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Ponder-iffic or Ponder-errible? the 2013 Pre-Season Debate.
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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Worm Guts wrote:
Purplexing wrote:
@ Purple Faithful;

Could it be that the smaller YPA was partly due to Musgraves' scheme to throw short, to Harvin, and throw shorter to keep Ponders' completion pct high, and avoid risky throws downfield to avoid turnovers?


The Vikings definitely ran an offense that didn't ask much from Ponder but that was because they didn't trust him. That needs to be seen as a negative.


Who said that? Frazier? Musgrave? Spielman?

[obligatory request for a link]Link?[/obligatory request for a link]

A passing game is comprised of a QB, the OL blocking scheme, and receivers running routes and catching the ball.

YPA isn't a proven predictor of success.

And, if YPA were 7 on average, while YPC for Peterson were 5.0 on avg, why bother passing the ball at all?

I asked this ^ question a while ago and got no answer.

It would seem logical that YPA > YPC implies pass the ball on ALL offensive snaps. But what is missing in the logic.

My prior clue is repeated: 'per'.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Worm Guts wrote:
I think you're being dishonest if you watched the games. Ponder was scared in the pocket and inaccurate downfield much of the year. In the 2nd Bears game, the Vikings were flat out afraid to let him throw the ball.


Could it have been those cowardly Vikings chose to run AP all over Da Bearrrrsss, who haven't been able to stop AP over his career?
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AQuintus


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 8:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Worm Guts wrote:
I think that's just deflecting from the issue. Ponder played poorly on his own and it was obvious.


If only he wasn't playing 1 vs 11 out there...
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Worm Guts


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think you are just being dishonest. When a QB makes bad decisiond,bad passes and scrambles from no pressure it's difficult to blame the rest of the team. And yes, he had games where he did all three.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Worm Guts wrote:
I think that's just deflecting from the issue. Ponder played poorly on his own and it was obvious.


I think he played poorly..... at times.

Then, he played well..... at other times.

And he played 'meh' ...... the rest of the time.

He was inconsistent.

But did he improve?

No one has really addressed that question.

Perhaps it's too soon to tell?

Let's watch him in 2013, and keep our fingers crossed that the poor performances are very few, the 'mehs' are less than before, and the good performances are the majority by a good margin over the rest.

No one has answered my question as to why teams don't pass on EVERY down if their QB has a YPA of say, 7.0, and their RB has a YPC of 4.0.

Think
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Last edited by Purplexing on Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Worm Guts wrote:
I think you are just being dishonest. When a QB makes bad decisiond,bad passes and scrambles from no pressure it's difficult to blame the rest of the team. And yes, he had games where he did all three.


How many games did he do bad on all 3 counts?

Did he have good games? How many?

How many 'meh' games?

Fault is like fertilizer; it works best when it's spread around.
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Purple Faithful


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
@ Purple Faithful;

Could it be that the smaller YPA was partly due to Musgraves' scheme to throw short, to Harvin, and throw shorter to keep Ponders' completion pct high, and avoid risky throws downfield to avoid turnovers?
Oh, yes, definitely. But that's a problem to me, then. We have an old Oakland Raiders/pittsburgh steelers team, where you pound the ball with an Allen or Franco, as an example. Then, the correct thing to do, is throw over the top. No body went deeper than bradshaw/raiders. It is not correct, to me, to pound, pound, throw WCO pass meant to replace the run. We got AD, you don't replace that, and the box is packed with everyone, including corners, up. You do not throw in front of that, you go vertical. if they want to throw those short passes, draft a roger craig, cut/trade AD, find another wr, and go.

Possible problems:
1. Ponder is not "the One"
2. Musgrave is a complete moron
3. We had no wr's, and the one we did was a free-wheeling idiot.

Vikes have said "it's 3". They won 10 games, so what the heck, I believe. I did not consider that Harvin's reason he plays so poorly on the outside is because he does his own thing and isn't where he is supposed to be. Harvin's fast and strong enough to play fine on the outside, but if he's a free wheeling idiot, then you need a free wheeling cannon QB. Roethlesberger or favre, i suppose.

A lot of the evidence supports "3", not all, but enough where they deserve a shot. So, i am not gonna rip ponder. besides, no one likely better this year.
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Worm Guts


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
Worm Guts wrote:
I think you're being dishonest if you watched the games. Ponder was scared in the pocket and inaccurate downfield much of the year. In the 2nd Bears game, the Vikings were flat out afraid to let him throw the ball.


Could it have been those cowardly Vikings chose to run AP all over Da Bearrrrsss, who haven't been able to stop AP over his career?


The Vikings favored the run all year but this was another level. AP had a great first quarter but was relatively quiet the rest of the game. They were obviously hesitant to let Ponder throw the ball after the Lambeau game. Not everything needs to be explicitly stated.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doesn't throwing downfield too often lead to incompletions, stalled drives, and turnovers?

How do you win games with a 3-13 team that has the best RB in the NFL?

Win the battle of turnovers, field position, and kick FGs when necessary to score.

Continuing to matriculate the ball downfield (Thanks, Coach Stram!) by being cautious will allow AP to break a big run, or to get into the red zone to score a TD or easy FG.

tw posted a Ponder pass vid against the Cards where he threw across his body while running right, and it skipped off Rudolphs fingers into the hands of a AZ Cards DB for an INT deep in MN territory. That's a sure way to lose games, or at least put your team in the hole.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Worm Guts wrote:
Purplexing wrote:
Worm Guts wrote:
I think you're being dishonest if you watched the games. Ponder was scared in the pocket and inaccurate downfield much of the year. In the 2nd Bears game, the Vikings were flat out afraid to let him throw the ball.


