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Lessons To Learn From 2012 Playoffs And What It Means For DC
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htfryar


Joined: 14 Feb 2005
Posts: 12949
Location: Arkansas
PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

plan9misfit wrote:
htfryar wrote:
plan9misfit wrote:
htfryar wrote:
The average times a day that the DCRA complains about Jerry Jones?


Oh, come on! You're selling us way short if you think we only complain about him 45 times a day.


OK, how about the times a day y'all pray that McQuistan is brought back?


Not remotely close to enough.


Well, then the only logical answer is the number of Pat McQuistan Fatheads in the DCRA HQ. I bet it looks kinda like that commercial with Matthews, but uglier. A whole helluva lot uglier.
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textaz03


Joined: 09 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can we say Derailed! Lets get back and stay on topic please!!
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The_Slamman


Joined: 07 Feb 2005
Posts: 15309
Location: Las Vegas, NV
PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Question 1: Let's start with an easy one. Please look at these numbers...

45
41
38
35
34
31
31
30
28
28
28
28
24
13

CORRECT ANSWER

Obviously, there were some really good guesses. Unfortunately, I've never actually documented the number of times the DCRA complains about Jerry or JG. Similarly, I've never documented the number of searches I've done for adult websites during the games or times a day the DCRA has prayed for the return of Pat McQuistan. Certainly, those are all reasonable guesses. The person who came closest to the real answer is none other than...

CT Cowboy Fan wrote:
Average points scored a game?


The real answer is those are points scored by both teams from the division round through the SB. The bold numbers are the median points scored.

Divsion round-

Baltimore 38
Denver 35

SF 45
GB 31

Atlanta 30
Seattle 28

NE 41
Houston 28

Conference Championship

SF 28
Atl 24

Baltimore 28
NE 13

Superbowl

baltimore 34
SF 31

What's The Point???

2 points: First, I want everyone to notice that even REALLY GOOD defenses gave up a ton of points in the playoffs. In the regular season, Seattle gave up 15 PPG on average, SF gave up 17, Denver gave up 18, ATL gave up 18. However in the playoffs, all of those defenses gave up points. seattle gave up double their year average to ATL. SF gave up 31, 24, and 31 points. Denver gave up 38 point. ATL gave up 28 points both games.

Second, from the division round and forward, to have a 50/50 chance of winning the game, each team had to score at least 30.5 point based on the median of points scored.

Let's let that sink in. In 3 of those 7 games, the losing team put up 31 points or more!!! To advance in the playoffs, teams had score big points. I don't think I've ever seen another year quite like this.

The next question will be up in a few...
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Matts4313


Joined: 08 Dec 2004
Posts: 49008
Location: Cowboys Forum ROH Class of 12
PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

textaz03 wrote:
Can we say Derailed! Lets get back and stay on topic please!!


Ask and obscure question, get an obscure answer?


Slam - That is interesting. Am I hearing you right that you think this is an aberration or the new normal?
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The_Slamman


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Matts4313 wrote:
textaz03 wrote:
Can we say Derailed! Lets get back and stay on topic please!!


Ask and obscure question, get an obscure answer?


Slam - That is interesting. Am I hearing you right that you think this is an aberration or the new normal?


We've been hearing for a while now that the new rule changes favor the offenses and how its going to change the game. Well, we've been seeing that in the regular season. Now, passing for 5,000 yards in a season really isn't that big of a deal. But, I don't think it ever translated over to the playoffs in years past. My guess is that this is the new normal.

Why? the NFL has to love the high scoring, dramatic games where no lead is safe. Of the final 7 games, 3 of them involved one team jumping out to a huge lead only to have the other team fight back to either win the game or be in position to win the game in the final seconds. Then, there were the games like Den/Bal where Denver has a 7 point lead when Bal gets the ball back with 1.08 to go and Bal wins in OT, or Sea talking a 28 to 27 lead over ATL with 30 seconds to go only to lose in the final 30 secs, or the SB where SF nearly won (perhaps a missed holding penalty) in the final minute despite being down 28-6 in the 3rd quarter.
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The_Slamman


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This brings me to the next series of questions. We've all heard that winning certain battles within a game make it more likely for a team to win. I think the most common ones we hear about are...

