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Who do you draft #2?
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Who do you draft #2?
QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
50%
 50%  [ 7 ]
WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
T Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
7%
 7%  [ 1 ]
T Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
G Chance Warmack, Alabama
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
DE Ezekiel Ansah, Brigham Young
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
DE Dion Jordan, Oregon
14%
 14%  [ 2 ]
DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida
7%
 7%  [ 1 ]
DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
LB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
LB Barkevious Mingo, LSU
21%
 21%  [ 3 ]
CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
S Kenny Vacarro, Texas
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Other player, post your choice below
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 14

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iPwn


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't want him either. I was just saying he has the highest upside. He's a physical freak and his limited experience means he isn't close to capping out what he could possibly do.
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JaguarCrazy2832


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
DMINGO

UNCHAINED


Laughing Love it!!!!



All 3 of the DEs mentioned(Mingo, Jordan, and Ansah) have high potential, but their bust potential are also really high. I'm starting to like Mingo the more i see him, but still dont want him at #2
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Tugboat


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 5:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
I don't want him either. I was just saying he has the highest upside. He's a physical freak and his limited experience means he isn't close to capping out what he could possibly do.


It also probably means it's going to take him longer to 'cap out' on his upside. Which, in the case of this team, and the FA rules now...i couldn't help but worry it takes him ~3 years to really 'find his game' at the NFL level. At which point he's not that young anymore, and is a FA able to go wherever he decides he wants to.

For some teams...maybe worth it. For a #2 pick with a team that is clearly heading into a top-to-bottom rebuild and hasn't exactly had a stellar track record developing elite impact d-linemen? No thanks.

Just too raw.
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JaguarCrazy2832


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tugboat wrote:
iPwn wrote:
I don't want him either. I was just saying he has the highest upside. He's a physical freak and his limited experience means he isn't close to capping out what he could possibly do.


It also probably means it's going to take him longer to 'cap out' on his upside. Which, in the case of this team, and the FA rules now...i couldn't help but worry it takes him ~3 years to really 'find his game' at the NFL level. At which point he's not that young anymore, and is a FA able to go wherever he decides he wants to.

For some teams...maybe worth it. For a #2 pick with a team that is clearly heading into a top-to-bottom rebuild and hasn't exactly had a stellar track record developing elite impact d-linemen? No thanks.

Just too raw.


Most guys going that high still have questions but potential, last year was a fluky year
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JagsFanInNY


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 3:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
Conquest8089 wrote:
This infatuation with Geno Smith is questionable on so many levels. The Jaguars are not a QB away from competing. Look at Seattle, they rebuilt the Lines around their scheme & then added the QB. The ideal option is Sharrif Floyd. It's a rarity to find a 4-3 DT that can push the pocket. He's young (20), has tremendous upside on the 3-technique & is an ideal scheme fit.
Were the Colts only a QB away from competing when they drafted Manning? Were the Falcons only a QB away from competing when they drafted Ryan? Were the Ravens only a QB away from competing when they drafted Flacco? Did the Steelers think they were only a QB away from competing when they drafted Ben? Were the Giants only a QB away when they drafted Eli? Did the Packers think their only need was a backup QB when they drafted Rodgers?

Finding a QB isn't as easy as some seem to think and expecting that you can find one late a couple years later is the perfect way to set yourself into overdrafting a Blaine Gabbert because you now find it necessary.

The Dolphins drafted an elite LT in Jake Long, arguably the best in the NFL before his injuries. The Rams selected a very, very good DE in Chris Long (he doesn't get a lot of sacks, but he gets a lot of pressure, more than just about anybody). And both of those teams screwed up by passing on Matt Ryan.

The Seahawks were lucky that a QB fell to them. Most teams aren't afforded that opportunity. You don't pass on a franchise QB because you have other needs. If you don't think he'll be good, that's fine. But to suggest that we shouldn't draft him because we have other holes? A quarterback is the most important position and a great one can make up for a lot of holes on the team.

If you don't think Geno is very good, and you think that he will bust, that's a perfectly logical stance and one I'm okay with. But passing on him just so you can draft another position? That's not smart drafting.

Every year, people say wait until next year on QBs and every year, people rip apart the QBs once they come around. This was supposed to be an amazing class, remember? We were supposed to have Matt Barkley, Tyler Bray, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones, etc. and this was supposed to be an elite, world class QB class. And now only one guy looks like a guarantee to go in the first round. Two years ago, everyone ripped Cam Newton apart pre-draft. It got so bad on here that Webby had to add a new mod to the Panthers forum to help keep things under control. Then what does he do? He goes on and has the best rookie season by a QB in NFL history, and follows that up with a very good sophomore year (though admittedly down from his rookie year). People will always rip apart QB prospects unless almost everything is perfect (Luck/RGIII), and there's always a microscope on every little thing they do. I think a lot of the dislike for Geno is that same type of overanalyzing of the position.




