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Drafting Gore's Replacement
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P-52


Joined: 05 Dec 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gores replacement is already on the roster....Kendall
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If all fails, I will suit up for the veteran minimum.
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adamq


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
If all fails, I will suit up for the veteran minimum.


Just hope they let you wear number 4
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adamq wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
If all fails, I will suit up for the veteran minimum.


Just hope they let you wear number 4



Why? All I need is to Dashon to leave so I can get my 38 back.
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adamq


Joined: 18 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
adamq wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
If all fails, I will suit up for the veteran minimum.


Just hope they let you wear number 4



Why? All I need is to Dashon to leave so I can get my 38 back.



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I'd rather have Tebow than any other QB in the NFL besides Rodgers, and I may even take him over Rodgers due to the difference in age.
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adamq wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
sbrown wrote:
I think hunter and LMJ can cary the load as we add weapons on the outside.


+1



Agreed.. Once Gore is gone a third back will be needed, but Jewell could even be that guy.


yep... struby 3 likes Hampton, and that's all the endorsement I need to have some faith in him. Very Happy
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:


You again fail to explain why Hunter and James can't get it done, other than by citing size. Is it durability? Just say so, if you think that's the concern we face. Is it effectiveness? If so, how? Will they suddenly run slower because they have more carries? Will they have worse vision? Or do you think we can't use as many of the inside runs with them, and that the lack of diversity will be their undoing? Just explain it by saying something other than "there are few successful backs their size". Two of the best RBs in NFL history were as small as Hunter is. Warrick Dunn, a player the size of James had a long and productive, mostly injury-free, career. So, are you basing your opinion on an assessment of their talent, or just on statistics-based fear?


It's all those things you mentioned, but those things are kind of irrelevant to my argument. Are there any 6 foot centers in the NBA? Any 300 pound centers in the NHL? Any 200 pound centers in the NFL? Would it be an example of "statistics-based fear" if I refused to draft guys who fit those three descriptions? Of course not. I would suggest the reason is because size actually does matter in sports - quite a bit in fact.

Look at it this way. If I said I had a great 150 pound back for you to consider as a replacement for Gore you'd think I was nuts. At 160, you'd still say that. Somewhere along the way you'd begin to think it's more reasonable. I'm pretty sure that's true. If so, then you understand and agree that size matters. Now we're only differing on where we would draw the line. For me I'd make that call by looking at NFL backs and see what the size typically associated with high performance over several seasons is. And I'd look at the range. And if I found no 5'7" sub-200 pound back has performed as well as Gore over a period of a few years, then I would conclude that size is still too small. Do you have a better way to suggest?A single example from a few years ago won't do it for me.

But I question whether your one example even supports your point. It seems to support mine more than yours. Dunn was a near world class track guy that was reported to have run a sub 4.3 40. I've already pointed out that smaller backs can compensate for their lack of size if they have elite speed. You just added another example to the list of guys from this year that I already identified. Hunter is fast, but does not possess world-class speed. In any case, would Dunn make a good long term replacement for Gore? Dunn had seasons of 447,616, 672, 720, and 780 yards. Ignoring their rookie years when neither was a regular starter, Gore averaged close to 1200 yards over his next seven seasons; Dunn less than 850. Gore's worst year, when he was injured is still better than many of Dunn's seasons. Dunn's numbers might well be what we could get from a full-time Hunter, maybe better since he had world class speed. And those numbers are far worse than Gore's. That's not my idea of a good Gore replacement plan.

If I can't sway you, would you at leastt consider the viewpoint of an NFL professional who has actually run a draft, and actually spoken on this very issue? Last night (talk about timely!) the NFL network had a special on number 1 overall picks. In part of it they had a lengthy discussion with Casserly about how he decided to take Mario over Reggie Bush. He said he thought Bush was one of the best backs he'd seen in some time but in the end he believed that he just didn't have the right body type to be a successful every down back in the NFL ( I beleive those are pretty close to his exact words). Even with the rare speed that Bush had to offset his size, Casserly still saw him as a "situational guy" (his words again), not as an every down back. He made it completely clear that he made the call based on body type, not on skills, which he thought incredibly highly of. And since he couldn't get what he thought would be a successful every down back he went with Mario instead. Now if a Casserly thinks body type is important and that certain body types are not likely to be successful every down backs that's enough for me. Perhaps what you chose to derisively label as "statistics-based fear" is simply sound judgement based on experience.
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rudyZ


Joined: 12 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You look at it backward. Don't rule out a player because of size, but because of the traits caused by his size. If you don't make the intellectual effort to analyze what traits he brings to the game, that's how you risk missing out on a great player. That's why I simply asked you to elaborate (several times) instead of just falling back on the size issue, as if it was a be-all and end-all type of deal.

