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Historical look at Rookie QB's
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e5i50blitz


Joined: 24 Sep 2008
Posts: 34
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:29 pm    Post subject: Historical look at Rookie QB's Reply with quote

I pulled some data for Rookie QB's seasons and sorted it for review.

To qualify for the list of QB's you had to have 100 completions in 2012, or you were a name bantered about in the forums (Jason Campbell) or an ex-Brown

To qualify your rookie season you had to have 150 or more attempts (around 7 games or more)

Some players marked with *Name sat 2 or more years prior to starting.
2012 rookies are marked <Name>

Brandon Weeden appears on the list twice.

**<Brandon Weeden> has the first game (Phily) removed, this would be a statistical outlier and thrown away typically looking at statistical models. (33pct pass, 5.1 rtg)

I did not throw away each players worst game in their rookie season, because I did not want to spend the time and also some players sat a year (Colin Kaepernick) and some started part way thru their rookie season. (Eli manning)

How you factor in the extra learning and practice time for some players and not others is up to you, I chose to throw out Weeden's first game and look only at his other 14 games.

<Brandon Weeden> has week (1) included, just to make some people happy

Here is the data, read into it what you want.
The Numbers are completion % and then QB rating. Data is sorted by QB rating.

What I noticed is comparing Weeden's rookie season to RG3 or Wilson is a high expectation, because none of todays starting players compare as well either.

<Robert Griffin III> 65.6 - 102.4
<Russell Wilson> 64.1 - 100
Colin Kaepernick 62.4 - 98.3
Ben Roethlisberger 66.4 - 98.1
* Tony Romo 65.3 - 95.1
* Aaron Rodgers 63.6 - 93.8
* Philip Rivers 61.7 - 92
* Matt Cassel 63.4 - 89.4
Jay Cutler 63.6 - 88.1
Matt Ryan 61.1 - 87.7
* Matt Schaub 66.4 - 87.2
Tom Brady 63.9 - 86.5
Cam Newton 60 - 84.5
* Derek Anderson 56.5 - 82.5
Michael Vick 54.9 - 81.6
Andy Dalton 58.1 - 80.4
Joe Flacco 60 - 80.3
<Nick Foles> 60.8 - 79.1
** <Brandon Weeden> 59.3 - 78.4
Carson Palmer 60.9 - 77.3
Drew Brees 60.8 - 76.9
Sam Bradford 60 - 76.5
<Andrew Luck> 54.1 - 76.5
Jason Campbell 53.1 - 76.5
Kevin Kolb 60.8 - 76.1
<Ryan Tannehill> 58.3 - 76.1
Chad Henne 60.8 - 75.2
Colt mcCoy 60.8 - 74.5
Jake Locker 56.4 - 74
<Brandon Weeden> 57.4 - 72.6
Peyton Manning 56.7 - 71.2
* Matt Hasselbeck 54.8 - 70.9
Christian Ponder 54.3 - 70.1
* Ryan Fitzpatrick 59.4 - 70
* Brady Quinn 53.1 - 67.2
Blaine Gabbert 50.8 - 65.4
Mark Sanchez 53.8 - 63
Matthew Stafford 53.3 - 61
Josh Freeman 54.5 - 59.8
Eli Manning 48.2 - 55.4
Alex Smith 50.9 - 40.8
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Entropy


Joined: 16 Jul 2012
Posts: 2736
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:23 pm    Post subject: Re: Historical look at Rookie QB's Reply with quote

e5i50blitz wrote:
I pulled some data for Rookie QB's seasons and sorted it for review.

To qualify for the list of QB's you had to have 100 completions in 2012, or you were a name bantered about in the forums (Jason Campbell) or an ex-Brown

To qualify your rookie season you had to have 150 or more attempts (around 7 games or more)

Some players marked with *Name sat 2 or more years prior to starting.
2012 rookies are marked <Name>

Brandon Weeden appears on the list twice.

**<Brandon Weeden> has the first game (Phily) removed, this would be a statistical outlier and thrown away typically looking at statistical models. (33pct pass, 5.1 rtg)

I did not throw away each players worst game in their rookie season, because I did not want to spend the time and also some players sat a year (Colin Kaepernick) and some started part way thru their rookie season. (Eli manning)

How you factor in the extra learning and practice time for some players and not others is up to you, I chose to throw out Weeden's first game and look only at his other 14 games.

