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Patriots host Steelers RFA WR Emmanuel Sanders
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 6:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TomRalph wrote:

Why would we 'settle' for the known commodity, when we could end up hitting it out of the park like we did with Stevan Ridley, or Aaron Hernandez (Early 4th...)? Yes, people like to dwell on the Taylor Price/Kevin O'Connell Patriots selections, but what about the Mike Wallace/Geno Atkins/Richard Shermans that other teams hit on? Why don't we hope we hit on one of these picks every once in a while like they do?



This is very much the same justification people use when they play the lottery (not so surprisingly, as the draft really is a lottery of sorts).

The chances of any team hitting big in the late 3rd, 4th or 5th rounds is small. The chance that Emmanuel Sanders is a better professional football player than any player taken in that range is very good.

The reason you can name guys like Wallace, Atkins, Shermans etc is because it's very rare to get a quality player from that part of the draft.

Here's the 2008 4th round. How many of these guys are better players than Emmanuel Sanders is - even if you view him as nothing more than a decent #3 WR:

Tyvon Branch, Justin King, Jeremy Thompson, William Hayes, Beau Bell, Will Franklin, Marcus Smith, Cody Wallace, Kory Lichtensteiger, Mike McGlynn, Shawn Murphy, Martin Rucker, Anthony Collins, Dwight Lowery, Reggie Corner, Dre Moore, Kenny Iwebama, Quintin Demps, Xavier Abidi, Jack Williams, Craig Steltz, Red Bryant, Tashard Choice, Bryan Kehl, Justin Tryon, Arman Shields, Lavelle Hawkins, Jacob Tamme, Keenan Burton, Jonathan Wilhite, Tony Hills, Jack Ikegwuonu, Derek Fine, David Hale, Stanford Keglar, Josh Sitton

Of all of those guys, most of them are out of the league or have been cut (or traded) by their drafting team. Sitton, Branch and Bryant are the only guys I'd consider big successes, with Lowery and Tamme as useful and other guys like Choice, Lichtensteiger, McGlynn and Hayes contributing but below where Sanders is/will be.

I won't list the 5th round players, but only 2 were big successes (Carl Nicks, Brandon Carr) with only a couple guys in the "useful" category (Matthew Slater, Kroy Biermann, Orlando Scandrick).

It's not a "The Patriots stink at drafting X position, or in Y round." The fact of the matter is that the chances of finding good NFL players - and by "good" I mean 3-4 year productive starting or frequently used rotational players - decreases significantly after the top 50 picks or so and even more rapidly after the 75-80 selection. Even the best drafting teams - which I consider New England to be amongst - struggle to find anything more than short term backups and special teams guys.

Sure, they might find the next Aaron Hernandez but - even with great scouting and evaluation - will most likely end up with someone similar to or worse than Jonathan Wilhite.

As I said earlier in this thread, it's an absolute no brainer to me to trade (or surrender) the 91st pick for Sanders or any other young player who has shown he can play decently in the NFL - assuming the contract isn't crazy. If it were a 2nd round pick or Sanders' contract was projected to be huge, it would be a different situation. But a late 3rd for a productive, young NFL player with still untapped upside? I do that deal all day. Chances are Sanders will be more valuable going forward than all but 10-15 of the final 150-160 guys drafted this year.
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rabbisson


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, receivers take a longer time to develop than most other positions. Sanders could just be scratching the surface of his potential.

I'd personally make the move if the money is right, I think.
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TomRalph


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 4:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see where everyone is coming from, I agree entirely, I'm not in some wonderland of rainbows and fairy dust where I believe we should be drafting a Mike Wallace with every 3rd, Atkins with every 4th, Sherman with every 5th, Brady with every 6th and Colston with every 7th - that is ridiculous, I'm aware of that.

I suppose what I'm saying, and I am merely playing Devils Advocate (I DO like Sanders!) is that by giving up the 3rd Round Pick, we are relinquishing ALL chances of drafting a Wallace, Atkins, Sherman, Brady, Colston for a known commodity that isn't going to set the world on fire.

I think this comes from my gambling nature, I do like to bet on sports (not the lottery though, that's pointless Razz) where I want more for what I'm spending based on a (slightly) educated opinion, which is effectively what scouting is.

Also, I imagine the success/failure rate of 2nd Round Picks (particularly those in the 60's) is also not that high, are we advocating that we should trade those draft picks if that ratio isn't as high as we'd like? Where does the line end?

