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Apollo Stallion


Joined: 06 Feb 2008
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Location: Battle Red State
PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:32 pm    Post subject: Texans Draft Tendencies Reply with quote

Clearly, I don't intend on winning any "guess the pick" contests as I usually give away me best stuff, but this is about the time of year I like to evaluate the Texans draft tendencies and then follow up with who that may mean for us. I will give this to Smithiak, they have been throwing a tendency buster in there in the past few drafts (B. Brooks, B. Harris, T. Holliday) so that now becomes a tendency in and of itself.

So here's this years version to get us rolling:

Tendency # 1 - Avoid players with arrests/character concerns - Posey may have been a slight departure (and not a good one), but just laugh at anyone who mocks Ogletree here.

Tendency # 2 - Love to trade down / rarely trade up - results have been mixed. Trading down in 08 and reaching a bit for Duane Brown eventually worked out but so did Flacco, but Slaton / Molden didn't fill major CB / RB need directly leading to drafting CB / RB 1 / 2 in 2010. Traded down multiple times in 2010 settling on Ben Tate, Daryl Sharpton, McManus, for picks that yielded Gerhart, Brandon Spikes, Tony Moeaki Suspect trading down in 2012 will directly lead to taking WR in 1 / 2 in 2013 with the extra pick netting Jared Crick. Sole trade up of note was moving up to get Brandon Harris which cost us a 3rd & a 5th with the Pats twisting the knife and getting Stephen Ridley (who killed us in the playoffs while Harris killed us in the regular season vs. Pats)

Tendency #3 - Love big school players - last year was perfect to form with a BCS sweep aside from dual tendency buster Brandon Brooks. Painful love of Smith's Big 10 including 5 last year alone! Miami, Va Tech, Alabama, Texas, are all followed closely. No love for the Big 12 until late.

Tendency #4 - Shameless late round support to "insider" schools - Purdue, Rice, CSU. Rice/Purdue picks to close last 2 drafts not even close to making roster. Studdard was buddies kid. Bullock was from Klein which must have overridden A&M sour grapes. Biggest lock of the draft is Rice's McDonald if he lasts until the 3rd.

Tendency # 5 - Quantity over quality in the secondary. 10 picks in rounds 4-7. 1 each in 1 & 2 & 3. Likes middle round linemen. Ben Tate and Duane Brown are his only offensive picks in first 2 rounds in 6 drafts. 7 3rd round offensive picks since 06 (06 was Casserly).

Tendency # 6 - Multiple picks in same position in same draft. 2012 - 2 wrs / 2 Gs, 2011 - 3 dbs / 2 lbs, 2010 - 2 cbs / 2 TEs, 2009 - 2 TEs / 2 DBs.

Tendency # 7 - Players high from top performing units on top teams - Mercilus, Watt, Jackson, Cushing, Brown. Subset would be 2nd round team leader types like Reed / Barwin. Even Roc Carmichael qualifies here. Texans rarely go for the best player on bad teams or small schools.

Tendency # 8 - Special teamers on day 3 - friggin Marciano has been gifted K. Martin, Bullock, Keo, McManus, Holliday, Dickerson, Nolan, Barber.

Tendency # 9 - Tried not to get too editorial here, but the Texans have a maddening tendency to miss out on the position quality then reach for the next tier. Examples abound including missing Randle /Sanu, reaching for Posey/Martin missing Hilton/Givens. Missing Jimmy Graham / Hernandez / Pitta grabbing G. Graham. 3rd round in 08 still kills me with Molden / Slaton in a round that featured J. Charles / D. Connor / Zbikowski / J. Finley / Manningham / Decoud. Understand not wanting to give up a 3rd with no 2nd, but Ray Rice was built for us and Rick needed to go get him vs. settling. Ditto top heavy 2010 where getting Haden, Matthews, Thomas, JPP trumped settling for Jackson, McCourty, Wilson saving the 2nd rounder for Tate.

Tendency #10 - Rick Smith has ice in his veins. We'll never know what was going on in the war room, but Rick seems to be fine watching seemingly "perfect" players for us go off the board. Covered 08 plenty already (CB/RB dream draft). In some ways 09 was harder with Orakpo, Malcolm Jenkins still on the board, yet him holding firm for Cushing. Watching the Chargers grab Matthews in 2010 then watching Earl Thomas, JPP, come off. Not moving on Von Miller, Patrick Peterson, Aldon Smith then grabbing Watt over Fairley, Quinn, Amukamura. Watching all the WRs go off last year, then still getting a "steal" with Mercilus.