Could it have been those cowardly Vikings chose to run AP all over Da Bearrrrsss, who haven't been able to stop AP over his career?


The Vikings favored the run all year but this was another level. AP had a great first quarter but was relatively quiet the rest of the game. They were obviously hesitant to let Ponder throw the ball after the Lambeau game. Not everything needs to be explicitly stated.


The Vikings lost at Chicago, and beat them at home. Ponders QB rating was in the 50s in both games. What was different in the win?
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purple Faithful wrote:
Purplexing wrote:
@ Purple Faithful;

Could it be that the smaller YPA was partly due to Musgraves' scheme to throw short, to Harvin, and throw shorter to keep Ponders' completion pct high, and avoid risky throws downfield to avoid turnovers?
Oh, yes, definitely. But that's a problem to me, then. We have an old Oakland Raiders/pittsburgh steelers team, where you pound the ball with an Allen or Franco, as an example. Then, the correct thing to do, is throw over the top. No body went deeper than bradshaw/raiders. It is not correct, to me, to pound, pound, throw WCO pass meant to replace the run. We got AD, you don't replace that, and the box is packed with everyone, including corners, up. You do not throw in front of that, you go vertical. if they want to throw those short passes, draft a roger craig, cut/trade AD, find another wr, and go.

Possible problems:
1. Ponder is not "the One"
2. Musgrave is a complete moron
3. We had no wr's, and the one we did was a free-wheeling idiot.

Vikes have said "it's 3". They won 10 games, so what the heck, I believe. I did not consider that Harvin's reason he plays so poorly on the outside is because he does his own thing and isn't where he is supposed to be. Harvin's fast and strong enough to play fine on the outside, but if he's a free wheeling idiot, then you need a free wheeling cannon QB. Roethlesberger or favre, i suppose.

A lot of the evidence supports "3", not all, but enough where they deserve a shot. So, i am not gonna rip ponder. besides, no one likely better this year.


I agree with most of this, except 'Ponder is not the one' says nothing.

Musgrave being a 'complete moron' would mean he is not be able to gameplan to win any NFL games.
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Worm Guts


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm posting from my phone so I'm not going go deep into details. I feel somethings are obvious from watching the games. The Vikings didn't give Ponder a lot of responsibility which is obvious by how few yards he threw for at times. Even in his best games he didn't throw for a ton of yards.

One thing that really is amazing to me is how people want to blame Harvin for the passing attack. Harvin is an above average receiver while Ponder was a below average quarterback. It's ridiculous to blame Harvin.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think there is one person who blamed Harvin for our lack of passing attack. The closest anyone may have got to that was saying that Musgrave was trying to force-feed Harvin the ball on smoke and bubble screens and the rest of the passing game was suffering.
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Purple Faithful


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:

YPA isn't a proven predictor of success.

And, if YPA were 7 on average, while YPC for Peterson were 5.0 on avg, why bother passing the ball at all?

I asked this ^ question a while ago and got no answer.

It would seem logical that YPA > YPC implies pass the ball on ALL offensive snaps. But what is missing in the logic.

My prior clue is repeated: 'per'.
wow, is that wrong.

http://smartfootball.blogspot.com/2006/07/runpass-balance-and-little-game-theory.html

"Longtime CHFF readers know that a quarterback's average per attempt has an incredibly high correlation to success, often close to 80 percent in a given season. "

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2012/Final/RPYPA/


If you pass all the time, your YPA will go down. Make sense? DC's like to keep their jobs and are not all morons. If you run all the time, then, when you do pass, you should really get a lot of yards, for the surprise factor. When you have the MVP at running back, crushing defenses, and you throw as little as Ponder does, .... People have minds, it's not in a vacuum. people adapt, DC's adapt. Vikes did not make people adapt last year, because we could not punish anyone when we passed. But, 5 return TD's, good defense, we finish over .500 firmly.

To complete the analysis, you would look at what you pass per attempt versus what you give up per pass attempt. You can use passer rating, too. I find YPA more useful, but passer rating is fine, you can reflectthe total drop-backs, too - include sacks and the like as CHFF does. I find if you're getting sacked, the pressure is already affecting you, anyway, or you're sacking, you're already hurting opposing QB, making him nervous/flustered in the pocket on next pass. It's more accurate to use an adjusted figure, but not as readily available to look at -not an official stat. When I want to look at what's happening week 4, i prefer to do it week 4, rather than week 10 when the 3rd parties get aroung to it. maybe just me.

The good defenses:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt/position/defense
compare to points per game list:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame/position/defense

The good offenses:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt
ditto:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame

all-time good:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_per_att_career.htm

So, vikes finished 14th on points for and against. That's .500, but they won 10. Give them a break, i shall.
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Purple Faithful


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:

purple faithful wrote:

Possible problems:
1. Ponder is not "the One"
2. Musgrave is a complete moron
3. We had no wr's, and the one we did was a free-wheeling idiot.



I agree with most of this, except 'Ponder is not the one' says nothing.

Musgrave being a 'complete moron' would mean he is not be able to gameplan to win any NFL games.
Ponder is not a top 10 nfl qb? I said maybe the problem is ponder, maybe the problem is musgrave, and maybe the problem is wr. Vikes say it was wr why the passing attack was anemic. They won 10 games, so i feel they can say it's Harvin's fault, as they have. Now we'll see. If the Vikings offense flourishes without Harvin and the addition of Jennings, then there must be something to what the Vikings are saying. If The vikings passing attack still stinks, then maybe the problem is actually ponder, like i thought last year when i wanted the vikes to trade up for RG3. Or maybe it's musgrave, like lots of fans think. But I'll just wait for the season.
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