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AnAngryAmerican


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:25 pm    Post subject: AAA's Mock Offseason v1.0 Reply with quote

Okay the season is done so it's time for me to make my first mock of the year.

Departures:
CB Tracy Porter - Things haven't worked out here for both sides.
RB Lance Ball - Not really special in any way.
LB Keith Brooking - retires
WR Andre Caldwell - Despite his blazing speed and relatively productive career as a #3/#4 WR, Bubba was active for only 8 games this year and caught just one pass.
CB Tony Carter - Opinion on Carter is divided at Dove Valley and because of that I don't see him coming back.
FB Chris Gronkowski - Hester can play FB when needed and is a better ball-carrier as a RB.
S Jim Leonard - We have better, younger players at S who we keep.
LB Joe Mays - Lost his starting job and we're not going to pay him $4m to play on special teams when we have younger, cheaper, more-athletic players at the position.
RB Knowshon Moreno - Knowshon had a bouce-back year but I have a gut feeling the team really doesn't him to be consistently productive and consistently healthy. He ends up a cap casualty.
DT Kevin Vickerson - He was our best DT in 2013 but after taking a pay-cut last year he will look to cash in this year and thus will price himself higher than Elway wants to spend.
DT Ty Warren - It was a mistake to sign him, won't be one to let him walk.
LB DJ Williams - With an $8m cap number in 2013, DJ will be asked to take a significant pay-cut. He will refuse and Elway will show him the door.
WR Matt Willis - Can't block and made too many mistakes this year.

New Contracts:
DT Justin Bannan - Isn't really a difference-maker but he loves CO and as such will likely be cheap to resign.
OT Ryan Clady - I think Elway and Sullivan get him signed long-term. Franchise tag is the other option but either way our All Pro LT is not going anywhere.
S David Bruton - Re-signed as an ace special teamer and emergency safety.
OT Chris Clark - Good option as a backup OT; knows the offense can play RT or LT in a pinch.
P Britton Colquitt - No need to make a change.
DE Jason Hunter - Better pass rusher than Ayers, better run defender than Doom, JDR loves him and he'll come cheap due to the injury.
C Dan Koppen - Stepped in seamlessly this year and earned a new contract; will compete in camp with Walton.
WR Brandon Stokley - He wants to be back, he will be back. Peyton's safety-valve and a very valuable piece of the offense.
DT Mitch Unrein - Demonstrated ability to play either DT spot, is young and improving and should come relatively cheap. The kind of blue-collar player all great teams have.

Notable Free Agents:
DT Sammie Lee Hill (DET) - Hill brings some size to the front, he's a good anchor DT at 330lbs. He will be a rotational player who will be used primarily in short-yardage and goal line situations, areas where we struggled last year.
WR Courtney Roby (NO) - A career backup who will be the same here but is a shifty slot receiver who provides some insurance for the 37-year old Stokley. Played with Brees and spent a season in Indy (2008) with Peyton so he is used to demanding QBs and offenses based on option routes. Can also contribute on ST.
RB Jalen Parmele (JAX) - If you guys remember I was high on him as a late-round sleeper a few years ago in the draft. He's bounced around but has good size, good speed, good hands and can contribute on ST.
CB Darius Butler (IND) - Butler is the type of player who makes big plays but also gives up big plays. He's young and has been productive and should not cost too much. This is a lot like the Tracy Porter signing last year.

Trades:
-Denver trades their 2013 1st round pick (#28 overall) and a conditional 2014 2nd or 3rd round pick to the New York Jets for CB Darrelle Revis.
Analysis: This might be a pipe dream but Revis is an elite talent in his prime at a key position. He will be expensive but as I said HERE we can structure his contract in a way that it doesn't break our backs vis-a-vis the salary cap. Revis has leverage over the Jets in that they won't be able to afford him next year so they get what they can now and take the picks to try to rebuild and restore their mess of a franchise. It's a risk for a number of reasons, but so was signing Peyton. There is no player can draft at #28 that will make anywhere near as big of an impact as Revis can, he's a game-changer.

