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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
The guy doesn't do much outside of the metrodome. 4.3 guys like percy and peterson look 4.2ish on that surface, just like 4.20 randy looked Usian Bolt like. Even Bernard Berrien seemed like a servicable down field threat when he played there.


His numbers at home and on the road aren't all that different. His YPC is a bit higher at home (12.2 vs 11.4) but that could be due to any number of things or just statistical noise.
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mission27


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 12:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
Being fast doesn't make you a good deep threat. I'm not saying he can't do it, but assuming he can i(or would be decidedly better than Lloyd) is a mistake.


He's fast, he's quick enough to get around defenders at the LOS, he can run routes, and he's not going to drop much. He's small but that's about the only knock against him and he plays a lot bigger than he is. He just has a knack for finding open space and making plays. You can't bully Percy Harvin with a big, physical corner anyway because of what he does in the short passing game.

It's not like the guy has never gone deep in his life, either. He just hasn't been utilized in that role much. Take a look at the first two highlights here. Also 2:05 and 3:35. Though really the whole video is worth a look. You see Harvin in the slot, after the catch, on returns, going deep, running the ball, and jumping over guys to make catches in the back of the endzone. He'd be unstoppable with Brady.
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mission27


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
The guy doesn't do much outside of the metrodome. 4.3 guys like percy and peterson look 4.2ish on that surface, just like 4.20 randy looked Usian Bolt like. Even Bernard Berrien seemed like a servicable down field threat when he played there.


Yeah, Harvin's not as fast as he looks on his home game tape, but neither are the defenders trying to chase him. The turf should basically make every player faster by about the same amount. It's a wash.

My question is... what's wrong with a guy who runs a 4.3?
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mission27 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
Being fast doesn't make you a good deep threat. I'm not saying he can't do it, but assuming he can i(or would be decidedly better than Lloyd) is a mistake.


He's fast, he's quick enough to get around defenders at the LOS, he can run routes, and he's not going to drop much. He's small but that's about the only knock against him and he plays a lot bigger than he is. He just has a knack for finding open space and making plays. You can't bully Percy Harvin with a big, physical corner anyway because of what he does in the short passing game.

It's not like the guy has never gone deep in his life, either. He just hasn't been utilized in that role much. Take a look at the first two highlights here. Also 2:05 and 3:35. Though really the whole video is worth a look. You see Harvin in the slot, after the catch, on returns, going deep, running the ball, and jumping over guys to make catches in the back of the endzone. He'd be unstoppable with Brady.


I don't see him as a big upgrade in the slot over Welker and I'm not at all interested in his ability to return kicks. So the value he has to have to me (if I were GM) would be a significant deep threat ability - which I just don't see when I watch Harvin.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mission27 wrote:
NextBigThing wrote:
The guy doesn't do much outside of the metrodome. 4.3 guys like percy and peterson look 4.2ish on that surface, just like 4.20 randy looked Usian Bolt like. Even Bernard Berrien seemed like a servicable down field threat when he played there.


Yeah, Harvin's not as fast as he looks on his home game tape, but neither are the defenders trying to chase him. The turf should basically make every player faster by about the same amount. It's a wash.

My question is... what's wrong with a guy who runs a 4.3?


He doesn't use it all that much. Marquise Goodwin can run even faster will be there for us in round 3, and wont cost so much that we lose volmer/talib.
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mission27


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 7:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
He doesn't use it all that much.


Mostly because Christian Ponder is his QB, though. I think in a Brady led offense Harvin is a legitimate vertical threat. We saw him make some plays downfield with Favre at the end and Favre at 40 was no Brady at 35. Harvin is so valuable because he can both fill Welker's role and also make plays deep and on the outside. He's a two-for-one. He's versatile, and young, and explosive.

Of course if Belichick thinks Edelman can step up and wants to draft a pure deep threat like Goodwin in the third round and save all the money we'd spend on Welker/Harvin for Talib and Vollmer, that would be great. It's a big risk though. We'd have to be very confident we were brining in the right players.
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TKOhitter8737


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
mission27 wrote:
NextBigThing wrote:
The guy doesn't do much outside of the metrodome. 4.3 guys like percy and peterson look 4.2ish on that surface, just like 4.20 randy looked Usian Bolt like. Even Bernard Berrien seemed like a servicable down field threat when he played there.


Yeah, Harvin's not as fast as he looks on his home game tape, but neither are the defenders trying to chase him. The turf should basically make every player faster by about the same amount. It's a wash.

My question is... what's wrong with a guy who runs a 4.3?


