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Last years trade down
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b_rent87


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2013 5:39 pm    Post subject: Last years trade down Reply with quote

Given the possibility Denver may move down again out of the first looking at last year I don't believe the front office got as much value as they could have do you agree, and do you believe they could get more this year even picking later?
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PackAtBroncos07


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2013 5:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm driving to Milwaukee again this year for the 1st round and for my sake they better not trade out of it again. Luckily I don't have to come back for class here on Friday this time so it doesn't really matter but still. I'd like to see us make a pick on the 1st day.
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b_rent87


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2013 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PackAtBroncos07 wrote:
I'm driving to Milwaukee again this year for the 1st round and for my sake they better not trade out of it again. Luckily I don't have to come back for class here on Friday this time so it doesn't really matter but still. I'd like to see us make a pick on the 1st day.
So would I but if there is a cluster of players with similar value and someone didn't slip to is I would like to pick up more picks
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Donut


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2013 7:30 pm    Post subject: Re: Last years trade down Reply with quote

b_rent87 wrote:
Given the possibility Denver may move down again out of the first looking at last year I don't believe the front office got as much value as they could have do you agree, and do you believe they could get more this year even picking later?

I dont think they could've. If they could they would've done it. No team last yr wanted to trade future picks in that class and that will remain true for this yr.
Trading up was cheaper because the differential in talent wasn't as much in the class. I dont think they'll get more this yr. This class in general is worse and should net about the same.
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b_rent87


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2013 8:03 pm    Post subject: Re: Last years trade down Reply with quote

Donut wrote:
b_rent87 wrote:
Given the possibility Denver may move down again out of the first looking at last year I don't believe the front office got as much value as they could have do you agree, and do you believe they could get more this year even picking later?

I dont think they could've. If they could they would've done it. No team last yr wanted to trade future picks in that class and that will remain true for this yr.
Trading up was cheaper because the differential in talent wasn't as much in the class. I dont think they'll get more this yr. This class in general is worse and should net about the same.
I thought I remember the Ravens getting more and picking in front of us. What I meant was I don't think management did as well as others did or could of done in gaining what they should of for the move down
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Donut


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2013 8:28 pm    Post subject: Re: Last years trade down Reply with quote

b_rent87 wrote:
Donut wrote:
b_rent87 wrote:
Given the possibility Denver may move down again out of the first looking at last year I don't believe the front office got as much value as they could have do you agree, and do you believe they could get more this year even picking later?

I dont think they could've. If they could they would've done it. No team last yr wanted to trade future picks in that class and that will remain true for this yr.
Trading up was cheaper because the differential in talent wasn't as much in the class. I dont think they'll get more this yr. This class in general is worse and should net about the same.
I thought I remember the Ravens getting more and picking in front of us. What I meant was I don't think management did as well as others did or could of done in gaining what they should of for the move down

Quote:
^ No. 29: Baltimore → Minnesota (D). Baltimore traded this selection to Minnesota for their second (35th) and fourth round (98th) selections this year.

Quote:
No. 25: Denver → New England (D). Denver traded this selection to New England for their first (31st) and fourth round (126th) selections this year

Its about the same.

The Patriots also noticeably got a lot less in trades. I think we traded 2nd for a 3rd and 5th and usually that should net 2 3rds. Also IIRC no deals dipped into future picks. These 2 classes are not liked very much.
The lack of talent in these last 2 classes is the reason imo Patriots went against the trade down to trade up and dealt/attempted to deal away every pick this yr
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bobdevine


Joined: 24 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2013 8:50 pm    Post subject: Re: Last years trade down Reply with quote

b_rent87 wrote:
Given the possibility Denver may move down again out of the first looking at last year I don't believe the front office got as much value as they could have do you agree, and do you believe they could get more this year even picking later?


I think the Broncos will trade down from #28. Elway had an interview this week where he said the 2013 draft didn't have a lot of top talent.

That opens the question about the worth of draft picks. For years everyone relied on the old draft values that the Cowboys first used decades ago. A recent analysis produced a new chart:
http://www.footballperspective.com/yet-another-draft-value-chart/

Based on the new chart, the Broncos got a great trade in 2012 when it traded down to pick Wolfe.
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copeland


Joined: 02 Apr 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 12:19 am    Post subject: Re: Last years trade down Reply with quote

bobdevine wrote:
b_rent87 wrote:
Given the possibility Denver may move down again out of the first looking at last year I don't believe the front office got as much value as they could have do you agree, and do you believe they could get more this year even picking later?


I think the Broncos will trade down from #28. Elway had an interview this week where he said the 2013 draft didn't have a lot of top talent.

That opens the question about the worth of draft picks. For years everyone relied on the old draft values that the Cowboys first used decades ago. A recent analysis produced a new chart:
http://www.footballperspective.com/yet-another-draft-value-chart/

Based on the new chart, the Broncos got a great trade in 2012 when it traded down to pick Wolfe.


The trade values almost had to come down given the new rookie contracts. So I can see that it may be tough for guys to get their head around a new value chart.

