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Ponder-iffic or Ponder-errible? the 2013 Pre-Season Debate.
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fishtanked


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 9:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:
disaacs wrote:
twslhs20 wrote:
The majority of this site isn't afraid of Ponder beating their team with 2 minutes left.


Didn't he already have 3 games last year in which he helped lead the Vikings on either a comeback in the 4th quarter or to a win? That's actually been the best part of his game thus far. They must be confusing him with Tarvaris again. Wink


http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/comeback.cgi?player=PondCh00

1 4th quarter comeback against jacksonville

a game winning drive against green bay week 16. .

Jacksonville's secondary is awful. Green Bay was hoping for a better playoff seeding, but 49ers had to lose, or it didn't matter either way. can't remember. Also wasn't GBs secondary banged up, and they still were without CMIII that game, but got him back for the playoff game?

Either way not much solid competition to gauge how good he was


I think you need to include the Colts game in there. It's not Ponders fault the D went to sleep after he marched them down the field to take the lead.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 9:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:
disaacs wrote:
twslhs20 wrote:
The majority of this site isn't afraid of Ponder beating their team with 2 minutes left.


Didn't he already have 3 games last year in which he helped lead the Vikings on either a comeback in the 4th quarter or to a win? That's actually been the best part of his game thus far. They must be confusing him with Tarvaris again. Wink


http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/comeback.cgi?player=PondCh00

1 4th quarter comeback against jacksonville

a game winning drive against green bay week 16. .

Jacksonville's secondary is awful. Green Bay was hoping for a better playoff seeding, but 49ers had to lose, or it didn't matter either way. can't remember. Also wasn't GBs secondary banged up, and they still were without CMIII that game, but got him back for the playoff game?

Either way not much solid competition to gauge how good he was


Before you go further down this road, please explain why the number of 4th quarter comebacks over a 27 game career are a significant measure of potential, actual success, or resilience?

I would guess that few NFL teams have more than a handful of situations over 27 games where a comeback win is possible.

That ^ is why it is too soon to draw conclusions.
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disaacs


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 9:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:

Before you go further down this road, please explain why the number of 4th quarter comebacks over a 27 game career are a significant measure of potential, actual success, or resilience?

I would guess that few NFL teams have more than a handful of situations over 27 games where a comeback win is possible.

That ^ is why it is too soon to draw conclusions.


I'm not drawing any conclusions. I think it's just a positive sign.

While there are certainly a "handful" of situations that come up, over the past decade or so, it's been clearly evident (at least to me) that the Vikings haven't had a QB capable of coming through.

In my opinion, in those situations, I've seen more poise from Ponder than I've seen from any young Vikings' QB in practically my entire lifetime. Tarvaris folded like a cheap suit. Daunte generally fumbled it away. Rich Gannon had his moments, but Denny never had enough faith in him to put it in his hands (nor did he really with any QB). And Tommy Kramer would get sacked 20 yds back to put them out of range (I wasn't old enough to watch the "Two-Minute Tommy" years, because he was more "Two Sacks" Tommy when I watched him).

Therefore, while I don't think anyone can draw any final conclusions on it, I think there is enough evidence to support my faith in his ability to make a comeback to have patience with him while he develops the rest of his game.
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CriminalMind


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

While there may be a positive correlation between 4th quarter comebacks and success... I would think there is an even strong correlation between yards per throw (entire game) and success. I would guess that thus far, Ponder is not high (correlation wise)

Look at one type of data, could really skew things.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

disaacs wrote:
Purplexing wrote:

Before you go further down this road, please explain why the number of 4th quarter comebacks over a 27 game career are a significant measure of potential, actual success, or resilience?

I would guess that few NFL teams have more than a handful of situations over 27 games where a comeback win is possible.

That ^ is why it is too soon to draw conclusions.


I'm not drawing any conclusions. I think it's just a positive sign.

While there are certainly a "handful" of situations that come up, over the past decade or so, it's been clearly evident (at least to me) that the Vikings haven't had a QB capable of coming through.

