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Ponder-iffic or Ponder-errible? the 2013 Pre-Season Debate.
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twslhs20


Joined: 28 Feb 2008
Posts: 12158
Location: Where the true depth of one's soul doesn't resonate with the world
PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 5:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
twslhs20 wrote:
Purplexing wrote:
disaacs wrote:
Purplexing wrote:

Before you go further down this road, please explain why the number of 4th quarter comebacks over a 27 game career are a significant measure of potential, actual success, or resilience?

I would guess that few NFL teams have more than a handful of situations over 27 games where a comeback win is possible.

That ^ is why it is too soon to draw conclusions.


I'm not drawing any conclusions. I think it's just a positive sign.

While there are certainly a "handful" of situations that come up, over the past decade or so, it's been clearly evident (at least to me) that the Vikings haven't had a QB capable of coming through.

In my opinion, in those situations, I've seen more poise from Ponder than I've seen from any young Vikings' QB in practically my entire lifetime. Tarvaris folded like a cheap suit. Daunte generally fumbled it away. Rich Gannon had his moments, but Denny never had enough faith in him to put it in his hands (nor did he really with any QB). And Tommy Kramer would get sacked 20 yds back to put them out of range (I wasn't old enough to watch the "Two-Minute Tommy" years, because he was more "Two Sacks" Tommy when I watched him).

Therefore, while I don't think anyone can draw any final conclusions on it, I think there is enough evidence to support my faith in his ability to make a comeback to have patience with him while he develops the rest of his game.


I thought 'tw' drew more rigid conclusions than you, and agree it is a positive sign that doesn't yet have full credibility.

Rookie/ yute QBs that become long term starters learn from their mistakes. That learning includes how to perform under stress, such as a two-minute drill with the game on the line. Ponder did well in those limited opportunities.

Somewhere in the cobwebs is probably lurking this (link) memory, which you've 'momentarily misplaced' Wink for some reason:

http://articles.latimes.com/1985-12-02/sports/sp-12539_1_vikings

Notes: first word in 2nd paragraph is a mistake. s.b. WW.
Also note: 8:27 left.


I don't quite understand what that article was suppose to suggest other than Kramer was terrible. Most knew he was.

Peterson is a weapon. We know what he can do to defenses of 8-9 guys in the box. The NFL is a passing league now. I don't want to build around a guy that manages the damn game. I want a guy I know I'm confident in the last 2 minutes having to pass the ball. That guy makes Peterson an even more dangerous threat, because they can limit a one dimensional play book with ponder. No defense could stop an offense with top 15 qb and Peterson in the backfield.

Ponder isn't good enough to come out firing the ball down field to set up the run. It's always the other way around. If this offense was anything close to balance we could do great things. I honestly think the play book is limited for ponder to keep him out of trouble. I saw the same with Jackson. Everyone complains about Musgrave. Maybe he knows something we don't about our QB position


I still fail to see why 'comeback ability' is critical to winning a championship.
A good team with a good D won't fall far behind their opponent in the score. If they have a great D and QB and decent RB, or a great D and RB and game manager QB, they will win many games.
How many times will a team need to make a 4th comeback to win?

Since you are so concerned about it, what is Ponder's record in comeback situations?

A few people above ^ pointed out a few comeback wins by Ponder. I didn't read anything about failed comeback attempts, but I would guess a few happened.

One easy criticism of Ponder at this point is that he is inconsistent, game by game.


Tell that to the 49ers.

I'm sure Ponder has quite a few failed attemps at a 4th quarter comebacks. Though I don't think they have a stat for that. I'll keep digging.

just food for thought.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_career.htm

6 of the top 10 QBs on that list have championships

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/gwd_career.htm

6 of the top 10 QBs on this list have championships.
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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:

Tell that to the 49ers.

I'm sure Ponder has quite a few failed attemps at a 4th quarter comebacks. Though I don't think they have a stat for that. I'll keep digging.

just food for thought.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_career.htm

6 of the top 10 QBs on that list have championships

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/gwd_career.htm

6 of the top 10 QBs on this list have championships.


I just got off the phone with the 49ers front office. I told them a QB who could bring his team back from behind in score; i.e. a comeback, would be needed for them to win a championship.

I can't repeat the entire reply, including some words I rarely hear from a person answering an office line. But he mentioned John Brodie, Joe Montana and Steve Young.