Anyway, to get back on topic, Floyd is a great player, and a great option at the pick. But I disagree with the reason you presented for why you draft him over a QB.


your argument sounds great until you realize hindsight is 20/20 and so this entire point is based on a single scenario. For all we know, the Longs was the next Jonathan Ogden and Reggie White and Ryan ended up as a mediocre QB in this league. The fact is that you tend to take the best player that makes sense for the team, I would go so far as to suggest Geno Smith actually does not make sense for this team, and regardless of whether he will be a bust or a good QB, with a young guy like Gabbert on this roster and a extraordinarily depressing lack of talent on this roster at so many other positions, you cannot take a guy like Geno at #2.

you also have to consider the fact that the crop of QBs is very up in the air and I find it hard to say that long term, this team would be worse off taking Ryan Nassib or Matt Scott in at a later point.
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JagsFanInNY wrote:
your argument sounds great until you realize hindsight is 20/20 and so this entire point is based on a single scenario. For all we know, the Longs was the next Jonathan Ogden and Reggie White and Ryan ended up as a mediocre QB in this league. The fact is that you tend to take the best player that makes sense for the team, I would go so far as to suggest Geno Smith actually does not make sense for this team, and regardless of whether he will be a bust or a good QB, with a young guy like Gabbert on this roster and a extraordinarily depressing lack of talent on this roster at so many other positions, you cannot take a guy like Geno at #2.

you also have to consider the fact that the crop of QBs is very up in the air and I find it hard to say that long term, this team would be worse off taking Ryan Nassib or Matt Scott in at a later point.
I think you missed the point I was making. Of course you pass on the QB if you don't think he's very good. I said as much in the post you quoted. But if your reason for passing on a QB is that we have more holes, you're setting yourself up for failure. You never pass on someone who you think would be a great QB when you need one. Even if Long turned into the greatest left tackle of all time, it would have still been the wrong pick and Matt Ryan isn't even an elite QB. Quarterbacks are that important.
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JagsFanInNY


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
JagsFanInNY wrote:
your argument sounds great until you realize hindsight is 20/20 and so this entire point is based on a single scenario. For all we know, the Longs was the next Jonathan Ogden and Reggie White and Ryan ended up as a mediocre QB in this league. The fact is that you tend to take the best player that makes sense for the team, I would go so far as to suggest Geno Smith actually does not make sense for this team, and regardless of whether he will be a bust or a good QB, with a young guy like Gabbert on this roster and a extraordinarily depressing lack of talent on this roster at so many other positions, you cannot take a guy like Geno at #2.

you also have to consider the fact that the crop of QBs is very up in the air and I find it hard to say that long term, this team would be worse off taking Ryan Nassib or Matt Scott in at a later point.
I think you missed the point I was making. Of course you pass on the QB if you don't think he's very good. I said as much in the post you quoted. But if your reason for passing on a QB is that we have more holes, you're setting yourself up for failure. You never pass on someone who you think would be a great QB when you need one. Even if Long turned into the greatest left tackle of all time, it would have still been the wrong pick and Matt Ryan isn't even an elite QB. Quarterbacks are that important.
If your point was great QB >> great anything else, then sure I agree and missed that. If you are saying very good QB >> great pass rusher or something like that, I would disagree.
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Its A Sabotage


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 5:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A very good QB like a Flacco, Eli, or Ben [or Ryan] is what wins now...suspect pass rush is fine, but as long as you have someone slinging it, you are golden.
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JagsFanInNY


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its A Sabotage wrote:
A very good QB like a Flacco, Eli, or Ben [or Ryan] is what wins now...suspect pass rush is fine, but as long as you have someone slinging it, you are golden.
that just isn't true. how did the Gaints do this year with a weak pass rush? Was it Flacco that got the Ravens to the postseason(QBR on par with Gabbert during reg season)? Did Big Ben overcome the ineptitude of the pass rush on that team to lead his team to the postseason? Then consider a playoff team like Minnesota that was 5th in the league in sacks and had an elite DE in Jared Allen. Sure they also had the best RB the league has seen in a while, but they also had a pretty bad QB on the team.
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JagsFanInNY wrote:
Its A Sabotage wrote:
A very good QB like a Flacco, Eli, or Ben [or Ryan] is what wins now...suspect pass rush is fine, but as long as you have someone slinging it, you are golden.
that just isn't true. how did the Gaints do this year with a weak pass rush? Was it Flacco that got the Ravens to the postseason(QBR on par with Gabbert during reg season)? Did Big Ben overcome the ineptitude of the pass rush on that team to lead his team to the postseason? Then consider a playoff team like Minnesota that was 5th in the league in sacks and had an elite DE in Jared Allen. Sure they also had the best RB the league has seen in a while, but they also had a pretty bad QB on the team.
The Giants struggled everywhere the entire season. No one claimed a good QB can prop up an entire team.

