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holyghost
Joined: 18 Jan 2007
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 Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2013 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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It's as good a year as any for us to trade back, and I'll tell you why.
1. To start, if there were more "elite" prospects at the very top - meaning like last year with 2 great QB propsects - we wouldn't be a target at #3 to trade with anyway. The trade up would come sooner, to #1 or 2. Fact is #3 is not a fantastic trade up spot in any draft.
2. KC and Jax are very likely to stay away from the QB at this point (Geno Smith) based on their moves and what they have on their roster. It leaves us in the position of being the first legitimate possible spot where the QB goes.
3. Why am I only pointing out Smith? I'll tell you why. Because the trade up to the top of the draft rarely happens, but when it does happen it is almost always for the QB. It's exceptionally rare to trade up this high for anyone but a QB.
4. There are a number of question mark teams under us whose QB situation is questionable and who could be seen as possible interested places for Smith. Philly, Cleve, Buff, Ariz, Jets. Every one of them has a possible or potential interest for Smith. Not saying it's likely, but there is a reasoning behind each of them as a possibility. Philly has an entirely new coach group, may want to start with a high drafted QB like alot of new regimes do. Same goes for Cleveland. There's no telling with certainty either team likes Vick, Foles, Weeden, or McCoy for the future. Buffalo is a clear place of possible interest, and Arizona as well. NYJ quite possibly too.
5. So you're talking about 5 teams in the 6 picks behind us who might step up for the QB. And no likely teams in front of us for that guy.
6. The problematic combines or status of Star and Moore notwithstanding, I don't think it affects our trade back options. Simply because I do not believe teams would have a strong incentive to trade up for a non-QB unless that guy was a certain game changer type. And then, he would probably be gone before #3 anyway.
Now all in all none of this is certain or guarantees a trade back in any way, shape or form. However, at #3, which is not really a premium slot to begin with in any draft, I think the point is that we are as well positioned to trade back as is possible at this point in this draft. |
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holyghost
Joined: 18 Jan 2007
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| Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2013 9:49 pm Post subject: |
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| Darkness wrote: | | If we can trade down, then so could the Chiefs and Jaguars. Hopefully it happens, but we're not anymore likely then those 2 teams. |
Maybe, but maybe not. Those teams really are not at the point where they can bluff as much interest in a QB as we can. The only reason to trade up to KC is to block Jax from Smith, and the only reason to trade with Jax is to grab Smith before us. However, after us there is a run of teams who may have a genuine QB interest for varying reasons. We're as well off in that regard as we could be, that's all I'm saying.
For all we know Jax sent out the rumor that we like Smith... |
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Darkness
Joined: 24 Jun 2012
Posts: 5520
Location: CA-TX
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 2:15 am Post subject: |
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| What if the Raiders are bluffing about wanting Smith to increase the odds of a team trading up before us to get him, increasing the odds of the prospect we really want falling to us? Draft rumors are like a game of hold em. Hard to get a read on teams. |
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Joe Nobody
Joined: 12 Feb 2013
Posts: 454
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 3:23 am Post subject: |
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| holyghost wrote: | | Darkness wrote: | | If we can trade down, then so could the Chiefs and Jaguars. Hopefully it happens, but we're not anymore likely then those 2 teams. |
Maybe, but maybe not. Those teams really are not at the point where they can bluff as much interest in a QB as we can. The only reason to trade up to KC is to block Jax from Smith, and the only reason to trade with Jax is to grab Smith before us. However, after us there is a run of teams who may have a genuine QB interest for varying reasons. We're as well off in that regard as we could be, that's all I'm saying.
For all we know Jax sent out the rumor that we like Smith... |
Another reason to trade with KC or Jax would be if they agreed to trade down for less value. No one sticks to the chart like it's the law. If one of those two teams wants to trade out, and they'll do it for cheaper than we will, we lose. |
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holyghost
Joined: 18 Jan 2007
Posts: 5703
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 11:36 am Post subject: |
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| Joe Nobody wrote: | | holyghost wrote: | | Darkness wrote: | | If we can trade down, then so could the Chiefs and Jaguars. Hopefully it happens, but we're not anymore likely then those 2 teams. |
Maybe, but maybe not. Those teams really are not at the point where they can bluff as much interest in a QB as we can. The only reason to trade up to KC is to block Jax from Smith, and the only reason to trade with Jax is to grab Smith before us. However, after us there is a run of teams who may have a genuine QB interest for varying reasons. We're as well off in that regard as we could be, that's all I'm saying.
