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Ponder-iffic or Ponder-errible? the 2013 Pre-Season Debate.
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PurpleMugen


Joined: 05 Feb 2008
Posts: 4019
Location: Rutgers University
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

^Yet it is important to note that he has definitely had more poor-quality showings than high-quality ones. There is no moseying around that.
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twslhs20


Joined: 28 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 03, 2013 12:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
twslhs20 wrote:
Personally I think it was kind of lucky the scheduled fell the way it did last season. GB with pretty banged up on the last game. Not having Woodson or CMIII were big advantages for us.

Seems like they are always injured toward the end of the season.


That ^ might partially explain why Ponder played well against a very good D.

But all teams have players out or at less than 100% toward the end of the year; e.g. Harvin, Simpson.

What might explain why Ponder played well (e.g. against SF) early in the season, when few players were injured?


Yeah I mean he can beat a team that was in the SB. He played well that game, and I give him props.

But he can't beat Sea or Skins team depleted of their 2 best players in Orakpo and Carriker? Also being one of the worst pass defense.

Ponder was 3-5 on the road. 2-6 had it not been for special teams in Det.

He can't play away from home. He gets rattled or something.

And I'm not saying team wins in a QB stat. I just think it is a big reason why he didn't play well.
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swiss_vike


Joined: 29 Jul 2011
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 03, 2013 2:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

3-5 in away games is about average in the league. Nothing unusual there.

Coaching also is very different in away matches.

He had good times, he had bad times. This year, the good times must outshine the bad times by a good margin, otherwise, he'll be replaced. I'm sure our FO feels the same. I'm confident that he's capable. Others are not. It is what it is.
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 2114
PostPosted: Thu Jul 04, 2013 2:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Couple of interesting stats to add to the discussion...

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=525605

Elsewhere on this forum, someone compiled red zone passing stats over the past 4 years (minimum 100 plays). By conventional passer rating, Ponder ties Dalton for 6th, behind only Rodgers, PManning, Campbell, Brady and Brees.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/deep-pass-troubles

At Football Outsiders, the analyst writing the NFC North article looks at Ponder's trouble with deep passing last year and puts together a table listing the other QBs with bad numbers on deep passing since 2005.

The comparison is a bit of a stretch, since Ponder's performance is positive on both of their metrics (+108 DYAR and +10.7% DVOA -- which are still well below what most QBs have done throwing deep) and most of the other QBs on that table have hurt their teams overall (negative numbers). A couple of successful QBs are on the list who improved their downfield passing once they got better downfield receivers, including Matt Ryan. Many of the QBs on the list didn't survive as starters, including Tarvaris Jackson, who had the worst (or 2nd worst after Jamarcus Russell) performance on their list in 2007, way worse even than Ponder last year.
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vike daddy


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Joined: 12 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 04, 2013 7:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ron Jaworski gave Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder the No. 27 overall ranking (out of 32).

Jaworski: "The arrow is pointing upward as Ponder begins his third season as the Vikings starter. Ponder fits the profile so many are now talking about: the athletic movement quarterback who can beat you with his legs. Ponder is an opportunity runner, and he's shown the ability to burn some of the best defenses in the league.

"Ponder needs to make significant improvements as a pocket passer. Surprisingly, with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, he was not efficient off play-action. Ponder also had a tendency to be a beat late with his throws. At this point, he doesn't see the whole field with clarity and that led to too many throws into the teeth of the coverage. And he must execute versus the blitz much better than he did in 2012.

"You know what statistic really bothered me? Ponder had only 28 completions of 20 yards or more -- by far the fewest of any 16-game starter. I saw one in Week 17 that I really liked. It was a shot play, first-and-10 play-action out of base personnel.

"Overall, I like Ponder's skillset. He has plus arm strength with the ability to make every single throw. The Vikings have now provided Ponder with more weapons on the outside. [The 2013 season] is an important season for the third-year quarterback. It's time to play more consistently from the pocket. If Ponder does that, he could well be in my top 20 next year."


Wow! The top 20? Talk about being damned by faint praise….

Let's provide some specifics on what Jaworski referenced. Ponder threw the second-most play-action passes in the NFL last season (165), according to ESPN Stats & Information. He passed for half of his season total of touchdown passes (nine of 18 ) on such throws. But he also threw four interceptions and took eight sacks, finishing with an 88.2 passer rating and a 63.2 Total Quarterback Rating overall in play-action.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/57597/jaws-qb-rankings-christian-ponder-no-27
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twslhs20


Joined: 28 Feb 2008
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Location: Where the true depth of one's soul doesn't resonate with the world
PostPosted: Fri Jul 05, 2013 12:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
Couple of interesting stats to add to the discussion...

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=525605

Elsewhere on this forum, someone compiled red zone passing stats over the past 4 years (minimum 100 plays). By conventional passer rating, Ponder ties Dalton for 6th, behind only Rodgers, PManning, Campbell, Brady and Brees.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/deep-pass-troubles

At Football Outsiders, the analyst writing the NFC North article looks at Ponder's trouble with deep passing last year and puts together a table listing the other QBs with bad numbers on deep passing since 2005.

