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2013 Raider Watch Mock Draft (Apr.) V.8
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Baggabonez


Joined: 29 Apr 2010
Posts: 5739
Location: RaiderNation
PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:27 pm    Post subject: 2013 Raider Watch Mock Draft (Apr.) V.8 Reply with quote

This is my last before the season. I hope you enjoy and leave comments. My PC is going down so I probably won't be able to reply until tomorrow. So rip it up good!

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 2013 Oakland Raiders ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Transactions ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Free Agency
• NE WR Brandon Lloyd 6’0” 188lbs (32)

2013 NFL Draft
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ NFL Trades ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

OAK gets: 1.12, 2.11, 3.15, 3.20
MIA gets: 1.3

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ NFL Mock Draft ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
1. Chiefs (2-14): OT Luke Joeckel – The Chiefs have made it clear by trading former LT Albert on the block that they are committed to Joeckel
2. Jaguars (2-14): DT Shariff Floyd – Defensive HC goes defensive. Floyd, who some consider the best prospect in the draft, fulfills a need as the Jags lose DTs Mosley & Knighton in FA and Alualu has severely underperformed.
3. Dolphins (7-9)(via Oakland): OT Eric Fisher – Dolphins trade up to get the LT they desperately need.
4. Eagles (4-12): OLB Dion Jordan – His HC & DL coach are both now in Philly and transitioning to a 34 the Eagles need OLBs. This pick will be the first surprise of the draft and a reach that will mark a fundamental shift in Philly culture. Kelly intends to challenge the dynamics of the game and needs players familiar with his approach.
5. Lions (4-12): OT Lane Johnson – The Lions desperately need to replace both bookends to protect their franchise QB who historically has struggled with durability. It the Lions wish to keep the “Best Show on Turf” going then they need to keep Stafford upright and healthy.
6. Browns (5-11): CB Dee Milliner – The Browns get bookend premiere CBs.
7. Cardinals (5-11): OG Chance Warmack – The Cardinals trade for LT Brandon Albert and select the consensus best interior OL in the draft.
8. Bills (6-10): WR Tavon Austin – Buffalo has been seeking a threat across from WR Stevie Johnson for quite some time.
9. Jets (6-10): DE Star Lutolelei – The Jets need a NT to make their defense go and have no faith in Ellis.
10. Titans (6-10): TE Tyler Eifert – The Jets need an outlet target for “Check Down Locker”
11. Chargers (7-9): OG Jonathan Cooper – The Bolts must desperately do something to improve the OL.
12. Raiders (4-12)(via Miami): DT Sheldon Richardson
13. Jets (6-10) (via Buccaneers): FS/SS Kenny Vacarro – Vacarro is the rare safety that can hold an athletic TE like Gronk in check.
14. Panthers (7-9): WR Cordarrelle Patternson – Steve Smith is on the backside of his career and Newton needs weapons.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~Raiders Mock Draft ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Round 1
1.12 - 12th Overall (via Miami)
• Sheldon Richardson l DT l Miizzou l ht: 6’ ½ “ l wt: 294lbs l Arm Length: 34 ½ ” l 40: 4.81 (Pro Day)

The Skinny: Interior pass rushers are hard to find and the Raiders would love to get one to establish some type of pass rush. Absent an elite edge rusher in the draft the Raiders opt for one of the better inside pass rushers. Richardson is longer, more explosive and stronger than Floyd and Richardson has been interviewed by the Raiders. I could rehash all the arguments why I like Richardson over Floyd but I’ll leave you with this. Richardson had one of his best games against the best interior OL in college football, Alabama.