In my opinion, in those situations, I've seen more poise from Ponder than I've seen from any young Vikings' QB in practically my entire lifetime. Tarvaris folded like a cheap suit. Daunte generally fumbled it away. Rich Gannon had his moments, but Denny never had enough faith in him to put it in his hands (nor did he really with any QB). And Tommy Kramer would get sacked 20 yds back to put them out of range (I wasn't old enough to watch the "Two-Minute Tommy" years, because he was more "Two Sacks" Tommy when I watched him).

Therefore, while I don't think anyone can draw any final conclusions on it, I think there is enough evidence to support my faith in his ability to make a comeback to have patience with him while he develops the rest of his game.


I thought 'tw' drew more rigid conclusions than you, and agree it is a positive sign that doesn't yet have full credibility.

Rookie/ yute QBs that become long term starters learn from their mistakes. That learning includes how to perform under stress, such as a two-minute drill with the game on the line. Ponder did well in those limited opportunities.

Somewhere in the cobwebs is probably lurking this (link) memory, which you've 'momentarily misplaced' Wink for some reason:

http://articles.latimes.com/1985-12-02/sports/sp-12539_1_vikings

Notes: first word in 2nd paragraph is a mistake. s.b. WW.
Also note: 8:27 left.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CriminalMind wrote:
While there may be a positive correlation between 4th quarter comebacks and success... I would think there is an even strong correlation between yards per throw (entire game) and success. I would guess that thus far, Ponder is not high (correlation wise)

Look at one type of data, could really skew things.


Perhaps. But why?

Why would the Vikings be able to win 10 games, with AP running for 2097, and Ponder performing in a very volatile manner throughout the year..... and throwing for shorter avg gains than many/ most other NFL QBs?

Wins are a result of the D, O, and STs all contributing in some way. All other things being equal, it would seem the QB with the greatest yardage gained per attempt would win the game.

My guess as to why avg gain per attempt isn't decisive; turnovers, and it's cousin, field position. The team that can win those 2 battles within the battle will win the game.

In Ponder's last 4 (?) games he had 1 INT. That greatly helps win the two battles within the battle.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, the odds of a RB putting up 2000 yards are pretty low......so that probably skews the results. YPA has been shown, over time, to correlate to offensive success. Any one year can be an outlier for any one team, but if you are building a team, you probably build for what is likely to happen, not build to be an outlier.....

Now, once you have Peterson, you can change things up some, but all in all, YPA is a key measure for a QB and offense, even if you have a great RB. And, no one stat is decisive, and I don't think anyone said it wa the only thing to measure. That's why we have complex stuff that complie multiple stats. But, I'm pretty sure, YPA correlates highly with offensive successive, if I recall what I've read on line correctly.
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disaacs


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
Somewhere in the cobwebs is probably lurking this (link) memory, which you've 'momentarily misplaced' Wink for some reason:

http://articles.latimes.com/1985-12-02/sports/sp-12539_1_vikings

Notes: first word in 2nd paragraph is a mistake. s.b. WW.
Also note: 8:27 left.


I vaguely remember that game...and maybe that's why I did not include Wade Wilson in my assessments. I always liked Wade Wilson over Tommy Kramer. He should have replaced Kramer long before he did. Kramer seemed to either be getting sacked after dropping back or getting in arguments with neighbors after having about 10 beers. Laughing
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PrplChilPill


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I worked at Olympic Hills while Kramer was a player.....arguments with neighbors were the least of his concerns/problems......
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PrplChilPill wrote:
Well, the odds of a RB putting up 2000 yards are pretty low......so that probably skews the results. YPA has been shown, over time, to correlate to offensive success. Any one year can be an outlier for any one team, but if you are building a team, you probably build for what is likely to happen, not build to be an outlier.....

Now, once you have Peterson, you can change things up some, but all in all, YPA is a key measure for a QB and offense, even if you have a great RB. And, no one stat is decisive, and I don't think anyone said it wa the only thing to measure. That's why we have complex stuff that complie multiple stats. But, I'm pretty sure, YPA correlates highly with offensive successive, if I recall what I've read on line correctly.


I agree with this ^.