I've given scenarios of 3rd Round Picks (or less) being traded for better WR's, I think we could explore more avenues than just Sanders.

If we don't like our options of selecting a successful 3rd Round Pick, why not trade into the future 2nd and increase our chances? We don't have to spend that pick this off-season do we?

I just think in the NFL trade market, draft picks are overvalued (for whatever reason) and that in this instance, the pick and player hold similar value ie. not weighted towards the draft pick like in most (perhaps this is wrong) instances.
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chrisororke


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steelers fan here. Yeah when are you guys going to sign Manny Sanders?!!

Our FO thinks we have a chance but the defense should fall apart this year and Troy, Clark, Ike are really on their last leg. Sanders would be a good signing as he really is scratching the surface of his potential. The first couple years he had some ankle and a knee sprain that held him back

He had 650 yards last year as the third WR. Obviously if he sees 2nd WR action that will easily be 1,000 yards in your offense.

He's a 4.4 flat speed and his broad jump numbers were the best his year he was drafted. That's a good gauge of explosion. He runs crisp routes and I can imagine he would tear it up in your offense.

You may ask why I would be reluctant to get rid of him and we are going back to running the ball so we don't need all of these flashy WRs. Plus, I think we are going to lay an egg so we could use a pick to help the rebuilding process. You hurt us while helping yourself. I can imagine both FO's think the Steelers will be competitive but that won't be the case.

He should be a fairly easy sign for you guys as we have little cap room 2.5M. They have Sanders tagged at 1.323 so anything above 3.9M cap hit year one we couldn't literally match the contract nor would I anyways.

This is a move that helps both teams in my opinion. You are a piece away from really being dominant and its worth a 3rd rd pick for 1,000 yds of production. Plus, I think of all rookies drafted ever only Terry Glenn, AJ Green, and Randy Moss have had over 1,000 yds their rookie year. No need to play the lottery, take the sure thing.
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Deadpulse


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As has already been said, most likely the Patriots are waiting until closer to the deadline for RFA's to give the chance for the Steelers to bring on more contracts and become less flexible in an attempt to match our offer sheet. Or, we could simply have decided against it completely.
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24isthelaw


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 1:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

chrisororke wrote:
Steelers fan here. Yeah when are you guys going to sign Manny Sanders?!!

Our FO thinks we have a chance but the defense should fall apart this year and Troy, Clark, Ike are really on their last leg. Sanders would be a good signing as he really is scratching the surface of his potential. The first couple years he had some ankle and a knee sprain that held him back

He had 650 yards last year as the third WR. Obviously if he sees 2nd WR action that will easily be 1,000 yards in your offense.

He's a 4.4 flat speed and his broad jump numbers were the best his year he was drafted. That's a good gauge of explosion. He runs crisp routes and I can imagine he would tear it up in your offense.

You may ask why I would be reluctant to get rid of him and we are going back to running the ball so we don't need all of these flashy WRs. Plus, I think we are going to lay an egg so we could use a pick to help the rebuilding process. You hurt us while helping yourself. I can imagine both FO's think the Steelers will be competitive but that won't be the case.

He should be a fairly easy sign for you guys as we have little cap room 2.5M. They have Sanders tagged at 1.323 so anything above 3.9M cap hit year one we couldn't literally match the contract nor would I anyways.

This is a move that helps both teams in my opinion. You are a piece away from really being dominant and its worth a 3rd rd pick for 1,000 yds of production. Plus, I think of all rookies drafted ever only Terry Glenn, AJ Green, and Randy Moss have had over 1,000 yds their rookie year. No need to play the lottery, take the sure thing.


Thank you for the insight. I agree with you - win/win situation if the Pats pull the trigger. I don't think we're going into the season with Donald Jones as a WR#2, and a draft pick at the position seems unlikely as well, considering the team's historical reluctance to spend draft picks on the wide receiver position, combined with the litany of needs our team has.

That said, deadpulse and others are right that the Pats are in no hurry if they want to make this happen. We'll find out in two weeks or so.
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TomRalph


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 3:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

24isthelaw wrote:
chrisororke wrote:
Steelers fan here. Yeah when are you guys going to sign Manny Sanders?!!

Our FO thinks we have a chance but the defense should fall apart this year and Troy, Clark, Ike are really on their last leg. Sanders would be a good signing as he really is scratching the surface of his potential. The first couple years he had some ankle and a knee sprain that held him back

He had 650 yards last year as the third WR. Obviously if he sees 2nd WR action that will easily be 1,000 yards in your offense.

