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Ponder-iffic or Ponder-errible? the 2013 Pre-Season Debate.
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2013 10:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

perrynoid wrote:
One of my favorite quotes used to be "Figures don't lie, but liars sometimes figure."

i like the one that goes...

"statistics are like bikinis. what they reveal is intriguing, but what they hide is essential."
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SteelKing728


Joined: 23 Aug 2008
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PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2013 10:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
SteelKing728 wrote:
Just another reason I don't pay that much attention to stats.

You can make anyone sound great or awful, depending on how you display those stats.

From the looks of it, the writer did barely any research, and thus when compared to what Krauser pointed out, there was no point made.

If Ponder can be more efficient, and step it up and play at a consistent level, I have pretty confident in saying we'll go 10-6 or better this year.


100% of stats are 'made up'..... from data.

How would you determine 'more efficient'?

Why would you bother keeping track of teams' W-L records if you don't pay much attention to stats?
Wink


I don't pay much attention to stats, because most of what I see just aren't that important to me. I really don't care if Player A ran for 175 yards, but Player B only ran for 168 yards. Does that really tell me anything? Nope, not really.

Thats what kind of makes this awkward. I know stats are important. Better teams typically have better stats, but I just don't read that much into it.

Perhaps the cliche that VD is better suited for this, and I'll leave it at that.

I want to see general improvement from Ponder. He needs to be patient and not try to force a pass that isn't there, like what we saw against Tennessee or the first game against Greenbay, when he threw that awful INT in the redzone. Thankfully he does seem to have a short mind for the game.

He doesn't need to dominate a game, he just needs to be more consistent. Our team looked hopeless when he 'vanished' in games, like against Seattle.

He has all the tools to be a very good QB. Its just the matter of fact of putting it all together.
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twslhs20


Joined: 28 Feb 2008
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Location: Where the true depth of one's soul doesn't resonate with the world
PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2013 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vike daddy wrote:
perrynoid wrote:
One of my favorite quotes used to be "Figures don't lie, but liars sometimes figure."

i like the one that goes...

"statistics are like bikinis. what they reveal is intriguing, but what they hide is essential."


Well that depends.

We talking Sara Jean Underwood or Oprah?
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2013 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Two years since the Titans used a first-round draft pick on quarterback Jake Locker, these are the bottom-line results: Locker has started 11 games, and the Titans have won four of them. That, obviously, is not good enough. So Locker says he has to get better. And the key, Locker said in an interview with Andrew Siciliano on NFL Network, is consistency.

Locker: “I can improve in a lot of areas, and I think that first and foremost, just find a way to be consistent. There were a lot of third downs, situations where if we would have converted and kept drives alive it would have changed the game. A lot of times it just came down to one or two plays, and finding ways to maybe not make the flashy play, but just find a way to move the sticks.”

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/05/14/jake-locker-i-have-to-find-a-way-to-be-more-consistent/
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twslhs20


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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2013 11:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just watching Ponder in the 1st half against the Jags is pretty excruciating. I still can't believe it took OT to beat this team.
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swiss_vike


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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2013 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:
Just watching Ponder in the 1st half against the Jags is pretty excruciating. I still can't believe it took OT to beat this team.


And watching him against GB in the dome was pretty good. We Should neither dismiss the good and the bad. At least there was quite some progress from game 1 to game 16.

Btw: how did u like Gabbert in that game?
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Kellerman


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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2013 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:
Just watching Ponder in the 1st half against the Jags is pretty excruciating. I still can't believe it took OT to beat this team.


That first game was pretty bad. I can't believe the Vikes had to go to the wire to win against the second worst team in the league.

Luckily, we mostly got better over the season.
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twslhs20


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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2013 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

swiss_vike wrote:
twslhs20 wrote:
Just watching Ponder in the 1st half against the Jags is pretty excruciating. I still can't believe it took OT to beat this team.


And watching him against GB in the dome was pretty good. We Should neither dismiss the good and the bad. At least there was quite some progress from game 1 to game 16.

Btw: how did u like Gabbert in that game?


I wouldn't say progress with as streaky as he was. Ponder did seem to settle down on the last drive in the 2nd half.

When Gabbert had time to throw looked damn good. Only 1 under thrown ball sightly. Shorts had his fingertips on it too. His WRs were dropping everything, and Robison and Allen were always in his face.
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milanb


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 2:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

(moved from Joe Webb thread)


Krauser wrote:
Volume stats are misleading.


I wholeheartedly disagree. Yards and points are hard to come by in this league.


Krauser wrote:

The Vikings were 31st in team passing (total yards) in part because they were 28th in total attempts (Redskins, Niners and Seahawks were the bottom 3 in attempts). They were 8th in rushing attempts and 2nd in rushing yards, which is one reason why they didn't try to pass so much.