You cited exaggerated examples of size in various sports. Brian Boyle, a center for the Rangers, was considered too tall to play an offense role in the NHL. Too tall, not agile enough. There simply aren't any 6'7" centers. So he was overlooked by many teams. But the Rangers gave him a chance, and he's a decent player for them. You mentioned 6' centers in basketball. I know you exaggerated for emphasis, but there was a time when it was unthinkable to have a center under 7'. It was all the rage. When I was a basketball fan, I was a fan of the Raptors (Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady in the same backcourt!). They had a 6'9" center whom people considered undersized. Anthonio Davis. What did it matter that he was so small? He defended other centers well. He blocked, he rebounded, ran the floor, scored. But he was overlooked. Coming out of college, he was forced to go play in greece and italy before a NBA would give him a chance. But he was a damn good player.

When you take the Dunn comparison, keep in mind I compared him to LaMike in size, not to Gore. I never said I looked at James to be a feature back, just that his size alone shouldn't disqualify him from consideration. Dunn spent the great majority of his career in two-backs systems. He shared the backfield in Tampa with Mike Alstott, and shared it in Atlanta with TJ Duckett and others. In this thread, I don't think anyone discussed James being a starter, only as a back-up/change of pace back. But I maintain, his size still shouldn't disqualify him. What should disqualify him are durability concerns DUE TO HIS SIZE, and the ability to run inside. Those are arguments. But mentioning size alone, that's a little lazy.

Oh, and about Dunn... you mentioned his 5 worst seasons... what about 1026, 1106, 1133, 1140 and 1416? 3 of those coming at age 29 or older. For a small guy who should be fragile and unable to take a pounding, that's weird. He should have broken down and lost effectiveness with time, no?

Now, Reggie Bush... there's a marked difference here. We're talking about the top overall pick with a huge amount of money tied to it, at the time. You have to look for the perfect prospect at that point, and nitpick about anything possible. Casserly mentioned size as a criteria, sure. But he could have used other terms. Reggie wasn't a great inside runner either, and that's a concern. If you get a one-dimensional runner (outside runner) first overall, you're not doing your team any favor. Using size is a lazy, easy cop out when trying to justify dismissing a runningback. There are reasons behind the size that are totally reasonable. Mentioning size alone proves Casserly didn't do his job well and deserved to be fired. I'm pretty sure it is universally agreed that Casserly is terrible. He did make the right call with Bush, but not for the right reasons.
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DirtyJersey9er


Joined: 17 Feb 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Running Back is one of the few positions where you could draft someone and they would make an impact year 1 so really drafting a replacement for Gore can be done at any time.

I have faith Kendall Hunter can be the guy right away but if the team decides to hedge their bets and Marcus Lattimore, for example, falls to one of the 3rd round picks and I am Harbaalke I jump on the pick.

But I'd say the year he is off the roster we could easily use a pick in that draft on a replacement as RBs from this draft class showed a lot. I mean late first round is like the money spot for rookie RBs anyway and I think we will be picking there a lot in the coming years.

Guys picked in what I call the RB sweet spot since 2000(last 10 picks of round 1 and first 10 of round 2):
Michael Bennett
Willis McGahee
Steven Jackson
DeAngelo Williams
Joseph Addai
Chris Johnson
Javhid Best
Doug Martin
David Wilson

That is a decent number, I only included pro-bowlers so there are names like DeShaun Foster who I didn't include. Bennett is the only one who wasn't consistant as a starter.(Addai also but he was a starter for awhile and wasn't awful)

And most of them played well year 1 so think we can wait a year or two. Plus I think Gore's carries go down since we also have the option of running Kaepernick now. That will give Gore an extra year or two.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 4:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
You look at it backward. .


Funny because that's what I was thinking about your perspective. There's never been (or maybe you'll find some rare exception) a 5'7" 199 back who put together a series of 1000+ yard seasons. Yet you keep asking me to tell you why Hunter won't be the first. Seems to me like you're the one who ought to be explaining why Hunter will be able do something no one before him has ever done.
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
You look at it backward. .


Funny because that's what I was thinking about your perspective. There's never been (or maybe you'll find some rare exception) a 5'7" 199 back who put together a series of 1000+ yard seasons. Yet you keep asking me to tell you why Hunter won't be the first. Seems to me like you're the one who ought to be explaining why Hunter will be able do something no one before him has ever done.



Walter Payton was 200 lbs. Barry Sanders was 202 lbs. Are you really arguing over 3 lbs?

Look at the all-time leading rushers... half of them are under 210lbs. What if Kendall eats a cheeseburger and tips the scale at exactly 200lbs? Does it change your mind on the subject? What if he eats two cheeseburgers, does he become a feature back? 3 cheeseburgers and he's a hall of famer? Why even draft those light boys... what's the point of it? What are their talents good for, if they weigh under 200lbs? What a waste!! We should have taken Delone Carter (238 lbs), Bilal Powel (204 lbs) or Jamie Harper (233 lbs) instead. What was Baalke thinking?! Stupid man. Our 2011 draft class just keeps getting worse and worse...
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48 1/2ers


Joined: 01 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
You look at it backward. .


Funny because that's what I was thinking about your perspective. There's never been (or maybe you'll find some rare exception) a 5'7" 199 back who put together a series of 1000+ yard seasons. Yet you keep asking me to tell you why Hunter won't be the first. Seems to me like you're the one who ought to be explaining why Hunter will be able do something no one before him has ever done.



