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CW21's Packers Mock Draft v2013.03

 
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 5:09 pm    Post subject: CW21's Packers Mock Draft v2013.03 Reply with quote

Scenario
~The Packers are awarded the 26th pick in each round of the 2013 NFL Draft.
~Packers are awarded a 2013 4th Round Compensatory pick for losing Matt Flynn and another 4th Round Compensatory pick for losing Scott Wells.
~The Packers start off with $6,802,685 in cap space, along with the $7,000,000 million turnover. For the sake of realism, I'm slotting $5,000,000 for carryover to next year. That means the Packers have $8,802,685 in "effective" cap space.


Free Agency

Re-Sign

Slap 1st Round Tender on Sam Shields (-$2,611,000)
Sam Shields had a big year, and if the Packers don't put the appropriate tender on him some team might be willing to give up a pick in order to sign our young budding star. A second round tender will make teams think about giving up a second round pick since he's better than any corner that late in the draft. If a team is bold enough to give up a first round pick for him, then so be it.

Slap 2nd Round Tender on Evan Dietrich-Smith (-$1,835,000)
After replacing Jeff Saturday in the starting lineup, Evan Dietrich-Smith effectively took the center job for 2013 barring a surprising signing. The Packers could just put the right of first refusal tender on him if they want to save money, but I think they'd rather go into the draft and FA without a major hole at center and have to overpay for a veteran center like Dan Koppen.

Slap RoFR Tender on Tom Crabtree (-$1,200,000)
This might seem like an unnecessary expense, but Tom Crabtree has a very defined role on this team as the primary blocking tight end as well as a core special teams player. With the unknown regarding Andrew Quarless's knee and D.J. Williams' vanishing act in the regular season, we need some consistency behind Jermichael Finley.

New Cap Space: $3,156,685


Restructures

Restructure Charles Woodson 2013 salary/roster bonus into SB (+5,225,000)
I've got the feeling that Charles Woodson wants to remain in Green Bay for the two year's of his contract, but he knows that with his diminishing role he'll need to rework his deal. He agree to turn his salary and roster bonus into a signing bonus in order to low his cap number.

Restructure Aaron Rodgers 2013 salary/roster bonus into a SB (+5,125,000)
Aaron's a team first player, so if Ted approached him asking him to turn his salary and roster bonus into a signing bonus to help alleviate cap issues you'd have to imagine that he's be receptive. He doesn't lose any money this year, but it makes his cap number jump up to almost 17 million next year effectively forcing Ted to extend him before the 2014 cap number hits.

New Cap Space: $13,381,685


Free Agents Signed

Sign RB Steven Jackson to a two year, 8 million deal
2013/2014 Salary: 2 million, Signing Bonus: 1 million; 2013 UTBE Incentives: 1 million; 2014 Roster Bonus: 2 million

Ted usually isn't very active in free agency; however, I do see Steven Jackson as one potential free agent that could interest Ted Thompson. Steven Jackson has been one of the best, and most underappreciated backs, in the NFL the last several years. Now 29 years of age, he's likely looking for a chance to win a ring and the Packers are one of the possible destinations that have a significant need at running back. He signs a below-market deal to play in Green Bay. If the Packers miss out on Steven Jackson, I don't believe they'll be active in free agency.

New Cap Space: $10,381,685


2013 NFL Draft

With the 26th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Trevardo Williams, Outside Linebacker out of UConn.

Cap Hit: $2,051,000

I'm probably significantly higher on Trevardo Williams than most casual fans, but that's mainly because I'm looking a year after the draft. I think that a year in an NFL S&C and put him with the right coaching staff (Kevin Greene) and you're going to get a perennial double-digit sack artist. That might seem like a stretch given that he weighed in at the Senior Bowl at 235, but if he can put on another 10-15 pounds I believe he can be a three down rush linebacker in a 34 defense. At UConn, he lined up in several different positions including 43 DE, 34 OLB, and 43 OLB, so he's got schematic versatility. This past season he posted a 13.5 TFL and 11.5 sack season and the season before he had 15 TFL and 12.5 sacks. For as little as he is, he's has surprising amount of pop in his hands. The idea of having a three-headed pass rush is quite appealing and could help keep Clay and Nick Perry fresh.


