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broncosfan_101


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

paul-mac wrote:
The thing is, though, you can only take what's on offer, at the end of the day.

One thing only a selected few will ever know is whether Derek Wolfe was the guy at 31, or even at 25, or if there's a guy that we missed out on by moving back.

If Wolfe was the guy then getting anything extra is a bonus, if not then it's not such a good move.

Coincidentally, the pick ended up being Omar Bolden, so if Derek Wolfe was the guy at 25, then we've basically manipulated the draft into getting ourselves a free player in Bolden. Even if Wolfe wasn't going to be the pick, then maybe it's still a win, as Derek Wolfe and Omar Bolden are better than just, say, for argument's sake, Dont'a Hightower who was taken at 25.


I hear what you're saying here, for sure. And it probably turned out pretty well this time. But the problem is that, 1. it's quite possible that it could've (should've) turned out even better, and 2. it shows that, if Elway keeps undervaluing his picks like this, at some point it WILL cost us.
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paul-mac


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Conversely, when we traded down in 2011 with the 49ers, we fleeced them.

That almost never happens, teams moving down getting the good side of a deal. That trade was absolutely necessary as McDaniels had flipped most of our middle rounders that year, and it really made it a good draft for us in my opinion.



Incidentally we also won the Ronnie Hillman trade(Traded a 4th rounder to move up in the third round), and lost the Julius Thomas trade(Traded a 6th rounder to move up from the early 5th to the late 4th, but also regained a 7th rounder to complete the deal)
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paul-mac


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 12:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncosfan_101 wrote:
paul-mac wrote:
The thing is, though, you can only take what's on offer, at the end of the day.

One thing only a selected few will ever know is whether Derek Wolfe was the guy at 31, or even at 25, or if there's a guy that we missed out on by moving back.

If Wolfe was the guy then getting anything extra is a bonus, if not then it's not such a good move.

Coincidentally, the pick ended up being Omar Bolden, so if Derek Wolfe was the guy at 25, then we've basically manipulated the draft into getting ourselves a free player in Bolden. Even if Wolfe wasn't going to be the pick, then maybe it's still a win, as Derek Wolfe and Omar Bolden are better than just, say, for argument's sake, Dont'a Hightower who was taken at 25.


I hear what you're saying here, for sure. And it probably turned out pretty well this time. But the problem is that, 1. it's quite possible that it could've (should've) turned out even better, and 2. it shows that, if Elway keeps undervaluing his picks like this, at some point it WILL cost us.



I don't know if Elway is undervaluing picks, but certainly it could be worrying if he's seen as the sucker at the table by other GM's around the league.

IMO, Fox and Del Rio were pounding the table for Wolfe last year and Elway decided that he could get him later on anyway, so it was a case of taking the best offer. Who knows, Elway might have asked New England for a third round pick and been told to F off by Bill, similarly we probably asked Tampa for the 4th rounder straight up, if not the third, however Elway really felt we could get our guy 10 picks later than we were standing so really, any return on those 10 picks is better than reaching, if you get what I mean.

Interesting thing to point out is that we no longer have Brian Xanders working the phones on draft weekend this year. It's been noted that throughout both of the last two regimes he's the anchorman on a lot of our trades, knows trading formulae really well. Maybe we won't see any trades this year without Xanders at the helm.
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broncos67


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 1:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I highly doubt that Brian Xanders existence is what precludes us from making a trade lol. The guy only made calls because there was nothing else for him to do.

There will be four (five?) voices in the room come draft day who matter, and one of them will be on the phone. Those guys are:

John Elway, John Fox, Matt Russell, Jack Del Rio, and Adam Gase.

I'm guessing Russell or Elway works trades. I wouldn't worry about Xanders absence. It takes two to tango anyway. If a trade is going to be made, it'ls going to be made.
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AnAngryAmerican


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 1:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncos67 wrote:
I highly doubt that Brian Xanders existence is what precludes us from making a trade lol. The guy only made calls because there was nothing else for him to do.

There will be four (five?) voices in the room come draft day who matter, and one of them will be on the phone. Those guys are:

John Elway, John Fox, Matt Russell, Jack Del Rio, and Adam Gase.

I'm guessing Russell or Elway works trades. I wouldn't worry about Xanders absence. It takes two to tango anyway. If a trade is going to be made, it'ls going to be made.

Yeah. LOL at the suggestion that Brian Xanders did anything of significance here. I think the only thing that changes with Xanders gone is that it will be an intern who will have to get the drinks and snacks to Elway & Co in the war room next weekend.
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Donut


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncosfan_101 wrote:
Donut wrote:
Quote:
^ No. 29: Baltimore → Minnesota (D). Baltimore traded this selection to Minnesota for their second (35th) and fourth round (98th) selections this year.

Quote:
No. 25: Denver → New England (D). Denver traded this selection to New England for their first (31st) and fourth round (126th) selections this year

Its about the same.

Donut wrote:
He got pretty much identical value as the Ravens did that yr. If he could've gotten more he would have.


Going back a bit, but this is so false. Obviously the trade value chart is just a guide, but if we talk about this in 'points', we moved down 120 points, and only received 46 points for it. Baltimore moved down 90 points and received 108 points. It's not even close to the same. Not even close.

The DIFFERENCE between the returns is worth a mid-to-high 4th rounder.
And get this: after our next trade down from 31 to 36 (which we used the pick we got in the first trade), we STILL didn't get a pick as valuable as the one Baltimore got. We moved down from 25 to 36 and only got 101 in return. Baltimore moved from 29 to 35 and got 98. That's HORRIBLE for Elway. He got fleeced.