<Brandon Weeden> has week (1) included, just to make some people happy

Here is the data, read into it what you want.
The Numbers are completion % and then QB rating. Data is sorted by QB rating.

What I noticed is comparing Weeden's rookie season to RG3 or Wilson is a high expectation, because none of todays starting players compare as well either.

<Robert Griffin III> 65.6 - 102.4
<Russell Wilson> 64.1 - 100
Colin Kaepernick 62.4 - 98.3
Ben Roethlisberger 66.4 - 98.1
* Tony Romo 65.3 - 95.1
* Aaron Rodgers 63.6 - 93.8
* Philip Rivers 61.7 - 92
* Matt Cassel 63.4 - 89.4
Jay Cutler 63.6 - 88.1
Matt Ryan 61.1 - 87.7
* Matt Schaub 66.4 - 87.2
Tom Brady 63.9 - 86.5
Cam Newton 60 - 84.5
* Derek Anderson 56.5 - 82.5
Michael Vick 54.9 - 81.6
Andy Dalton 58.1 - 80.4
Joe Flacco 60 - 80.3
<Nick Foles> 60.8 - 79.1
** <Brandon Weeden> 59.3 - 78.4
Carson Palmer 60.9 - 77.3
Drew Brees 60.8 - 76.9
Sam Bradford 60 - 76.5
<Andrew Luck> 54.1 - 76.5
Jason Campbell 53.1 - 76.5
Kevin Kolb 60.8 - 76.1
<Ryan Tannehill> 58.3 - 76.1
Chad Henne 60.8 - 75.2
Colt mcCoy 60.8 - 74.5
Jake Locker 56.4 - 74
<Brandon Weeden> 57.4 - 72.6
Peyton Manning 56.7 - 71.2
* Matt Hasselbeck 54.8 - 70.9
Christian Ponder 54.3 - 70.1
* Ryan Fitzpatrick 59.4 - 70
* Brady Quinn 53.1 - 67.2
Blaine Gabbert 50.8 - 65.4
Mark Sanchez 53.8 - 63
Matthew Stafford 53.3 - 61
Josh Freeman 54.5 - 59.8
Eli Manning 48.2 - 55.4
Alex Smith 50.9 - 40.8


Interesting stuff. It seems that rookie QBs actually have done worse than Weeden, who knew?

Now, let's identify some factors associated with these performances:

1. Strength of rookie's opponents
2. Rookie's team defense
3. Rookie's running game
4. Experience and talent of rookie's passing targets
5. Difficulty of the offensive scheme in which the rookie was playing

I wonder if there is any way to find out how these factors may have contributed to or hindered each rookie's performance.

I also wonder how many of those guys listed had the least of those 5 factors.
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ditchdigger


Joined: 09 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are a few signs pointing to a significant leap in performance, should he be able to hold the competition for his job Banner has said will come in.

The Turner factor, where QBs in his system always show a leap in production in their first year with Norv. The Shotgun factor, where he will see fewer snaps under center where he was statistically much poorer. The batted ball factor, where almost all shallow crossing routes as primary reads will be gone from the offense.

While he was far from good his rookie year, based on the eyeball test alone, Weeden showed a lot of promise for an offense like the one he's been lucky enough to get his 2nd year.
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Entropy


Joined: 16 Jul 2012
Posts: 2736
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ditchdigger wrote:
There are a few signs pointing to a significant leap in performance, should he be able to hold the competition for his job Banner has said will come in.

The Turner factor, where QBs in his system always show a leap in production in their first year with Norv. The Shotgun factor, where he will see fewer snaps under center where he was statistically much poorer. The batted ball factor, where almost all shallow crossing routes as primary reads will be gone from the offense.

While he was far from good his rookie year, based on the eyeball test alone, Weeden showed a lot of promise for an offense like the one he's been lucky enough to get his 2nd year.


About the competition thing, I was wondering if that says more about McCoy than Weeden. I think most of us agree that McCoy offers little competition to Weeden, which the current guys might see as having caused some problems last year with respect to Weeden's "entitlement".

For all we know, they could all really like Weeden and had him in mind when they selected Chud and Norv. And they are now just trying to push his development.
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e5i50blitz


Joined: 24 Sep 2008
Posts: 34
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 5:30 pm    Post subject: Re: Historical look at Rookie QB's Reply with quote

Entropy wrote:

Interesting stuff. It seems that rookie QBs actually have done worse than Weeden, who knew?

