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Ponder-iffic or Ponder-errible? the 2013 Pre-Season Debate.
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KeystoneViking


Joined: 27 Oct 2012
Posts: 129
Location: North Dakota
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

disaacs wrote:
vikingsrule wrote:
KeystoneViking wrote:
There is no way a Qb from Cornell goes top 5...


I thought the same last year in regards to a Tackle from Central Michigan.


Central Michigan is still a I-A school, Cornell is not.


Exactly, you can't say that level of competition doesn't matter. In every highlight I watch he has an extraordinarily clean pocket to throw from and it seems like they are always destroying the team they are playing.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cornell finished 4-6 last year, 2-5 in conference...

The pocket was likely always clean because you were watching highlights.
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PaulWall_23


Joined: 08 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
CriminalMind wrote:
Cam Newton
Andrew Luck
Colin Kaepernick
Andy Dalton
RG3
Wilson
Ryan Tannehill

I would take any of these QBs over Ponder.


That's a decent list.


I would take the upside with Kirk Cousins right now over Ponder as well.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PaulWall_23 wrote:
Krauser wrote:
CriminalMind wrote:
Cam Newton
Andrew Luck
Colin Kaepernick
Andy Dalton
RG3
Wilson
Ryan Tannehill

I would take any of these QBs over Ponder.


That's a decent list.


I would take the upside with Kirk Cousins right now over Ponder as well.


I might agree with you in regards to Cousins, though I'd probably group him and Ponder as pretty much equal to Dalton in upside.
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The Gnat


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Right now I'm doing an interesting little side project, seeing how the top level QB's do in passing in the intermediate range (percentage wise) and what number we should be looking for Ponder to progress to, right now his short yardage passing (behind the line of scrimmage and up to 10 yards) is very good, but his mid range passing needs to become better. The deep ball, he is actually solid over 40 yards, and with every QB it fluctuates massively from year to year, so those I think will factor less into his success it is the 10-30 yard range which I'm seeing that the elite QB's tend to be 5-8% higher on the 10-20 yard range, and 10% higher on the 20-30 yard range. So that's the gap that we need to see improvement from Ponder. If he can improve both and cut that difference in half, he can be a very solid starter. The deep ball, it turns out and probably not surprisingly, isn't a huge factor when it comes to consistent success.

More to come.... Laughing
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VikesGuy07


Joined: 24 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Gnat wrote:
Right now I'm doing an interesting little side project, seeing how the top level QB's do in passing in the intermediate range (percentage wise) and what number we should be looking for Ponder to progress to, right now his short yardage passing (behind the line of scrimmage and up to 10 yards) is very good, but his mid range passing needs to become better. The deep ball, he is actually solid over 40 yards, and with every QB it fluctuates massively from year to year, so those I think will factor less into his success it is the 10-30 yard range which I'm seeing that the elite QB's tend to be 5-8% higher on the 10-20 yard range, and 10% higher on the 20-30 yard range. So that's the gap that we need to see improvement from Ponder. If he can improve both and cut that difference in half, he can be a very solid starter. The deep ball, it turns out and probably not surprisingly, isn't a huge factor when it comes to consistent success.

More to come.... Laughing


This is the exact same thing I've been saying, but I never went and looked up statistical evidence to support it haha. Outside of Favre for one year, the Vikings have had no consistent intermediate passing game. Those 15-20-yard strikes to receivers cutting across the field are vital to the good offenses in today's NFL. All the good QBs make those throws relatively consistently. And Ponder has not shown an ability to do that up to this point. The team has to develop a reliable intermediate passing attack.
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The Gnat


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Averages: Overall W/ Ponder
< 0 78.2142857142857
1 - 10 68.9285714285714
11 - 20 53.8571428571429
21 - 30 38.8333333333333
31 - 40 31.8571428571429
41+ 26.2142857142857

Averages: Overall W/O Ponder
< 0 78.2
1 - 10 69.225
11 - 20 54.2
21 - 30 39.675
31 - 40 33.25
41+ 24.6

Averages: Ponder
< 0 78.5
1 - 10 63
11 - 20 47
21 - 30 22
31 - 40 4
41+ 58.5

What we can see if that at or behind the line of scrimmage, Ponder is slightly better than average, in the first 10 yards, he's slightly worse than average. But the 11 - 20 and 21 - 30 range are where he is very much below average. It also appears that he is on the 31 - 40 range, but the deviation on that is crazy for every single QB. And Ponder is better than average on 41+, but again, the deviation on that is crazy, from Drew Brees having 71% success one year, and 9% success a couple of years before.

Now I'm not doing this the most scientific way, and I've gone through 13 QB's in the past 5 years of data if they have that much, but the QB's who have had better success (have yet to do Dalton or Kaepernick) who are in their first two seasons, they've all had better success in their intermediate passing, Luck is the closest to Ponder, and Luck is actually worse as a passer in the 1 - 10 yard range. Cam Newton on the other hand, is better than Ponder at the longer distances, the deeper intermediate in particular, but struggles in the shorter intermediate passing range, which will hamper his long term success.