Did I miss any? What does this tell us about 2013?
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kenney


Joined: 24 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I posted this in a similar topic on the NFL Draft board:

kenney wrote:
... for the Houston Texans:

-Have they shown a tendency to draft players with a lot of experience (games started) or do they consider raw potential and upside?

Yes. The Texans tend to go for players from big programs who have extensive starting experience and substantial college production.

-Have they favored Senior Bowl guys?

Yes.

-How highly is character valued when they draft Do they have an affinity for team captains?

The Texans value character at a premium.

-What do they favor more--Athleticism or Production?

Is both a good answer?

-Have they shown a tendency to draft from a specific school (or coach), region or conference?

They appear to believe that the B1G is a gold mine after drafting J.J. Watt. They also like Miami (FL) and Virginia Tech players.

-Do they draft for need or do they often select the best player available?

They draft for need and sometimes their big board is a bit... unorthodox.

-Do they prioritize future needs, such as a unit with 2+ free agents in 2014?

Yes. See Mercilus drafted to replace Barwin.

-Is there a position they favor early? Is there a position they stay away from early?

They tend to draft front seven players in the 1st round.

-Is there anyone in particular they've tipped their hat on early or late for the 2013 draft?

No.

-Do they draft the guys they bring in on official visits (like the Cowboys and Bears) or do they bluff as much as possible leading up to the draft?

No. They almost never draft guys they bring in on visits. Sometimes they'll draft players who went to the same school as players who they bring in for visits.

-Overall, how predictable are they?

Not very.


I don't think you missed anything in particular, but they do appear to value seniors who have produced with their first round picks (at least on defense). They like pro-readiness (which you touched on with their affinity for big schools) and seem to have "types of players" allocated to certain rounds in terms of value.
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Marco79


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think with early picks we like going with young players. Watt, Kareem, Mercilus, and Brandon Harris, were all juniors.

We also wanted Ruben Randle who was a junior.

Also we always seem to get an East West shrine game player.
Last year it was Shawn Loiseau, Davin Megget, and Brandon Brooks
2011 there was Lestar Jean, Terrence Toliver, Jeff maehl, Cheta Ozougwu.
2010 we had Shelley Smith and Earl Mitchell.
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kenney


Joined: 24 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2013 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marco79 wrote:
I think with early picks we like going with young players. Watt, Kareem, Mercilus, and Brandon Harris, were all juniors.

We also wanted Ruben Randle who was a junior.

Also we always seem to get an East West shrine game player.
Last year it was Shawn Loiseau, Davin Megget, and Brandon Brooks
2011 there was Lestar Jean, Terrence Toliver, Jeff maehl, Cheta Ozougwu.
2010 we had Shelley Smith and Earl Mitchell.


I thought Watt was a senior who lost a year because he transferred?
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ServantofYHWH


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2013 9:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The CSU connection but it doesn't really need to be said. Everybody knows.
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Marco79


Joined: 14 Jan 2007
Posts: 11563
Location: Bloomington, IN
PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenney wrote:
Marco79 wrote:
I think with early picks we like going with young players. Watt, Kareem, Mercilus, and Brandon Harris, were all juniors.

We also wanted Ruben Randle who was a junior.

Also we always seem to get an East West shrine game player.
Last year it was Shawn Loiseau, Davin Megget, and Brandon Brooks
2011 there was Lestar Jean, Terrence Toliver, Jeff maehl, Cheta Ozougwu.
2010 we had Shelley Smith and Earl Mitchell.


I thought Watt was a senior who lost a year because he transferred?

I thought he technically forgo'd his senior year.
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Apollo Stallion


Joined: 06 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 2:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ServantofYHWH wrote:
The CSU connection but it doesn't really need to be said. Everybody knows.


It's over now. Kubs kids have graduated CSU, their ZBS coach (Fairchild) was fired so it's on to Rice for little bro. Rick Dennison played for CSU so it still runs deep. Shelley Smith to the Texans remains the most obvious pick ever and still amazed we just let him walk away. Few people realize that David Anderson was the only ofther CSU draft pick. Brad Ven Pelt, Joel Dreesen, Dexter Wynn, Cecil Sapp, were all signed as free agents. Mike Brisiel, Jesse Nading were UDFAs

Gartell Johnson to the Chargers in 2009 remains a shocker along with Caleb Hanie to Chicago.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I should have added "rarely hold official meetings with prospects they are interested in." This year provides an exception since we actually met with one of our draft picks, although they covered by including meetings with Woods & Williams. Just for comparison's sake, the Cowboys met with 4 of their 7 picks including most of the guys they reached for.