Strengths:
• Rare Exceptional Quickness
• Length
Weaknesses:
• Disciplinary Action: Suspended 1 Game for Skipping Class
• Not Stout at the PoA

2013 Outlook: Starting UT
Reminiscent of: DET DT Nick Fairley
Raider Connection: Combine Interview

Round 2
2.5 - 37th Overall
• Traded to Cincinnati as part of the 2012 Carson Palmer trade


2.10 - 42nd Overall (via Miami)
• Tyler Bray l QB l Tennessee l ht: 6’6 ⅛” l wt: 232lbs l Arm Length: 33” l Hand Size: 9 Ό”

The Skinny: Let me start off by saying that Bray is not the QB that I want leading my team but my intuition leds me to believe he is in play. There are numerous indications that the Raiders are still interested in drafting the QBotF despite trading for Seattle’s Matt Flynn. Flynn has been restructured into a contract that can be easily jettisoned should he lose the job. There are rumors that Flynn never fully recovered from the injuries that allowed Russell Wilson to surpass him on the depth chart. The consensus on Bray is that he has the strongest arm in the draft but also has the most questions surrounding his character. It is anticipated that there will be a run on Tier II QBs at the top of the second round so the value is there. Should the season go array having Bray also gives the FO the flexibility to go in any direction in the draft in 2014. Bray has impressive stature and arm strength but he also struggles with accuracy. However, in this instance many pundits believe his lack of accuracy is more the result of poor footwork & decision making rather than throwing motion.

Strengths:
• Arm Strength
• Physical Stature
Weaknesses:
• Leadership
• Disciplinary Issues (Throwing Golf Balls & Beer Bottles at Parked Cars from his Balcony)
• Accuracy Due to : Lazy Footwork & Aggressive Decision Making (Gun-slinger Mentality)

2013 Outlook: 3rd QB
Reminiscent of: CHI QB Jay Cutler (per CBS)
Raider Connection: Reggie seems to have an affinity for connections and Bray is from his alma mater, Tennessee. Combine Interview

Round 3
3.4 - 66th Overall
• Vance McDonald l TE l Rice l ht: 6’4” l wt: 267lbs l Arm Length: 34” l 40: 4.69

The Skinny: I like this TE class. It doesn’t possess much elite talent or a complete TE prospect after Eifert but it does have an abundance of intriguing prospects. One of my favorites, Vance McDonald, possesses the best size/ speed ratio. I have McDonald slipping in the draft a bit because his hands aren’t the cleanest and a run on QBs in the second will push McDonald down.

Strengths:
• Length
• Best Size/Speed/Length Ratio at His Position
Weaknesses:
• In-line Blocking
• Top End Speed
• Will Drop Easy Balls

2013 Outlook: Starting TE
Reminiscent of: DALL TE Jason Witten
Raider Connection: Coached Against McDonald in the 2013 Senior Bowl

3.15 – 77th Overall (via Miami)
• Christine Michael l RB l Texas A&M l ht: 5’10” l wt: 220lbs l 40: 4.54 l 10: 1.49 l Vertical: 43” l B-Jump: 10’5” l Hands: 9 ⅜”

The Skinny: Michael is clearly a 2nd round talent but a 1st class knucklehead. No one can accurately predict where Michaels stock will fall because there are questions surrounding his durability and character. Michael’s stock was blazing hot after a great showing at the Senior Bowl but after over-sleeping and missing 2 team interviews Michael could slip a bit. RB is a serious need because it is highly doubtful (to ME at least) that McKenzie will resign DMC and the Raiders need to get his heir apparent in the fold to shore up his pass blocking (where rookie RBs are typically weak). With ties to Texas A&M Allen has the inside on Michael in addition to seeing him in action at the Senior Bowl. Personally, I am mesmerized by the way Michael runs. He gets low to the ground and runs behind his pads. If McKenzie leans on Dynamic Explosion Numbers then Michael tests off the charts! Apparently, two NFL prospects trashed their room at the Combine. Is there a connection here? If so Michael goes UDFA.

Strengths:
• Unbelievable Explosion Formula Numbers
• Low Runner
• Runs Behind his Pads
Weaknesses:
• Pass Blocking
• Durability
• Buried on the Depth Chart in College for Disciplinary Issues (Bad Mouthing Playcalling on Twitter)

2013 Outlook: 2nd RB
Reminiscent of:
Raider Connection: Played at HC Allen’s alma mater. Major Raider footprint at Texas A&M Pro Day.

