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Lessons To Learn From 2012 Playoffs And What It Means For DC
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The_Slamman


Joined: 06 Feb 2005
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Location: Las Vegas, NV
PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 1:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Question 5

Without looking it up, do you think sacks make a significant difference between winning and losing? What % of teams that won the sack battle ultimately won the game?

Closest Answer

Ace5 wrote:
Third down sacks make a huge difference. Sacks? Not so much. Gimmie an even 50%, just cause a split shows no correlation at all.


Answer

Teams that won the sack battle actually won 71% of the games. There were 4 ties where both teams got the exact same number of sacks. Apart from those 4 games, the team that finished with the most sacks was 5-2.


I'm a little surprised by many of the answers given which leads me to believe that I probably asked the question poorly. For example, if teams that won the sack battle only projected to win 10-40% of the time... why would teams even try to get sacks?

I'm not going to read too much into this stat regardless, but I do think it shows that it is important to get after the QB. Think of it this way... The team that had more sacks on the opposing QB had a better winning % than the teams with home field advantage. The home teams finished 6-4 or 60%. The team with more sacks had a 71% winning %.


Last edited by The_Slamman on Mon Mar 25, 2013 1:59 am; edited 1 time in total
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The_Slamman


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 1:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is the question that we've all been waiting for... Because it has already been the topic of some debate, I kindly ask that nobody look it up as I think it will lead to great discussion.

Question 6

Without looking it up...

In the playoffs, what % of teams that won the TURNOVER battle ultimately won the game???

Please give your thoughts behind your answer as well!!!
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CowboysTilIDie


Joined: 09 Jan 2012
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Location: Amarillo, TX
PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 7:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The_Slamman wrote:
Here is the question that we've all been waiting for... Because it has already been the topic of some debate, I kindly ask that nobody look it up as I think it will lead to great discussion.

Question 6

Without looking it up...

In the playoffs, what % of teams that won the TURNOVER battle ultimately won the game???

Please give your thoughts behind your answer as well!!!


I'm going to say 75%. That's a high number, but I'm comfortable in saying that 3 out of every 4 teams who win the TO battle win the game. Turnovers totally shift momentum and can flip field position in an instant. To me, they are the single most important aspect to a successful Defense and NOT turning it over is the most important for a successful Offense. We have seen over and over and over again Defenses that give up truck loads of yards, but because they create turnovers, it negates the yards given up completely.
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The_Slamman


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Keep the the thoughts coming. I promise all of you that you will find this interesting and dare I say fascinating.
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Matts4313


Joined: 08 Dec 2004
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Location: Cowboys Forum ROH Class of 12
PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The_Slamman wrote:
Here is the question that we've all been waiting for... Because it has already been the topic of some debate, I kindly ask that nobody look it up as I think it will lead to great discussion.

Question 6

Without looking it up...

In the playoffs, what % of teams that won the TURNOVER battle ultimately won the game???

Please give your thoughts behind your answer as well!!!


85%

And if the number isnt well above 50%, then I am going to argue that it is too small a sample size. It is truth that winning the turnover battle is one of the keys to winning in the NFL.

I am interested to see how many games had more than +1 in the turnover column.


Slam - Do you plan to compare these to either previous playoffs or the 2012 season itself? Just curious.
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The_Slamman


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Location: Las Vegas, NV
PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Matts4313 wrote:
The_Slamman wrote:
Here is the question that we've all been waiting for... Because it has already been the topic of some debate, I kindly ask that nobody look it up as I think it will lead to great discussion.

Question 6

Without looking it up...

In the playoffs, what % of teams that won the TURNOVER battle ultimately won the game???

Please give your thoughts behind your answer as well!!!


85%

And if the number isnt well above 50%, then I am going to argue that it is too small a sample size. It is truth that winning the turnover battle is one of the keys to winning in the NFL.

I am interested to see how many games had more than +1 in the turnover column.


Slam - Do you plan to compare these to either previous playoffs or the 2012 season itself? Just curious.


I plan on comparing these results to the cowboys 16 game results from 2012. These playoff teams are all fairly evenly matched... Especially after the wild card round. I wanted to look at what little things make a difference when 2 similarly competitive teams play.