Walter Payton was 200 lbs. Barry Sanders was 202 lbs. Are you really arguing over 3 lbs?

Look at the all-time leading rushers... half of them are under 210lbs. What if Kendall eats a cheeseburger and tips the scale at exactly 200lbs? Does it change your mind on the subject? What if he eats two cheeseburgers, does he become a feature back? 3 cheeseburgers and he's a hall of famer? Why even draft those light boys... what's the point of it? What are their talents good for, if they weigh under 200lbs? What a waste!! We should have taken Delone Carter (238 lbs), Bilal Powel (204 lbs) or Jamie Harper (233 lbs) instead. What was Baalke thinking?! Stupid man. Our 2011 draft class just keeps getting worse and worse...
Laughing seriously he's the exact size ray rice was when he was a rookie he's plenty big enough
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

48 1/2ers wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
You look at it backward. .


Funny because that's what I was thinking about your perspective. There's never been (or maybe you'll find some rare exception) a 5'7" 199 back who put together a series of 1000+ yard seasons. Yet you keep asking me to tell you why Hunter won't be the first. Seems to me like you're the one who ought to be explaining why Hunter will be able do something no one before him has ever done.



Walter Payton was 200 lbs. Barry Sanders was 202 lbs. Are you really arguing over 3 lbs?

Look at the all-time leading rushers... half of them are under 210lbs. What if Kendall eats a cheeseburger and tips the scale at exactly 200lbs? Does it change your mind on the subject? What if he eats two cheeseburgers, does he become a feature back? 3 cheeseburgers and he's a hall of famer? Why even draft those light boys... what's the point of it? What are their talents good for, if they weigh under 200lbs? What a waste!! We should have taken Delone Carter (238 lbs), Bilal Powel (204 lbs) or Jamie Harper (233 lbs) instead. What was Baalke thinking?! Stupid man. Our 2011 draft class just keeps getting worse and worse...
Laughing seriously he's the exact size ray rice was when he was a rookie he's plenty big enough



I blame the 49ers dietician for making him eat salad.
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4evera9er


Joined: 19 Sep 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

48 1/2ers wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
You look at it backward. .


Funny because that's what I was thinking about your perspective. There's never been (or maybe you'll find some rare exception) a 5'7" 199 back who put together a series of 1000+ yard seasons. Yet you keep asking me to tell you why Hunter won't be the first. Seems to me like you're the one who ought to be explaining why Hunter will be able do something no one before him has ever done.



Walter Payton was 200 lbs. Barry Sanders was 202 lbs. Are you really arguing over 3 lbs?

Look at the all-time leading rushers... half of them are under 210lbs. What if Kendall eats a cheeseburger and tips the scale at exactly 200lbs? Does it change your mind on the subject? What if he eats two cheeseburgers, does he become a feature back? 3 cheeseburgers and he's a hall of famer? Why even draft those light boys... what's the point of it? What are their talents good for, if they weigh under 200lbs? What a waste!! We should have taken Delone Carter (238 lbs), Bilal Powel (204 lbs) or Jamie Harper (233 lbs) instead. What was Baalke thinking?! Stupid man. Our 2011 draft class just keeps getting worse and worse...
Laughing seriously he's the exact size ray rice was when he was a rookie he's plenty big enough


In fairness, from memory, Ray Rice has a fairly different build to Hunter though.

For what it's worth, I would like to get a bigger back in there to replace Gore, but I see no reason to do that in this draft.

As previously mentioned, RB is one of the few positions where players are generally ready to start from the get go. I don't think it's something we should worry about investing a pick in for a couple of seasons (I also wouldn't mind Lattimore but I think a team with a more pressing need at the position will jump on him when they think he's worth taking).
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
Walter Payton was 200 lbs. Barry Sanders was 202 lbs. Are you really arguing over 3 lbs?.


Seriously? I let this pass last time. But can't let it go again. So when I say "never" I mean never in the era in which they play. "Small" for a RB varies with the era a guy played in. When you mentioned these guys last time I looked up the stats for one of Payton's years. Don't remember which now but the weight of the defensive linemen of his team that year were 245, 250, 260, 260 and 265. The LBs were around 225 to 235. And I also looked up other RBs. I stopped looking after I found at least a dozen guys that had good running stats that year that were under 210. In other words to clear - Payton was not a small back by the standards of his era. On the contrary he was pretty average sized. Different eras. Apples and oranges my friend.

rudyZ wrote:
What a waste!! We should have taken Delone Carter (238 lbs), Bilal Powel (204 lbs) or Jamie Harper (233 lbs) instead. What was Baalke thinking?! Stupid man. Our 2011 draft class just keeps getting worse and worse...


Terrible logic. All NFL football players are males. Doesn't mean all males are NFL football players. I never said weight was the only thing that mattered. Nor did I ever say that every big back is good. Nort did I say some 200 pound backs aren't better than others. All I said is that I don't see Hunter as a good plan as a full time, multi season replacement for Gore because of his size.
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