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IronMike84


Joined: 17 Jun 2009
Posts: 7181
PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2013 8:42 pm    Post subject: Re: Hmmmm..... Reply with quote

ChicagoAl wrote:
Harvin did not score a lot of points, he averages FIVE tds per yr, Knox averaged four.

Incorrect. Knox averaged 4.33 TDs per year. Harvin has averaged 7.25.
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...internet mock drafts, which have ridiculously become the measuring stick for where players are "supposed" to go.
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Athelite


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2013 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

just had a random thought, I remember when I got excited about Jaquin Iglesias just because he was the first receiver we drafted early in forever. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA wow
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IronMike84


Joined: 17 Jun 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2013 10:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Athelite wrote:
just had a random thought, I remember when I got excited about Jaquin Iglesias just because he was the first receiver we drafted early in forever. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA wow

I liked Iglesias as a possession receiver. I did not like the idea of Massaquoi at 49.

I just revisted the list of players taken between 49 (traded) and 68 (Jarron Gilbert) in that draft and now I feel physically ill.
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ChicagoAl


Joined: 10 Jan 2008
Posts: 8018
PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:01 pm    Post subject: Re: Hmmmm..... Reply with quote

IronMike84 wrote:
ChicagoAl wrote:
Harvin did not score a lot of points, he averages FIVE tds per yr, Knox averaged four.

Incorrect. Knox averaged 4.33 TDs per year. Harvin has averaged 7.25.
I was just talking about his receiving. Is a WR who averages 5 tds per a great WR? No. Is he a good WR? Not terribly.

Is 7.5 tds (20-5-5) from all sources great? No only good.

And he is the best of this sort.


Last edited by ChicagoAl on Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
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ChicagoAl


Joined: 10 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

blair18 wrote:
not that it makes a huge difference in the debate, but Desean falling to the second round wasn't all about size. He had character issues that caused teams to look other directions.
I think there are still concerns in that area. But even were he a first round choice it would be the only one, though he is taller at 175, in forever.
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ChicagoAl


Joined: 10 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:09 pm    Post subject: Re: Hmmmm..... Reply with quote

GOGRIESE wrote:
ChicagoAl wrote:
GOGRIESE wrote:
ChicagoAl wrote:
Everywhere I have stated this no one can refute it. Look at the numbers. There is no question Knox was the better deal.

As to any "recent change" aiding Austin's case that is nothing but baloney. Small speedy guys have always been intriguing but actually now the case AGAINST taking them high is even stronger since the other players are much bigger now. So they are staying the same size while the rest of the league is getting bigger. Not a good trend for the little guys.


Oh my sweet lord. I am so tempted to post this in the NFL comparisons room. But I want you to do it and make a fool out of yourself.

Small speedy guys who ALSO can play WR,RB and slot. They play AT these positions but none very well. This is why they are not scoring double digit tds. So yes it is a change. There is a reason why people have him going around 15 now. People have him going high because of big dreams like Hill last year. I was a sucker for him, too. Of course he weighed 40 more than Austin and was just as fast. Teams want to score points. He can catch,break tackles and is extremely versatile. Im sorry I have to keep telling you things you should already know. You aren't telling me anything other than that you THINK he will do this that or the other. He won't score a lot of points. Harvin did not score a lot of points, he averages FIVE tds per yr, Knox averaged four.

As for none of them being taken in the first round. You think knowing what we know now about them that they would? None mentioned are as small as Austin and none have been scoring a lot of points. 1 was just traded for a 1st round pick+. Yeah, what would they have trade for a guy who averaged Seven tds a yr? Their whole draft? It was a pathetically stupid trade and will be the downfall of the GM when Harvin goes his way, as he will. Emery, on the other hand, made a BRILLIANT trade for a REAL points scorer.. Another is coming off an 80 catch season. Thats why he is being projected so high. Teams are trying to gain an advantage over the defense. Having someone like that is a huge advantage. Superman just tried to explain this. Gee, what an astonishing bit of information, I could have never come up with such a brilliant concept. I am so thankful I have all you geniuses to point out things I could never understand.

The reality is players this small don't provide any major advantage and don't last long enough to be worth it if they actually can provide an advantage.


....here's just one highly respected person who watches more film than both of us. Saying exactly what alot of people have been trying to push into your head.
"fantastic fantastic slot weapon, will be highly effective in NFL. Current NFL contact rules will nake him even more effective"

Benjamin Allbright ‏@NFLDraftMonster 15s
@ImDaBaron NFL changing with contact rules, size less an issue. Smaller, speedier guys being take earlier and earleir
https://twitter.com/NFLDraftMonster
Oh, now I am convinced. Rolling Eyes


Go post it in the NFL Draft room. Find out how right you are Laughing
As I have told you I have made my case there and actually had more people supporting what I said than here. No one refuted anything I said and many of those disagreeing with me understood the points made. There is much less support for him as a high draft pick than here. And since when is opinion there of any consequence to anyone?