I said someone suggested that criteria, but he asked "how many comeback wins does Joe Flacco have in his career?" I said "I dunno, but there's a list, so I'll look it up".

There is some correlation between comeback wins and championships. But there is likely to be stronger correlation between championships won and variables like turnovers, defense, red zone efficiency, etc.

'Comeback win' and 'Game Winning Drive' arise when several factors combine to result in a win. Examples; 1. A defense plays poorly to lose the lead, then plays better, and the offense plays well at the end of the game, or it capitalizes on a turnover. 2. Defense of winner got a takeaway when it trailed by less than 7 pts. 3. Clutch K. 4. Clutch QB.

'6 of top 10 won championships' on both of the lists you provided indicates 4 of top 10 did not win a championship. Ignoring a stat test of significance, that criteria doesn't appear to be significantly different from a 50-50 chance.

I don't value a stat or criteria based on a large volume of chances; i.e. a player who plays long enough can rack up plenty of wins and comeback wins. His teams, over his career, have many chances to win a championship. A better measure would be a qualitative ratio or a composite stat, like YPA, completion pctg, or QB rating.

I'll review those lists when I get time tonight. Thanx 4 the 411!
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wcblack34


Joined: 21 Jan 2005
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Location: Anywhere but Wisconsin.
PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This thread is like switching back and forth between Bill O'Reilly and Rachel Maddow...a bit more civil though...
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PurpleMugen


Joined: 05 Feb 2008
Posts: 4019
Location: Rutgers University
PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:
Purplexing wrote:
twslhs20 wrote:
Purplexing wrote:
disaacs wrote:
Purplexing wrote:

Before you go further down this road, please explain why the number of 4th quarter comebacks over a 27 game career are a significant measure of potential, actual success, or resilience?

I would guess that few NFL teams have more than a handful of situations over 27 games where a comeback win is possible.

That ^ is why it is too soon to draw conclusions.


I'm not drawing any conclusions. I think it's just a positive sign.

While there are certainly a "handful" of situations that come up, over the past decade or so, it's been clearly evident (at least to me) that the Vikings haven't had a QB capable of coming through.

In my opinion, in those situations, I've seen more poise from Ponder than I've seen from any young Vikings' QB in practically my entire lifetime. Tarvaris folded like a cheap suit. Daunte generally fumbled it away. Rich Gannon had his moments, but Denny never had enough faith in him to put it in his hands (nor did he really with any QB). And Tommy Kramer would get sacked 20 yds back to put them out of range (I wasn't old enough to watch the "Two-Minute Tommy" years, because he was more "Two Sacks" Tommy when I watched him).

Therefore, while I don't think anyone can draw any final conclusions on it, I think there is enough evidence to support my faith in his ability to make a comeback to have patience with him while he develops the rest of his game.


I thought 'tw' drew more rigid conclusions than you, and agree it is a positive sign that doesn't yet have full credibility.

Rookie/ yute QBs that become long term starters learn from their mistakes. That learning includes how to perform under stress, such as a two-minute drill with the game on the line. Ponder did well in those limited opportunities.

Somewhere in the cobwebs is probably lurking this (link) memory, which you've 'momentarily misplaced' Wink for some reason:

http://articles.latimes.com/1985-12-02/sports/sp-12539_1_vikings

Notes: first word in 2nd paragraph is a mistake. s.b. WW.
Also note: 8:27 left.


I don't quite understand what that article was suppose to suggest other than Kramer was terrible. Most knew he was.

Peterson is a weapon. We know what he can do to defenses of 8-9 guys in the box. The NFL is a passing league now. I don't want to build around a guy that manages the damn game. I want a guy I know I'm confident in the last 2 minutes having to pass the ball. That guy makes Peterson an even more dangerous threat, because they can limit a one dimensional play book with ponder. No defense could stop an offense with top 15 qb and Peterson in the backfield.

Ponder isn't good enough to come out firing the ball down field to set up the run. It's always the other way around. If this offense was anything close to balance we could do great things. I honestly think the play book is limited for ponder to keep him out of trouble. I saw the same with Jackson. Everyone complains about Musgrave. Maybe he knows something we don't about our QB position


I still fail to see why 'comeback ability' is critical to winning a championship.
A good team with a good D won't fall far behind their opponent in the score. If they have a great D and QB and decent RB, or a great D and RB and game manager QB, they will win many games.
How many times will a team need to make a 4th comeback to win?

