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DrawABlank


Joined: 27 Dec 2009
Posts: 2826
Location: London, UK
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Position Analysis: Offensive Line


Previous Analysis
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends



All Teams - Free Agents and Depth Charts (links)
http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchartpos/OT
http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchartpos/OG
http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchartpos/OC

http://www.footballsfuture.com/2013/fa/ol.html


2012 Season Review
After being the most maligned unit on the team following the 2011 playoff defeat to the Giants, the offensive line improved significantly in 2012.

Pat Hill was brought in as the new OL coach, and transitioned the unit from a pure power team, often running out of 22 personnel and heavy sets, into a more versatile unit – we saw a number of tosses, sweeps, zone stretches, counters etc., especially in the second half of the year. How much of this was due to our “traditional” running game struggling is up for debate, but we saw some progress as a unit.

The pass blocking was also upgraded. While some of this was due to schematic considerations – we rarely used 7 step drops, and most route combinations had a early option for Matt to go to – we still finished 8th in adjusted sack rate despite Ryan occasionally taking unnecessary ones (e.g. CAR Home).

In terms of personnel, Sam Baker had his best year as a Falcon – keeping the level of play he exhibited early in his rookie year going over the full year. He’s never going to be Joe Thomas, but he played well against some good pass rushes – only Charles Johnson really beat him consistently. He was also improved in the running game. Justin Blalock was his usual unspectacular self – doesn’t win you games, doesn’t lose them. He’s overpaid, but is an above average guard. Tyson Clabo had a rough start due to injury, but his run blocking really shined at times and his pass blocking was much improved at the end of the year.

The other two positions were a bit less successful. Todd McClure’s time appears to be up – his physical limitations have finally overtaken his mental abilities. He was one of the main reasons for the run games failures, and was charged with the most sacks given up by a centre in the league (per Pro Football Weekly). At right guard, Garrett Reynolds was an excellent pass protector, but simply did not generate movement at the POA in the run game. And Peter Konz validated some of his draft day slide after Reynolds’ injury – struggling with NFL power at guard. A move inside to centre, where he can use his mobility to double team then get out on a linebacker, appears in his future, although he needs to improve his balance and body control at the second level.
Going forward, there will be some change on the line this year. Mike Johnson was used as the 6th OL in most packages, and can compete for a job at RG. Lamar Holmes after a year of seasoning should be ready to assume at least the swing tackle role. Sam Baker is a free agent who should be targeted for re-signing – but the injury concerns he has will have to be reflected in his contract structure.


Falcons Depth Chart
OT:
Sam Baker (UFA)
Tyson Clabo
Lamar Holmes
Will Svitek (Injured Reserve) (UFA)

OG:
Justin Blalock
Garrett Reynolds (Injured Reserve) (UFA)
Mike Johnson
Phillipkeith Manley
Harland Gunn
Jacques McClendon (Practice Squad)

OC:
Peter Konz
Todd McClure (UFA)
Joe Hawley


Falcons FAs
- Either Baker is re-signed to start, or Holmes is the LT and Svitek returns as the swing tackle. It seems excessive to retain both, when we can draft a late rounder to develop as the #4 tackle (Mike Johnson can also play RT if required).

- Garrett Reynolds can be re-signed if desired but he has clear limitations at guard due to his inability to get leverage on running plays. If he is re-signed, it should be for low cost. However, if he is not re-signed a FA or draftee should be considered.

- Todd McClure will retire or not be offered a new deal. Konz and Hawley are set at centre.


Possible Cuts:
- There are no contenders for a cut.


Scheme / What We Are Looking For
Right guard who is strong at the POA and can generate movement in the run game. Must be secure enough in pass protection to occasionally be left isolated, although will not be asked to do difficult tasks (reach 3 tech outside etc.)


Potential Targets (FA):

Brandon Moore
Strong savvy player who is older but can still get the job done in the short term. As always, cheap deal though – not one to break the bank for.


FFMD - State of the Market:
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2013 Stats: 24/27 FG (88.9%), 39/39 XP (100%)
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DrawABlank


Joined: 27 Dec 2009
Posts: 2826
Location: London, UK
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

scar988 wrote:
free agent suggestions for the following spots:

starting RB
RB Cedric Benson Green Bay Packers
RB Ronnie Brown San Diego Chargers
RB Reggie Bush Miami Dolphins
RB Peyton Hillis Kansas City Chiefs
RB Rashard Mendenhall Pittsburgh Steelers
RB LaRod Stephens-Howling Arizona Cardinals

No. 3 WR/3rd down option - Draft
WR Julian Edelman New England Patriots
WR Greg Jennings Green Bay Packers

Starting TE
TE Martellus Bennett New York Giants
TE Jared Cook Tennessee Titans
TE Tony Gonzalez Atlanta Falcons
TE Dustin Keller New York Jets
TE Delanie Walker San Francisco 49ers

Pass rushing DE who can be used all around the formation for at least 3rd down situations
DE Cliff Avril Detroit Lions
DL Michael Bennett Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DL Osi Umenyiora New York Giants
LB Dwight Freeney Indianapolis Colts
LB Paul Kruger Baltimore Ravens
LB Anthony Spencer Dallas Cowboys


- No to all non-drafted RBs, except Reggie Bush for very cheap (will send a figure to Scar)
- No to both WRs (Edelman does nothing well - Jennings will be way to much)
- Assuming Gonzalez is retiring, Jared Cook is my #2 TE target behind the guy below.
- Bennett/Avril would be a nice fits at DE, but only for less than I would expect they get in FFMD. Osi/Freeney too old; Kruger/Spencer are the defeinition of contract year players.