The comparison is a bit of a stretch, since Ponder's performance is positive on both of their metrics (+108 DYAR and +10.7% DVOA -- which are still well below what most QBs have done throwing deep) and most of the other QBs on that table have hurt their teams overall (negative numbers). A couple of successful QBs are on the list who improved their downfield passing once they got better downfield receivers, including Matt Ryan. Many of the QBs on the list didn't survive as starters, including Tarvaris Jackson, who had the worst (or 2nd worst after Jamarcus Russell) performance on their list in 2007, way worse even than Ponder last year.


I liked the football outsiders piece, and generally a lot of the columns they put out.

Ryan was probably an outlier in 09', he still played pretty well the year before.
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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 07, 2013 7:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PurpleMugen wrote:
^Yet it is important to note that he has definitely had more poor-quality showings than high-quality ones. There is no moseying around that.


What were the final splits? 10 bad, 6 good? 11 bad 5 good? Other?
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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 07, 2013 7:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:
Purplexing wrote:
twslhs20 wrote:
Personally I think it was kind of lucky the scheduled fell the way it did last season. GB with pretty banged up on the last game. Not having Woodson or CMIII were big advantages for us.

Seems like they are always injured toward the end of the season.


That ^ might partially explain why Ponder played well against a very good D.

But all teams have players out or at less than 100% toward the end of the year; e.g. Harvin, Simpson.

What might explain why Ponder played well (e.g. against SF) early in the season, when few players were injured?


Yeah I mean he can beat a team that was in the SB. He played well that game, and I give him props.

But he can't beat Sea or Skins team depleted of their 2 best players in Orakpo and Carriker? Also being one of the worst pass defense.

Ponder was 3-5 on the road. 2-6 had it not been for special teams in Det.

He can't play away from home. He gets rattled or something.

And I'm not saying team wins in a QB stat. I just think it is a big reason why he didn't play well.


Road. Road. Road.

Perhaps he needs coaching from Willie Nelson?
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vike daddy


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Joined: 12 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 07, 2013 8:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

it turns out there is a small lake in Teton National Park that is called... Christian Pond.



Christian Pond is a small freshwater lake in Grand Teton National Park in the U.S. State of Wyoming. The pond is known for its diversity of waterfowl including the Trumpeter Swan which nest there. Summer water temperatures are typically warmer than most lakes in Grand Teton National Park. Turbidity is low and pH levels are typically in the range of 9.6 (slightly alkaline). The pond is partially covered by water lilies and has a 3.2 mile circumferential trail.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Pond
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PaulWall_23


Joined: 08 Jan 2007
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Location: Mil,Wisc
PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Watching Sam and Christian Ponder questioning NFL players on the red carpet together is excruciating. I cant put my finger on exactly why? The chummy married subtle comments, his bowtie or the fact that he would even sign up to do it in the first place? Something about his face, just want to punch him in the suck hole.
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CDub


Joined: 01 Oct 2012
Posts: 543
Location: Iowa
PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PaulWall_23 wrote:
Watching Sam and Christian Ponder questioning NFL players on the red carpet together is excruciating. I cant put my finger on exactly why? The chummy married subtle comments, his bowtie or the fact that he would even sign up to do it in the first place? Something about his face, just want to punch him in the suck hole.


Laughing

IDK why he is doing this either to be honest.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Isn't it obvious? Wifey is making him do it. Happy wife, happy life.
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wcblack34


Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Posts: 6188
Location: Anywhere but Wisconsin.
PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CDub wrote:
PaulWall_23 wrote:
Watching Sam and Christian Ponder questioning NFL players on the red carpet together is excruciating. I cant put my finger on exactly why? The chummy married subtle comments, his bowtie or the fact that he would even sign up to do it in the first place? Something about his face, just want to punch him in the suck hole.


Laughing

IDK why he is doing this either to be honest.


Audition for a new job if he stinks up the Dome this year...
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PaulWall_23


Joined: 08 Jan 2007
Posts: 2667
Location: Mil,Wisc
PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Only way he could actually get inside lol. To me he is just a guy who is happy with his current life, not willing to put in the crazy amount of dedication it takes to be great. Just like Mark Sanchise. We'll see, I'd love to be wrong in this instance. Not a gifted athlete or a crazy competitor, an average QB just like he was at Flordia State.
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CDub


Joined: 01 Oct 2012
Posts: 543
Location: Iowa
PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wcblack34 wrote:
CDub wrote:
PaulWall_23 wrote:
Watching Sam and Christian Ponder questioning NFL players on the red carpet together is excruciating. I cant put my finger on exactly why? The chummy married subtle comments, his bowtie or the fact that he would even sign up to do it in the first place? Something about his face, just want to punch him in the suck hole.


Laughing

IDK why he is doing this either to be honest.


Audition for a new job if he stinks up the Dome this year...


Which I hope isn't the case...but we'll see. If he isn't mightily improved than I'd rather just move on if we have the chance to get a nice QB next year. Seems to me like even if he is like last year we'd still be out of that range.
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