One tendency I've noticed a bit is for the Texans to invite teammates of prospects they are interested in or "similar players." For instance, we clearly were big into UConn this year, but staged our "official" meeting with Sio Moore. Bring in Tyronn & Minter, draft Montgomery. Getting intel from teammate perspective perhaps - excuse to be talking to coaching staffs, getting their practice tape, etc? The Tennessee State guy looks like an excuse to be scouting Jacksonville State (Bonner) in same division. Bring in Wolff to get scoop on covering Hopkins? Several of the guys we brought in played AGAINST players we drafted. Could be nothing, but always curious about reading between the lines on these things as clearly it is rare for us to directly express any interest in players pre-draft.

Official meetings:
Anthony Amos, WR, Middle Tennessee State (EW)
Marvin Burdette, ILB, UAB (VINT)
Jonathan Cyprien, DB, Florida International (PRI)
Will Davis, DB, Utah State (SR#)
Kevin Finney, TE, Richmond (PRO)
Cobi Hamilton, WR, Arkansas (COM)
Gerald Hodges, LB, Penn State (EW)
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson (COM)
Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma (INT) (COM)
Don Jones, DB, Arkansas State (PRI)
Jose Jose, DT, Central Florida (PRI)
Eric Kush, OL, California PA (EW)
Tyrann Mathieu, DB, LSU (PRI)
Kevin Minter, LB, LSU (INT)
Sio Moore, LB, Connecticut (EW)
Latavius Murray, RB, Central Florida (INT)
Jamar Taylor, DB, Boise State (PRI)
Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame (COM)
Kayvon Webster, CB, South Florida (EW)
Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor (COM)
Earl Wolff, DB, N.C. State (PRI)
Robert Woods, WR, USC (COM)
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kenney


Joined: 24 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apollo Stallion wrote:
I should have added "rarely hold official meetings with prospects they are interested in." This year provides an exception since we actually met with one of our draft picks, although they covered by including meetings with Woods & Williams. Just for comparison's sake, the Cowboys met with 4 of their 7 picks including most of the guys they reached for.

One tendency I've noticed a bit is for the Texans to invite teammates of prospects they are interested in or "similar players." For instance, we clearly were big into UConn this year, but staged our "official" meeting with Sio Moore. Bring in Tyronn & Minter, draft Montgomery. Getting intel from teammate perspective perhaps - excuse to be talking to coaching staffs, getting their practice tape, etc? The Tennessee State guy looks like an excuse to be scouting Jacksonville State (Bonner) in same division. Bring in Wolff to get scoop on covering Hopkins? Several of the guys we brought in played AGAINST players we drafted. Could be nothing, but always curious about reading between the lines on these things as clearly it is rare for us to directly express any interest in players pre-draft.

Official meetings:
Anthony Amos, WR, Middle Tennessee State (EW)
Marvin Burdette, ILB, UAB (VINT)
Jonathan Cyprien, DB, Florida International (PRI)
Will Davis, DB, Utah State (SR#)
Kevin Finney, TE, Richmond (PRO)
Cobi Hamilton, WR, Arkansas (COM)
Gerald Hodges, LB, Penn State (EW)
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson (COM)
Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma (INT) (COM)
Don Jones, DB, Arkansas State (PRI)
Jose Jose, DT, Central Florida (PRI)
Eric Kush, OL, California PA (EW)
Tyrann Mathieu, DB, LSU (PRI)
Kevin Minter, LB, LSU (INT)
Sio Moore, LB, Connecticut (EW)
Latavius Murray, RB, Central Florida (INT)
Jamar Taylor, DB, Boise State (PRI)
Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame (COM)
Kayvon Webster, CB, South Florida (EW)
Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor (COM)
Earl Wolff, DB, N.C. State (PRI)
Robert Woods, WR, USC (COM)


I've noticed this as well and believe what you described is a legitimate tendency/tactic that Smith and our scouting department employ.
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texanteddyp


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PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 4:08 pm    Post subject: Re: Texans Draft Tendencies Reply with quote

Apollo Stallion wrote:
Clearly, I don't intend on winning any "guess the pick" contests as I usually give away me best stuff, but this is about the time of year I like to evaluate the Texans draft tendencies and then follow up with who that may mean for us. I will give this to Smithiak, they have been throwing a tendency buster in there in the past few drafts (B. Brooks, B. Harris, T. Holliday) so that now becomes a tendency in and of itself.