3rd Down Efficiency
Time Of Possession
Turnovers
Rushing yards

Just for fun, I also looked up...

Total Yards
Penalties
Sacks

We'll go through each of them.

Question 2

Without looking it up, for the 2012 playoffs, what % of teams that won the 3rd down battle ultimately won the game?

To be clear, when I refer to the 3rd down battle, I mean the percentage of times a team successfully converting a 3rd down into a first down. Or asked a different way, the team that wins the 3rd down battle should win XX% of games???

Thoughts?
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Hawksrealm


Joined: 03 Nov 2009
Posts: 260
PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Teams that spend a lot of time grinding it out and getting those 3rd down battles are at a disadvantage in todays game.

Not to say it still can't work, but some teams can score so fast, that they are not really concerned with clock management til late in the game.

My guess is 33% of the time
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Texas_OutLaw7


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Given the scores, 41%
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The_Slamman


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting responses so far... you guys think that defenses that stop opposing offenses on third down are more likely than not to LOSE the game???

Last edited by The_Slamman on Thu Mar 21, 2013 3:16 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Texas_OutLaw7


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The_Slamman wrote:
Interesting responses so far... you guys think that defenses that stop opposing offenses on third down are more likely than not to LOSE the game???


I think there should be a direct relation, yes. But ST and D can also score. And turnovers come into play there as well.
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Matts4313


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

60%


But the team that won the turnover battle is likely closer to 75%.
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Hawksrealm


Joined: 03 Nov 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The_Slamman wrote:
Interesting responses so far... you guys think that defenses that stop opposing offenses on third down are more likely than not to LOSE the game???


I'm thinking there are so many varibles,.....so lets say its the Pats, they can score anytime from any place on the field.

Then you have the Jags, who will try and grind it out over the long haul. So getting a 1st down on third is important to which team.

One team is eating the clock, scoring a FG or a TD, the other team is scoring quickly and only worrring about the clock in the 4th quarter.

The Cowboys opened the season last year with the best 3 and outs, yeah we beat the Giants, but what happened after that? Plus I'm talking we led the NFL for 3 games in that stat.
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The_Slamman


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 3:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Question 2

Without looking it up, for the 2012 playoffs, what % of teams that won the 3rd down battle ultimately won the game?

Closest Answer

Texas_OutLaw7 wrote:
Given the scores, 41%


Answer 2

I'm actually really impressed with some of the guesses as they were close. But check this out (winning team in bold)...

3rd down efficiency:

Sea 3/13 (23%) , Was 5/11 (45%)
Minn 5/14 (36%), GB 3/14 (21%)
Indy 9/20 (45%), Bal 4/10 (40%)
Cin 0/9 (0%), Hou 8/17 (47%)
Bal 7/17 (41%), Den 7/16 (44%)
GB 5/12 42%), SF 8/13 (62%)
Sea 3/8 (38%), Atl 6/11(55%)
Hou 4/15 (27%), NE 6/13 (46%)
Atl 5/9 (56%), SF 2/6 (33%)
Bal 5/12 (42), NE 7/15 (47%)
Bal 9/16 (56%), SF 2/9 (22%)

The team that won the battle of third down, lost the game 55% of the time.

It almost seems counter-intuitive, but 3rd down stops in this new era of football are not as important as they used to be. Here's what I take away from this... It better for a defense to give up first downs than give up the big play for a TD, especially if the defense is able to hold the other team to a FG. Getting off the field on third down is still important, but it is NOT a clear indicator of wins/losses.


Last edited by The_Slamman on Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:58 am; edited 1 time in total
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The_Slamman


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 3:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Question 3

Without looking it up, for the 2012 playoffs, what % of teams that won the Time Of Possession battle ultimately won the game?
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Dirk Gently


Joined: 04 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 7:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nothing to add... just wanted to say I appreciate this thread.
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