He's a 4.4 flat speed and his broad jump numbers were the best his year he was drafted. That's a good gauge of explosion. He runs crisp routes and I can imagine he would tear it up in your offense.

You may ask why I would be reluctant to get rid of him and we are going back to running the ball so we don't need all of these flashy WRs. Plus, I think we are going to lay an egg so we could use a pick to help the rebuilding process. You hurt us while helping yourself. I can imagine both FO's think the Steelers will be competitive but that won't be the case.

He should be a fairly easy sign for you guys as we have little cap room 2.5M. They have Sanders tagged at 1.323 so anything above 3.9M cap hit year one we couldn't literally match the contract nor would I anyways.

This is a move that helps both teams in my opinion. You are a piece away from really being dominant and its worth a 3rd rd pick for 1,000 yds of production. Plus, I think of all rookies drafted ever only Terry Glenn, AJ Green, and Randy Moss have had over 1,000 yds their rookie year. No need to play the lottery, take the sure thing.


Thank you for the insight. I agree with you - win/win situation if the Pats pull the trigger. I don't think we're going into the season with Donald Jones as a WR#2, and a draft pick at the position seems unlikely as well, considering the team's historical reluctance to spend draft picks on the wide receiver position, combined with the litany of needs our team has.

That said, deadpulse and others are right that the Pats are in no hurry if they want to make this happen. We'll find out in two weeks or so.


But one of our biggest needs going into the draft is a WR Confused
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Grachuus


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TomRalph wrote:


But one of our biggest needs going into the draft is a WR Confused


That is highly debatable. As a quarterback ages pass velocity decreases. A WR in the Patriots offense is typically not productive right away. While one does not expect Brady to decrease dramatically this year it is also known that he will at some point. If Brady were to say last four years from now it would be terrible to spend a first round pick on a WR because it stands to reason that the team is going to continue it's trend of increasing the proportion of the run plays and using as many multi-TE sets as it can to help with the disguise and play-action efficiency.

TL;DR The Patriots play calling, personnel, past drafting history, and common sense would lead me to believe that the Patriots do not value a WR high in the draft.
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24isthelaw


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 2:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Grachuus wrote:
TomRalph wrote:


But one of our biggest needs going into the draft is a WR Confused


That is highly debatable. As a quarterback ages pass velocity decreases. A WR in the Patriots offense is typically not productive right away. While one does not expect Brady to decrease dramatically this year it is also known that he will at some point. If Brady were to say last four years from now it would be terrible to spend a first round pick on a WR because it stands to reason that the team is going to continue it's trend of increasing the proportion of the run plays and using as many multi-TE sets as it can to help with the disguise and play-action efficiency.

TL;DR The Patriots play calling, personnel, past drafting history, and common sense would lead me to believe that the Patriots do not value a WR high in the draft.


I hope you're right. Brady is at his best when he's under center, and the building blocks of our offense (offensive line, tight ends) are meant to be used that way.

In terms of how he could be used, Sanders reminds me of a young Deion Branch - not the biggest guy, quicker than fast but damn fast as well, can play inside or outside, hands catcher, seen as a potential elite route runner.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sanders isnt a hand catcher at all. See him for what he is/could be, not the few similarities he has with a young Deion Branch.

Brady is at his best out of shot gun. That is when he produces the most points.
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TomRalph


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 2:46 pm    Post subject: !! Reply with quote

Grachuus wrote:
TomRalph wrote:


But one of our biggest needs going into the draft is a WR Confused


That is highly debatable. As a quarterback ages pass velocity decreases. A WR in the Patriots offense is typically not productive right away. While one does not expect Brady to decrease dramatically this year it is also known that he will at some point. If Brady were to say last four years from now it would be terrible to spend a first round pick on a WR because it stands to reason that the team is going to continue it's trend of increasing the proportion of the run plays and using as many multi-TE sets as it can to help with the disguise and play-action efficiency.

TL;DR The Patriots play calling, personnel, past drafting history, and common sense would lead me to believe that the Patriots do not value a WR high in the draft.


You aren't possibly advocating that the Patriots will continue their success without adding WR's?!

This isn't the 60's. We need to pass the ball deep and intermediate to guys outside the numbers. I'm not going all NBT on everyone and saying we need to bring back Randy and draft Justin Hunter but to say that a WR wouldn't be valued highly because Tom's arm strength is diminishing is just ridiculous. We cannot rely solely on running the ball and the TE's.