So here's this years version to get us rolling:

Tendency # 1 - Avoid players with arrests/character concerns - Posey may have been a slight departure (and not a good one), but just laugh at anyone who mocks Ogletree here.

Tendency # 2 - Love to trade down / rarely trade up - results have been mixed. Trading down in 08 and reaching a bit for Duane Brown eventually worked out but so did Flacco, but Slaton / Molden didn't fill major CB / RB need directly leading to drafting CB / RB 1 / 2 in 2010. Traded down multiple times in 2010 settling on Ben Tate, Daryl Sharpton, McManus, for picks that yielded Gerhart, Brandon Spikes, Tony Moeaki Suspect trading down in 2012 will directly lead to taking WR in 1 / 2 in 2013 with the extra pick netting Jared Crick. Sole trade up of note was moving up to get Brandon Harris which cost us a 3rd & a 5th with the Pats twisting the knife and getting Stephen Ridley (who killed us in the playoffs while Harris killed us in the regular season vs. Pats)

Tendency #3 - Love big school players - last year was perfect to form with a BCS sweep aside from dual tendency buster Brandon Brooks. Painful love of Smith's Big 10 including 5 last year alone! Miami, Va Tech, Alabama, Texas, are all followed closely. No love for the Big 12 until late.

Tendency #4 - Shameless late round support to "insider" schools - Purdue, Rice, CSU. Rice/Purdue picks to close last 2 drafts not even close to making roster. Studdard was buddies kid. Bullock was from Klein which must have overridden A&M sour grapes. Biggest lock of the draft is Rice's McDonald if he lasts until the 3rd.

Tendency # 5 - Quantity over quality in the secondary. 10 picks in rounds 4-7. 1 each in 1 & 2 & 3. Likes middle round linemen. Ben Tate and Duane Brown are his only offensive picks in first 2 rounds in 6 drafts. 7 3rd round offensive picks since 06 (06 was Casserly).

Tendency # 6 - Multiple picks in same position in same draft. 2012 - 2 wrs / 2 Gs, 2011 - 3 dbs / 2 lbs, 2010 - 2 cbs / 2 TEs, 2009 - 2 TEs / 2 DBs.

Tendency # 7 - Players high from top performing units on top teams - Mercilus, Watt, Jackson, Cushing, Brown. Subset would be 2nd round team leader types like Reed / Barwin. Even Roc Carmichael qualifies here. Texans rarely go for the best player on bad teams or small schools.

Tendency # 8 - Special teamers on day 3 - friggin Marciano has been gifted K. Martin, Bullock, Keo, McManus, Holliday, Dickerson, Nolan, Barber.

Tendency # 9 - Tried not to get too editorial here, but the Texans have a maddening tendency to miss out on the position quality then reach for the next tier. Examples abound including missing Randle /Sanu, reaching for Posey/Martin missing Hilton/Givens. Missing Jimmy Graham / Hernandez / Pitta grabbing G. Graham. 3rd round in 08 still kills me with Molden / Slaton in a round that featured J. Charles / D. Connor / Zbikowski / J. Finley / Manningham / Decoud. Understand not wanting to give up a 3rd with no 2nd, but Ray Rice was built for us and Rick needed to go get him vs. settling. Ditto top heavy 2010 where getting Haden, Matthews, Thomas, JPP trumped settling for Jackson, McCourty, Wilson saving the 2nd rounder for Tate.

Tendency #10 - Rick Smith has ice in his veins. We'll never know what was going on in the war room, but Rick seems to be fine watching seemingly "perfect" players for us go off the board. Covered 08 plenty already (CB/RB dream draft). In some ways 09 was harder with Orakpo, Malcolm Jenkins still on the board, yet him holding firm for Cushing. Watching the Chargers grab Matthews in 2010 then watching Earl Thomas, JPP, come off. Not moving on Von Miller, Patrick Peterson, Aldon Smith then grabbing Watt over Fairley, Quinn, Amukamura. Watching all the WRs go off last year, then still getting a "steal" with Mercilus.

Did I miss any? What does this tell us about 2013?


You forgot they love former TEs........