Now, let's identify some factors associated with these performances:

1. Strength of rookie's opponents
2. Rookie's team defense
3. Rookie's running game
4. Experience and talent of rookie's passing targets
5. Difficulty of the offensive scheme in which the rookie was playing

I wonder if there is any way to find out how these factors may have contributed to or hindered each rookie's performance.

I also wonder how many of those guys listed had the least of those 5 factors.


Of course all of those things play a big role in how productive a quarterback is, however they are 100% subjective. There is no way to determine casuality or correlation with how a quarterback plays with those types of variables.

We all know that surrounding cast, coaching, amount of time practicing (years on bench) and many other variables are important and allow for great debate however in looking at this list we would not ever be able to determine which qb had what help to improve there stats.

I did separate time on the bench because if they spent 2 or years learning they were not thrown in the fire rookies, and most likely had a good qb in front of them for example (Aaron Rodgers) and their stats showed it when looking at the list.

The point of this exercise (at least for me) was to see if Weeden had comparable talents to the rookies that have entered the league in the last decade or so.

It appears without looking at wins or losses (which has a heck of a lot to do with supporting staff, defense,coaches,etc) that Weeden played within the realm of acceptable of other quarterback's that are actively playing in the league.

We can all be upset that Weeden is 29, however statistically speaking he played like a lot of rookies.
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Entropy


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 10:23 pm    Post subject: Re: Historical look at Rookie QB's Reply with quote

e5i50blitz wrote:
Entropy wrote:

Interesting stuff. It seems that rookie QBs actually have done worse than Weeden, who knew?

Now, let's identify some factors associated with these performances:

1. Strength of rookie's opponents
2. Rookie's team defense
3. Rookie's running game
4. Experience and talent of rookie's passing targets
5. Difficulty of the offensive scheme in which the rookie was playing

I wonder if there is any way to find out how these factors may have contributed to or hindered each rookie's performance.

I also wonder how many of those guys listed had the least of those 5 factors.


Of course all of those things play a big role in how productive a quarterback is, however they are 100% subjective. There is no way to determine casuality or correlation with how a quarterback plays with those types of variables.

We all know that surrounding cast, coaching, amount of time practicing (years on bench) and many other variables are important and allow for great debate however in looking at this list we would not ever be able to determine which qb had what help to improve there stats.

I did separate time on the bench because if they spent 2 or years learning they were not thrown in the fire rookies, and most likely had a good qb in front of them for example (Aaron Rodgers) and their stats showed it when looking at the list.

The point of this exercise (at least for me) was to see if Weeden had comparable talents to the rookies that have entered the league in the last decade or so.

It appears without looking at wins or losses (which has a heck of a lot to do with supporting staff, defense,coaches,etc) that Weeden played within the realm of acceptable of other quarterback's that are actively playing in the league.

We can all be upset that Weeden is 29, however statistically speaking he played like a lot of rookies.


I think that easily 3 of the 5 factors I listed can be quantified as well as a "QB rating". But, yes, the conclusions drawn from such will be subjective--but no more or less subjective than the conclusions drawn from a QB rating.

I do agree with your main point (and basically everything else). Weeden wasn't much different than almost all rookies, as rookies tend to not play their best football in the first place.
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bungleodeon


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 3:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like how you also highlighted all the 29 year old rookies that were already busts in 1 sport as well. Really helped me keep the criticisms in context.
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Thomas5737


Joined: 23 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 3:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bungleodeon wrote:
I like how you also highlighted all the 29 year old rookies that were already busts in 1 sport as well. Really helped me keep the criticisms in context.


Why do you keep bringing up his baseball career? What does it have to do with anything?

He was better at it than Micheal Jordan.
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bungleodeon


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thomas5737 wrote:
bungleodeon wrote:
I like how you also highlighted all the 29 year old rookies that were already busts in 1 sport as well. Really helped me keep the criticisms in context.


Why do you keep bringing up his baseball career? What does it have to do with anything?

He was better at it than Micheal Jordan.
The fact that he quit because he was horrible and was a complete bust doesn't bother you? His reason for quitting being that "it was easy to quit when I sucked to bad" (paraphrasing) doesn't bother you? Guy's supposed to be the leader of this team but is a known quitter and someone who failed at developing his talents , but it's not an issue to you? A top tier pitching talent that bounced around A ball and never improved, but that doesn't bother you?