See, I had a theory that the cowboys weren't outclassed by any team they played this year. We could play up or down to the competition on any given weak. I wanted to see if the results from closely matched teams in the playoffs mirror the cowboys 2012 results.


On a side note, I haven't gone in depth on 2011 playoffs but I did look at them a little bit. 2011 held closer to tradition than 2012. The giants road their defense to the SB mixed in with timely offense.
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Texas_OutLaw7


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I actually think Matts went too low. I am goin with 92% of the time the team wins when they win the turnover rate.
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The_Slamman


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Question 6

Without looking it up... In the playoffs, what % of teams that won the TURNOVER battle ultimately won the game???

Closest Answer

Texas_OutLaw7 wrote:
I actually think Matts went too low. I am goin with 92% of the time the team wins when they win the turnover rate.


Answer


Would you guys believe me if I told you that 100% of the teams that won the turnover battle won the game???

It's true...

Seattle 1, Washington 2
Minn 3, GB 0
Denver 3, Baltimore 1
GB 2 SF 1
Houston 1, NE 0
Atl 2, SF 1
NE 3, Baltimore 0
SF 2, Baltimore 1


Teams that tied...

Atl 2, Seattle 2
cincy 1, Houston 1
indy 2, baltimore 2

The teams that won the turnover battle in the playoffs were undefeated!!!

Thoughts???
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The_Slamman


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Remember when I said that the purpose of doing this was to compare the 11 games in the playoffs to the Cowboys 16 game season to see how closely the cowboys season resembled the results of the playoffs... That brings us to our final questions...

Question 7

In the playoffs, the teams that won the time of possession battle won the game 64% of the time. Without looking it up, what do you think the Cowboys winning % is in the games they won the TOP battle in 2012?
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Texas_OutLaw7


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 7:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The_Slamman wrote:
Remember when I said that the purpose of doing this was to compare the 11 games in the playoffs to the Cowboys 16 game season to see how closely the cowboys season resembled the results of the playoffs... That brings us to our final questions...

Question 7

In the playoffs, the teams that won the time of possession battle won the game 64% of the time. Without looking it up, what do you think the Cowboys winning % is in the games they won the TOP battle in 2012?


I actually feel like that number is decently close. I seem to recall some games where we would have these stupidly long drives and tons of possession. And others where well we would not.

I will go 48%
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CowboysTilIDie


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 8:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

35%. We would always go on these long drives, only to turn the ball over or settle for FGs.
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pierrepet


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 11:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

34%. By the way, great thread.
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Matts4313


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 11:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

50%
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Desperado Dan


Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The_Slamman wrote:
Question 7

In the playoffs, the teams that won the time of possession battle won the game 64% of the time. Without looking it up, what do you think the Cowboys winning % is in the games they won the TOP battle in 2012?


I'm going to go out on a limb here and say 100%. I think in the games we lost, we were forced from the beginning to throw a lot. Plus, our running game sucked.
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The_Slamman


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think you guys will find this interesting...

Question 7

In the playoffs, the teams that won the time of possession battle won the game 64% of the time. Without looking it up, what do you think the Cowboys winning % is in the games they won the TOP battle in 2012?

Closest Answer

Desperado Dan wrote:
The_Slamman wrote:
Question 7

In the playoffs, the teams that won the time of possession battle won the game 64% of the time. Without looking it up, what do you think the Cowboys winning % is in the games they won the TOP battle in 2012?


I'm going to go out on a limb here and say 100%. I think in the games we lost, we were forced from the beginning to throw a lot. Plus, our running game sucked.


Answer

The Dallas Cowboys won the time of possession battle 9 times last season. In those 9 games, the cowboys were 7-2 (78% winning %). The 2 losses were quite "flukey" as well. We won the TOP battle against Baltimore but missed a game winning FG in the last second. And, we won the TOP battle against NYG in Dallas in the game where Dez's hand barely touches out of bounds. Both were clearly winnable games and had other factors to consider.

We lost the TOP battle 7 times and went 1-6 in those games. The lone win? Our on the road win in Philly.
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