Duane Brown
Watt
Connor Barwin
Eric Winston
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lumberjackchris


Joined: 14 Apr 2011
Posts: 4779
PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 3:50 pm    Post subject: Re: Texans Draft Tendencies Reply with quote

texanteddyp wrote:
Apollo Stallion wrote:
Clearly, I don't intend on winning any "guess the pick" contests as I usually give away me best stuff, but this is about the time of year I like to evaluate the Texans draft tendencies and then follow up with who that may mean for us. I will give this to Smithiak, they have been throwing a tendency buster in there in the past few drafts (B. Brooks, B. Harris, T. Holliday) so that now becomes a tendency in and of itself.

So here's this years version to get us rolling:

Tendency # 1 - Avoid players with arrests/character concerns - Posey may have been a slight departure (and not a good one), but just laugh at anyone who mocks Ogletree here.

Tendency # 2 - Love to trade down / rarely trade up - results have been mixed. Trading down in 08 and reaching a bit for Duane Brown eventually worked out but so did Flacco, but Slaton / Molden didn't fill major CB / RB need directly leading to drafting CB / RB 1 / 2 in 2010. Traded down multiple times in 2010 settling on Ben Tate, Daryl Sharpton, McManus, for picks that yielded Gerhart, Brandon Spikes, Tony Moeaki Suspect trading down in 2012 will directly lead to taking WR in 1 / 2 in 2013 with the extra pick netting Jared Crick. Sole trade up of note was moving up to get Brandon Harris which cost us a 3rd & a 5th with the Pats twisting the knife and getting Stephen Ridley (who killed us in the playoffs while Harris killed us in the regular season vs. Pats)

Tendency #3 - Love big school players - last year was perfect to form with a BCS sweep aside from dual tendency buster Brandon Brooks. Painful love of Smith's Big 10 including 5 last year alone! Miami, Va Tech, Alabama, Texas, are all followed closely. No love for the Big 12 until late.

Tendency #4 - Shameless late round support to "insider" schools - Purdue, Rice, CSU. Rice/Purdue picks to close last 2 drafts not even close to making roster. Studdard was buddies kid. Bullock was from Klein which must have overridden A&M sour grapes. Biggest lock of the draft is Rice's McDonald if he lasts until the 3rd.

Tendency # 5 - Quantity over quality in the secondary. 10 picks in rounds 4-7. 1 each in 1 & 2 & 3. Likes middle round linemen. Ben Tate and Duane Brown are his only offensive picks in first 2 rounds in 6 drafts. 7 3rd round offensive picks since 06 (06 was Casserly).

Tendency # 6 - Multiple picks in same position in same draft. 2012 - 2 wrs / 2 Gs, 2011 - 3 dbs / 2 lbs, 2010 - 2 cbs / 2 TEs, 2009 - 2 TEs / 2 DBs.

Tendency # 7 - Players high from top performing units on top teams - Mercilus, Watt, Jackson, Cushing, Brown. Subset would be 2nd round team leader types like Reed / Barwin. Even Roc Carmichael qualifies here. Texans rarely go for the best player on bad teams or small schools.

Tendency # 8 - Special teamers on day 3 - friggin Marciano has been gifted K. Martin, Bullock, Keo, McManus, Holliday, Dickerson, Nolan, Barber.

Tendency # 9 - Tried not to get too editorial here, but the Texans have a maddening tendency to miss out on the position quality then reach for the next tier. Examples abound including missing Randle /Sanu, reaching for Posey/Martin missing Hilton/Givens. Missing Jimmy Graham / Hernandez / Pitta grabbing G. Graham. 3rd round in 08 still kills me with Molden / Slaton in a round that featured J. Charles / D. Connor / Zbikowski / J. Finley / Manningham / Decoud. Understand not wanting to give up a 3rd with no 2nd, but Ray Rice was built for us and Rick needed to go get him vs. settling. Ditto top heavy 2010 where getting Haden, Matthews, Thomas, JPP trumped settling for Jackson, McCourty, Wilson saving the 2nd rounder for Tate.

Tendency #10 - Rick Smith has ice in his veins. We'll never know what was going on in the war room, but Rick seems to be fine watching seemingly "perfect" players for us go off the board. Covered 08 plenty already (CB/RB dream draft). In some ways 09 was harder with Orakpo, Malcolm Jenkins still on the board, yet him holding firm for Cushing. Watching the Chargers grab Matthews in 2010 then watching Earl Thomas, JPP, come off. Not moving on Von Miller, Patrick Peterson, Aldon Smith then grabbing Watt over Fairley, Quinn, Amukamura. Watching all the WRs go off last year, then still getting a "steal" with Mercilus.

Did I miss any? What does this tell us about 2013?


You forgot they love former TEs........

Duane Brown
Watt
Connor Barwin
Eric Winston


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