3.20 – 82nd Overall (via Miami through Chicago)
• Aaron Dobson l WR l Marshall l ht: 6’2⅝” l wt: 210lbs l Arm Length: 33” l 40: 4.42 (Pro Day)


The Skinny: At one time I never thought Dobson would anything more than a luxury pick and I took him off my board. However, with DHB being dismissed and the questionable durability of both Moore and Ford it could be argued that WR could now be a position of need. HC Allen got an excellent look at Dobson while coaching him at the Senior Bowl. Two incidents of note: Allen personally coaching Dobson about the nuances of the game and Dobson plucking the ball out the air while being draped by a pressing CB. If you are tired of seeing WRs drop easy balls or frustrated by the inability of WRs to make difficult catches then Dobson is your man.

Strengths:
• Exceptional Hands
Weaknesses:
• Breaking Press Coverage
• Short Area Quickness/ Straight-Line Runner
• Disappears in Games

2013 Outlook: Boundary WR
Reminiscent of: FA WR Brandon Lloyd
Raider Connection: Coached by the Raiders Staff in the 2013 Senior Bowl

Round 4
4.3 – 100th Overall
• Chris Faulk l OT l LSU l ht: 6’5” l wt: 331lbs l Arm Length: 34 Ό ” l 40: 5.08

The Skinny: (Credit JTagg)
Honestly, I hadn’t even considered Faulk at RT until JTagg brought him up and began to break down Faulk’s film. Faulk is an excellent 4th round prospect whose stock has been dinged by the knee injury he is still recovering from. LSU runs a PBS and while Faulk has excelled in both run blocking and pass blocking he does struggle with speed rushers, which is usually an indication of a switch to RT. I would love to take a shot at DE Devin Taylor here but Faulk is much more of a need. It’s close between the two.

Strengths:
• Length
Weaknesses:
• Struggles with Speed Rushers
• Girthy/ Questionable Conditioning
• Durability

2013 Outlook: 2nd RT
Reminiscent of: Andrew Whitworth (credit CBS)
Raider Connection: BPA

Round 5
5.5 - 133rd Overall
• Traded to Seattle as part of the 2012 Aaron Curry trade


Round 6
6.4 – 172nd Overall
• Brandon Jenkins l DE/OLB l Florida State l ht: 6’2 ½ ” l wt: 251lbs l Arm Length: 33 Ό “ l Bench: 18 l 40: 4.68 (2011)

The Skinny: Talk about a fall from grace. Jenkins is a prospect that was once more highly regarded than both Werner and Carradine. Jenkins is the only prospect of the 3 that actually has experience rushing both standing and with his hand in the dirt. Conversely, it is alarming that Jenkins, who has been preparing for the draft since his injury early in the season, could only muster 18 reps of 225lbs and looked in pain while running at the combine. Rather than envisioning a player that can transition to DE on passing downs here is a prospect that has actually done it.

Strengths:
• Long Arms
• Versatility/ Has Extensive Experience Rushing from Multiple Stances
Weaknesses:
• Injured (Foot)
• Strength

2013 Outlook: PUP and then special teams and rotational SLB/pass rushing specialist.
Reminiscent of: Former Raider DE Derrick Burgess
Raider Connection: BPA

6.8 – 176th Overall (via Arizona)
• Manase Foketi l OG/OT l West Texas A&M (via Kansas State) l ht: 6’4 ⅜” l wt: 318lbs l Arm Length: 34 ½”

The Skinny: Foketi has become the darling of draftniks like myself. Not only is Foketi long but he is a large man with a typical Polynesian build. Although Foketi can struggle with speed rushers his great size and strong base will slow attackers forced to run around him. There are questions surrounding his mental toughness and his sudden departure from Kansas State after he was injured. Hopefully this Cali prospect comes home this April.