Consider the simple math; completing one long pass more than another QB in a single game will increase the QBs avg gain by a yard or two over the QB without a long gain.

Assume each threw 30 passes and completed 20.

QB 1 completed a 50 yd pass as one of the 20 completions.

QB 2 completed a 10 yd pass as the comparable completion.

The net difference is +40 yds on 20 completions or 30 attempts, for a net avg gain difference of either +2.0 yds/ completion or +1.3 yds / attempt.

The QB completing the 50 yd pass either threw a TD pass, or put his team in field position to continue on and score a TD or FG. The other QB may not have been able to continue the drive by not converting a 3rd down along those +40 yds. So the higher avg gain may lead to a scoring difference that wins the game.
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disaacs


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PrplChilPill wrote:
I worked at Olympic Hills while Kramer was a player.....arguments with neighbors were the least of his concerns/problems......


I'm sure you've got some stories, then. Wink
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

swiss_vike wrote:
Let's go back and discuss what Ponder has to work on.

1) Footwork and pocket awareness.

2) side-line throws and throws over defenders (he sails them quite often). he's quite good at fitting balls into tight windows

3) quicker decision making. closely related to 1.

I think he has to potential to be very good. while mentally shaken at times, he was always able to recover. never saw deer in the headlight symptoms as with tarvaris and a general cluelessnes.

his arm is fine. jennings will help a ton because he runs perfect routes. Heck, I would even say that Ponder never had 1 single reciever who run good routes and got some separation.

I'm positive yet not sold.


I like that list. If he could improve all of those 3 things, the sky is the limit.

but, the thing is a lot of QBs have these problems and can never seem to get past that bug. Because they can't do this well, they're inconsistent and hold the team back. The two players that really come to mind here is Tarvaris Jackson and Rex Grossman.

At this point in his career, I think Christian Ponder could go either way. We've seen improvement in him, and we've seen him step it up big time in high pressure situations. If he can build on that, and can fix those 3 fundamental problems, I think we got ourselves our Franchise QB.

and I like the idea of getting a competent backup behind Ponder. Cassell's presence should only bring out the competitive nature of our starting QB. If it doesn't, and we see Ponder clearly struggling, then we can bench him in favor of the backup.
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PrplChilPill


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 1:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

disaacs wrote:
PrplChilPill wrote:
I worked at Olympic Hills while Kramer was a player.....arguments with neighbors were the least of his concerns/problems......


I'm sure you've got some stories, then. Wink


Not that I can put online....
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 5:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
disaacs wrote:
Purplexing wrote:

Before you go further down this road, please explain why the number of 4th quarter comebacks over a 27 game career are a significant measure of potential, actual success, or resilience?

I would guess that few NFL teams have more than a handful of situations over 27 games where a comeback win is possible.

That ^ is why it is too soon to draw conclusions.


I'm not drawing any conclusions. I think it's just a positive sign.

While there are certainly a "handful" of situations that come up, over the past decade or so, it's been clearly evident (at least to me) that the Vikings haven't had a QB capable of coming through.

In my opinion, in those situations, I've seen more poise from Ponder than I've seen from any young Vikings' QB in practically my entire lifetime. Tarvaris folded like a cheap suit. Daunte generally fumbled it away. Rich Gannon had his moments, but Denny never had enough faith in him to put it in his hands (nor did he really with any QB). And Tommy Kramer would get sacked 20 yds back to put them out of range (I wasn't old enough to watch the "Two-Minute Tommy" years, because he was more "Two Sacks" Tommy when I watched him).

Therefore, while I don't think anyone can draw any final conclusions on it, I think there is enough evidence to support my faith in his ability to make a comeback to have patience with him while he develops the rest of his game.


I thought 'tw' drew more rigid conclusions than you, and agree it is a positive sign that doesn't yet have full credibility.

Rookie/ yute QBs that become long term starters learn from their mistakes. That learning includes how to perform under stress, such as a two-minute drill with the game on the line. Ponder did well in those limited opportunities.

Somewhere in the cobwebs is probably lurking this (link) memory, which you've 'momentarily misplaced' Wink for some reason:

http://articles.latimes.com/1985-12-02/sports/sp-12539_1_vikings

Notes: first word in 2nd paragraph is a mistake. s.b. WW.
Also note: 8:27 left.


