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3-4 OLB Scouting: Waldo's Formulas (2014 Update pg. 3)
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green24


Joined: 10 Apr 2010
Posts: 47651
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:32 pm    Post subject: 3-4 OLB Scouting: Waldo's Formulas (2014 Update pg. 3) Reply with quote

I am bringing together the ideas and works of two posters on here to analyze this year's crop of 3-4 OLB prospects and how this could impact the Jets' draft plans come April.

Waldo, a former member on FF, came up with a genius method of analyzing 3-4 OLB prospects using their combine numbers. The accuracy and success of his formulas is just remarkable.
Waldo wrote:
Formulas used:
Mass = weight/height
Explosive Power = (vert+3.5*broad)*(weight/height)/3000
Speed 10 = 100*(1-(10 Split/(0.0114*(weight/height)+1.1785)))
Speed 40 = 100*(1-(40 time/(0.0397*(weight/height)+3.092)))
Speed Avg = (Speed 10 + Speed 40)/2
Agility = 100*(1-(3 Cone/(0.0573*(weight/height)+4.8403)))
Twitch = Shuttle - 2*10 yd split - (1.60 - 10 yd split)

He divides the 3-4 OLB prospects into five separate groups: High Risk, Moderate Risk, Mid-Low Risk, Low Risk 1, Low Risk 2. Here are the guidelines and past results for each group and how the success of the players are judged.

*Note: Waldo has not updated his post since March 2011, so some non 3-4 players (KJ Wright, Jabaal Sheard, Robert Quinn, Dontay Moch, etc.) may be listed. These players have often had success in a 4-3 defense that these results would suggest that they would not have had in a 3-4 defense. This may also lead to some players being listed at a level of success that no longer fit them (Paul Kruger, Anthony Spencer, Connor Barwin, etc.).

Success Rater:


High Risk:
Waldo wrote:
First things first, I went and filtered off every player that scored higher than a 1.05 in the explosive power formula. Those players don't seem to be affected by doing well or poor in other drills. Probably an incorrect assmuption, but lacking a test case of a guy that does terrible otherwise, it will have to stick for now.

Other than that, I sorted guys by the twitch measure, the first group here are guys that scored 1.20 or worse in the twitch formula. It is sorted by draft position. This is a very high risk group, draft with extreme caution.


The players listed in this group seem to have had very little NFL success. Our very own Vernon Gholston is one of many busts in this group. One player who appeared to buck the trend this season is Paul Kruger. He had 9 sacks this season and likely awaits a nice contract as he hits free agency this offseason.

As warned earlier, some non 3-4 OLBs are listed here. This may explain why players like Wright and Sheard have had some NFL success. Their skillsets play well for their 4-3 roles, but they would probably not be as good in 3-4 defenses.


Moderate Risk:
Waldo wrote:
These guys all measured between 1.10 and 1.19 in the twitch formula. The group is sorted by draft position. There area only a limited number of sub-7.0 3 cone guys, so I didn't split them out.

Success has gone up markedly here over the last group, however noone in this group is beating down Canton's door. Players in this group seem to have a very definite ceiling, and though they make make good complimentary players, you probably are not looking at a pass rusher to be feared.

Still, players are worth a draft pick. Like I said, moderate risk, no notable busts, however keep your expectations in check with these guys if you want to be happy. Solid has to be good enough.


As Waldo stated, this group is better than the high risk group, but still not exactly an excellent crop. Anthony Spencer had a Pro Bowl 2012 season, although he has not been performing at this level for most of his career. Ryan Kerrigan and Brooks Reed have had some early success with 16 and 8.5 career sacks, respectively, through two seasons. Robert Quinn has also had success, but he has done so in a 4-3 defense.


Mid-Low Risk:
Waldo wrote:
You can see a trend developing. These are all the guys that scored under a 1.10 in the twitch formula, however that also ran slower than a 7.0 3 cone. Again sorted by draft position.


One thing that holds true for this group, of the ones that got it going, it took them all a while to do so. None of them really did much early in their careers.


Highlighted by Tamba Hali, the OLBs in this group have generally had more success than the OLBs in the previous two groups. Jason Babin, Parys Haralson, and Koa Misi have had some NFL success, although none are near the level of Hali. Most of the 2011 picks in this group were late round picks or UDFAs (Ozougwu was Mr. Irrelevant), aside from Akeem Ayers, who plays in a 4-3 defense.

Overall, this is a group that is not littered with the Vernon Gholstons of the world, but also one that hasn't exactly been without a decent share of disappointments. I don't think being placed in this group should really affect the evaluation of a prospect one way or another.


Low Risk 1:
Waldo wrote:
This is the other half of the last group, all the guys that both had a score of less than 1.10 in the twitch formula, and had a 3 cone time of under 7.0. Again sorted by draft position.

One thing to take note of is how most of the lesser players are slow. Show up in this group and a guy has a good chance of working out for you. Draft players in this group with confidence.