MJ was a 3 time NBA champ BEFORE he entered baseball. MJ actually played outside of A ball. MJ only got a contract based on celebrity, not talent. Good comparison. Laughing
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2013: 36 Tackles - 5.5 Sacks -1 FF - 1 FR - 4 PD -2 STF
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Dawgpoun8017


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

He actually decided to retire from baseball cause of his shoulder
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bungleodeon


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dawgpoun8017 wrote:
He actually decided to retire from baseball cause of his shoulder
suuuuurreeeee


edit:
Quote:
On the decision to quit baseball and try college football:
I just wasn’t having much success,” Weeden said. “My numbers were average. I was giving up a lot of doubles in the gap. I always knew I wanted to play football if it didn’t work out, as far as my baseball career (goes). After the ’06 season, I had had enough, I decided I wanted to go back and get an education and play college football, and I think I made the right decision.


http://www.orangepower.com/threads/nokblog-brandon-weeden-on-%E2%80%9Cjon-gruden%E2%80%99s-qb-camp%E2%80%9D.142774/
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2011: 55 Tackles - 8.5 Sacks - 5 FF - 1 FR - 2 PD - 7 STF
2012: 54 Tackles - 7 Sacks - 1 FF - 3 PD - 2 STF
2013: 36 Tackles - 5.5 Sacks -1 FF - 1 FR - 4 PD -2 STF
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e5i50blitz


Joined: 24 Sep 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 6:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bungleodeon wrote:
I like how you also highlighted all the 29 year old rookies that were already busts in 1 sport as well. Really helped me keep the criticisms in context.


I like how you ignored the stats and went to a pure opinion based comment.

I like beer.....see that was easy.
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BwickBrownie


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

e5i50blitz wrote:
bungleodeon wrote:
I like how you also highlighted all the 29 year old rookies that were already busts in 1 sport as well. Really helped me keep the criticisms in context.


I like how you ignored the stats and went to a pure opinion based comment.

I like beer.....see that was easy.


Although I don't agree with the framing of Bungle's argument, his age does present a variable that none of the other rookies you have listed had to deal with. Seeing your list is encouraging in saying that Weeden's numbers this year don't project much as evidenced by the fact that (even including his first game) he is still one spot above Peyton Manning, but the thing that now needs to be looked at is out of that list of QB's, for the ones who have played five years or more, what is the range of time that it takes them to reach a plateau in production? Although I'm not asking you to actually do that research, I'm just pointing out that unlike a 22 year old rookie, just looking at the stats your presenting is a cold comfort because of the limited time frame the Browns have in which they need to determine if they should invest time in Weeden or view him as more of a stop gap while finding someone else to devote the time into developing.
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Entropy


Joined: 16 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 8:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bungleodeon wrote:
Dawgpoun8017 wrote:
He actually decided to retire from baseball cause of his shoulder
suuuuurreeeee


edit:
Quote:
On the decision to quit baseball and try college football:
I just wasn’t having much success,” Weeden said. “My numbers were average. I was giving up a lot of doubles in the gap. I always knew I wanted to play football if it didn’t work out, as far as my baseball career (goes). After the ’06 season, I had had enough, I decided I wanted to go back and get an education and play college football, and I think I made the right decision.


http://www.orangepower.com/threads/nokblog-brandon-weeden-on-%E2%80%9Cjon-gruden%E2%80%99s-qb-camp%E2%80%9D.142774/


average is horrible?

suuuuurreeee

http://www.youjustpostedalinkthatcontradictedyouropinion.com/payattention/towhat-youare-saying/25%of632is158%of99is156.42-why-read-this-part.2-12-1809-abraham-lincoln/
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Dawgpoun8017


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bungleodeon wrote:
Dawgpoun8017 wrote:
He actually decided to retire from baseball cause of his shoulder
suuuuurreeeee


edit:
Quote:
On the decision to quit baseball and try college football:
I just wasn’t having much success,” Weeden said. “My numbers were average. I was giving up a lot of doubles in the gap. I always knew I wanted to play football if it didn’t work out, as far as my baseball career (goes). After the ’06 season, I had had enough, I decided I wanted to go back and get an education and play college football, and I think I made the right decision.


http://www.orangepower.com/threads/nokblog-brandon-weeden-on-%E2%80%9Cjon-gruden%E2%80%99s-qb-camp%E2%80%9D.142774/



and his numbers were average due to his labrum injury....
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