He doesn't use it all that much. Marquise Goodwin can run even faster will be there for us in round 3, and wont cost so much that we lose volmer/talib.


They have'nt devolped a WR since Givens and Branch in 02. I would rather get a guy who has proven he can play in the league. Who was'nt pumped when they drafted Chad Jackson the kid was a fast with great hands how that turn out.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chad looked wasn't that bad until he tore his ACL in 2006. He had a few "would have been a nice catch" plays. But, I think he stays healthy and we never sign Moss, Chad becomes a decent contributor.

But, he tore his ACL twice, we signed the greatest weapon the NFL has ever seen, annnd Chad went nowhere.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TKOhitter8737 wrote:
NextBigThing wrote:
mission27 wrote:
NextBigThing wrote:
The guy doesn't do much outside of the metrodome. 4.3 guys like percy and peterson look 4.2ish on that surface, just like 4.20 randy looked Usian Bolt like. Even Bernard Berrien seemed like a servicable down field threat when he played there.


Yeah, Harvin's not as fast as he looks on his home game tape, but neither are the defenders trying to chase him. The turf should basically make every player faster by about the same amount. It's a wash.

My question is... what's wrong with a guy who runs a 4.3?


He doesn't use it all that much. Marquise Goodwin can run even faster will be there for us in round 3, and wont cost so much that we lose volmer/talib.


They have'nt devolped a WR since Givens and Branch in 02. I would rather get a guy who has proven he can play in the league. Who was'nt pumped when they drafted Chad Jackson the kid was a fast with great hands how that turn out.


Edelman's a WR. A guy they developed from a college QB to a guy they lined up as the #2 WR. I'd say that's a pretty good development. He's not a star, but he was a 7th round pick conversion project who has been taught by the coaching staff how to be a solid contributor at the position.

The "Pats can't draft WR" thing is pretty meaningless when they've invested one high pick (Jackson) in the position since 2005. 3rd rounders like Tate and Price flop all the time and using (low) third rounders as indication that the team is unable to draft WR is totally missing the mark.

How many good DL have the Pats drafted after round 1 in the last 8 years? Deaderick. That's about it. They've whiffed on Hill and Brace - both 2nd rounders (thus higher chance of success than Tate/Price), yet nobody claims the Pats have an inability to draft DL. Why? Because they've hit (hugely) on 1st round picks.

How many good OL have the Pats drafted after round 2 in the last 8 years? Certainly there is a longer list of misses there than at WR.

How many good RB had the Pats drafted under Belichick until Ridley?

How many good LB have the Pats drafted after round 2 under Belichick?

The idea that the Pats can't draft good WR's is based on one guy who blew out his knee and two guys drafted in a part of the draft where success is fairly rare (and TBH, Brandon Tate's career thus far is pretty much what I'd expect from a somewhat successful 3rd round draft pick). I have no problems in saying that I trust the Pats could hit on a 1st or early 2nd round WR.

It's a myth, that's all it is. One which has spread everywhere in the New England media (and they love to repeat it), but a myth nonetheless.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Patriots will be able to draft good wide receivers when they draft a good prospect.

Tate was a kick returner and nothing else in college, Price was a "who da f is that?", and Chad wasn't that good in college, he was a combine freak who was a 2nd round pick.

Williams, Patterson, Hunter, and Hopkins are are 5x as talented/the prospect as all those guys combined.
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mission27


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
Edelman's a WR. A guy they developed from a college QB to a guy they lined up as the #2 WR. I'd say that's a pretty good development. He's not a star, but he was a 7th round pick conversion project who has been taught by the coaching staff how to be a solid contributor at the position.

The "Pats can't draft WR" thing is pretty meaningless when they've invested one high pick (Jackson) in the position since 2005. 3rd rounders like Tate and Price flop all the time and using (low) third rounders as indication that the team is unable to draft WR is totally missing the mark.

How many good DL have the Pats drafted after round 1 in the last 8 years? Deaderick. That's about it. They've whiffed on Hill and Brace - both 2nd rounders (thus higher chance of success than Tate/Price), yet nobody claims the Pats have an inability to draft DL. Why? Because they've hit (hugely) on 1st round picks.

How many good OL have the Pats drafted after round 2 in the last 8 years? Certainly there is a longer list of misses there than at WR.

How many good RB had the Pats drafted under Belichick until Ridley?

How many good LB have the Pats drafted after round 2 under Belichick?