...and this is where it starts getting better. Some of the best pass rushers in the NFL fall into this group, including DeMarcus Ware, Clay Matthews, and Von Miller. Miller does play in a 4-3 defense, but his role in that defense is probably closer to a 3-4 OLB role than it is to his listed position of 4-3 OLB. Shaun Phillips has multiple double digit sack seasons to his name, while Manny Lawson, Sam Acho, and Rob Ninkovich have also had some success rushing the passer.

Although there are some disappoints in this group, the pass rushers who fall into this group often seem to have success in the NFL. This is a group that that teams would love to draft players from.


Low Risk 2:
Waldo wrote:
Every player that scored above a 1.05 in the power formula.


Draft with confidence in this group.


The success rate of these players is just remarkable. Excluding Dontay Moch, who has played in a 4-3 defense, EVERY player in this group has notched at least one double digit sack season. Even though Shawne Merriman has fallen off a cliff due to steroids, injuries, or a multitude of other injuries and Mark Anderson has not had much consistency in his career, the success of the players in this group is just remarkable.

Teams should target pass rushers in this group, as there is a very good chance that they will become a 10+ sack pass rusher.


-----------------------------------------------------------

Although Waldo no longer posts on FF, it does not mean that his formulas cannot still be used to analyze 3-4 OLBs in upcoming draft classes.

This year, Duffman57 has done a remarkable job of number crunching this year's potential 3-4 OLBs. Here are the groups that some of this year's 3-4 OLB prospects fall in:

High Risk:

The biggest name on this list is clearly Barkevious Mingo. Mingo is a guy that very likely could be a top 10 pick and may be a top target for the Jets. This would suggest that he, along with his former LSU teammate, is greatly at risk of busting in the NFL.

Moderate Risk:

While being placed in this group has not shown to be as much of a death sentence as being placed in the high risk group has been, many 3-4 OLBs categorized as moderate risks have busted in the NFL. Two of the top pass rushers in this class and potential 10 picks, Dion Jordan and Bjoern Werner, fall into this group. While it is certainly very possible that these two could have success in the NFL, being placed here is not really a positive for them.

Mid-Low Risk:

While it is very much in question whether Ziggy Ansah can play 3-4 OLB, many of the other names listed are projected to go in the second or third round. Corey Lemonier, Sio Moore, and Chase Thomas are players that the Jets could very likely consider spending a solid draft pick on. It appears that these players would be less likely to bust than Mingo or Jordan, but this does not guarantee their success at the next level.

Low Risk 1:

Devin Taylor is the only 3-4 OLB in this year's draft to fall in the Low Risk 1 group. This group, which has proved to be just a notch below the Low Risk 2 group as the best predictor of success at the next level, is one that teams should target players in. Taylor is projected to be a 3rd or 4th round pick as of now, although he could certainly rise because of his impressive combine. This is a player that a team should feel confident in drafting come April.

Low Risk 2:

This top group contains two of my favorite 3-4 OLB prospects, Jamie Collins and Cornelius Washington. Collins has been flying up draft boards lately and has even entered the first round conversation. He is a guy that I would love to see the Jets grab in the 2nd round or even in the late 1st round after a trade up or trade down. He can be a huge difference maker at the next level and a 10+ sack player at 3-4 OLB.

Washington is another player who has generated a lot of buzz in the past couple months, despite very little production at the college level. His combine performance and placement in the Low Risk 2 group suggest that he could be a much better player at the NFL level. He is currently projected to be a 4th or 5th round pick and continues to rise. Judging by these calculations, it appears that both Collins and Washington are at a very low risk of busting.


-----------------------------------------------------------

So... what does all this mean?

While there is no way to perfectly predict how good a player will be at the next level, this is a method that has shown in the past to be very successful in predicting NFL success. I think we should consider the placement of the 3-4 OLB prospects in these five groups when considering what pass rusher(s) we want the Jets to take come April. Jamie Collins and Cornelius Washington are certainly gaining some ground on the likes of Barkevious Mingo thanks to these results. While Mingo will probably be drafted before both of them, evidence seems to suggest that Collins and Washington might have more success than him at the NFL level.


-----------------------------------------------------------

Sources:
Waldo - 3-4 OLB's, by the #'s
Duffman57 - Binging Waldo Back / [2013] 3-4 OLB Formulas


Last edited by green24 on Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:51 pm; edited 1 time in total
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superbowlbound


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 12:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So i was right to put Collins and Washington as my two DE/OLB's in my mock draft?? haha

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/posting.php?mode=vote&t=515233
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jetskid007


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 12:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cornelius Washington is going to be this year's Olivier Vernon. More and more teams are using analytics to discover players, and I think someone is going to take Washington in the 3rd round thinking that he'll be a better pro then college player.

Last edited by jetskid007 on Sat Mar 02, 2013 1:56 am; edited 1 time in total
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superbowlbound


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 12:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jetskid007 wrote:
Cornelius Washington is going to be this year's Olivier Vernon. More and more teams are using analytics to discover players, and I think someone is going to take Washington in the 3rd round and be a better pro then college player.


he reminds me of a calvin pace... i dont mean that negatively

-great run stopper
- wil be a decent pass rusher
- wont play a ton of coverage
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rickyt31


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 9:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dion didn't do the bench press, so that's working against him in this formula.

