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Ponder-iffic or Ponder-errible? the 2013 Pre-Season Debate.
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twslhs20


Joined: 28 Feb 2008
Posts: 12684
Location: Where the true depth of one's soul doesn't resonate with the world
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Our schedule is going to be brutal this season.

I think Ponder is really going to struggle against some of the premier defenses.

Also surprised to see TB up that high on that list. I think they could be in the market for a QB as well next season
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Teddy needs a Snickers, he looks like Ponder when he is hungry
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 12:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The pass defences we played last year were very good, which is one reason Ponder struggled in the middle of the year. From this list -- http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating -- he faced:
#1 Arizona
#2 GB (twice)
#3 Seattle
#4 Chicago (twice)
#8 Houston
#11 SF

That's 8 games against pass defenses in the top 11. Ponder played badly in 4 of those games (@GB, @Chicago, @Seattle, Arizona), pretty good in 2 (@Houston, home to Chicago), and great in 2 (SF and home to GB).

He only had 6 games against bad pass defences:
#21 Jacksonville
#22 Indianapolis
#24 Detroit (twice)
#25 Tennessee
#27 Tampa Bay

Ponder played well in most of those games (both Detroit games, Tennessee, Jacksonville, the last part of the Colts game) but had a terrible outing against the Bucs, who were playing well at that part of the season.

This year's schedule based on last year's stats for PR against:
#2 Chicago (twice)
#3 Seattle
#4 GB (twice)
#5 Baltimore
#7 Pittsburgh
#10 Cincinnati
#16 Cleveland
#17 Washington
#20 NYG
#23 Carolina
#24 Detroit (twice)
#29 Dallas
#31 Philadelphia

That's about the same as last year, 8 games against the top 10 and 5 against the bottom 10. Note that the NFC East is way worse than the NFC West, but the AFC North is way better than the AFC South, so it mostly evens out.

...

Also note that the Vikings pass defence is #26 on that list, worse than every team they played last year except Tampa Bay.
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CriminalMind


Joined: 25 Aug 2011
Posts: 5117
Location: Toronto, CA
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Schedule is comparable to last year.
Hell the main difference btw us and Packers are they play @SF and vsATL, while we play @SEA and vsCAR. I have both teams going 1-1 in these games. I think MIN beats PIT, tho it likely will be pro-steelers crowd in England.

Takecare of business at home and against sub .500 teams on the road, have a winning record (4-2 for example) against the NFCN, and that should be sufficient for another Wild Card.

assuming moderate Ponder improvement and AP healthy i have us pegged at 11-5 (was, @sea, @gb, @balt, @nyg) but i have GB going 12-4 assuming healthy Rodgers.
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chuck44


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Location: ohio
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 3:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

milanb wrote:
Quote:
Ponder last season was the only quarterback without a touchdown pass of 21-plus yards (minimum 10 throws), per NFL research. Over two seasons, he's 11 for 70 (15.7 percent) on attempts of 21-plus yards through the air. That's netted 436 yards, one touchdown, five interceptions and a 28.0 passer rating. Last season alone, Ponder was 5 of 34 on those longer throws, for a completion percentage of 14.7.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000214596/article/christian-ponders-deep-ball-troubles-with-the-vikings


yeah well troy Aikman only threw for 20 td's one season..that stat is about as useless as this one
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Conquest8089


Joined: 15 Jul 2008
Posts: 2702
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 6:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vikings lost Winfield because he doesn't think he can Win in Minnesota. Nobody in the league has faith in Ponder besides Vikings fans. He's a Quarterback that's inconsistent with mechanics & footwork. He's not accurate in the short area. And he cannot throw the ball deep. He struggles with reading progressions. Basically, guy cannot even survive in a Play Action Offense where all he sees is Single High Safety. It's unbelievable.

Listen to informed Analysts talk about why Adrian Peterson deserved the MVP. They're basically laughing at the way the box was stacked because Ponder's inept. Winfield wanted to win a Super Bowl, as did Percy Harvin.

The Vikings are content, Spielman won't loose his job over missing on Ponder. They've secured the new stadium, and what's the sense in finding a New Quarterback until the New Facility Opens? Realistically, Ponder was just tantalizing enough to have some think he could be a longterm solution. But he's not a quality Quarterback. Worst- he envisions himself a Game Manager yet he's turnover prone- Talk about a dichotomy.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 6:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you theory was correct in that players are avoiding the vikes because of ponder, why didn't loadholt bolt to the bears. Why did Jennings voluntarily agree to join the Vikings despite receiving a decent contract offer from the packers. Who cares what analysts say, they have no more insight to the future then any of us.
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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 7:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:
Our schedule is going to be brutal this season.

