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Ponder-iffic or Ponder-errible? the 2013 Pre-Season Debate.
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CriminalMind


Joined: 25 Aug 2011
Posts: 4896
Location: Toronto, CA
PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2013 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I dont know if Ponder has the stuff to throw him in the conversation for top 10 QB. I think 10-15 QB gets us a wild card every year and not much else. I think if we want a chance at putting a top 10 QB on this team, we're going to have to take a risk on another rookie in the 2014 draft.

This is something I would not mind.
I certaintly dont want to antee up for Ponder as a long term starter if he cant crack a better ranking.
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 1971
PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2013 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Last year spoke to the role Ponder played with the Vikings. It was pretty easy to decipher Ė even for non-football fans. If he doesnít make mistakes, the Vikings win. If he does, they lose. In 16 starts last year, Ponder didnít throw an interception in eight of them. The Vikings went 7-1 in those games. In the eight games he did throw a pick, the Vikings were 3-5.


Argh, these stats. Correlation is not causation, seriously. Those stats equally show that the Vikings weren't a dominant team, so Ponder had little margin for error.

Quote:
Few quarterbacks have such night-and-day statistics. Great quarterbacks can throw a couple of early interceptions and come back and win games by catching fire in the second half.


Um, citation needed?

Let's play compare, see if we find "night and day" statistics among top flight QBs last year. I will bet $100 that the writer of this article didn't do the research that I'm about to.

...Joe Flacco (ignoring the last game in which he barely played and they didn't try to win):

In 15 starts last year, Flacco didnít throw an interception in 6 of them. The Ravens went 6-0 in those games. In the 9 games he did throw a pick, the Ravens were 4-5.

...Drew Brees:

In 16 starts last year, Brees didnít throw an interception in 5 of them. The Saints went 4-1 in those games. In the 11 games he did throw a pick, the Saints were 3-8.

...Cam Newton:

In 16 starts last year, Newton didnít throw an interception in 9 of them. The Panthers went 5-4 in those games. In the 7 games he did throw a pick, the Panthers were 2-5.

...Andy Dalton:

In 16 starts last year, Dalton didnít throw an interception in 5 of them. The Bengals went 5-0 in those games. In the 11 games he did throw a pick, the Bengals were 5-6.

...Jay Cutler:

In 16 starts last year, Cutler didnít throw an interception in 6 of them. The Bears went 5-1 in those games. In the 10 games he did throw a pick, the Bears were 5-5.

...Russell Wilson:

In 16 starts last year, Wilson didnít throw an interception in 9 of them. The Seahawks went 8-1 in those games. In the 7 games he did throw a pick, the Seahawks were 3-4.

...total W-L records for those 6 QBs:
No INTs: 33-7
1 or more INTs: 22-33

Is that a "night and day" difference?

You can find a similar trend even among the best QBs in league, playing on teams that won a lot last year:

...Tom Brady:

In 16 starts last year, Brady didnít throw an interception in 11 of them. The Patriots went 10-1 in those games. In the 5 games he did throw a pick, the Patriots were 2-3.

etc...

I don't have time to do the same for the sacked stats, but you get the point.

Later in the article, the same author wants to argue that 250 yards passing is the standard for competence for an NFL QB, points out how many times Ponder threw for less than 150 or less than 100. Let's look at that.

Ponder throws for >250: Vikings record 2-2
Ponder throws for >200: Vikings record 4-3
Ponder throws for <150: Vikings record 4-2
Ponder throws for <100: Vikings record 2-1 (!!!)

Well maybe that's because Adrian was dominant. Let's flip it around and look at passing yards per game by opponents against the Vikings:

Gabbert 260 (Vikings W)
Luck 224 (L)
Smith 204 (W)
Stafford 319 (W)
Hasselbeck 200 (W)
Griffin 182 (L) -- only 182
Skelton 262 (W)
Freeman 262 (L)
Wilson 173 (L) -- only 173
Stafford 329 (W)
Cutler 188 (L)
Rodgers 286 (L)
Cutler 260 (W)
Bradford 377 (W)
Schaub 178 (W)
Rodgers 365 (W)

Break into groups:
>300 yards against: Vikings record 4-0 (!!!)
>250 yards against: Vikings record 7-2
<250 yards against: Vikings record 3-4
<200 yards against: Vikings record 1-3 (including crushing losses to the Redskins, Seahawks and Bears)

...it's almost like these stats don't mean what this guy wants them to mean...
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vikingsrule


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Joined: 15 Nov 2005
Posts: 47914
Location: Land of 10,000 Lakes!
PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2013 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chances are if you are behind, you will be throwing the ball a lot more. Therefore, more likely to lose.

If you're holding defenses to under 200 pass yards, chances are they arent passing much because of a lead and are milking the clock.

Ponder throwing for 300 yards consistently probably doesnt play to the strengths of the Vikings, and probably isnt ideal, and that is having a ball control offense and hopefully a stout defense.

Passing yardage means very little, but Ponder has to improve efficiency numbers and the ability to hit more passes down field. Hopefully the subtraction of Harvin, and additions of Patterson/Jennings help in this regard.
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 1971
PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2013 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agree, Ponder absolutely needs to play better (more efficiently), just pointing out that the stats offered in the article don't support the conclusion that he was unusually bad last year.
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SteelKing728


Joined: 23 Aug 2008
Posts: 14353
Location: Gibsonia, Pennsylvania
PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2013 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just another reason I don't pay that much attention to stats.