2013 NFL Draft:
*Note: overall pick numbers do not factor in compensatory selections in rounds 3-7.
1 (#28 overall): Traded to NYJ for CB Darrelle Revis
2 (#58 overall): Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina - He might not last this far but the logjam at DT should allow a good player or two to slip to the late 2nd. Williams has the size and strength to anchor in the run game but also has good explosion off the ball to create pressure up the middle. He also brings the versatility that Elway, Fox and JDR look for in defensive lineman.
3 (#90 overall): Shayne Skov, MLB, Stanford - Elway goes to the Cardinal well here to fill our gaping hole at Mike LB. Skov has good instincts and intelligence, he plays with a fiery demeanor and high-motor that Fox and JDR love. He is vocal and can grow into a leadership role on the defense, something important for a MLB. He isn't the most dynamic athlete but makes up for it with his intangibles.
4 (#122 overall): Stephan Taylor, RB, Stanford - Taylor, while not a dynamic back, is one of the most well-rounded RBs in this year's class. He has the size and strength to run between the tackles, demonstrates good vision and cutback ability, has good hands as a receiver out of the backfield, is a top-notch blocker in pass protection and has experience in a pro style offense. His well-rounded game reminds me a lot of McGahee and he can be an every-down back in the NFL.
5 (#154 overall): Connor Vernon, WR, Duke - If we've learned anything the last two years it's that Elway looks for productive players in the middle and late rounds; and Vernon is exactly that with 70+ catches and 900+ yards in each of the last three seasons against solid competition in the ACC. Despite lacking prototypical size and speed, he runs excellent routes, has very good hands and knows how to get open. In that regard he is very similar to the two preeminent slot receivers of the last decade - Brandon Stokley and Wes Welker.
6 (#186 overall): Traded to Philadelphia for DT Brodrick Bunkley.
7 (#218 overall): Joe Caprioglio, OT/OG, Colorado State - Caprioglio has NFL size and strength, a good football IQ and has a reputation as a hard-worker. However, he lacks polish and needs some work on the technical aspects of the game making him an intriguing developmental prospect who just needs to be coached-up. He has played RT, LT and RG so he has demonstrated versatility.

53 Man Roster:
Free Agent/Trade
Draft Pick
CSU Ram
Offense (26):
QB: Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Caleb Hanie
RB: Willis McGahee, Stephan Taylor, Ronnie Hillman, Jalen Parmele
WR1: DeMaryius Thomas, Courtney Roby
WR2: Eric Decker, Trindon Holliday
Slot WR: Brandon Stokley, Conner Vernon
TE: Joel Dreessen, Jacob Tamme, Virgil Green, Julius Thomas
LT: Ryan Clady, Chris Clark
LG: Zane Beadles
C: Dan Koppen, JD Walton
RG: Chris Kuper, Manny Ramirez
RT: Orlando Franklin, Joe Caprioglio
Defense (24):
RE: Elvis Dumervil, Jason Hunter
DT: Sylvester Williams, Mitch Unrein
NT: Justin Bannan, Sammie Lee Hill
LE: Derek Wolfe, Robert Ayers, Malik Jackson
WLB: Wesley Woodyard, Danny Trevethan
MLB: Shayne Skov, Stephen Johnson
SLB: Von Miller, Nate Irving
CB1: Darrelle Revis, Omar Bolden
CB2: Champ Bailey, Darius Butler
Nickel CB: Chris Harris
SS: Mike Adams, Quinton Carter
FS: Rahim Moore, David Bruton
Specialists (3):
K: Matt Prater
P: Britton Colquitt
LS: Aaron Brewer
PR/KR: Trindon Holliday
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Reggie Nelson#1


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:44 pm    Post subject: Re: AAA's Mock Offseason v1.0 Reply with quote

AnAngryAmerican wrote:

RB Knowshon Moreno - Knowshon had a bouce-back year but I have a gut feeling the team really doesn't him to be consistently productive and consistently healthy. He ends up a cap casualty.