The idea that the Pats can't draft good WR's is based on one guy who blew out his knee and two guys drafted in a part of the draft where success is fairly rare (and TBH, Brandon Tate's career thus far is pretty much what I'd expect from a somewhat successful 3rd round draft pick). I have no problems in saying that I trust the Pats could hit on a 1st or early 2nd round WR.

It's a myth, that's all it is. One which has spread everywhere in the New England media (and they love to repeat it), but a myth nonetheless.


You have to be consistent. You say regarding Harvin that:

mcmurtry86 wrote:
I'm not saying he can't do it, but assuming he can is a mistake.


I think if you look at what Harvin's done, if you watch him play, you can make that assumption. But here? No one is saying the Patriots can't draft a wide receiver. What makes you, I, or any of us believe they can? How can we stake several dimensions of this team's offense on a far-from sure thing?

It's not like the Patriots have an early first round pick or a prospect like AJ Green or Calvin Johnson (or even Percy Harvin) to take with that pick. We aren't talking about sure things. Most likely BB would be taking a shot on a guy in the late second. I don't think that guys like Welker, Edelman, Faulk, and Woodhead - small, quick slot receivers and third down backs - are relevant in this discussion. The Patriots would be trying to hit on a good but not elite prospect and their track-record is short and poor. We'd have to be pretty sure we had it right this time. And it might cost us our only truly valuable pick at 29.

Anyway, it seems like the bulk of your case against Harvin is that spending a second round pick for a marginal upgrade doesn't make much sense. Either the pick is super valuable, in which case it's tough to trade it to get Harvin but the Patriots lack of success in the defensive backfield and at wide receiver is damning. Or the pick really isn't that valuable because a guy you take at 58 or 60 or 88 isn't going to work out more than 20-30% of the time. I think it's some combination of the two. The pick has some value. But given our poor record in drafting the kinds of players we need today it might be worth shipping off.
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mission27


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
Williams, Patterson, Hunter, and Hopkins are are 5x as talented/the prospect as all those guys combined.


I don't doubt that. But Patterson isn't going to be available at 29, Williams probably wont be either, and it wouldn't be shocking to see Hopkins gone too. Hunter's probably gone by the early second. We might only get a shot to draft one of those guys and it would almost certainly cost us our first round pick. If we trade out of the first, maybe we don't get a chance to draft any of them.

Those are all great prospects but we don't know who the Pats will have a chance to draft or who they'll fall in love with. The track record isn't pretty and presumably BB thought Jackson, Tate, and Price were worth the early investment. This is a deep receiving class but that doesn't mean we come out of the first three rounds with the guy we need.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mission27 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
Edelman's a WR. A guy they developed from a college QB to a guy they lined up as the #2 WR. I'd say that's a pretty good development. He's not a star, but he was a 7th round pick conversion project who has been taught by the coaching staff how to be a solid contributor at the position.

The "Pats can't draft WR" thing is pretty meaningless when they've invested one high pick (Jackson) in the position since 2005. 3rd rounders like Tate and Price flop all the time and using (low) third rounders as indication that the team is unable to draft WR is totally missing the mark.

How many good DL have the Pats drafted after round 1 in the last 8 years? Deaderick. That's about it. They've whiffed on Hill and Brace - both 2nd rounders (thus higher chance of success than Tate/Price), yet nobody claims the Pats have an inability to draft DL. Why? Because they've hit (hugely) on 1st round picks.

How many good OL have the Pats drafted after round 2 in the last 8 years? Certainly there is a longer list of misses there than at WR.

How many good RB had the Pats drafted under Belichick until Ridley?

How many good LB have the Pats drafted after round 2 under Belichick?

The idea that the Pats can't draft good WR's is based on one guy who blew out his knee and two guys drafted in a part of the draft where success is fairly rare (and TBH, Brandon Tate's career thus far is pretty much what I'd expect from a somewhat successful 3rd round draft pick). I have no problems in saying that I trust the Pats could hit on a 1st or early 2nd round WR.

It's a myth, that's all it is. One which has spread everywhere in the New England media (and they love to repeat it), but a myth nonetheless.


You have to be consistent. You say regarding Harvin that:

mcmurtry86 wrote:
I'm not saying he can't do it, but assuming he can is a mistake.


I think if you look at what Harvin's done, if you watch him play, you can make that assumption. But here? No one is saying the Patriots can't draft a wide receiver. What makes you, I, or any of us believe they can? How can we stake several dimensions of this team's offense on a far-from sure thing?