I think Ponder is really going to struggle against some of the premier defenses.

Also surprised to see TB up that high on that list. I think they could be in the market for a QB as well next season


It already is brutal, as there are only 7 home games.

Most QBs struggle against premier defenses. That is how the latter become known as 'premier defenses'.

As well as what/ who ?


Last edited by Purplexing on Tue Jul 02, 2013 8:02 am; edited 1 time in total
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 7:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
The pass defences we played last year were very good, which is one reason Ponder struggled in the middle of the year. From this list -- http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating -- he faced:
#1 Arizona
#2 GB (twice)
#3 Seattle
#4 Chicago (twice)
#8 Houston
#11 SF

That's 8 games against pass defenses in the top 11. Ponder played badly in 4 of those games (@GB, @Chicago, @Seattle, Arizona), pretty good in 2 (@Houston, home to Chicago), and great in 2 (SF and home to GB).



About 3-4 months ago, when the Ponder debate was raging in full force, unlike today when it is only raging in 3/4 force due to the summer heat, I noted that Ponder played his 5 worst games, per QB rating, against the top 4 pass defenses, as per QB rating against.

Passer rating and QB rating are similar, so this ^ is no surprise.

I also noted that the majority of Ponder's poorer games last year, per the same criteria, were AWAY games, against those good pass defenses.

It might be interesting and enlightening to view Ponder's stats against teams who could not defend AP, thus Ponder's passing wasn't needed as much as in other games.

One thing to note is that the ORDER of the Vikings 2012 schedule resulted in a streak of games where Ponder played poorly, with an exception or two. If the Vikings faced the 4 best pass defenses at various points in their 2012 schedule, Ponder's poor performances would not have yielded a 'bad streak' that gained the attention of the media and fans. Timing is everything.

Carry on.
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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 7:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
If you theory was correct in that players are avoiding the vikes because of ponder, why didn't loadholt bolt to the bears. Why did Jennings voluntarily agree to join the Vikings despite receiving a decent contract offer from the packers. Who cares what analysts say, they have no more insight to the future then any of us.


Further, if his hypothesis had merit, most free agents would have headed to Seattle, SF, Balt, ...

Truth be told, most FAs headed for the $$$$$$...

But, of course, FAs who have their choice among teams offering EQUAL $$$$ will often chose a city they prefer for the location and climate, teammates and coaches they know from other teams or from college days, as well as the chance of earning more $$ in playoff games.

Who cares what sports analysts say? Their sponsors, who hope what they say is controversial and draws a lot of 'traffic' to their website, radio frequency, or TV channel.... to see/ hear/ read their ads.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 8:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Conquest8089 wrote:
Vikings lost Winfield because he doesn't think he can Win in Minnesota. Nobody in the league has faith in Ponder besides Vikings fans. He's a Quarterback that's inconsistent with mechanics & footwork. He's not accurate in the short area. And he cannot throw the ball deep. He struggles with reading progressions. Basically, guy cannot even survive in a Play Action Offense where all he sees is Single High Safety. It's unbelievable.

Listen to informed Analysts talk about why Adrian Peterson deserved the MVP. They're basically laughing at the way the box was stacked because Ponder's inept. Winfield wanted to win a Super Bowl, as did Percy Harvin.

The Vikings are content, Spielman won't loose his job over missing on Ponder. They've secured the new stadium, and what's the sense in finding a New Quarterback until the New Facility Opens? Realistically, Ponder was just tantalizing enough to have some think he could be a longterm solution. But he's not a quality Quarterback. Worst- he envisions himself a Game Manager yet he's turnover prone- Talk about a dichotomy.


OK, I'll talk about a dichotomy;

You listed your many perceived faults of Ponder.
Then you said he was 'just tantalizing enough' (noted in red).

Based on your list of faults, the person(s) thinking Ponder is 'tantalizing enough' must be blind and ... completely unable to ascertain / select NFL talent... hmm.
Confused
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twslhs20


Joined: 28 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is a common misconception that Ponder played well at Detroit. He hardly moved the ball. Neither Peterson or Ponder could get into the end-zone.