3 (#90 overall): Shayne Skov, MLB, Stanford - Elway goes to the Cardinal well here to fill our gaping hole at Mike LB. Skov has good instincts and intelligence, he plays with a fiery demeanor and high-motor that Fox and JDR love. He is vocal and can grow into a leadership role on the defense, something important for a MLB. He isn't the most dynamic athlete but makes up for it with his intangibles.


#1 Knowshon Moreno salary is only $1.7 million. I don't see a need to cut him.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5163/knowshon-moreno

#2 Shayne Skov is returning to Stanford

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1500747-shayne-skovs-return-is-key-for-stanfords-championship-run

#3 I like it a lot! I love getting Revis and Stephan Taylor.
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champ+jay+al=SB


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would love this for the most part. I would still be worried about our MLB spot, but I am on board with the Revis trade. Like what you did with the DT spot too even though I am hoping we keep Vick. I'd be sad to see Carter go if we didn't get Revis in this situation.
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BroncsDominate


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really like this mock. Skov could be the answer at MLB and Taylor is an immediate upgrade over Moreno/Ball. This is getting picky but I think DJ restructures if asked. Big Vick might come cheaper than we all think. I think these guys take a slight discount because they know we will be Super Bowl contenders next year. While I love Koppen, I think he will get a starting gig somewhere and be too expensive to keep (plus I'm pretty sure he already has a ring?) Also, if we do make a trade for Revis, I think they will keep Carter instead of bring in a FA like Butler.

One other thing I havent seen anyone discuss on their mocks (I dont think so anyway), is that the Denver Post has said that we might look at moving Franklin inside to play G. If this happens, what will be the team's strategy to replace him at Tackle? Do you think we might bring in a FA, use second round draft pick, or insert Chris Clark? Maybe a combination of the three?
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skov isn't turning pro this year. He has on more year of eligibility left at Standford.

The Broncos aren't going to let Carter go. As an exclusive rights free agent he will only cost the Broncos $555,000 this season. A bargain if you ask me. No matter what the opinion may be long term, you don't let a guy with as much talent as Carter get away when he can come tha cheaply.

I also see no point in cutting Bubba Caldwell. He comes in so cheaply that it makes sense to let him compete in camp. The same can be said for Moreno, there isn't much cost associated and therfore no reason not to let these players come to camp.

I hate the Revis trade and don't think it will happen. No way do you give up a 1st round pick for a guy coming off of ACL surgery. No matter the advancements in surgical techniques and rehabilitation of ACL injuries. I also don't like the money this guy commands.

I like the WR from Duke and Williams has great potential in a Del Rio defense. Stepfan Taylor is a good value in the fourth as well.

One other cocern I would have is no attention paid to upgrading the offensive line.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:03 pm    Post subject: Re: AAA's Mock Offseason v1.0 Reply with quote

Reggie Nelson#1 wrote:
#1 Knowshon Moreno salary is only $1.7 million. I don't see a need to cut him.

#2 Shayne Skov is returning to Stanford

That sucks about Skov returning to Stanford. After Minter, who can only get at #28 (if he lasts that far) Skov is one of my favorite mid-round MLB prospects. And I did not hear that he was returning so thanks for the heads up.

Call it a gut feeling but I don't think the staff trusts Moreno. He started when McGahee got hurt because he was the only back left on the roster that can run, catch and block. Again, we could very well keep him but I think that if an option like Taylor is available I think Knowshon ends up the odd man out. True $1.7m is not a big cap number but it is a savings that can be used, in this mock at least, to clear room for guys rookies, free agents and Revis.

champ+jay+al=SB wrote:
I'd be sad to see Carter go if we didn't get Revis in this situation.