For all we know Jax sent out the rumor that we like Smith... |
Another reason to trade with KC or Jax would be if they agreed to trade down for less value. No one sticks to the chart like it's the law. If one of those two teams wants to trade out, and they'll do it for cheaper than we will, we lose. |
Totally true. But when's the last time a cheap trade out from a high slot happened? Never. So I would say it is unlikely. |
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oakdb36
Joined: 02 Mar 2006
Posts: 13890
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 11:44 am Post subject: |
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| Joe Nobody wrote: | | holyghost wrote: | | Darkness wrote: | | If we can trade down, then so could the Chiefs and Jaguars. Hopefully it happens, but we're not anymore likely then those 2 teams. |
Maybe, but maybe not. Those teams really are not at the point where they can bluff as much interest in a QB as we can. The only reason to trade up to KC is to block Jax from Smith, and the only reason to trade with Jax is to grab Smith before us. However, after us there is a run of teams who may have a genuine QB interest for varying reasons. We're as well off in that regard as we could be, that's all I'm saying.
For all we know Jax sent out the rumor that we like Smith... |
Another reason to trade with KC or Jax would be if they agreed to trade down for less value. No one sticks to the chart like it's the law. If one of those two teams wants to trade out, and they'll do it for cheaper than we will, we lose. |
Because the team trading up will only trade up as high as it needs to go and if they have an agreement with KC or Jax but don't feel they have to go top 2 they'll come to us and ask for a cheaper deal.
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holyghost
Joined: 18 Jan 2007
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 11:54 am Post subject: |
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| Darkness wrote: | | What if the Raiders are bluffing about wanting Smith to increase the odds of a team trading up before us to get him, increasing the odds of the prospect we really want falling to us? Draft rumors are like a game of hold em. Hard to get a read on teams. |
It's possible. Ultimately my take was based not on draft rumors. Draft rumors can indicate anything really, because you have no idea where they come from or why.
I was posting in regards to teams whose interest in a QB can at least be read into or assumed to be legitimate. 5 of 6 teams behind us can be rationalized as having a legit interest in a QB. Even if the interest isn't there or real, it can still be assumed. And neither us nor the teams in front of us can be assumed to have a real interest in the QB for the same type of "cold look at the roster and regime" type reasoning. So it puts us in as good a position as we could be in when it comes to a high but non descript pick in a weak top end draft. |
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ch8878
Joined: 12 Mar 2012
Posts: 2620
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 11:57 am Post subject: |
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Rotoworld
| Quote: | Steve Corkran of the Contra Costa Times believes ESPN's report of the Raiders' interest in West Virginia QB Geno Smith is a "smokescreen."
In other words, false information planted by the Raiders in an attempt to trade down. Corkran believes Oakland would draft Texas A&M LT Luke Joeckel were he available at No. 3. It's hard to tell what info to believe in Lying Season, but the Raiders' interest in Smith would make sense. Carson Palmer, 33, isn't a long-term solution, and he's a $13 million salary albatross on an uncompetitive roster. |
Hopefully they can trade back.
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Silver&Black88
Joined: 24 Feb 2009
Posts: 31796
Location: Rochester, NY
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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| ch8878 wrote: | Rotoworld
| Quote: | Steve Corkran of the Contra Costa Times believes ESPN's report of the Raiders' interest in West Virginia QB Geno Smith is a "smokescreen."
In other words, false information planted by the Raiders in an attempt to trade down. Corkran believes Oakland would draft Texas A&M LT Luke Joeckel were he available at No. 3. It's hard to tell what info to believe in Lying Season, but the Raiders' interest in Smith would make sense. Carson Palmer, 33, isn't a long-term solution, and he's a $13 million salary albatross on an uncompetitive roster. |
Hopefully they can trade back. |
Cork's a moron though. If there was a a smokescreen that we want Geno, Jacksonville would have planted it so they can get a team to trade with them and beat us to the punch.
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holyghost
Joined: 18 Jan 2007
Posts: 5703
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Silver&Black88 wrote: | | ch8878 wrote: | Rotoworld
| Quote: | Steve Corkran of the Contra Costa Times believes ESPN's report of the Raiders' interest in West Virginia QB Geno Smith is a "smokescreen."
