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Ponder-iffic or Ponder-errible? the 2013 Pre-Season Debate.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 11:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dr LoveVikings wrote:
FINALLY...some positive press about Ponder...and the Vikings in general...

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000214562/article/christian-ponder-will-lead-minnesota-vikings-in-pivotal-season


While it is generally positive, the article does a good recap of Ponder's experience to date in Minnesota.

I think the positive aspect is subtle. There is less doubt in the mind of this author, and that may also give the article a positive tone.
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marshpit23


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 2:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^ agreed! I believe Mr. Ponder will do well this year! I'm personally looking for progression this year! With said weapons, I believe he will progress to a satisfactory status (average/to above average QBR).
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 8:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Desmond Bishop: “I think [Ponder's] close. I think he’s nipping on the heels of a lot of the good ones. I think, obviously, he has to go out and prove it this year. But I think the fact he can throw, he can make all the throws, the fact that he has mobility, will help him as well. To be a good quarterback nowadays, I feel you have to have a certain level of mobility. With that, and with his experience, I think he’s going to be a good player.”

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikings/blogs/212980241.html
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrian Peterson: "[Ponder] doesn't lack leadership or the ability to take control. Even last year. He's building the confidence [to say] 'It's my team and I have to be the leader.' He's displaying it a lot. He displayed it last year. I like what I'm seeing."

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000214562/article/christian-ponder-will-lead-minnesota-vikings-in-pivotal-season
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milanb


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 9:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Ponder last season was the only quarterback without a touchdown pass of 21-plus yards (minimum 10 throws), per NFL research. Over two seasons, he's 11 for 70 (15.7 percent) on attempts of 21-plus yards through the air. That's netted 436 yards, one touchdown, five interceptions and a 28.0 passer rating. Last season alone, Ponder was 5 of 34 on those longer throws, for a completion percentage of 14.7.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000214596/article/christian-ponders-deep-ball-troubles-with-the-vikings
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twslhs20


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 11:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

milanb wrote:
Quote:
Ponder last season was the only quarterback without a touchdown pass of 21-plus yards (minimum 10 throws), per NFL research. Over two seasons, he's 11 for 70 (15.7 percent) on attempts of 21-plus yards through the air. That's netted 436 yards, one touchdown, five interceptions and a 28.0 passer rating. Last season alone, Ponder was 5 of 34 on those longer throws, for a completion percentage of 14.7.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000214596/article/christian-ponders-deep-ball-troubles-with-the-vikings


Nothing we didn't already know.

Just waiting for the season to start now.
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:
Nothing we didn't already know.

Just waiting for the season to start now.

everything that fans and pundits are saying now, be it pro, con, or neutral is nothing we didn't already know. there's really nothing any of us, or media talking heads, can say with any true authority about Ponder's ability to improve.

so yes, we wait for the season to start to get some real data.
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CriminalMind


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 9:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think if Ponder can be league average QB this season overall (#16/17 in the rankings), I think Vikings have enough talent around him to win the North.

In a rankings the 16 & 17 & 18 "Best QB" in the league are Culter & Rivers & Smith
Thats what he needs to aim for this coming year.

Right now Ponder is in the #25 range
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twslhs20


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 9:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CriminalMind wrote:
I think if Ponder can be league average QB this season overall (#16/17 in the rankings), I think Vikings have enough talent around him to win the North.

In a rankings the 16 & 17 & 18 "Best QB" in the league are Culter & Rivers & Smith
Thats what he needs to aim for this coming year.

Right now Ponder is in the #25 range


Rivers>Ponder.

I'd say its a coin flip with the other two.
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SteelKing728


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 11:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really don't care much for Jay Cutler or Phillip Rivers, but yeah, If Ponder could consistently stay around that level of play, we very well should win the NFC North.

and then the playoffs are a whole new story. You don't need to be great in the regular season to be great in the playoffs. The Giants and Ravens proved this the last 2 seasons.
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Virginia Viking


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SteelKing728 wrote:
I really don't care much for Jay Cutler or Phillip Rivers, but yeah, If Ponder could consistently stay around that level of play, we very well should win the NFC North.

and then the playoffs are a whole new story. You don't need to be great in the regular season to be great in the playoffs. The Giants and Ravens proved this the last 2 seasons.


I think we will see Ponder's role to be very similar to Alex Smith's with the 2011 49'ers. He will be expected to manage a power oriented offense, with the occasional big play. He will be expected to use his legs. And the Vikings will rely on a developing, talented defense.