I was shocked to see Taylor rated as a low risk as a 3-4OLB. I do agree with the high risk section, but most of them didn't bench press either.
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green24


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rickyt31 wrote:
Dion didn't do the bench press, so that's working against him in this formula.

I was shocked to see Taylor rated as a low risk as a 3-4OLB. I do agree with the high risk section, but most of them didn't bench press either.

The bench press doesn't factor into this.
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Raoul Duke


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps if every player that ever went through the combine for every year was charted, this would be more valuable information. The sample size is way too small.

You would need to have numbers for every single player in the draft for a particular year; not to mention scheme they played in, injuries, coaching information, what teams they played for, what players they played with and a million other factors.

If there were a formula, every team in the NFL would have a guy that did nothing but spend his day working that formula.

This chart really just tells us what we already know: the bigger, faster, quicker, stronger, more athletic, more explosive a guy is, the better his chance for success.
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Jetsman82


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Raoul Duke wrote:
Perhaps if every player that ever went through the combine for every year was charted, this would be more valuable information. The sample size is way too small.

You would need to have numbers for every single player in the draft for a particular year; not to mention scheme they played in, injuries, coaching information, what teams they played for, what players they played with and a million other factors.

If there were a formula, every team in the NFL would have a guy that did nothing but spend his day working that formula.

This chart really just tells us what we already know: the bigger, faster, quicker, stronger, more athletic, more explosive a guy is, the better his chance for success.

You have to think this really isn't common knowledge.

If it were, there wouldn't be so many first round picks in that "high risk" category.
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jetskid007


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another point to make about Dion: he had to do the vertical with his less dominant hand due to the shoulder. This doesn't sound like much, but the NFL network guys were saying he would've easily been credited for another 2 inches had he used his domiant hand. Had he gotten that 34.5 mark, he'd probably move up a class.
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superbowlbound


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 3:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jetskid007 wrote:
Another point to make about Dion: he had to do the vertical with his less dominant hand due to the shoulder. This doesn't sound like much, but the NFL network guys were saying he would've easily been credited for another 2 inches had he used his domiant hand. Had he gotten that 34.5 mark, he'd probably move up a class.


jordan's not making it to #9 anyway
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green24


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 3:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jetskid007 wrote:
Another point to make about Dion: he had to do the vertical with his less dominant hand due to the shoulder. This doesn't sound like much, but the NFL network guys were saying he would've easily been credited for another 2 inches had he used his domiant hand. Had he gotten that 34.5 mark, he'd probably move up a class.

The thing that hurts Dion is his "twitch" rating. His shuttle time (4.35) is a little higher than his 10 yard split (1.57) would suggest. By comparison, Ziggy Ansah had a similar 10 yard split (1.56), but a quicker shuttle time (4.26).
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Raoul Duke


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At this point, I don't even care which pass rusher they take; I just want them to take the guy they think is going to be best with their first round pick. Be it Mingo, Jordan, Ansah or whomever, I feel they have to get the best guy to rush the passer at #9.

This defense has gone too long without that impact rusher. With the way Wilkerson is playing and how Coples appears to be progressing, adding that guy on the outside will make this defense elite; provided they keep most of the secondary together.
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quietjetsket


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 7:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Powell is only 3 points away from Dion Jordan. That means drafting Jordan in 1st round is overrated as Powell will get good value in 5th round.


It is not necessary to pass on Jordan for Powell. That is kind of mind-playing stuffs.
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quietjetsket


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Raoul Duke wrote:
At this point, I don't even care which pass rusher they take; I just want them to take the guy they think is going to be best with their first round pick. Be it Mingo, Jordan, Ansah or whomever, I feel they have to get the best guy to rush the passer at #9.

This defense has gone too long without that impact rusher. With the way Wilkerson is playing and how Coples appears to be progressing, adding that guy on the outside will make this defense elite; provided they keep most of the secondary together.


Well, Maybin and Gholston failed as top 11. Many good pass rushing OLB were after top 10.
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Raoul Duke


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

quietjetsket wrote:
Raoul Duke wrote:
At this point, I don't even care which pass rusher they take; I just want them to take the guy they think is going to be best with their first round pick. Be it Mingo, Jordan, Ansah or whomever, I feel they have to get the best guy to rush the passer at #9.

This defense has gone too long without that impact rusher. With the way Wilkerson is playing and how Coples appears to be progressing, adding that guy on the outside will make this defense elite; provided they keep most of the secondary together.


Well, Maybin and Gholston failed as top 11. Many good pass rushing OLB were after top 10.


By that logic that means that you should never bother drafting any player in the top 10 because there were busts at every position in the top 10 and future All Pro players drafted after pick #10.

Should the Broncos not have taken Von Miller because Maybin was a bust and other successful LB's were taken later in the draft?
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