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2013 NFL Draft Tiers (Pre Combine)

 
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Black Dolphins


Joined: 09 Apr 2006
Posts: 194
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 9:33 pm    Post subject: 2013 NFL Draft Tiers (Pre Combine) Reply with quote

In order to have a better understanding of the draft prospects in the 2013 class, and how they are perceived in value, I took the draft rankings of ten sources, including my own, and averaged them out. After analyzing numerical values, I assigned each prospect to a tier. Every tier is a grouping based on overall talent and ranking; all prospects in the same tier have a similar value, with talent and ranking decreasing as the tier number increases. For example, the prospects in Tier 2 are all considered relatively equal (although they descend in value), but definitely better than those in Tier 3 etc.

I believe this exercise is very useful, as it provides a good understanding of the value of each prospect. The system allows for the grouping of players based on overall talent, and then players in each tier can be ranked based on need and scheme fit. Thus, teams can draft BPA while also filling a need.

The Dolphins have 5 picks in the top 82 (12, 42, 54, 77, and 82). The ranking of some of these players will certainly change after the combine and pro days, but this provides a good idea of who will be available when these selections occur as of now, in addition to what would be necessary if we want to target someone through trade.

The following is a list of the top 94 prospects, separated into proper tiers, with some of my thoughts at the bottom.

Tier 1:
None
*Reserved for elite prospects, such as Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. There is no clear consensus top guy in this draft, thus Im leaving this Tier empty.

Tier 2:
Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
*The only two clear consensus Top 5 prospects in this draft class.

Tier 3:
Bjoern Werner, DE, FSU
Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
Demontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
*With one or two exceptions in various player rankings, all of these guys are seen as Top 10 prospects.

Tier 4:
Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida
Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

Tier 5:
Jonathan Cooper, G, UNC
Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon

Tier 6:
Geno Smith, QB, WVU
Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Manti Teo, ILB, Notre Dame
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
Keenan Allen, WR, California

Tier 7:
Johnathan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU
Kawann Short, DT, Purdue
Johnathan Jenkins, DT, Georgia

Tier 8:
Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU
Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
Matt Elam, S, Florida
Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

Tier 9:
Matt Barkley, QB, USC
DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama
Sly Williams, DT, UNC
Xavier Rhodes, CB, FSU
Alex Okafor, DE, Texas
Tavon Austin, WR, WVU

Tier 10:
Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
Ed Lacy, RB, Alabama

Tier 11:
Eric Reid, S, LSU
Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
Barrett Jones, G, Alabama
Gio Bernard, RB, UNC

Tier 12:
Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
Bob Woods, WR, USC
Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
Mike Glennon, QB, NC State
Margus Hunt, DE, SMU

*There is a big jump between the 49th prospect (Hunt) and the remaining prospects*

Tier 13:
Logan Ryan, CB, Rutgers
Jordan Poyer, CB, Oregon State
David Amerson, CB, NC State
Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor
Khaseem Greene, OLB, Rutgers

Tier 14:
Tank Carradine, DE, FSU
DaRick Rogers, WR, Tennessee Tech
Tony Jefferson, S, Oklahoma
Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse
Dallas Thomas, G, Tennessee
Larry Warford, G, Kentucky

Tier 15:
Oday Aboushi, T, Virginia
Bennie Logan, DT, LSU
Arthur Brown, ILB, Kansas State

*Another big jump here between the 63rd prospect (Brown) and the remaining prospects*

Tier 16:
Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall
Brennan Williams, T, UNC
Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn
Tyler Bray, QB, Tennessee
Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech
Blidi Wreh Wilson, CB, Connecticut
Kyle Long, T, Oregon

Tier 17:
Phillip Thomas, S, Fresno State
Travis Frederick, G, Wisconsin
Justin Pugh, G, Syracuse
EJ Manuel, QB, FSU
Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon State
Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin
Chase Thomas, OLB, Stanford
TJ McDonald, S, USC

Tier 18:
Robert Alford, CB, Southeastern Louisiana
Bacarri Rambo, S, Georgia
Stedman Bailey, WR, WVU

Tier 19:
Jonathan Cyprien, S, FIU
Brandon Jenkins, DE, FSU
Menelik Watson, T, FSU
Kevin Reddick, ILB, UNC
John Simon, DE, Ohio State
Brandon Williams, DT, Southern Missouri Sate
Leveon Bell, RB, Michigan State
Shawn Williams, S, Georgia
Will Davis, CB, Utah State
Stepfan Taylor, RB, Stanford
Joseph Randle, RB, Oklahoma State
Andre Ellington, RB, Clemson

Some thoughts:

*The more quarterbacks taken ahead of our pick at 12, the better. No QB is higher than Tier 6 (Geno Smith), so each taken before our pick allows a much higher rated player to drop, providing us with an additional option. I expect Geno to go top 10, and am really hoping another QB goes before our selection as well.
*For all of those mocking a WR (Patterson or Allen) to us at 12, it just doesnt seem practical. Both are in Tier 6, and are rated around 20th. Unless we trade down or one of the two vaults up after an impressive combine, we would be reaching for a WR. There are plenty of WRs in later tiers, which we could target with one of our second or third choices, giving us much better value, as well as hitting on BPA.
*I would be surprised to see anyone in Tier 2 or 3 dropping to us (8 prospects in total, while we have the 12th pick). Unless we reach, expect us to select someone in Tier 4. We will have at least 2 guys to choose from, with more choices if a QB is taken before our pick.
*We should get great value with the 42nd pick, and a run on QBs at the top of the second round would help even more. A big drop off occurs after the 49th rated prospect, so it may be prudent to move up from 54th and get one of those guys. The next jump is at 64, with both of our 3rd rounder choices coming way after this point.
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WaterBear56


Joined: 26 Jul 2010
Posts: 3313
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 10:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Some thoughts:

*The more quarterbacks taken ahead of our pick at 12, the better. No QB is higher than Tier 6 (Geno Smith), so each taken before our pick allows a much higher rated player to drop, providing us with an additional option. I expect Geno to go top 10, and am really hoping another QB goes before our selection as well.
*For all of those mocking a WR (Patterson or Allen) to us at 12, it just doesnt seem practical. Both are in Tier 6, and are rated around 20th. Unless we trade down or one of the two vaults up after an impressive combine, we would be reaching for a WR. There are plenty of WRs in later tiers, which we could target with one of our second or third choices, giving us much better value, as well as hitting on BPA.
*I would be surprised to see anyone in Tier 2 or 3 dropping to us (8 prospects in total, while we have the 12th pick). Unless we reach, expect us to select someone in Tier 4. We will have at least 2 guys to choose from, with more choices if a QB is taken before our pick.
*We should get great value with the 42nd pick, and a run on QBs at the top of the second round would help even more. A big drop off occurs after the 49th rated prospect, so it may be prudent to move up from 54th and get one of those guys. The next jump is at 64, with both of our 3rd rounder choices coming way after this point.


Nice analysis. I can see us giving up a third and making a jump with a our second 2nd round pick. Could also see us trading down in the 1st if we want to target a receiver.
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