In what way was Gabbert on par with Flacco? Seriously?

Ben missed three games, two of which were close losses, and missed the playoffs by two games. Who knows how they do if they win those two games. Plus they were still top half of the league in sacks.

Minnesota has 6 more sacks when they went 3-13 in 2011 than they had this past year and were significantly more efficient in their sack rate (8.5% compared to 6.7% this year). Jared Allen had 10 fewer sacks than he did on that 3 win team. It wasn't their pass rush that made them good. Not even close.
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Tugboat


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 2:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
JagsFanInNY wrote:
your argument sounds great until you realize hindsight is 20/20 and so this entire point is based on a single scenario. For all we know, the Longs was the next Jonathan Ogden and Reggie White and Ryan ended up as a mediocre QB in this league. The fact is that you tend to take the best player that makes sense for the team, I would go so far as to suggest Geno Smith actually does not make sense for this team, and regardless of whether he will be a bust or a good QB, with a young guy like Gabbert on this roster and a extraordinarily depressing lack of talent on this roster at so many other positions, you cannot take a guy like Geno at #2.

you also have to consider the fact that the crop of QBs is very up in the air and I find it hard to say that long term, this team would be worse off taking Ryan Nassib or Matt Scott in at a later point.
I think you missed the point I was making. Of course you pass on the QB if you don't think he's very good. I said as much in the post you quoted. But if your reason for passing on a QB is that we have more holes, you're setting yourself up for failure. You never pass on someone who you think would be a great QB when you need one. Even if Long turned into the greatest left tackle of all time, it would have still been the wrong pick and Matt Ryan isn't even an elite QB. Quarterbacks are that important.


I pretty much agree with what you're saying there. If you don't have your QB position settled with a great starter for years to come, you have to grab the guy if you think he can be that kind of great QB. Anything else is probably a mistake.

But i'd add the caveat that when you're talking a #2 or 'top-5' pick or what have you, you should probably be drafting not only a QB prospect who you think has the potential to be great...but a great prospect as well.

As an example of that, the clearest recent example is Kaepernick. Hearing what Harbaugh had to say about the guy and how he felt around the draft...clearly Kaep was a guy who they felt had HUGE upside and could be an elite QB. That doesn't mean they grabbed him with their first rounder, just because. Basically, while Kaepernick is well on his way to becoming a great QB...he wasn't exactly a great prospect in terms of throwing a 1st round grade on him.
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JagsFanInNY


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

while not a perfect measure of QB performance, Flacco was 25th in the league with a 46.8 QBR. Gabbert was 30th with a 40.9. Flacco was just not that great and was a subpar QB this regular season. He was not the reason they made the playoffs and that is my point. In every case, it is not just a good QB that got their team to the playoffs.
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

QBR is the worst statistic in football.

Flacco threw a significant amount of more passes, completed a higher percentage, had a YPA that was over a yard more. His TD percentage was almost a pull percent higher, while his interception percentage was .3% better.

Nothing about his year says barely better than Gabbert except the QBR.
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JagsFanInNY


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
QBR is the worst statistic in football.

Flacco threw a significant amount of more passes, completed a higher percentage, had a YPA that was over a yard more. His TD percentage was almost a pull percent higher, while his interception percentage was .3% better.

Nothing about his year says barely better than Gabbert except the QBR.
in reality, a good portion of the numbers you want to look at are actually far inferior indicators of the value of a QB than QBR. Sure it is nice to go and try to say a guy with more attempts and a higher completion percentage is the better player, but that is not actually the case. I am not saying this is the case with Gabbert and Flacco, but a guy with 3000 meaningless yards and a 60% completion rate is not the same as a guy who leads game winning drives and puts together a more meaningful 2200 yards and 54% completion rate.

The truth of the matter is that as a math/stats person, I have began to "study" QBR and what it is measuring and as far as I can tell, it speaks volumes more about a QB than these stats you want to use.
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What does QBR measure?

QBR is so bad that ESPN doesn't even talk about it anymore.

Those stats aren't supposed to be looks at as one, that's why I mentioned them. Not only did Flacco throw more, but he was more more efficient and won games. If throwing for less and being less efficient while winning is "better" than throwing more, being more efficient and losing, isn't throwing more, being more efficient and winning significantly better than losing and sucking while losing?
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