After seeing a few players left that he was considering taking at 26, he calls Tennessee, Miami, and Tampa Bay guaging their interest in moving down from their second round pick. Finally a deal is struck between Green Bay and Tampa Bay.
Packers Get: 2nd Round Pick (#44, 480)
6th Round Pick (#173, 22.2)
2014 5th Round Pick

Buccaneers Get: 2nd Round Pick (#57, 330)
3rd Round Pick (#90, 140)
4th Round Pick (#121, 52)
TE D.J. Williams



With the 44th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Tyler Eifert, Tight End out of Notre Dame.

Cap Hit: 1,227,000

Jermichael Finley is essentially on two, one year deals and I think that if he doesn't have a monster year in 2013 that he's most likely going to be looking for work elsewhere. Ted always seem to be looking a year in advance, and to help protect himself he trades up and drafts Tyler Eifert. I think Mac would love to implement two tight ends into his offense, but no tight end has really emerged to use along with Jermichael Finley. The Packers could get quite creative with a two WR, two TE sets on the field with Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson on the field along with Finley and Jones. Tyler Eifert certainly isn't the blue chip tight end prospect, but he's a heck of a receiver and should be a solid pro for several years and should be able to replace Finley's production should Ted opt to let Jermichael go.


With the 4th Round Compensatory pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Tavarres King, Wide Receiver out of Georgia.

Cap Hit: $600,000

I was high on Tavarres King before the strong showing at the Senior Bowl, where showed strong route running. He's a bigger bodied receiver with strong hands, which is what we need to add to our receiving corps. I believe within a year or two, he'll completely replace the production of James Jones and develop into a very good #3 WR.


With the 4th Round Compensatory pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Kevin Riddick, Inside Linebacker out of North Carolina.

Cap Hit: $600,000

Again, I LOVE the fit of Kevin Riddick in our defense and on our team. He's a great pass rusher from the ILB spot, and he's not afraid to stick his nose up in run support. He's not the most instinctive linebacker, but he tries hard and has extra value as a special teams player. Outside of Alec Ogletree, I'm not sure there is an inside linebacker I like for our defense as much as Kevin Riddick.


With the 154th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select.Terry Hawthorne, Cornerback out of Illinois.

Cap Hit: $581,000

Another player I'm particularly high on in the later rounds, Terry Hawthorne has the size/weight requirements that Ted looks for in his cornerbacks. He's not a particularly flashy cornerback, but he'll get the job done. And while I'm sure most wouldn't pencil down CB as a need, Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams likely won't be Packers for much longer as they get up in age and replaced by the younger cornerbacks that the team has developed. Hawthorne adds some more depth to our secondary.


With the 173rd pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Kemal Ishmael, Safety out of UCF.

Cap Hit: $450,000

I wanted to add some new names to my mock, but I refuse to take out Kemal Ishmael. Probably one of the best pure tacklers in the draft, and just an all-around quality safety prospect. He doesn't get the publicity he deserves because he plays at Central Florida, but he's put up at least 70 tackles in all four years at UCF including 124 this year which put him as the 10th leading active tackler. While Jonathan Cyprien is getting all the attention, Ishmael is going under the radar.


With the 185th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Joe Vellano, Defensive End out of Maryland.

Cap Hit: $450,000

The Packers need to add more depth to their defensive line with Jerel Worthy expected to miss the start of next year. Joe Vellano is quietly going under the radar, and I believe he could be a key backup on a 34 team.


With the 218th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Jeff Baca, Offensive Guard/Center out of UCLA.