Also I think one of the things that gets lost in the suffle is simply the value of getting out of a pick that you don't really want to make. What I mean by that is, if you hold pick 25, and there is no one at that pick that you think makes sense, or may be a reach, there is value there for you to just get out of that pick. To me it's better to take a bit less in the trade to save yourself picking a player that represents bad value in that spot. Don't know if that all makes sense?
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b_rent87


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 12:51 am    Post subject: Re: Last years trade down Reply with quote

copeland wrote:
bobdevine wrote:
b_rent87 wrote:
Given the possibility Denver may move down again out of the first looking at last year I don't believe the front office got as much value as they could have do you agree, and do you believe they could get more this year even picking later?


I think the Broncos will trade down from #28. Elway had an interview this week where he said the 2013 draft didn't have a lot of top talent.

That opens the question about the worth of draft picks. For years everyone relied on the old draft values that the Cowboys first used decades ago. A recent analysis produced a new chart:
http://www.footballperspective.com/yet-another-draft-value-chart/

Based on the new chart, the Broncos got a great trade in 2012 when it traded down to pick Wolfe.


The trade values almost had to come down given the new rookie contracts. So I can see that it may be tough for guys to get their head around a new value chart.

Also I think one of the things that gets lost in the suffle is simply the value of getting out of a pick that you don't really want to make. What I mean by that is, if you hold pick 25, and there is no one at that pick that you think makes sense, or may be a reach, there is value there for you to just get out of that pick. To me it's better to take a bit less in the trade to save yourself picking a player that represents bad value in that spot. Don't know if that all makes sense?
It makes sense. If we trade down I just hope we get comparable value to other teams moving down I guess I have this feeling Elway and co are okay with taking less to do exactly what you mentioned but I want us to get market value
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b_rent87


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 12:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I also just see New England fleece teams in trades year in and year out and really want our management to get on that level Elway has done a good job here but I can't crown him until I see more value in the trades department. It's my own personal view on the situation. I felt we could have been able to muster a late third in a trade down instead of a late fourth but I could be wrong
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AKRNA


Joined: 28 May 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 12:58 am    Post subject: Re: Last years trade down Reply with quote

copeland wrote:
bobdevine wrote:
b_rent87 wrote:
Given the possibility Denver may move down again out of the first looking at last year I don't believe the front office got as much value as they could have do you agree, and do you believe they could get more this year even picking later?


I think the Broncos will trade down from #28. Elway had an interview this week where he said the 2013 draft didn't have a lot of top talent.

That opens the question about the worth of draft picks. For years everyone relied on the old draft values that the Cowboys first used decades ago. A recent analysis produced a new chart:
http://www.footballperspective.com/yet-another-draft-value-chart/

Based on the new chart, the Broncos got a great trade in 2012 when it traded down to pick Wolfe.


The trade values almost had to come down given the new rookie contracts. So I can see that it may be tough for guys to get their head around a new value chart.

Also I think one of the things that gets lost in the suffle is simply the value of getting out of a pick that you don't really want to make. What I mean by that is, if you hold pick 25, and there is no one at that pick that you think makes sense, or may be a reach, there is value there for you to just get out of that pick. To me it's better to take a bit less in the trade to save yourself picking a player that represents bad value in that spot. Don't know if that all makes sense?


It does make sense. Basically, the value of pick #28 depends on who wants it. If another team is desperate to move up to 28 the value goes up. If we're desperate to trade down the value goes down.

Pretty much free market principles in action.
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b_rent87


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 1:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah I don't like the new chart being the team trading down being the team trading up I would. In comparison trading down from 28 to 46 adds pick 136 in the new chart. The old chart a trade down from 28 to 46 adds pick 74 a huge difference. So as the likely moving down team I like the old chart of course but I know the wage scale has changed all of this
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broncos67


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The chart is a guide and I personally don't think teams use it much when considering trades. I do, however, think Denver could've gotten much more than they did last year. I think Elway got a bit fleeced as a new GM. We still picked up talented players, but I would hope if we trade down this year we receive better compensation.
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copeland


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncos67 wrote:
The chart is a guide and I personally don't think teams use it much when considering trades. I do, however, think Denver could've gotten much more than they did last year. I think Elway got a bit fleeced as a new GM. We still picked up talented players, but I would hope if we trade down this year we receive better compensation.


I hear ya, but I think AKRNA hit nail on the head. Elway seems to have wanted out of that spot worse than he wanted to stay. I have no problem with that cause it shows me that, in order to stick to the plan in place, he'll do what it takes to make it happen.
I guess what I'm trying to say is I like that he has a plan, and will sacrifice a few spots to ultimately put the plan in place.
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broncos67


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

copeland wrote:
broncos67 wrote:
The chart is a guide and I personally don't think teams use it much when considering trades. I do, however, think Denver could've gotten much more than they did last year. I think Elway got a bit fleeced as a new GM. We still picked up talented players, but I would hope if we trade down this year we receive better compensation.


I hear ya, but I think AKRNA hit nail on the head. Elway seems to have wanted out of that spot worse than he wanted to stay. I have no problem with that cause it shows me that, in order to stick to the plan in place, he'll do what it takes to make it happen.
I guess what I'm trying to say is I like that he has a plan, and will sacrifice a few spots to ultimately put the plan in place.


That may be true, but part of trading down is maximizing value. When you start to give the illusion that you'll just trade down for the hell of it, you become a sucker. The last thing you want to do in the arena where teams are built, is sacrifice anything just to stick to something by the book. If there were no other options to trade down, fine, but if you have the opportunity to pick up better quality picks, you better do it.
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