If he can play efficiently...the Vikings will be right there with the top of the NFC.
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 30, 2013 4:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

By just about any measure, Ponder was a middle-of-the-road statistical quarterback at best. He was 21st in attempts, 18th in completions, 13th in completion percentage, 25th in passing yards, 31st in average gain, 23rd in touchdown passes, 21st in touchdown percentage, tied for 13th in interceptions, 15th in interception percentage and 21st in passer rating.

However, when it came to red-zone passing – passes thrown inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, only six NFL quarterbacks threw more passes than Ponder’s 75 – Drew Brees (102), Matt Ryan (92), Peyton Manning (88 ), Tom Brady (87), Matthew Stafford (87) and Eli Manning (84). He tied with two other quarterbacks – Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo.

It doesn’t end there for Ponder. His 44 red zone completions ranked sixth, behind only Brees (66), Ryan (59), Peyton Manning (52), Brady (52) and Rodgers (47) – pretty rare air indeed, since four of them have won Super Bowls and the other (Ryan) is playoff-tested.

Perhaps most surprising was that Ponder threw 18 red zone touchdowns, which tied him for eighth among NFL QBs. The only quarterbacks who threw more were the same usual cast of suspects and a couple of new faces – Brees (34), Peyton Manning (28 ), Rodgers (26), Ryan (25), Brady (24), Josh Freeman (21) and Andy Dalton (20).

http://min.scout.com/2/1303929.html


the article does go on to show that Ponder's interception rate in the red zone is far above the other QB's he was being compared to.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 30, 2013 10:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vike daddy wrote:
By just about any measure, Ponder was a middle-of-the-road statistical quarterback at best. He was 21st in attempts, 18th in completions, 13th in completion percentage, 25th in passing yards, 31st in average gain, 23rd in touchdown passes, 21st in touchdown percentage, tied for 13th in interceptions, 15th in interception percentage and 21st in passer rating.

However, when it came to red-zone passing – passes thrown inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, only six NFL quarterbacks threw more passes than Ponder’s 75 – Drew Brees (102), Matt Ryan (92), Peyton Manning (88 ), Tom Brady (87), Matthew Stafford (87) and Eli Manning (84). He tied with two other quarterbacks – Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo.

It doesn’t end there for Ponder. His 44 red zone completions ranked sixth, behind only Brees (66), Ryan (59), Peyton Manning (52), Brady (52) and Rodgers (47) – pretty rare air indeed, since four of them have won Super Bowls and the other (Ryan) is playoff-tested.

Perhaps most surprising was that Ponder threw 18 red zone touchdowns, which tied him for eighth among NFL QBs. The only quarterbacks who threw more were the same usual cast of suspects and a couple of new faces – Brees (34), Peyton Manning (28 ), Rodgers (26), Ryan (25), Brady (24), Josh Freeman (21) and Andy Dalton (20).

http://min.scout.com/2/1303929.html


the article does go on to show that Ponder's interception rate in the red zone is far above the other QB's he was being compared to.


Ponder: A Purple Purveyor of partially credible par-for-the-course passer stats, leading to polemical presuppositions.
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wcblack34


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 30, 2013 11:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
vike daddy wrote:
By just about any measure, Ponder was a middle-of-the-road statistical quarterback at best. He was 21st in attempts, 18th in completions, 13th in completion percentage, 25th in passing yards, 31st in average gain, 23rd in touchdown passes, 21st in touchdown percentage, tied for 13th in interceptions, 15th in interception percentage and 21st in passer rating.

However, when it came to red-zone passing – passes thrown inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, only six NFL quarterbacks threw more passes than Ponder’s 75 – Drew Brees (102), Matt Ryan (92), Peyton Manning (88 ), Tom Brady (87), Matthew Stafford (87) and Eli Manning (84). He tied with two other quarterbacks – Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo.

It doesn’t end there for Ponder. His 44 red zone completions ranked sixth, behind only Brees (66), Ryan (59), Peyton Manning (52), Brady (52) and Rodgers (47) – pretty rare air indeed, since four of them have won Super Bowls and the other (Ryan) is playoff-tested.

Perhaps most surprising was that Ponder threw 18 red zone touchdowns, which tied him for eighth among NFL QBs. The only quarterbacks who threw more were the same usual cast of suspects and a couple of new faces – Brees (34), Peyton Manning (28 ), Rodgers (26), Ryan (25), Brady (24), Josh Freeman (21) and Andy Dalton (20).

http://min.scout.com/2/1303929.html


the article does go on to show that Ponder's interception rate in the red zone is far above the other QB's he was being compared to.