I don't quite understand what that article was suppose to suggest other than Kramer was terrible. Most knew he was.

Peterson is a weapon. We know what he can do to defenses of 8-9 guys in the box. The NFL is a passing league now. I don't want to build around a guy that manages the damn game. I want a guy I know I'm confident in the last 2 minutes having to pass the ball. That guy makes Peterson an even more dangerous threat, because they can limit a one dimensional play book with ponder. No defense could stop an offense with top 15 qb and Peterson in the backfield.

Ponder isn't good enough to come out firing the ball down field to set up the run. It's always the other way around. If this offense was anything close to balance we could do great things. I honestly think the play book is limited for ponder to keep him out of trouble. I saw the same with Jackson. Everyone complains about Musgrave. Maybe he knows something we don't about our QB position
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 9:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:
Purplexing wrote:
disaacs wrote:
Purplexing wrote:

Before you go further down this road, please explain why the number of 4th quarter comebacks over a 27 game career are a significant measure of potential, actual success, or resilience?

I would guess that few NFL teams have more than a handful of situations over 27 games where a comeback win is possible.

That ^ is why it is too soon to draw conclusions.


I'm not drawing any conclusions. I think it's just a positive sign.

While there are certainly a "handful" of situations that come up, over the past decade or so, it's been clearly evident (at least to me) that the Vikings haven't had a QB capable of coming through.

In my opinion, in those situations, I've seen more poise from Ponder than I've seen from any young Vikings' QB in practically my entire lifetime. Tarvaris folded like a cheap suit. Daunte generally fumbled it away. Rich Gannon had his moments, but Denny never had enough faith in him to put it in his hands (nor did he really with any QB). And Tommy Kramer would get sacked 20 yds back to put them out of range (I wasn't old enough to watch the "Two-Minute Tommy" years, because he was more "Two Sacks" Tommy when I watched him).

Therefore, while I don't think anyone can draw any final conclusions on it, I think there is enough evidence to support my faith in his ability to make a comeback to have patience with him while he develops the rest of his game.


I thought 'tw' drew more rigid conclusions than you, and agree it is a positive sign that doesn't yet have full credibility.

Rookie/ yute QBs that become long term starters learn from their mistakes. That learning includes how to perform under stress, such as a two-minute drill with the game on the line. Ponder did well in those limited opportunities.

Somewhere in the cobwebs is probably lurking this (link) memory, which you've 'momentarily misplaced' Wink for some reason:

http://articles.latimes.com/1985-12-02/sports/sp-12539_1_vikings

Notes: first word in 2nd paragraph is a mistake. s.b. WW.
Also note: 8:27 left.


I don't quite understand what that article was suppose to suggest other than Kramer was terrible. Most knew he was.

Peterson is a weapon. We know what he can do to defenses of 8-9 guys in the box. The NFL is a passing league now. I don't want to build around a guy that manages the damn game. I want a guy I know I'm confident in the last 2 minutes having to pass the ball. That guy makes Peterson an even more dangerous threat, because they can limit a one dimensional play book with ponder. No defense could stop an offense with top 15 qb and Peterson in the backfield.

Ponder isn't good enough to come out firing the ball down field to set up the run. It's always the other way around. If this offense was anything close to balance we could do great things. I honestly think the play book is limited for ponder to keep him out of trouble. I saw the same with Jackson. Everyone complains about Musgrave. Maybe he knows something we don't about our QB position


I still fail to see why 'comeback ability' is critical to winning a championship.

A good team with a good D won't fall far behind their opponent in the score. If they have a great D and QB and decent RB, or a great D and RB and game manager QB, they will win many games.

How many times will a team need to make a 4th comeback to win?

Since you are so concerned about it, what is Ponder's record in comeback situations?

A few people above ^ pointed out a few comeback wins by Ponder. I didn't read anything about failed comeback attempts, but I would guess a few happened.

One easy criticism of Ponder at this point is that he is inconsistent, game by game.
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