That game was one on special teams alone.
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BWG VIKE wrote:
Teddy needs a Snickers, he looks like Ponder when he is hungry
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twslhs20


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Personally I think it was kind of lucky the scheduled fell the way it did last season. GB with pretty banged up on the last game. Not having Woodson or CMIII were big advantages for us.

Seems like they are always injured toward the end of the season.
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Teddy needs a Snickers, he looks like Ponder when he is hungry
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heydudemanG


Joined: 14 Mar 2007
Posts: 2934
Location: Minneapolis
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 12:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
The pass defences we played last year were very good, which is one reason Ponder struggled in the middle of the year. From this list -- http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating -- he faced:
#1 Arizona
#2 GB (twice)
#3 Seattle
#4 Chicago (twice)
#8 Houston
#11 SF

That's 8 games against pass defenses in the top 11. Ponder played badly in 4 of those games (@GB, @Chicago, @Seattle, Arizona), pretty good in 2 (@Houston, home to Chicago), and great in 2 (SF and home to GB).

He only had 6 games against bad pass defences:
#21 Jacksonville
#22 Indianapolis
#24 Detroit (twice)
#25 Tennessee
#27 Tampa Bay

Ponder played well in most of those games (both Detroit games, Tennessee, Jacksonville, the last part of the Colts game) but had a terrible outing against the Bucs, who were playing well at that part of the season.

This year's schedule based on last year's stats for PR against:
#2 Chicago (twice)
#3 Seattle
#4 GB (twice)
#5 Baltimore
#7 Pittsburgh
#10 Cincinnati
#16 Cleveland
#17 Washington
#20 NYG
#23 Carolina
#24 Detroit (twice)
#29 Dallas
#31 Philadelphia

That's about the same as last year, 8 games against the top 10 and 5 against the bottom 10. Note that the NFC East is way worse than the NFC West, but the AFC North is way better than the AFC South, so it mostly evens out.

...

Also note that the Vikings pass defence is #26 on that list, worse than every team they played last year except Tampa Bay.


Its that old question of the chicken and the egg.

Was Christian playing well and he just played amazing defenses so he himself was statistically poor, or were those defenses statistically amazing because they played quarterbacks like Christian.
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SteelKing728


Joined: 23 Aug 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Conquest8089 wrote:
Vikings lost Winfield because he doesn't think he can Win in Minnesota. Nobody in the league has faith in Ponder besides Vikings fans. He's a Quarterback that's inconsistent with mechanics & footwork. He's not accurate in the short area. And he cannot throw the ball deep. He struggles with reading progressions. Basically, guy cannot even survive in a Play Action Offense where all he sees is Single High Safety. It's unbelievable.


Well none of this is correct. Laughing

Quote:
Listen to informed Analysts talk about why Adrian Peterson deserved the MVP. They're basically laughing at the way the box was stacked because Ponder's inept. Winfield wanted to win a Super Bowl, as did Percy Harvin.


Oh, Seattle already won the Superbowl this year? So I guess the 2013 season is already over. Thanks.

and since its apparent you didn't actually watch the Vikings this year, Adrian Peterson won MVP because his team made the playoffs. The reason we made the playoffs was because of the improvement made from Christian Ponder the last 4 games of the year, a steady defense and good special teams.

Quote:
The Vikings are content, Spielman won't loose his job over missing on Ponder. They've secured the new stadium, and what's the sense in finding a New Quarterback until the New Facility Opens? Realistically, Ponder was just tantalizing enough to have some think he could be a longterm solution. But he's not a quality Quarterback. Worst- he envisions himself a Game Manager yet he's turnover prone- Talk about a dichotomy. Laughing


content with what? an unproven QB? His career, just like Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton, Collin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin and Ryan Tannehill are all unproven, and none should be considered "Franchise QBs" right now. We don't know how their careers will go, believe it or not.

and turnover prone? Not really. He's just inconsistent.

but considering all the grammatical errors made in this post, and likely the lack of time to fully think it through, I really don't think I can take you seriously. Thanks, come again!
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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:
Personally I think it was kind of lucky the scheduled fell the way it did last season. GB with pretty banged up on the last game. Not having Woodson or CMIII were big advantages for us.

Seems like they are always injured toward the end of the season.


That ^ might partially explain why Ponder played well against a very good D.

But all teams have players out or at less than 100% toward the end of the year; e.g. Harvin, Simpson.

What might explain why Ponder played well (e.g. against SF) early in the season, when few players were injured?
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