It is also interesting that the mock draft being run there has him going past the Bears so apparently those voting on the Bears choice don't want/think appropriate him.
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IronMike84


Joined: 17 Jun 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:11 pm    Post subject: Re: Hmmmm..... Reply with quote

ChicagoAl wrote:
Is a WR who averages 5 tds per a great WR? No. Is he a good WR? Not terribly.

Says the guy who was impressed with Dane Sanzenbacher's whopping 3 TDs.
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ChicagoAl


Joined: 10 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:14 pm    Post subject: Re: Hmmmm..... Reply with quote

IronMike84 wrote:
ChicagoAl wrote:
Is a WR who averages 5 tds per a great WR? No. Is he a good WR? Not terribly.

Says the guy who was impressed with Dane Sanzenbacher's whopping 3 TDs.
We spent a 1st round pick on him, did we? Or was it a 2d? Or was it a ....NOTHIING?
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GOGRIESE


Joined: 04 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Really which people Al?

Since you like using PFT
"According to Profootballtalk.com, "some" people around the league believe West Virginia WR Tavon Austin's over-under in April's draft is pick No. 15.
The Rams pick at No. 16 and the feeling around the league is ostensibly that Austin wouldn't get past their selection. The Saints have the 15th pick. New Orleans seems more likely to focus on defense in the first round, but could be stationed in a bit of a "hotspot" for a team like the pick-rich 49ers to trade into. Pre-draft rumors have San Francisco interested in a move up for Austin"
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/8402/tavon-austin

I just had a guy who does this for a living refute you.....sooo



"Can you explain that?"
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IronMike84


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:21 pm    Post subject: Re: Hmmmm..... Reply with quote

ChicagoAl wrote:
IronMike84 wrote:
ChicagoAl wrote:
Is a WR who averages 5 tds per a great WR? No. Is he a good WR? Not terribly.

Says the guy who was impressed with Dane Sanzenbacher's whopping 3 TDs.
We spent a 1st round pick on him, did we? Or was it a 2d? Or was it a ....NOTHIING?

Ah, okay. Go into the Lions forum and tell them how their former 1st round pick Calvin Johnson is "not terribly" good because he "only" scored 5 TDs last season. Fitzgerald had 4; he must suck too.
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Bowler1215


Joined: 28 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I doubt nothings changed. Most of the guys we signed are for 1 year deals, so OT/OG, LB are pretty high on our big board. IMO all the signings say we're trading pick 20 and/or 50 to get a 3rd rounder and possibly a mod round pick.
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Superman(DH23)


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:14 am    Post subject: Re: Hmmmm..... Reply with quote

ChicagoAl wrote:
Superman(DH23) wrote:
ChicagoAl wrote:
GOGRIESE wrote:
ChicagoAl wrote:
GOGRIESE wrote:
ChicagoAl wrote:
GOGRIESE wrote:
ChicagoAl wrote:

Anyone drafting Austin has to be aware that he cannot be a real WR just a Gimmick Guy. There is no way to justify such a high pick for a guy of his size. These are drafted third round and lower.


Stop saying this because just about nobody shares this opinion with you. Its an opinion based on no facts.
Look at the way these guys are used. They aren't real WRs. Hester can do this kind of thing.


He can do more than a "real" WR. Thats the whole point.
If he had as good a rookie year as Johnny Knox I would publicly say it was not a bad choice.
But we drafted Johnny in the fifth round.

We do not need to spend that high a choice on a Gimmick Guy which is what he is to me whether it meets your approval or not. If we took him in the third I would think it worth the speculation and effort to use him to keep him healthy. That will not be easy.


Im starting to think you dont know what gimmick means. Explain to me how he is just a gimmick guy.
He will run special types of plays not your ordinary WR plays since he would not be likely to take the pounding of play after play. He will be limited to special packages which can take advantage of his speed and which must be structured to protect him. He won't be running across the middle or called on to go up against safeties and LBs primed to knock the crap out of him. He has to stay away from contact if he wants to survive.

Why do you think guys like him are historically almost never drafted in the first round? Are all the GMs listening to me and my irrational ideas?
How bout a CB who is the exact same size as Tavon Austin but is also one of the top 5 CBs in the league, does he hold up to the pounding? How bout the PitBull that is Tim Jennings, how's he doing? Also I have to agree w/ what somebody else said, Austin's ability to minimize contact is Barry Sanders-esque. You aren't going to see him take blow up shots, b/c of that ability, and w/ Austin's speed, COD, quickness, it really doesn't matter how fast the opposing defense is, Austin is faster.
What CB weighs 173 #? Tim Jennings weighs AT LEAST 10 more than Austin and was not drafted in the first round. He was drafted where guys that small should be and generally are drafted, not in the first round. He was drafted where he was because of his speed which was faster than Austin.

Jenning has also had a very up and down career in the pros and was not considered worth keeping by the Colts so he was not worth the second round pick used for him. He was also benched in 2011 because he was so crappy.

Barry Sanders was also at least 20 pounds heavier than Austin.