In other words, false information planted by the Raiders in an attempt to trade down. Corkran believes Oakland would draft Texas A&M LT Luke Joeckel were he available at No. 3. It's hard to tell what info to believe in Lying Season, but the Raiders' interest in Smith would make sense. Carson Palmer, 33, isn't a long-term solution, and he's a $13 million salary albatross on an uncompetitive roster. |
Hopefully they can trade back. |
Cork's a moron though. If there was a a smokescreen that we want Geno, Jacksonville would have planted it so they can get a team to trade with them and beat us to the punch. |
Smokescreens planted regarding other teams are a joke anyway. Any GM can call McKenzie and gauge whether or not we would trade back just by asking.
This coule be the kind of rumor planted just to make our pick an uncertainty in general, thus gently helping a frenzy get foamed up. |
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unko_B
Joined: 21 Feb 2013
Posts: 30
Location: A Concrete Jungle
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 9:59 pm Post subject: |
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IMO I think the Bills would be the only team that would want to trade up for Geno Smith. I think he would be great fit with CJ & Stevie. Geno would have his playmakers he needs with at least those two. Outside of the Bills, if the Raiders dont take him he could fall. Not a knock on Geno, but rather teams after #8 could afford for him to sit behind the current starter if they indeed decide to draft him (i doubt the Jets grab him).
With that being said, I look at Tampa Bay who holds the #13 pick to be interested in the #3 pick. Ahead of the CB needy Eagles & Lions, the Bucs could be tempted to go after Millner as they continue to rebuild (esp on defense) through the draft. Dropping ten spots seems a bit steep but if we were able to snag their 2nd (i doubt) 3rd &/or the 4th from NE (Talib trade) I'd feel real good. Realistically i see #13, #64 &/or #75 &/or possibly a future pick.
Now before you guys go apesh*t & rip it a part, its just a thought & my own opinion. I haven't read anything to suggest this nor have i used the draft trade formula equation thinga-majig. I was a bit surprised no one had brought this up before.
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DOCLEW 28
Joined: 10 Nov 2006
Posts: 10789
Location: East Oakland
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 11:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Baggabonez wrote: | | Raidin wrote: | | Baggabonez wrote: | | Some NFL organization will fall in love with someone. Happens every year. |
Falling in love and trading into the top 5 are two different stories. No one traded to the top 5 in 2011, 10, 08, 07, 06 <- stopped going back further here. |
You are not accounting for the new CBA, Sir, which is anticipated to facilitate many more trades evidenced by 2012. This isn't conjecture by me it's what evaluators are expecting. In 2011 it was fresh and GMs were figuring it out. If teams have a need and the perfect player for them is on deck they are more likely to package multiple picks together to acquire his rights. |
That is what we all hope. A team that needs one perfect piece to step up and wow us with a deal.
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War Room Slayer
Joined: 27 Mar 2006
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Location: Peyton Manning is perfect!...for me to POOP ON
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| Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:14 pm Post subject: |
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| mhuff24 wrote: | call me crazy but i have a feeling, and yes its only a feeling, that buffalo is going to swap firsts with us so they can be sure to draft geno smith. i read somewhere that their gm has said they are going to draft a franchise quaterback this year. i think we will be able to bluff enough to force them to trade with us, as theyll be afraid that we will take him, and if we dont philly and arizona are still realistic options to take him.
as i said its only just a feeling but when we're all on the edges of our seats on draftday anxious to see who we will pick i predict we'll see the raiders logos in the background turn to bills logos and we will hear the words "there has been a trade" come out of the commish's mouth |
With the release of Fitz this is very possible now.
Yeah, he may be there later, but if they want to secure that no one else trades us for him then 3 is the spot.
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OakRaiders3828
Joined: 18 Aug 2007
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Location: Pennsylvania
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| Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:16 pm Post subject: |
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Bills, IMO, aren't trading up with us. They just don't have the fire power with only 6 picks.
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Darkness
Joined: 24 Jun 2012
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| Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:22 pm Post subject: |
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| OakRaiders3828 wrote: | | Bills, IMO, aren't trading up with us. They just don't have the fire power with only 6 picks. |
That, and Buddy Nix said in his taped phone conversation that this is a bad year to have a need at QB. |
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