BroncsDominate wrote:
Also, if we do make a trade for Revis, I think they will keep Carter instead of bring in a FA like Butler.

My source in Dove Valley told me that opinions are mixed on Tony Carter. Some coaches think he plays lazy and doesn't have enough between the ears. In fact, one coach wishes they would have kept Florence instead of Carter. Again this doesn't mean he's going to go but I think it's a very real possibility.

BroncsDominate wrote:
One other thing I havent seen anyone discuss on their mocks (I dont think so anyway), is that the Denver Post has said that we might look at moving Franklin inside to play G. If this happens, what will be the team's strategy to replace him at Tackle? Do you think we might bring in a FA, use second round draft pick, or insert Chris Clark? Maybe a combination of the three?

I think they're playing with the idea only in the event that an OT they really like who can start right away falls to either to #28 or #58. As far as the OL goes I wouldn't be surprise to see a new starter brought in, either at OG or RT, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see us stick with the same starting lineup we had the last two years.
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AnAngryAmerican


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Winder23 wrote:
I also see no point in cutting Bubba Caldwell. He comes in so cheaply that it makes sense to let him compete in camp. The same can be said for Moreno, there isn't much cost associated and therfore no reason not to let these players come to camp.

I think he will come to camp and compete for a spot. But in this mock he's being cut when we go from 90 to 53. He's being released in March, he's being released in August.

Winder23 wrote:
I hate the Revis trade and don't think it will happen. No way do you give up a 1st round pick for a guy coming off of ACL surgery. No matter the advancements in surgical techniques and rehabilitation of ACL injuries. I also don't like the money this guy commands.

Opinion on a potential Revis trade is and will be mixed. I was initially skeptical but I've warmed to the idea a lot. Plus I wanted to do something a little different. I think it's a real possibility we make a trade for him. Again, he's an elite player in his prime and plays a position which Elway has frequently mentioned as critical. With two elite CBs, a very good nickel CB and our pass rush (which should improve as Von and Wolfe continue to grow, we get Hunter back and we add another piece or two in the draft) it will be almost impossible to pass against us next year.

Winder23 wrote:
One other cocern I would have is no attention paid to upgrading the offensive line.

I'm not sure the OL needs upgrading. We gave up only 22 sacks this year and I think we have bigger needs elsewhere. As I said above I think they only make a change if an blue chip OL prospect falls to us. Plus I only had 5 draft picks and limited free agent money to play with in this mock because of the Revis trade.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:23 pm    Post subject: Re: AAA's Mock Offseason v1.0 Reply with quote

AnAngryAmerican wrote:

champ+jay+al=SB wrote:
I'd be sad to see Carter go if we didn't get Revis in this situation.

BroncsDominate wrote:
Also, if we do make a trade for Revis, I think they will keep Carter instead of bring in a FA like Butler.

My source in Dove Valley told me that opinions are mixed on Tony Carter. Some coaches think he plays lazy and doesn't have enough between the ears. In fact, one coach wishes they would have kept Florence instead of Carter. Again this doesn't mean he's going to go but I think it's a very real possibility.


One has to question that coach's sanity then
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I also forgot to mention that I really like Hill. I hope for and expect the Broncos to pursue him next month. We have seen alot of he and Knighton in our mocks on the forum, so one would expect either to be considered. The Broncos have solace knowing that they have Bannan in their back pocket. At the very worst the Broncos resign Bannan and draft behind him.

I also am anxious to see what role Wolfe plays next year. I think he is well suited as an inside player on nickle formations, but I didn't see many plays made as a LE in the base defense. What they do there will greatly impact there moves for the DT position in free agency and the draft.
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elliot878


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tony Carter departing? He's a very easy re-sign as an exclusive rights free agent - he has no negotiating rights, and will come extremely cheap as an undrafted free agent with two years experience. Also, how do you know Dove Valley is divided on him? It would seem that the people who know football definitely have his back after cutting the much safer Drayton Florence in favor of him. I'm a UConn fan and I'd be much more comfortable keeping Tony Carter than bringing in Darius Butler.