Cap Hit: $450,000

The Packers need to add more depth on their interior offensive line. Enter Jeff Baca who can play both guard and some center.


Total Draft Hits: $6,749,500
New Cap Space: $3,632,185


Post-Draft Transactions

Extend Clay Matthews for 6 years, 69.3 million



2013-14 Green Bay Packers
QB: Aaron Rodgers / B.J. Coleman
FB: John Kuhn
RB: Steven Jackson / James Starks / DaJuan Harris / Alex Green
WR: Randall Cobb / Jarrett Boykin / Tavarres King
WR: Jordy Nelson / James Jones
TE: Jermichael Finley / Tyler Eifert / Andrew Quarless / Tom Crabtree / Ryan Taylor
LT: Marshall Newhouse / Derek Sherrod
LG: T.J. Lang / Greg Van Roten
C: Evan Dietrich-Smith / Jeff Baca
RG: Josh Sitton / Jeff Baca
RT: Bryan Bulaga / Don Barclay [26]

LDE: Ryan Pickett / Mike Daniels / Joe Vellano
NT: B.J. Raji / Ryan Pickett
RDE: C.J. Wilson / Mike Neal / Jerel Worthy (PUP)
LOLB: Nick Perry / Trevardo Williams
WILB: Desmond Bishop / D.J. Smith
SILB: A.J. Hawk / Kevin Riddick
ROLB: Clay Matthews / Dezman Moses
LCB: Tramon Williams / Casey Heyward / Davon House
RCB: Sam Shields / Charles Woodson / Terry Hawthorne
FS: Morgan Burnett / Jarrett Bush
SS: Jerron McMillian / Kemal Ishmael [24]

K: Mason Crosby
P: Tim Masthay
LS: Brett Goode [3]
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PackFan4Life


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 5:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You must hate Terrell Manning. Laughing
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CornOnDaCobb


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I dont like, we dont improve in the trenches at all
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justo


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting take on Trevardo Williams

FWIW here are some plays he makes

@ Louisville
2 sacks in a row at 2:15
Almost another sack at 3:50
TFL at 4:35
Hurry at 5:10
Amazing goal line outside containment at 6:22
vs NC State
TFL at 0:10
Hurry at 1:30
Maybe sack? at 3:10
Sack fumble at 3:52
Williams almost at 4:20
Sack at 5:00

I think he's a reach. TBH he's probably going around where we are picking in the 2nd IMO. I don't complain about any of the other picks. Would love Eifert there. I see why you wanted the Hawthorne and Vellano videos now Wink

EDIT: If anyone has DVR'd senior bowl practices you need to see King in the redzone drill. Had Robert Lester every single time. Made the dude look like he's never covered anyone before.
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HyponGrey


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 5:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vellano was a pet pick of mine a few months ago, glad to see somebody else grab him too!

Really like this mock, though as you said, you're a bit higher on Williams lol
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packattack86


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 6:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think Williams is a 1st rd pick, plus we just spent a 1st on Nick Perry so why would we spend one on another guy to be a backup? I'd rather go DL or OL there.
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

packattack86 wrote:
I don't think Williams is a 1st rd pick, plus we just spent a 1st on Nick Perry so why would we spend one on another guy to be a backup? I'd rather go DL or OL there.


Outside of maybe Sharrif Floyd, there aren't an impact defensive lineman. Both Star and Sheldon Richardson should be long off the board by the time the Packers pick. As far as offensive lineman, I anticipate three (Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, and Lane Johnson) to be off the board in the top 20 picks. As far as interior OL, Chance Warmack, Jonathan Cooper, and Barrett Jones are the only ones I'm remotely comfortable taking at 26. I think Warmack and Cooper will be off the board at 26. So is Barrett Jones clearly better than Trevardo Williams? I don't think so. But the issue still lies that I don't think Jones will be anything more than a pretty good pro. I think Trevardo Williams can be a stud.