It's not like the Patriots have an early first round pick or a prospect like AJ Green or Calvin Johnson (or even Percy Harvin) to take with that pick. We aren't talking about sure things. Most likely BB would be taking a shot on a guy in the late second. I don't think that guys like Welker, Edelman, Faulk, and Woodhead - small, quick slot receivers and third down backs - are relevant in this discussion. The Patriots would be trying to hit on a good but not elite prospect and their track-record is short and poor. We'd have to be pretty sure we had it right this time. And it might cost us our only truly valuable pick at 29.

Anyway, it seems like the bulk of your case against Harvin is that spending a second round pick for a marginal upgrade doesn't make much sense. Either the pick is super valuable, in which case it's tough to trade it to get Harvin but the Patriots lack of success in the defensive backfield and at wide receiver is damning. Or the pick really isn't that valuable because a guy you take at 58 or 60 or 88 isn't going to work out more than 20-30% of the time. I think it's some combination of the two. The pick has some value. But given our poor record in drafting the kinds of players we need today it might be worth shipping off.


It seems you either missed my point about the drafting WR thing entirely or are deliberately ignoring it, so I'm not sure what more I can add to that conversation.

I don't like trading a 2nd round pick for Harvin. I never said I would use that pick on a WR. I agree 100% that 2nd round receivers are risky bets. That has nothing to do with the Pats ability (or lack thereof) of being able to draft a good WR. That's a league wide trend over 30+ years of data points. Wide receivers outside of the 1st round (like most positions, but especially so) are a total crapshoot.

I'm not sure where you got the idea that I would prefer to keep the 2nd rounder and use it on a WR to single-handedly replace Welker. I think that would be an awful idea.

My point with regards to trading a high (and a 2nd round pick, though a 50/50 shot is still a nice pick) for Harvin is that you're giving up a cheap, 4 year cost controlled asset for - what I'm assuming will be - a huge contract for him. There are guys who will hit the market that you can get for similarly huge contracts that don't cost a 2nd round pick. Perhaps there are guys you could get for a 2nd round pick that wouldn't require a huge contract (I have no idea who would be on the trade market, but I assume there are teams shopping WR's).

If I'm the Pats, and I'm going to blow a wad of money on a WR, it's not going to be a guy who will be mostly screens and short passes. They already have something like $15M+ a year tied up in Gronkowski and Hernandez to catch balls near the line of scrimmage and Vereen, Woodhead, Edelman (if those 2 are retained) etc can do that as well. So can a mid-price veteran. Throw in the 2nd round pick - for a team which has a lot of depth pieces to re-sign/replace - and it's a really bad idea.

So to be clear: I don't want Harvin at $10M per year and I don't want him at a 2nd round pick price. Were I running the team, I'd give up a 3rd for him if - and only if - he were willing to play 2013 on his current deal or sign a heavily backloaded extension at a lower AAV than $10M.
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mission27


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I guess I'm just not sure what you're getting at. How do you think the team should address the wide receiver position and how do you think we should use our early draft picks? I'm honestly curious.

I think bringing back Welker is a mistake, basically for the reasons you outlined. He's just another guy who can catch the ball around the line of scrimmage. He's older and inconsistent and in part a product of the system he plays in. I think Harvin's more than that... but we've discussed that at length already.

So I can see basically two possibilities. Either we bring in a guy like Jennings or Harvin to replace Welker and give him big money, we retain Talib, retain Edelman to play Welker's role, bring in a veteran safety, and let go of Vollmer then spend whatever early picks we have remaining on a replacement for Vollmer and possibly another defensive back. Or we do whatever we can to keep Vollmer and Talib and Edelman here and spend our first round pick on a legitimate future #1 receiver and hope it works out.
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jofos


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 12:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mission27 wrote:
I guess I'm just not sure what you're getting at. How do you think the team should address the wide receiver position and how do you think we should use our early draft picks? I'm honestly curious.

I think bringing back Welker is a mistake, basically for the reasons you outlined. He's just another guy who can catch the ball around the line of scrimmage. He's older and inconsistent and in part a product of the system he plays in. I think Harvin's more than that... but we've discussed that at length already.

So I can see basically two possibilities. Either we bring in a guy like Jennings or Harvin to replace Welker and give him big money, we retain Talib, retain Edelman to play Welker's role, bring in a veteran safety, and let go of Vollmer then spend whatever early picks we have remaining on a replacement for Vollmer and possibly another defensive back. Or we do whatever we can to keep Vollmer and Talib and Edelman here and spend our first round pick on a legitimate future #1 receiver and hope it works out.



I don't think anyone is really saying that they don't think Harvin is good, their point is for the price both in draft picks and salary Harvin would not be worth it.
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