Ponder: A Purple Purveyor of partially credible par-for-the-course passer stats, leading to polemical presuppositions.


Purplexing plopping perplexing parlance, proving proficient prowess of prose!
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 12:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vike daddy wrote:
By just about any measure, Ponder was a middle-of-the-road statistical quarterback at best. He was 21st in attempts, 18th in completions, 13th in completion percentage, 25th in passing yards, 31st in average gain, 23rd in touchdown passes, 21st in touchdown percentage, tied for 13th in interceptions, 15th in interception percentage and 21st in passer rating.

However, when it came to red-zone passing – passes thrown inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, only six NFL quarterbacks threw more passes than Ponder’s 75 – Drew Brees (102), Matt Ryan (92), Peyton Manning (88 ), Tom Brady (87), Matthew Stafford (87) and Eli Manning (84). He tied with two other quarterbacks – Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo.

It doesn’t end there for Ponder. His 44 red zone completions ranked sixth, behind only Brees (66), Ryan (59), Peyton Manning (52), Brady (52) and Rodgers (47) – pretty rare air indeed, since four of them have won Super Bowls and the other (Ryan) is playoff-tested.

Perhaps most surprising was that Ponder threw 18 red zone touchdowns, which tied him for eighth among NFL QBs. The only quarterbacks who threw more were the same usual cast of suspects and a couple of new faces – Brees (34), Peyton Manning (28 ), Rodgers (26), Ryan (25), Brady (24), Josh Freeman (21) and Andy Dalton (20).

http://min.scout.com/2/1303929.html


the article does go on to show that Ponder's interception rate in the red zone is far above the other QB's he was being compared to.


Meh, volume/bulk stats are just as misleading in Ponder's favor as otherwise.

If Ponder had more attempts in the red zone than most other QBs, that's a function of having more drives that made it that far, which is a credit to the entire offense (some to Ponder but more to AP), and calling more passes than runs in that situation (which is the somewhat surprising truth, AP had 59 rushing attempts, Ponder 69 passes plus some scrambles in the red zone). Having more attempts makes it easy enough to get more completions, TDs, etc.

Some people complain about passer rating, but it's actually a useful indicator of performance in the red zone: short passes are usually contested, not too easy, YAC is minimized because of the short field, and TD and INT percentages are crucial. PR numbers are generally a little higher in the red zone, since TDs are easier to get, but completion percentages and especially YPA numbers tend to be lower, which balances it out a bit. Keeping that in mind, let's look at the actual stats.

(splits from ESPN, numbers a little different than the article quoted here, not sure why)

from OPP 19-GOAL (red zone)
Ponder 41/69 for 246, 59.4%, 3.57 YPA, 17 TDs, 2 INTs, PR 94.0

Compare to the rest of the division:
Rodgers 41/66 for 261, 62.1%, 3.96 YPA, 24 TDs, 0 INTs, PR 109.9
Cutler 25/47 for 189, 53.2%, 4.02 YPA, 11 TDs, 0 INTs, PR 102.7
Stafford 39/83 for 297, 47.0%, 3.58 YPA, 15 TDs, 4 INTs, PR 75.7

Ponder looks decent there but not world beating. His numbers would be better than Cutler's if it wasn't for the INTs. His accuracy is comparable to Rodgers. His numbers are clearly better than Stafford's, who was throwing all the time in part because they didn't have a decent RB.

I found one list of team passer rating in the red zone: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-rating-in-red-zone/2012/.
The Vikings were 14th, compare to GB 2nd (Saints were 1st), Bears 6th and Lions 24th. The only 2012 playoff teams who finished lower than the Vikings on this stats were the Niners (20th), Colts (21st) and Ravens (29th).

Here's a list of individual QB performances in the red zone: http://www.coltsauthority.com/2013-articles/may/2012-red-zone-performance-quarterbacks.html, which doesn't restrict by minimum attempts and so has 39 QBs on the list.
Ponder is 18th, just behind Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub. Brees, Rodgers, Wilson, Brady, RG3 are the top 5. Among those scoring lower than Ponder: EManning, Luck, Tannehill, Romo, Bradford, Kaepernick, Flacco, Newton.

So it looks like Ponder isn't really top 10 in the red zone but still did reasonably well, middle of the pack.
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