I'm planning, later to add in a few more QB's, Kapernick, Bradford, Freeman, and Dalton are the three most notable ones, but I also have to add in Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning, which will improve the average, but not be ideal comparisons for Ponder being most of their numbers will be further along in their careers.
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The Gnat


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Super Bowl Years
79.7142857142857
71.5714285714286
52.8571428571429
37.4285714285714
33.1428571428571
20.8571428571429

Figured I should add the averages for Super Bowl years.
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thestonedkoala


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I haven't seen anything stand out about Ponder in the pre-season and I think we're in for a long year. While going 0-4 without Peterson is explainable, I just haven't seen enough to say Ponder is going to push this team enough. We're a good team, but we're not an elite team. We have elite players but Ponder really is holding this team back.
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Uncle Buck


Joined: 10 Apr 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have a "stock options" type of mentality when it comes to Ponder this year. What I mean by this is that all I really want to see is big improvement, or nothing at all. The thing I worry about the most is if he improves just enough to keep his job, but not enough to make the team any better. This could keep us in the same situation for a few more years. Whatever happens with Ponder this year, I want it to be something definite. That way we will know.

If he hangs around without really becoming a true franchise quarterback, taking him in the draft could actually prove to cost this team more time to recover than the Herschel Walker trade. Hard to believe, but it's possible. That's why you don't panic, take a mediocre prospect, and hope for the best with at QB. The old line about making chicken salad was never more true than in cases like this.
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Klomp


Joined: 11 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've been a Ponder supporter, but I'm starting to change my stance (just a little).

A main reasoning used in the pro-Ponder camp is that it's a 28-focused offense, so numbers shouldn't be expected to be in Rodgers or Brees territory. While that's true, and I still believe it, there will come a time when Adrian won't play like the Adrian we know him as today. Eventually, he will slow down (even if its 10 years from now). When that happens, we need to be prepared by already having the skill position players necessary to transition away from being a run-first offense.

If Adrian isn't the same player, does anyone feel comfortable with Ponder leading a pass-first offense? I know I don't. The question is, when is the right time to make that switch?
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 7:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Klomp wrote:
I've been a Ponder supporter, but I'm starting to change my stance (just a little).

A main reasoning used in the pro-Ponder camp is that it's a 28-focused offense, so numbers shouldn't be expected to be in Rodgers or Brees territory. While that's true, and I still believe it, there will come a time when Adrian won't play like the Adrian we know him as today. Eventually, he will slow down (even if its 10 years from now). When that happens, we need to be prepared by already having the skill position players necessary to transition away from being a run-first offense.

If Adrian isn't the same player, does anyone feel comfortable with Ponder leading a pass-first offense? I know I don't. The question is, when is the right time to make that switch?


This is a similar situation to the Chargers in the early 2000s. Tomlinson was the offense while Brees was a very poor QB. His numbers werent even better then Ponder's through year 3. Eventually Brees had a breakout season and had the Chargers committed to him, maybe they would have won a super bowl.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Klomp wrote:
I've been a Ponder supporter, but I'm starting to change my stance (just a little).

A main reasoning used in the pro-Ponder camp is that it's a 28-focused offense, so numbers shouldn't be expected to be in Rodgers or Brees territory. While that's true, and I still believe it, there will come a time when Adrian won't play like the Adrian we know him as today. Eventually, he will slow down (even if its 10 years from now). When that happens, we need to be prepared by already having the skill position players necessary to transition away from being a run-first offense.

If Adrian isn't the same player, does anyone feel comfortable with Ponder leading a pass-first offense? I know I don't. The question is, when is the right time to make that switch?


Your perspective is partly based on Ponder and WRs like Aromashadu, who didn't survive the first series of cuts by Da Bearrrsss, and Michael Jenkins, who was cut by the Patriots in their first series of cuts.

Look forward in time when AP is slowing down, but Patterson, Wright and maybe Childs have matured, Jennings is slowing but may be reliable, and another WR steps up as a solid WR#5; e.g. R. Smith, Burton, Webb, etc.

I also think some people are basing Ponder's ability on the 2013 pre-season, in which he threw the ball less than 30 times. Vanilla offense, no AP, no complex patterns, etc.

Patience.

edited to change '20 attempts' to '30 attempts'.
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thestonedkoala


Joined: 28 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:

This is a similar situation to the Chargers in the early 2000s. Tomlinson was the offense while Brees was a very poor QB. His numbers werent even better then Ponder's through year 3. Eventually Brees had a breakout season and had the Chargers committed to him, maybe they would have won a super bowl.


Well, if you want to compare Mike Riley with Leslie Frazier go right ahead. Where is our Marty then? Furthermore, while Brees had problems in San Diego, he broke 3,000 yards passing his first season, and pretty much never posted < 3,000 yard's except his 2nd year but he only played 11 games then.

If Ponder is to break out, we need a Sean Payton. And we don't have him. Brees is such a unique case.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 7:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thestonedkoala wrote:
vikingsrule wrote:

This is a similar situation to the Chargers in the early 2000s. Tomlinson was the offense while Brees was a very poor QB. His numbers werent even better then Ponder's through year 3. Eventually Brees had a breakout season and had the Chargers committed to him, maybe they would have won a super bowl.


Well, if you want to compare Mike Riley with Leslie Frazier go right ahead. Where is our Marty then? Furthermore, while Brees had problems in San Diego, he broke 3,000 yards passing his first season, and pretty much never posted < 3,000 yard's except his 2nd year but he only played 11 games then.

If Ponder is to break out, we need a Sean Payton. And we don't have him. Brees is such a unique case.


Ponder only had one season where he had an opportunity to break 3000 yards. He finished with 2935. Close enough.
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