Strengths:
• Length
• Excellent Bulk
Weaknesses:
• Struggles with Speed Rushers
• Footwork
• Lacks Aggressiveness

2013 Outlook: Starting LG
Reminiscent of: GB OT Marshall Newhouse (credit CBS)
Raider Connection: BPA


6.37 – 205th Overall
• Quanterus Smith l DE l Western Kentucky l ht: 6’5” l wt: 250lbs l Arm Length: 33 ½” l 40: 4.74

The Skinny: People here love Quanterus and he is well known. QS is an intriguing edge rusher who had a break out game vs Alabama. He is both long and quick and a great value at this position in the draft. At the time of his injury, Quan was leading the nation in sacks (12.5), average sacs per game (1.25) and 4th in tackles for loss (1.38 ). Quan lacks bulk and may have to play OLB, a position at which he has no experience.

Strengths:
• Length
Weaknesses:
• Lacking Bulk
• Not Stout at the PoA

2013 Outlook: Pass Rushing Specialist after PUP
Reminiscent of: BUFF OLB/DE Manny Lawson
Raider Connection: BPA

Round 7
7.3 - 209th Overall
• Dominick Reyes l SS/OLB l Stony Brook l ht: 6’4” l wt: 220lbs l 40: 4.59

The Skinny: Not much to say here. The kid can obviously hit and used to love the Raiders!

National Football Post wrote:
What was it like growing up in Hesperia, CA? Did you grow up a Chargers fan? - I kind of grew up a 49ers fan, but as I grew older all my cousins were from LA so I became a Raiders fan. As I got a little older and started watching football more and I didn’t follow any team I just like watching good games.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Character-Guys-Profile-Dominick-Reyes.html

Strengths:
• Length
• Aggressive Tackler
Weaknesses:
• Coverage Skills
• Lacks Top End Speed
• Lacks Fluid Hips

2013 Outlook: Special Teams
Reminiscent of: n/a
Raider Connection: Grew up a Raider fan.

Legend:
Draft
Trade
Free Agent

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Starting Lineups ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

OFFENSE
WR – Moore, Streater, Ford
TE - McDonald, Gordon, Ausberry
RT – Barnes, Faulk
RG – Brisiel, Nix
OC – Wisniewski, Parsons
LG – Foketi, Bergstrom
LT – Veldheer, Smith
WR – Lloyd, Dobson, Criner
RB – DMC, Michael, Stewart
FB – Reece
QB – Flynn, Pryor, Bray

DEFENSE
RE –Hunter, Carter
DT – Richardson, Walker
NT – Sims, Bilukidi
LE –Houston, Crawford
WLB – Maiava, Burris
MLB – Roach, Goethel
SLB –Burnett , Jenkins
RCB – Porter, Adams, Francies
SS – Branch, Reyes
FS – Young, Ross
LCB – Jenkins, Hanson, Chekwa

SPECIAL TEAMS
K – Janikowski
P – King
LS – Condo
RS – Ford, Francies
_________________
Raiders 2014 Draft (check out my draft review tell me what you think)
Mancrush 2014: DE Clowney, WR Watkins, OT Robinson, LB Shazier, FS Brooks, TE ASJ, OG Jackson, WR Janis, OT Lucas, OT Tiny
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DarthDavis


Joined: 06 Mar 2006
Posts: 5213
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like your scouting. But Bray, McDonald, Dobson, and Michael are all picks I wouldn't make. I think there are some better talents slated for those positions.

I would like to see a Safety, NT, Guard, and RT with those picks. We need quality depth more then playmakers.

Reyes is a good find.
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macklemore


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I love Sheldon Richardson, Christine Michael and Vance McDonald picks so props for that. I'm not a fan of the Tyler Bray pick in the second round. I don't think we need to draft a QB that high this year, An offensive or defensive lineman with that pick would have made this an A+ mock. Also, If you drafted a RT or OG in the second you could have gone Devin Taylor in the 4th.
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Baggabonez


Joined: 29 Apr 2010
Posts: 5739
Location: RaiderNation
PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DarthDavis wrote:
I like your scouting. But Bray, McDonald, Dobson, and Michael are all picks I wouldn't make. I think there are some better talents slated for those positions.