I also think that they likely let Moreno play out his contract, after that, no loyalty - and you're right, there shouldn't be any.

As the draft goes. I like the Revis trade. One of the only possible ways we spin the 28 pick into an elite player that our defense needs is by trading for Revis, or by trading up in the draft. You used it to get an elite player, and I like that.

Don't think Sly Williams falls that far. Daniel Jeremiah had us taking him 28th in his latest mock. I'm also not much a fan of UNC players who haven't produced. We're starting to see that unbelievable recruiting class from a few years back declaring over the last year or two, and they've done little in the NFL, after not amounting to anything at UNC. I know Williams transferred in, and did put up solid numbers this year, but I'm just wary of the prospects coming out of North Carolina, it's a personal bias.

Skov is back to school

Stepfan Taylor is a back I like. He's good at most everything, not elite at anything. My one complaint is that this is just not a good running back class at all. I'm not sure I'm comfortable with using an early or mid-round draft pick on a running back from this class. If we do take a running back, I hope we don't invest anything higher than a 6th or 7th round pick in one from this class. This years class is the opposite of last years. Last year I told friends that in a couple years the 2012 running backs class would make up the majority of the 1st round picks in fantasy drafts. It was obvious to see. The top end was strong and the middle had guys who could do a lot of things and break out - will admit I didn't know a thing about Alfred Morris though. 2013 there's just not a lot to speak of at the RB position though, and I think drafts like that you're really at risk in the mid rounds as average guys get taken a bit too early.

Like the Connor Vernon pick. I've heard good things about this guy.

I know why you picked Joe Caprioglio, and from what you've written, I can't say I don't like it.

Even with all my complaining, I still like the make-up of the roster. Really I think the only spot that needs to be addressed in your lineup is the interior of the offensive line. Oh, and you have Koppen starting over Walton, which I doubt will happen. Even Tom Nalen came out and said recently that the JD Walton playing before the injury was a whole different Walton than his previous two years. He should re-take that job from Koppen - but I'm glad you have Koppen coming back.

Overall good job and a good read.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've heard a lot of good things about Vernon. I was planning on watching some tape on him.

Darius Butler could become a good CB. He was fantastic as a rookie looked awful as a sophomore and seemed to lose his confidence and needed change of scenery and looked better in Indy. I dont think he'd leave Indy w/ the logjam of talent in Denver at DB(Carter, Bolden Champ, Harris, and Revis). Though you think Carter is leaving as a ERFA and I don't think Denver would not offer him anything. Unless he did something that means he wouldn't even be wanted in camp?

I'd also cut Hanie. IMO Brock will be the better Qb and really you only need 2 on the active roster and have 1 QB on the PS. I dont think there will be much Osweiler can benefit from Hanie to warrant a roster spot.

As for Koppen I doubt he'd beat out Walton. For previous reasons said in other threads(Declining athleticall, Walton is stronger and quicker, and I believe Walton is a smart underrated C).
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't complain of this happened, but only because Williams would have fallen to us in the 2nd.

It is no secret that I haven't been a proponent of trading for Revis. Mainly because I have issues with giving up the draft picks for a guy that is coming off a major injury, and having to pay him. Getting Williams however cushions the blow of the draft pick compensation, so it makes it much more palatable. If the team can't land similar value with its 2nd round pick, I don't like the Revis trade.

I do really like the FA cuts and acquisitions, with the exception of Parmalee. Nothing more than a diff of opinion though. I was never as high on him as others.

I am one of the few who think that Koppen won't be here next year. I think somebody gives him a 2-3 year contract to be a starter. Personally, I would rather keep him over Walton, but I don't think it happens unless Walton is a ways away from returning.

Would love to keep Vickerson, but I just don't see it happening. I think the FO will look at the depth in the draft at the DT position, and want to spend their money elsewhere.

