
I'm okay with us even taking a QB as long as its Smith, Barkley, Nassib or Manuel.
Point being -- if there's a guy out there that improves the dynamic of the Chiefs for 2013 and beyond, go get him. I just don't see how any of these tackles are quite worth the #1 overall considering our current roster.
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DT58_lives_on


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2013 9:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
C: Joeckel isn't even the consensus, hands down, #1 player in the draft, and finally


I think he's as close to a consensus as you'll get this year.

Quote:
I like Milliner because you can't have enough good corners in this league. He has little pressure on him the first year because he's surrounded by vets. I like Floyd at #1 because of his size. The fan in me wants Sheldon Richardson, but I'm just clouding my judgement because I loooove the kid.


So, a nickle back, a t-rex, and a guy that isn't even considered a top 10 player would be better picks? Not sure I follow. But I'll make it clear, I'd rather keep Albert. To me then you pick a DE who can get to the passer, so it'd be Ziggy. Floyd does nothing but make last year's first round pick look worse. I'm way not ready to move on from Poe, taking Floyd who is ONLY a NT would kick Poe outside and make one of the better off-season acquisitions into a bench player.

Jordan, you're right on this, he can hopefully get to the QB, but if you're afraid of a sure thing busting, how are you not afraid of a potential guy busting. And while I agree more pressure is better, why draft a guy 1 overall, who would take 1 of the 2 people on the team who gets consistent pressure OFF the field? IF, and only IF we think Jordan can play ILB (which I'm still against considering there are some good actual ILB's in the draft) then I'm more ok with the pick. Otherwise it looks like a luxury while we still have needs.


Quote:
Its simply a matter of deduction. I could go on to say that I have my sources, which could end my discussion there but leave no real valid possibility for a conversation about it. So, using public information that is readily available to anybody is what I will use for this discussion.


To me, the issue becomes, we don't know the intricacies. We don't know how they interviewed, how the coaching staff feels about their fit, their team attitude etc. We know measurables, we know who they played and how they performed at the combine. I'm sure the FO/Coaching staff know more, it's why they get paid the big bucks, and as fans we rant and rave about how we could do better. And it is how they make picks EVERY year.
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2013 9:17 am    Post subject: Re: I don't buy the LT hype Reply with quote

brawl.kc wrote:

Almost everybody agrees that this year's talent, especially at the top of the draft is lesser than in the years prior, as there is not much of a difference in scouting grades from rounds 1-4.


I'll just say this...

1. I think most actually agree that AFTER the first two OTs, the rest are questionable as to being true, top 5 worthy talents. While there is very little separation between the 2 OTs? There is significant separation between most of the rest.

2. I am actually on board with KC retaining Albert VS trading him for a mid-2nd rounder. I'm a big proponent of a strong OL, so I would recommend keeping BA and drafting one of the OTs at #1. There are plenty of questions about the rest in the top 10.
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jimmydee


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2013 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brawl, "using public information" implies that you have an inside link to Dorsey and more information to make your opinion more valuable, and that if you put that information out here, the didcussion would be over. To quote, "Please, Child."

Your arrogance is exceeded only by your presumption of our ignorance. Wink
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Diesel2692


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So instead let's take a player who isn't as good as either one if the offensive tackles??? smh
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wishbone20


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:08 pm    Post subject: Re: I don't buy the LT hype Reply with quote

oldman9er wrote:
brawl.kc wrote:

Almost everybody agrees that this year's talent, especially at the top of the draft is lesser than in the years prior, as there is not much of a difference in scouting grades from rounds 1-4.


I'll just say this...

1. I think most actually agree that AFTER the first two OTs, the rest are questionable as to being true, top 5 worthy talents. While there is very little separation between the 2 OTs? There is significant separation between most of the rest.

2. I am actually on board with KC retaining Albert VS trading him for a mid-2nd rounder. I'm a big proponent of a strong OL, so I would recommend keeping BA and drafting one of the OTs at #1. There are plenty of questions about the rest in the top 10.