I would like to see a Safety, NT, Guard, and RT with those picks. We need quality depth more then playmakers.

Reyes is a good find.


The Raiders don't need playmakers? Hmm...

Do tell these "better" prospects.
_________________
Raiders 2014 Draft (check out my draft review tell me what you think)
Mancrush 2014: DE Clowney, WR Watkins, OT Robinson, LB Shazier, FS Brooks, TE ASJ, OG Jackson, WR Janis, OT Lucas, OT Tiny
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Baggabonez


Joined: 29 Apr 2010
Posts: 5739
Location: RaiderNation
PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

macklemore wrote:
I love Sheldon Richardson, Christine Michael and Vance McDonald picks so props for that. I'm not a fan of the Tyler Bray pick in the second round. I don't think we need to draft a QB that high this year, An offensive or defensive lineman with that pick would have made this an A+ mock. Also, If you drafted a RT or OG in the second you could have gone Devin Taylor in the 4th.


I don't want Bray either. My intuition is that McKenzie doesn't want to be locked into drafting a QB in 2014 and in the 2nd the value will be there. The main folks who won't like this are Bridgewater or Pryor folks but I respect that.
_________________
Raiders 2014 Draft (check out my draft review tell me what you think)
Mancrush 2014: DE Clowney, WR Watkins, OT Robinson, LB Shazier, FS Brooks, TE ASJ, OG Jackson, WR Janis, OT Lucas, OT Tiny
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CaliforniaKid7


Joined: 23 Jan 2010
Posts: 5736
Location: Cali
PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not bad not bad. I'm not crazy about the Bray pick just because of the value of other players we cod get there immediately but I do think he can develop into our QBOTF. I would have liked to see a safety, preferably Rambo, Shamarko Thomas or Phillip Thomas. Maybe instead of Dobson or Faulk. Not bad though. Definitely helps offense and gets our defense some pash rush and athleticism.
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ch8878


Joined: 12 Mar 2012
Posts: 2620
PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would only change the 2nd and 3rd round picks like :

2nd Round : RB - Montee Ball

3rd Round : QB - Tyler Bray

3rd Round : TE - Gavin Escobar

Other then that awesome draft.

PS been saying Bray is the sleeper in the draft because WR's, TE's, and RB's dropped allot of catches and bad coaching.
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ZoomWaffle


Joined: 25 Apr 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 8:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I may be in the minority, but I would be all for Bray in the 2nd or later. It is ironic, because I have always said I want accuracy over arm strength, but there is just something I really like about Bray. It would be nice to get a starting OL, DB, etc at that spot, but I think with some patience, Bray could really pay off and be a legit QB.
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La_Vader wrote:
I wouldn't trade Pryor for any prospect in this years draft. Quote me on that
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DarthDavis


Joined: 06 Mar 2006
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Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DarthDavis wrote:
Baggabonez wrote:
DarthDavis wrote:
I like your scouting. But Bray, McDonald, Dobson, and Michael are all picks I wouldn't make. I think there are some better talents slated for those positions.

I would like to see a Safety, NT, Guard, and RT with those picks. We need quality depth more then playmakers.

Reyes is a good find.


The Raiders don't need playmakers? Hmm...

Do tell these "better" prospects.




Sure, I don't like Bray's attitude. I don't think he fits the new regime. I personally like Manuel and Wilson but hey its a crapshoot. I think Swope brings a unique addition to our team as we don't have a very good slot receiver, I really like the 6th/7th round depth at RB guys like Dennis Johnson and George Winn, and your weaknesses on McDonald are the reason he scares me. I see Joseph Fauria bringing much the same talent with less of a draft value.