The Vikings weren't terrible in terms of production when they did throw the ball, but they weren't great either. Vikings team passer rating of 81.2 ranked 22nd in the league, right between the Lions and Bears. The Packers, Broncos, Redskins, Niners and Seahawks all broke 100 passer rating, while the bottom ranked Chiefs and Cardinals were down at 63.

Ponder didn't light up the league but he was roughly as good as Cutler and Stafford last year, it's just that they threw the ball more. Way more, for Stafford -- 445 attempts (22 TD, 17 INT) compared to 300 for Ponder (18 TD, 12 INT)


Your argument is predicated on two rather optimistic assumptions:

1. The premise that Ponder's own performance had nothing to do with his relatively small number of pass attempts.

2. The premise that it somehow makes sense to take Ponder's 30-odd pass attempts per game and project what he might have done with 40 pass attempts per game. That is, you're assuming that Ponder would have maintained the same level of efficiency if he had thrown the ball an extra ten times a game.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I didn't say volume stats are useless, just misleading. They need to be taken in context.

CJ Spiller and Chris Johnson had almost the same amount of total rushing yards in 2012: 1244 vs 1243. Spiller amassed that total on 204 carries (6.0 YPC), Johnson had 276 carries (4.5 YPC). Who's the more valuable back? Don't think many people would pick Johnson with those numbers.

When efficiency is comparable, volume stats are important. Adrian Peterson had the same YPC as CJ Spiller, 6.0. But he had 348 attempts for 2097 yards, not 204 for 1244. No one would argue Peterson didn't have a better year than Spiller, he's clearly more valuable for performing at that high level (the two tied for highest YPC for RBs in the league) over 50% more carries.

...

It's true that if Ponder was better last year, the Vikings probably would've passed more, and he'd have better total volume stats. The same would be true if they'd had better receivers: first 8 games, before Harvin's injury, Ponder had 262 attempts, last 8 games, 221 attempts (20% less). And the same would've been true if Adrian Peterson hadn't been dominating the league in the 2nd half of the season: first 8 games, 151 attempts; last 8, 197 attempts (30% more). It was a combination of things, it wasn't all on Ponder.

Ponder wasn't great last year, but he wasn't terrible overall (he did have a few terrible games). In terms of efficiency, he was a little better than Matthew Stafford (a former #1 overall pick throwing to the best WR in the league). In terms of overall volume, he was way worse than Stafford, but that's because Stafford threw the ball 727 times, and Ponder only 483. Why did Stafford throw so much? In part because he's a gunslinger and Ponder's a game manager, and because Ponder has AP to handoff to and Stafford has no one, and because Stafford has Megatron to throw to and Ponder had no one after Harvin went down. It's a combination of things.
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wcblack34


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ugh. Can the season start already so one side can be proven right or wrong and we can find something else to beat to death?
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HighHopes


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wcblack34 wrote:
Ugh. Can the season start already so one side can be proven right or wrong and we can find something else to beat to death?

Sadly, Im willing to bet Ponder will do slightly better and we will just have the debate all over again next year. Because it will be enough to keep supporting, but not enough to think he isnt bad. lol
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VikeManDan


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HighHopes wrote:
wcblack34 wrote:
Ugh. Can the season start already so one side can be proven right or wrong and we can find something else to beat to death?

Sadly, Im willing to bet Ponder will do slightly better and we will just have the debate all over again next year. Because it will be enough to keep supporting, but not enough to think he isnt bad. lol


At which point management should be looking at options, I AM a Ponder supporter but he's got this season to improve and make his mark or I'm looking at the availabe options.
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TearsOfPurple


Joined: 17 Oct 2010
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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

VikeManDan wrote:
HighHopes wrote:
wcblack34 wrote:
Ugh. Can the season start already so one side can be proven right or wrong and we can find something else to beat to death?

Sadly, Im willing to bet Ponder will do slightly better and we will just have the debate all over again next year. Because it will be enough to keep supporting, but not enough to think he isnt bad. lol


At which point management should be looking at options, I AM a Ponder supporter but he's got this season to improve and make his mark or I'm looking at the availabe options.


Sadly it's not that easy.
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twslhs20


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In the last 20 years The SB winning QBs have been.

Troy Aikman x3
Steve Young
Brett Favre
John Elway x 2
Kurt Warner
Trent Dilfer
Tom Brady x 3
Brad Johnson
Big Ben x2
P. Manning
E. Manning x 2
Drew Brees
Aaron Rodgers
Flacco

25% of those championships came at the hands of non Elite QBs. Can it be done sure? Sure. You wanna bet money Ponder can get it done?
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