It's only one draft, so it's not necessarily a trend yet, but he did a terrible job and he needs to learn from his mistakes.

Guide works as an avg trend in drafts but this was in general a terrible class. Most people looked at it and a huge range of guys that are similar players and not wanting to move up. I think the TB deal was a bad one. The NE I think was pretty decent. Draft value chart looks worse for most part on teams moving up because of how little people wanted to. No one wanted to give up a future pick and no one wanted to over pay to move up. This class and last yrs class really arent draft trading down favorable imo.

paul-mac wrote:
Coincidentally, the pick ended up being Omar Bolden, so if Derek Wolfe was the guy at 25, then we've basically manipulated the draft into getting ourselves a free player in Bolden. Even if Wolfe wasn't going to be the pick, then maybe it's still a win, as Derek Wolfe and Omar Bolden are better than just, say, for argument's sake, Dont'a Hightower who was taken at 25.

Its not a win if the guy they were manipulating the draft for wasn't there. The point is to pick up free picks and get your guy. Not manipulate and then take the next best thing. I assume Wolfe was the target though.
broncosfan_101 wrote:

I hear what you're saying here, for sure. And it probably turned out pretty well this time. But the problem is that, 1. it's quite possible that it could've (should've) turned out even better, and 2. it shows that, if Elway keeps undervaluing his picks like this, at some point it WILL cost us.

The market on picks was just lower. Noone was really getting what they wanted. The deals look awful w/o looking at the quality of the class. There were such a wide range of guys of the similar caliber separated by a round.
paul-mac wrote:
Who knows, Elway might have asked New England for a
third round pick and been told to F off by Bill, similarly we probably asked

Completely irrelevant but Nick Caserio was the one that got all the credit for the trades after the draft.

But as for war room how does Elway operate it? I know different GMs have different rules like Pioli used to limit who was in there and wouldn't allow scouts in(i thought this was kinda stupid) and Demitroff was allowing investors, friends of the owner, scouts and as long as they didnt cause any issues it was chill.
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paul-mac


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Elway's buzzword is "inclusive", he wants to get as many qualified voices in there as possible.

Obviously Elway and Fox make the final decisions but Elway strikes me as the guy who wants to take on as much good advice as he can.
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broncosfan_101


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Donut wrote:
The market on picks was just lower. Noone was really getting what they wanted.


Baltimore did.

Again what I'm saying is, the precedent that this could set is dangerous for Elway. If he's going to lose value on draft day trades, I would MUCH rather see him do it on trades up in the draft as opposed to down. There should be a premium attached to the price for getting YOUR guy, as opposed to moving down when you're choosing between a few 'meh' candidates.
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AnAngryAmerican


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

paul-mac wrote:
Elway strikes me as the guy who wants to take on as much good advice as he can.

Absolutely. That's what any good executive does, whether it be in sports, business, public service, etc.

Heck the General Manager at my bar takes input from her bartenders, top servers and some regular customers before making major decisions. She doesn't always listen to us but at least she gauges our opinions.
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AntiSuperstar


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

paul-mac wrote:
Pierce is like the ultimate meat and potatoes back. He's a poor man's Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis


This is nonsense. Benjarvus Green-Ellis has no jets and struggles to take the ball outside, plus he has poor vision. Knowshon Moreno is similar to him. Bernard Pierce conversely can take it outside and in fact is particularly comfortable running stretch plays and has great vision. He's nothing like Green-Ellis.
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broncos67


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 7:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AntiSuperstar wrote:
paul-mac wrote:
Pierce is like the ultimate meat and potatoes back. He's a poor man's Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis


This is nonsense. Benjarvus Green-Ellis has no jets and struggles to take the ball outside, plus he has poor vision. Knowshon Moreno is similar to him. Bernard Pierce conversely can take it outside and in fact is particularly comfortable running stretch plays and has great vision. He's nothing like Green-Ellis.


I was going to comment on this, then I just didn't (paul-mac, not you Anti). Green-Ellis has one gear. Pierce doesn't, he has more, he gets through holes quickly and he can turn the corner. Pierce doesn't have elite speed, but that doesn't make him BJGE
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jlhawkins9


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We should have just taken Martin at 25 or 31. Traded back up to get Wolfe Wink

Usually days before the draft teams call and lineup the compensation on a trade up and down so they got an idea of what the cost will be.

I wonder how high up we have called for..? I doubt anywhere below 15. Wish there was a player that would be instant key player, like Atl did for Julio Jones.
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jlhawkins9


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also wish we could find a partner to trade our 2nd for next years first ala Alphonso Smith. Trade back mid 2nd pick up a 3/4ish pick and roll with it. We still have $$ to spend in FA and we don't have many holes. When you have 2 first you can do whatever you want. I was always jealous of how NE worked having 2 1st every year and if they didn't want to use it they would trade it for next years and a pick. You never know when you make a trade like that and you get you lucky and it turns into a top 5-10 pick.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 21, 2013 1:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jlhawkins9 - I love your avatar but it's a little big. The allowable size for avatars is 80x80. We're amenable within a few pixels here and there but 160x113 is little too far outside the acceptable range. Please get re-sized when you can. Thanks!
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Mile High


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2013 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is a theory:

In this years draft it is no secret that the middle of the pack talent is not much better than the talent late in the 1st round, and if you just read up on what teams are doing and thinking, a lot of teams are entertaining trade backs.

I think this could be an ideal year to trade up, as I think we will be able to do it for ridiculously cheap....I dunno just a thought.
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