I never said we don't need playmakers, I said we need quality depth. I don't want to draft potential superstars, I want to draft solid football players.

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Professor Oak


Joined: 12 Apr 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great detail in your mock as usual. I actually wouldn't mind it at all if our draft did turn out like this.

The only thing I don't like or even see happening is taking a QB in round 2. I just don't see us taking a QB that early this year - especially after we just got Flynn & have so many other needs to address. And for the record, I am actually somewhat intrigued by Bray's physical assets & upside. I just think there would be better options at other positions on the board at pick 42.
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Baggabonez


Joined: 29 Apr 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2013 12:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="DarthDavis"]
DarthDavis wrote:
Baggabonez wrote:
DarthDavis wrote:
I like your scouting. But Bray, McDonald, Dobson, and Michael are all picks I wouldn't make. I think there are some better talents slated for those positions.

I would like to see a Safety, NT, Guard, and RT with those picks. We need quality depth more then playmakers.

Reyes is a good find.


The Raiders don't need playmakers? Hmm...

Do tell these "better" prospects.




Sure, I don't like Bray's attitude. I don't think he fits the new regime. I personally like Manuel and Wilson but hey its a crapshoot. I think Swope brings a unique addition to our team as we don't have a very good slot receiver, I really like the 6th/7th round depth at RB guys like Dennis Johnson and George Winn, and your weaknesses on McDonald are the reason he scares me. I see Joseph Fauria bringing much the same talent with less of a draft value.

I never said we don't need playmakers, I said we need quality depth. I don't want to draft potential superstars, I want to draft solid football players.


Very nice! It's hard to retort this because:

1) I don't like Bray's attitude much either & I'd rather not draft a QB. But the value is there. I had to take CB/FS Amerson out to put Bray in which was really tough to do. It's just what I feel the Raiders will do not what I want them to do.

2) I really like most of the prospects you brought up except Fauria. I was high on him once but his pedestrian 40 time makes him slightly faster than a brick wall and his 17 bench reps suggest that criticisms about him not being a blocker and not strong as an in-line blocker might have some validation.

3) I really like Swope as a slot WR. If Swopes had return experience he'd be a Jacoby Ford clone.
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Raiders 2014 Draft (check out my draft review tell me what you think)
Mancrush 2014: DE Clowney, WR Watkins, OT Robinson, LB Shazier, FS Brooks, TE ASJ, OG Jackson, WR Janis, OT Lucas, OT Tiny
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raiderfan19


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Love the trade, I could live with Richarson, but we have far greater needs than a QB, followed by TE, RB and WR. All the players you took I like just not all of em for us. Of the 3 offensive sill guys I like Dobson the most. Secondary amd end have to be addressed early.
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Silver&Black88


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2013 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like it, don't love it.
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reddevil


Joined: 23 Feb 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2013 3:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pretty good job. Wouldn't be too disappointed if it turned out like this. Only gripe would be the 5 back to back offensive players after the Richardson pick. Would like to see at least one of the 2nd/3rd round picks to be on defense - probably on a DB or two where there are a load that would come straight in and be upgrades on what we currently have.
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big_palooka


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2013 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Baggabonez wrote:
macklemore wrote:
I love Sheldon Richardson, Christine Michael and Vance McDonald picks so props for that. I'm not a fan of the Tyler Bray pick in the second round. I don't think we need to draft a QB that high this year, An offensive or defensive lineman with that pick would have made this an A+ mock. Also, If you drafted a RT or OG in the second you could have gone Devin Taylor in the 4th.


I don't want Bray either. My intuition is that McKenzie doesn't want to be locked into drafting a QB in 2014 and in the 2nd the value will be there. The main folks who won't like this are Bridgewater or Pryor folks but I respect that.


Agree. Reggie knows as the QB goes, so goes the franchise.

I can see them adding a QB in this draft, but not that early. If they add additional picks on a trade, I could see a QB in the 3rd. If they can't find a trade partner, then it will be the 4th or 5th.
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