I'm with the SF fan. Its not sexy at all, but putting Joeckel/Fisher at RT with BA at LT will help our team extraordinarily. I don't care that the two best players in the draft happen to play the same position, I'm still taking one of them.
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bpinsky33


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:28 pm    Post subject: Re: I don't buy the LT hype Reply with quote

wishbone20 wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
brawl.kc wrote:

Almost everybody agrees that this year's talent, especially at the top of the draft is lesser than in the years prior, as there is not much of a difference in scouting grades from rounds 1-4.


I'll just say this...

1. I think most actually agree that AFTER the first two OTs, the rest are questionable as to being true, top 5 worthy talents. While there is very little separation between the 2 OTs? There is significant separation between most of the rest.

2. I am actually on board with KC retaining Albert VS trading him for a mid-2nd rounder. I'm a big proponent of a strong OL, so I would recommend keeping BA and drafting one of the OTs at #1. There are plenty of questions about the rest in the top 10.


I'm with the SF fan. Its not sexy at all, but putting Joeckel/Fisher at RT with BA at LT will help our team extraordinarily. I don't care that the two best players in the draft happen to play the same position, I'm still taking one of them.

I can handle taking an OT, but I get what Brawl is saying. Taking an OT and trading Albert just because he is the high rated player in this draft doesn't make our team drasticlly better (even if they play better than Albert). I disagree about Millner, we don't take a 3rd or 4th CB with the #1 oveall pick. I would put serious consideration into drafting Star or Ziggy as they can play DE in the 3-4 and help the unit that I feel has the biggest question marks.

As for using Miami as a guide for a contract is not likely to happen. Lets say we offer BA a similar contract to the one the Dolphins offered, why would the Dolphins (or any team) want to trade with us in good faith? The only way it would work is if Miami was offering a contract similar to what we were already offered.
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Mongo


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I doubt the Chiefs are trading Branden Albert because the BPA is a LT. They clearly don't want to pay him Duane Brown money. It's negotiating leverage. So he'll either take less or be traded and be replaced by the BLTA.

I would love to see Albert signed and the Chiefs draft elsewhere, but I don't think its going to happen.
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2013 6:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mongo wrote:
I doubt the Chiefs are trading Branden Albert because the BPA is a LT. They clearly don't want to pay him Duane Brown money. It's negotiating leverage. So he'll either take less or be traded and be replaced by the BLTA.

I would love to see Albert signed and the Chiefs draft elsewhere, but I don't think its going to happen.


I don't see why he can't just happily play for the F-tag money and audition the year to get his next fat contract in 2014. Just suck it up, Branden. What is it? like 9 million dollars to play a game? Poor guy.

Branden Albert at LT and Fisher/Joeckel a RT for a year. After the season, Albert can run for the long-term fat contract hills... Joeckel or Fisher shift to LT... done. This give the offense its best chance to function well right outta the gate in a tough year 1 development. This gives Stephenson or whoever is on the roster two full offseasons to get their stuff together and step up to start in 2014.
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samsel23


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2013 6:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

oldman9er wrote:
Mongo wrote:
I doubt the Chiefs are trading Branden Albert because the BPA is a LT. They clearly don't want to pay him Duane Brown money. It's negotiating leverage. So he'll either take less or be traded and be replaced by the BLTA.

I would love to see Albert signed and the Chiefs draft elsewhere, but I don't think its going to happen.


I don't see why he can't just happily play for the F-tag money and audition the year to get his next fat contract in 2014. Just suck it up, Branden. What is it? like 9 million dollars to play a game? Poor guy.

Branden Albert at LT and Fisher/Joeckel a RT for a year. After the season, Albert can run for the long-term fat contract hills... Joeckel or Fisher shift to LT... done. This give the offense its best chance to function well right outta the gate in a tough year 1 development. This gives Stephenson or whoever is on the roster two full offseasons to get their stuff together and step up to start in 2014.


This, most of this is BA's fault. I don't blame him for wanting a longterm deal, but if you have so much confidence in your abilities, play on the tag and prove it. Another part is I think the Chiefs want to get rid of that 9 mil this year, whether by signing BA or drafting someone.
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