And nothing wrong with too many pass rushers. Look at what the Giants have done in the past, and the Texans have emulated. I'd rather have too many pass rushers than not enough.
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 7:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CornOnDaCobb wrote:
I dont like, we dont improve in the trenches at all


LIS to packattack86, I don't see lineman falling our way unless we trade up. Jonathan Cooper and Sharrif Floyd are the only two lineman I'm really comfortable taking with our first round pick barring a trade.
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blankman0021


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CWood21 wrote:
CornOnDaCobb wrote:
I dont like, we dont improve in the trenches at all


LIS to packattack86, I don't see lineman falling our way unless we trade up. Jonathan Cooper and Sharrif Floyd are the only two lineman I'm really comfortable taking with our first round pick barring a trade.


I agree that we could improve the trenches more. However, I really like this mock.

I DO think we need to improve the pass rush. And frankly, we need to make sure that if Clay or Perry go down we can still get to the QB. Spending a pick fairly high at OLB is not a concern to me.

I DO think TT will spend a pick in the first 4 rounds at TE. I like the trade up. TT has the MO of covering his butt a year before he needs to. TE is one of those positions unless he really likes Q, Williams, etc. I agree that Williams is expendable. Either that kid has a STEEP learning curve or he doesn't have the skills to play at this level. There is no excuse for him being inactive as many games as he has thus far. Cut the dead weight and move on.

Only beef with this mock is that DL is addressed as late as it is. (Then again, with how the mock flowed, I'm not sure I touch it until then anyways...) Don't know much about Vellano, but we could really use a blue-chip prospect at DE right now. In this mock, here's to hoping the Neal steps it up big.
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CornOnDaCobb


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CWood21 wrote:
CornOnDaCobb wrote:
I dont like, we dont improve in the trenches at all


LIS to packattack86, I don't see lineman falling our way unless we trade up. Jonathan Cooper and Sharrif Floyd are the only two lineman I'm really comfortable taking with our first round pick barring a trade.


Yea, I would really like us to take Floyd, IF he makes it to 26. Fact is were pretty good at skill positions save running back and were getting 2 starters back at linebacker so I'd like to really get pass protection for Rodgers or improve our rush defense.
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incognito_man


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 8:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

one small comment:

If you intend to do an accurate cap representation, I would be shocked if Shields plays under his one year tender. One should incorporate an appropriate contract for him IMO.

Prolly in the $5-6million/year range.
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NCPackFan


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CWood21 wrote:
And nothing wrong with too many pass rushers. Look at what the Giants have done in the past, and the Texans have emulated. I'd rather have too many pass rushers than not enough.


That's what I've been harping on for awhile now though not exactly as of late. We really do need to be stocking up on pass-rushers but I think Williams is very early here. I say switch the Eifert and Williams picks, eliminate the trade, and use a couple of our non-comp picks to move up and get Jamar Taylor or get DJ Swearinger with our 3rd.


The rest of the picks are great IMO. Hawthorne might move up the boards but I don't mind picking two CB's in this draft THAT CAN TACKLE... The Tavarres King pick should be a mainstay in any Packer mock at this time. The restructuring deals sound pretty reasonable to me as well but I think we ultimately cut Woodson if we can replace him in the draft. I'd hate to do it, but I think we gotta bite the bullet here.
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Hinkle


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CornOnDaCobb wrote:
I dont like, we dont improve in the trenches at all
. I agree we need help on the line on offense and defense. We drafted an OLB with our first pick last year drafting Williams here what does that say to Nick Perry? We needed to address a center earlier than that and our defensive line. Would like to go wide receiver earlier to cause that's TT like .
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JBURGE25


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for taking Ishmael, I will look into him.

Not a big fan of the trade, but if we could get Riddick in the 4th that would make up for it.

Also not a big fan of King, but w.e

I have seen quite a bit about Trevardo, and I like him a lot. I just don't like OLB in the 1st round 2 years in a row
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