Roby is a very underatted player that would probably have more impact on ST, but could fit a nice role on offense.

Overall I give it a B-. If Skov were coming out I would give it an B+, but without knowing what your intentions are with the MLB position, I give it the B-.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not bad overall. Like some have said, I can't imagine we dump Carter only because he comes so cheap. He performed well for a good chunk of the year so I think he'll be back.

Moreno will probably stay because his salary is palatable. He's gone after that though.

I don't mind the Revis trade, I'm all on board for it.

If Sylvester Williams lasts that long I'd go bananas, so I like that. I also really like Stepfan Taylor.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i like it AAA, im on board with revis, and if u say u dont wanna give picks for best cb in league, even coming off injury,with champ and harris, and think bolden will come around, but hope to keep carter..
i agree hanie should go and have 2 QB only.
i like the DT, but have a good feeling about siliga...
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

elliot878 wrote:
Tony Carter departing? how do you know Dove Valley is divided on him?

I heard it from a source inside Dove Valley who told me I can share the information wherever I please. Said source didn't say, "he's not going to be resigned" he told me what I said above. Thus I think it's possible, not probable but possible, that he doesn't come back.

elliot878 wrote:
I also think that they likely let Moreno play out his contract, after that, no loyalty - and you're right, there shouldn't be any.

Well in this mock I have us signing another back who can run, catch, block and play on special teams (Parmele) and then drafting another one (Taylor) who can do the same. Both combined would cost less than Moreno's $3.287m cap hit, and by a nice margin at that. Thus why not drop Knowshon and get two-for-one and save money in the process.

Reggie Nelson#1 wrote:
#1 Knowshon Moreno salary is only $1.7 million. I don't see a need to cut him.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5163/knowshon-moreno

BTW, what I said in response to your post was wrong according to my info. According to THIS, Knowshon's cap hit is not $1.7m but rather $3.287m. That makes him far more expendable.

elliot878 wrote:
Don't think Sly Williams falls that far. Daniel Jeremiah had us taking him 28th in his latest mock. I'm also not much a fan of UNC players who haven't produced. We're starting to see that unbelievable recruiting class from a few years back declaring over the last year or two, and they've done little in the NFL, after not amounting to anything at UNC. I know Williams transferred in, and did put up solid numbers this year, but I'm just wary of the prospects coming out of North Carolina, it's a personal bias.

I'm not sure he will fall that far but I believe a quality DT will; there's just too much talent at that position for there not to be one to fall to the late 2nd/early 3rd. Look what happened with RBs last year. As far as his NC roots in and of itself, you make a valid point.

elliot878 wrote:
Oh, and you have Koppen starting over Walton, which I doubt will happen. Even Tom Nalen came out and said recently that the JD Walton playing before the injury was a whole different Walton than his previous two years. He should re-take that job from Koppen - but I'm glad you have Koppen coming back.

Yeah I heard when Nalen said that too. My calculus was actually pretty simple. I'm not sure they know what they're going to get from Walton when he returns, some guys don't recover from injuries as well as others. Walton's progress is something that will never make it outside the walls of Dove Valley so, based on that, I have to assume they will hedge their bets and make sure they have at least one starting-caliber center on the roster. However, the fact that they drafted Blake and signed Koppen before Walton got hurt last year says at least something about how they view Walton long-term.

Donut wrote:
I'd also cut Hanie. IMO Brock will be the better Qb and really you only need 2 on the active roster and have 1 QB on the PS. I dont think there will be much Osweiler can benefit from Hanie to warrant a roster spot.

With the roster rules the way they are there's no penalty for having 3 QBs as the emergency QB doesn't count towards the 45 (essentially 46) man gameday roster. In an offense like ours it's important to make sure the QBs are all on the same page. Thus having 3 QBs who've been on the same team and working with the same playbook is important should QB #1 get hurt.
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