Since you are so concerned about it, what is Ponder's record in comeback situations?

A few people above ^ pointed out a few comeback wins by Ponder. I didn't read anything about failed comeback attempts, but I would guess a few happened.

One easy criticism of Ponder at this point is that he is inconsistent, game by game.


Tell that to the 49ers.

I'm sure Ponder has quite a few failed attemps at a 4th quarter comebacks. Though I don't think they have a stat for that. I'll keep digging.

just food for thought.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_career.htm

6 of the top 10 QBs on that list have championships

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/gwd_career.htm

6 of the top 10 QBs on this list have championships.


Great find. Comeback ability really is a critical factor.
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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PurpleMugen wrote:


Comeback ability really is a critical factor.


Correlated? Yes, somewhat.

Critical? No.

4 of the top 10 'comeback kids' never won a championship.... did you miss that part of the 'find'?
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Kellerman


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you ask me all these individual stats don't mean anything. We can find all kinds of correlations if we search long and hard enough, but most of the time there is no direct causal relationship to be found.

It's nothing more than guesstimation, it doesn't prove anything.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kellerman wrote:
If you ask me all these individual stats don't mean anything. We can find all kinds of correlations if we search long and hard enough, but most of the time there is no direct causal relationship to be found.

It's nothing more than guesstimation, it doesn't prove anything.


That is correct.
Weak correlations can be found easily.

But high correlations are useful. Stats, too. The existence of a Combine in Indy each year supports that premise.

Ask any GM of an pro sports team how they decide on which players to draft, trade, sign in free agency, cut, extend, etc.
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HighHopes


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LOL, Matt Cassel has as many game winning drives as Rodgers. SB BOUND!

Combine Cassel and Ponder, our QBs have 3 more than Rodgers Wink

And Tebow has more 4th quarter comebacks than Rodgers.


Kind of makes me sad. That just means Rodgers is so dominant in general... lol
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Kellerman


Joined: 16 May 2010
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
Kellerman wrote:
If you ask me all these individual stats don't mean anything. We can find all kinds of correlations if we search long and hard enough, but most of the time there is no direct causal relationship to be found.

It's nothing more than guesstimation, it doesn't prove anything.


That is correct.
Weak correlations can be found easily.

But high correlations are useful. Stats, too. The existence of a Combine in Indy each year supports that premise.

Ask any GM of an pro sports team how they decide on which players to draft, trade, sign in free agency, cut, extend, etc.


Stats do not tell you anything about an individual case.

If it did I'd be 51% female.
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vikesnewcoach11


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really hope and think Ponder will do well this year...and then hopefully this stupid debate about him can stop. He showed what he is capable of at the end of the year with NO WR's. Let this year do the talking.
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wcblack34


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You guys aren't combining your stats with sideline photographs. THAT'S the problem.
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Purple Faithful


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wcblack34 wrote:
You guys aren't combining your stats with sideline photographs. THAT'S the problem.
I'd ask that to argue in this thread, you have to include a picture of either Ponder's wife or his ex. that whole comeback thing bored me to tears.
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Kellerman


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purple Faithful wrote:
wcblack34 wrote:
You guys aren't combining your stats with sideline photographs. THAT'S the problem.
I'd ask that to argue in this thread, you have to include a picture of either Ponder's wife or his ex. that whole comeback thing bored me to tears.


Tom Brady has not won a Superbowl since marrying a blonde. I say we petition Ponder for a divorce. Mad
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Vikefan79


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kellerman wrote:
Purple Faithful wrote:
wcblack34 wrote:
You guys aren't combining your stats with sideline photographs. THAT'S the problem.
I'd ask that to argue in this thread, you have to include a picture of either Ponder's wife or his ex. that whole comeback thing bored me to tears.


Tom Brady has not won a Superbowl since marrying a blonde. I say we petition Ponder for a divorce. Mad


She's more a of a light brunette
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Kellerman


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vikefan79 wrote:
Kellerman wrote:
Purple Faithful wrote:
wcblack34 wrote:
You guys aren't combining your stats with sideline photographs. THAT'S the problem.
I'd ask that to argue in this thread, you have to include a picture of either Ponder's wife or his ex. that whole comeback thing bored me to tears.


Tom Brady has not won a Superbowl since marrying a blonde. I say we petition Ponder for a divorce. Mad


She's more a of a light brunette


So we're okay on that front? Does dyeing matter?
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