You can make anyone sound great or awful, depending on how you display those stats.

From the looks of it, the writer did barely any research, and thus when compared to what Krauser pointed out, there was no point made.

If Ponder can be more efficient, and step it up and play at a consistent level, I have pretty confident in saying we'll go 10-6 or better this year.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2013 2:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like this Krauser guy!
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vikesnewcoach11


Joined: 12 Feb 2008
Posts: 1580
Location: Watertown, New York
PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2013 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser...very good points!!

I dont care what anyone says but Flacco is not an elite QB. He just had a great team around him. Similar to Ponder. I dont see why the Vikings couldnt win a Super Bowl with Ponder at the helm. Flacco caught fire during the playoffs last year, no reason Ponder couldnt. If he can manage games well like he did vs. Houston and GB I think we will be tough to beat. Comparing stats is crap...as Krauser just proved.

We just gave Ponder Jennings and Patterson which I think will be HUGE helps. Rudolph is a top NFL TE. We have our whole o-line returning. Dont be surprised if we have the best D-line in the NFL this year. LB is still up in the air but I think we will be fine with Greenway (obviously), Hodges is very athletic on the other side and Henderson will be fine in the middle. We also have a very physical corner is Rhodes, a healthy Cook, Robinson, etc along with one of the top safeties in Smith and a much improved Sanford.

Oh did I mention we have the best RB in the league?? I really think it comes down to Ponder being able to manage the game well. He doesnt need to throw for 400 and 5 TDs but he needs to limit turnovers and make smart decisions and I think we have a legitimate shot. This has been the most amped Ive been for a Vikings team in a long time
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DJpillz317


Joined: 21 Oct 2012
Posts: 680
PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2013 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BxT02-9FQY
Highlights of our QB of the future LOL
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Blake Bortles is going to be a Viking
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AQuintus


Joined: 16 Oct 2012
Posts: 1318
PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2013 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DJpillz317 wrote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BxT02-9FQY
Highlights of our QB of the future LOL


3 minutes worth of highlights.

Jenkins is in 2.
Aromashodu is in 1.

Wright, who only played in 7 games, was in 3.

Wow, our receiving corp is going to be so much better this year now that those first 2 guys are gone.
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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2013 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krausers point is not that the stats are bad things. The point is that the the author of the article he discussed didn't use meaningful stats, thus he didn't support his theory that Ponder performed poorly.

Some stats, such as turnovers, are more highly correlated with Wins and Losses than are stats such as passing yardage totals.

So, the key point is an old one; win the battles of turnovers and field position and you win the game. Passing yardage is not as meaningful as some people think. That can be proven by a simple example; a scoreless game enters the 4th quarter with equal yardage accumulated by both teams. One QB throws an INT in his own territory, and the defense returns the INT to the 20 yd line. The offense takes over, but gains no yards, a FG is kicked, and the game ends (after equal yardage is gained by both offenses, with no further scoring) in a score of 3-0.

The key objective for a QB is to move the ball downfield ( battle of field position) without turning the ball over on an INT or fumble ( battle of turnovers), to score points. Gaining a lot of passing yards helps, but rushing yards or penalties on the defense are other ways to gain field position to score points.

People who hold up YPA as the be-all, end-all stat for a QB are less than half right. That stat helps win the battle of field position. But it omits rushing yardage, penalties, and turnovers. Flacco was not in the top 10 in YPA last year, but his team won the SB. That was not an aberration.
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HighHopes


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PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2013 12:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ponder cannot throw a bullet lol (atleast they werent in the highlight reel). But he really does have some nice touch sometimes, just do that more consistently and bam we have a good QB! Just that easy....
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DJpillz317


Joined: 21 Oct 2012
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PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2013 12:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

HighHopes wrote:
Ponder cannot throw a bullet lol (atleast they werent in the highlight reel). But he really does have some nice touch sometimes, just do that more consistently and bam we have a good QB! Just that easy....

He can throw bullets, but like all his other passes, he just needs to get consistent. That's the key next year to me: CONSISTENCY!
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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2013 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SteelKing728 wrote:
Just another reason I don't pay that much attention to stats.

You can make anyone sound great or awful, depending on how you display those stats.

From the looks of it, the writer did barely any research, and thus when compared to what Krauser pointed out, there was no point made.

If Ponder can be more efficient, and step it up and play at a consistent level, I have pretty confident in saying we'll go 10-6 or better this year.


100% of stats are 'made up'..... from data.

How would you determine 'more efficient'?

Why would you bother keeping track of teams' W-L records if you don't pay much attention to stats?
Wink
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Duff Man


Joined: 05 May 2013
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Location: Sveltville
PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2013 9:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

HighHopes wrote:
Ponder cannot throw a bullet lol (atleast they werent in the highlight reel). But he really does have some nice touch sometimes, just do that more consistently and bam we have a good QB! Just that easy....


He did have some seriously good touch passes this season..

I'm optimistic that he will improve (once again) this year. I don't know about anybody else, but I definitely saw a major step forward in his first year as a starting QB. He did have a couple of very shaky games last year, though. The big thing for him, in my opinion, is coming back from those bad games and maintaining a high level of confidence.
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perrynoid


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PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2013 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
100% of stats are 'made up'..... from data.

How would you determine 'more efficient'?

Why would you bother keeping track of teams' W-L records if you don't pay much attention to stats?
Wink


One of my favorite quotes used to be "Figures don't lie, but liars sometimes figure" but I stopped using it because people were offended (they thought I was referring to them).
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