Please show me a successful NFL player at >175 lbs and show me one who was drafted in the first round. None of those proposed as equivalents have been, in fact, equivalents.
Ever hear of a guy by the name of Brandon Flowers? 5'8" 175, very early 2nd round pick of the chiefs, consensus top 5 CB in this league. The fact you think Tim Jennings is faster than Austin (who ran a 4.2 at the combine compared to Jennings 4.4) just shows you have no idea what you are talking about. And if you think that 10 lbs makes that big of difference, I really have nothing else to say. Austin is going to be a 1st round pick, and he's going to be a playmaker.

BTW, you mentioned Emery's trade for Marshall and scoring. This was only the 2nd year that Marshall scored 10+ TDs in a season, and he averages, you guessed it, 7 TDs per year, the same as Harvin. Now there are other problems w/ Harvin that makes the trade questionable, but his ability to put the ball in the endzone is not really one of them.
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Superman(DH23)


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:
Madmike90 wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
Madmike90 wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
Before someone gets mad at me I will clarify my position on the LBs.

Ogeltree is the superior PLAYER, when you only factor in what they can do on the field.

Brown is the superior PROSPECT, when you factor in everything in the draft process and off the field.

I would pick Brown if I was making the pick.


Not IMO he isn't.


But you agree that it is a widely held belief, by experts and publications, that Ogeltree is the highest rated MLB in the draft?

Again I would take Brown, but there is a huge part of me that sees Phil Emery having to comparable LBs, and I don't think it is unfair to say they are comparable, and he goes with the bigger more fluid athlete.


I would agree that most have Ogletree rated higher…but I would strongly suggest that ranking is based on what he could be and not what he is right now…potential is one thing but his play right now doesn’t warrant that ranking ahead of Brown or Minter IMO…

Also we have seen plenty of occasions where NFL personal don’t agree with the experts…I think there is a strong chance Ogletree goes before Brown…I just hope that isn’t to us.


Absolutley the expert are wrong all the time.

But we saw with the Shea pick that potential plays into the assessment a significant amount. We are going to convert a 3-4 OLB who was a late 1st round value into a pass rushing DE because he was incredibly fast and had a ton of potential.

I am just mentally preparing myself for the fact that he could very we be our pick based on need, value, potential and athletic ability. I would not love the pick, but I would feel better knowing that the off field issues went through an Emery screening process.

I think Brown and Ogeltree both project to being 3 down starting 4-3 MLBs and I think Minter and Te'o are best served in 3-4 defense where coverage limitations can be concealed.
Shea was not a 3-4 OLB, he was a 4-3 DE who would occassionally stand up (similar to how he's been used here thus far). He was projected as a 3-4 OLB b/c of the comparisons to Mike Vrabel.
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chisoxguy7


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:47 am    Post subject: Re: Hmmmm..... Reply with quote

IronMike84 wrote:
ChicagoAl wrote:
IronMike84 wrote:
ChicagoAl wrote:
Is a WR who averages 5 tds per a great WR? No. Is he a good WR? Not terribly.

Says the guy who was impressed with Dane Sanzenbacher's whopping 3 TDs.
We spent a 1st round pick on him, did we? Or was it a 2d? Or was it a ....NOTHIING?

Ah, okay. Go into the Lions forum and tell them how their former 1st round pick Calvin Johnson is "not terribly" good because he "only" scored 5 TDs last season. Fitzgerald had 4; he must suck too.


Fitzgerald also caught the ball about four times last year.
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ChicagoAl


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GOGRIESE wrote:
Really which people Al?

Since you like using PFT
"According to Profootballtalk.com, "some" people around the league believe West Virginia WR Tavon Austin's over-under in April's draft is pick No. 15.
The Rams pick at No. 16 and the feeling around the league is ostensibly that Austin wouldn't get past their selection. The Saints have the 15th pick. New Orleans seems more likely to focus on defense in the first round, but could be stationed in a bit of a "hotspot" for a team like the pick-rich 49ers to trade into. Pre-draft rumors have San Francisco interested in a move up for Austin"
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/8402/tavon-austin

I just had a guy who does this for a living refute you.....sooo



"Can you explain that?"
PFW Draft magazine's, Nolan Nawrocki, did not have Austin drafted in the first round. Elsewhere in the publication he is rated a 1/2d pick and the third best WR of a class without real elite WRs.

How do "rumors" refute anything from anyone? What do rumors tell us about reality? At least an opinion can be pinned down to someone.

In any case SF is the one team which could afford to take him and trade up to do it. It has more draft picks than it can realistically use. How many are going to make that team? It can gamble as much as it wants without worry about making a critical mistake. And that is exactly what Austin is, a huge gamble - the biggest in the draft in the first round. Please Lord, let Austin drop to us and SF trade for him, please. I would be as happy as a clam.

I know some of the Rams fans on FF think they will take him but they know no more about it than Bears fans know what Emery will do. Do you really see Jeff Fisher making that big a gamble with 16? They need a lot more than Austin will provide to keep pace in that division, a LOT more.
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