I don';t know if anyone has picked up on it but I think that Robert Woods is the perfect receiver for us to target in the draft. He is a versatile WR and will thrive in our system and in a few years if and when Brady's arm isn't what it was, her can still have an impact on short and intermediate routes. Just as Amendola and Hernandez will.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:


Brady is at his best out of shot gun. That is when he produces the most points.


Terrible logic
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Grachuus


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 3:14 pm    Post subject: Re: !! Reply with quote

TomRalph wrote:
Grachuus wrote:
TomRalph wrote:


But one of our biggest needs going into the draft is a WR Confused


That is highly debatable. As a quarterback ages pass velocity decreases. A WR in the Patriots offense is typically not productive right away. While one does not expect Brady to decrease dramatically this year it is also known that he will at some point. If Brady were to say last four years from now it would be terrible to spend a first round pick on a WR because it stands to reason that the team is going to continue it's trend of increasing the proportion of the run plays and using as many multi-TE sets as it can to help with the disguise and play-action efficiency.

TL;DR The Patriots play calling, personnel, past drafting history, and common sense would lead me to believe that the Patriots do not value a WR high in the draft.


You aren't possibly advocating that the Patriots will continue their success without adding WR's?!

This isn't the 60's. We need to pass the ball deep and intermediate to guys outside the numbers. I'm not going all NBT on everyone and saying we need to bring back Randy and draft Justin Hunter but to say that a WR wouldn't be valued highly because Tom's arm strength is diminishing is just ridiculous. We cannot rely solely on running the ball and the TE's.

I don';t know if anyone has picked up on it but I think that Robert Woods is the perfect receiver for us to target in the draft. He is a versatile WR and will thrive in our system and in a few years if and when Brady's arm isn't what it was, her can still have an impact on short and intermediate routes. Just as Amendola and Hernandez will.


That's not what I posted. I posted DRAFTING WR is stupendously irresponsible with the top pick.

Did you see how the 9ers used Alex Smith last year? He was very good in a run heavy offense. The Patriots with slightly more passes protect Brady and allow a slightly less capable him produce. If you can't accept that everyone gets older I can't help you.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 3:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
NextBigThing wrote:


Brady is at his best out of shot gun. That is when he produces the most points.


Terrible logic


No it isn't. The Patriots as a team may be better off overall running the ball, and I won't disagree with that, but Brady is at his best, at this point in his career, when he is shot gun and running the hurry up. The 2nd half vs. SF is a good example of what I mean. To be fair, TB does most things at a high level, though.
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TomRalph


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 3:38 pm    Post subject: Re: !! Reply with quote

Grachuus wrote:
TomRalph wrote:
Grachuus wrote:
TomRalph wrote:


But one of our biggest needs going into the draft is a WR Confused


That is highly debatable. As a quarterback ages pass velocity decreases. A WR in the Patriots offense is typically not productive right away. While one does not expect Brady to decrease dramatically this year it is also known that he will at some point. If Brady were to say last four years from now it would be terrible to spend a first round pick on a WR because it stands to reason that the team is going to continue it's trend of increasing the proportion of the run plays and using as many multi-TE sets as it can to help with the disguise and play-action efficiency.

TL;DR The Patriots play calling, personnel, past drafting history, and common sense would lead me to believe that the Patriots do not value a WR high in the draft.


You aren't possibly advocating that the Patriots will continue their success without adding WR's?!

This isn't the 60's. We need to pass the ball deep and intermediate to guys outside the numbers. I'm not going all NBT on everyone and saying we need to bring back Randy and draft Justin Hunter but to say that a WR wouldn't be valued highly because Tom's arm strength is diminishing is just ridiculous. We cannot rely solely on running the ball and the TE's.

I don';t know if anyone has picked up on it but I think that Robert Woods is the perfect receiver for us to target in the draft. He is a versatile WR and will thrive in our system and in a few years if and when Brady's arm isn't what it was, her can still have an impact on short and intermediate routes. Just as Amendola and Hernandez will.


That's not what I posted. I posted DRAFTING WR is stupendously irresponsible with the top pick.

Did you see how the 9ers used Alex Smith last year? He was very good in a run heavy offense. The Patriots with slightly more passes protect Brady and allow a slightly less capable him produce. If you can't accept that everyone gets older I can't help you.


I accept he will get old, but he is not going to become some geriatric, arthritic old man who can't throw the ball more than 10 yards past the LOS. Get him a versatile weapon who can go short, medium and long and he will have success, now and in the future.
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