- There are two other non-Falcons that we should be targeting heavily:

DT Randy Starks - played with Nolan in MIA, pro bowl run stuffer who can also get after the QB (9 sacks last 2 years)
TE Heath Miller - ultra reliable 3rd down chain mover who can get down the seam and block better than Tony G

If we cannot obtain either Starks, Miller, Cook, Avril or Bennett, then I would re-sign Grimes.

If we have cap space remaining, we should just push some of Ryan's money into this year (give him a roster bonus of $10m or so and reduce our future cap exposure). I don't want to sign players just for the sake of doing so - that's how you get Ray Edwards. Shop at the top end of the market and you will rarely be disappointed:

Bust rate of last year's FAs who signed $7m/yr+ deals:
10% (and that was Eric Wright - who should never have got so much)

Bust rate of 4m-7m deals:
41% - including Demetrius Bell, Laurent Robinson, Robert Meachem, John Carlson, Tracy Porter
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2013 Stats: 24/27 FG (88.9%), 39/39 XP (100%)
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DrawABlank


Joined: 27 Dec 2009
Posts: 2826
Location: London, UK
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Position Analysis: Defensive Line


Previous Analysis
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
Offensive Line


All Teams - Free Agents and Depth Charts (links)
http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchartpos/DE
http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchartpos/DT

http://www.footballsfuture.com/2013/fa/dl.html

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aumt15OmpzQ2dHRvc28wUVd3WUJyR2NoN2RmUDJKQ3c&usp=sharing#gid=38


2012 Season Review
Some themes have changed over the Dimitroff/Smith regime. Our offense has evolved from being predicated on the run to reliant on the pass. Our defensive backs have gone from an embarrassment (remember Tye Hill *shudders*) to a strength. Our offensive line has been somewhat retooled, and is a very serviceable unit.

But one constant has remained – on the DL it’s been Abraham and Babineaux bringing the heat, and a fairly minimal contribution from everyone else. Now the rosters of names around has had shifting fortunes both downwards (Sidbury had 4 sacks last year, now none) and upwards (Vance Walker has his best year in 2012). But in reality, we lack difference makers outside of those two – and they are getting older every year (shockingly).

In terms of numbers – in 2012 we were 27th in adjusted sack rate (percentage of sacks per pass) – the teams below us went 24-56 including two teams who set records for defensive futility (Saints and Bucs). Other than Abraham’s 10 sacks, Biermann was the leader with 4, Babs with 3.5 and Spoon with 3. And it’s not as if we were making up for it with tons of hurries either.

The personnel and coaching both need to be addressed in 2013. Hamliton has been given some pieces (Jerry, Sidbury, Edwards) and little improvement has resulted. A run stuffing DT to pair with Babs (with Peters and hopefully Walker in the rotation) would be a start. And a left end who can provide some versatility is also a big need.

In terms of scheme – whether we call it a 3-4, a 4-3 or a hybrid, we are always playing 1 gap concepts and asking guys to penetrate. We do not need a Grady Jackson-esque clogger – we need a guy who can get off blocks and make plays in the backfield. And if 2011 was the year of Jones, and 2012 was the year of the OL (Konz and Holmes), then I desperately hope that 2013 is the year of the DL.


Falcons Depth Chart
DE:
John Abraham
Kroy Biermann
Cliff Matthews
Lawrence Sidbury (UFA)
Jonathan Massaquoi

DT:
Jonathan Babineaux
Corey Peters
Vance Walker (UFA)
Peria Jerry
Travian Robertson
Micanor Regis (Practice Squad)


Falcons FAs
- Vance Walker is the key target. In real life, I expect him to return on a reasonable deal. In FFMD, with the amount of cap teams will have and the limited pool of free agents, I expect he will be very expensive to retain.

- Lawrence Sidbury will get a chance elsewhere, but not in Flowery Branch.


Possible Cuts:
- Peria Jerry would save just under a million by cutting, but we have plenty of cap space at present and if Walker does not return we have some depth concerns. If Walker and a FA/draftee come in, he could well be released.


Scheme / What We Are Looking For
- Nose Tackle for 1 gap scheme who is strong against the run and offers more than nothing against the pass.
- Left End who can turn the corner, has some power, can keep contain and has positional flexibility


Potential Targets (FA):

Randy Starks, Dolphins
Worked with Nolan previously, and a good fit at both 3-4 DE and 4-3 DT. Key cog in a solid run defense (8th in DVOA). 9 sacks over last two years from DT. Pro Bowler last year and Miami is said to be moving on for roster reasons.

Cliff Avril, Lions
Not a great run defender but can get after the QB (29.5 sacks in last 3 years) and is still very young (only 26). Mainly played on the left side for Detroit so is easily projectable. Needs a strong locker room around him but not a character concern.

Michael Bennett, Buccaneers
What Ray Edwards was supposed to be – strong run defender who isn’t a “great” pass rusher but can win when he gets a good matchup. Will get you 6-9 sacks a year while also helping against the run. Would also weaken a divisional rival
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2013 Stats: 24/27 FG (88.9%), 39/39 XP (100%)
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JonnyQuest


Joined: 23 Jun 2011
Posts: 1684
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we should at least consider Freeney. Yes, he is old, but he will be much cheaper than Bennett or Avril. I think Avril could turn out to be a big bust too. Freeney played is a scheme ill fitted to him last year, so I expect him to have a nice bounce back year in a 4-3.
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings,

A few issues have arisen, and we are working to correct the issues. Estonianzulu has alerted us that he's going to have spotty internet connection for the next month, so as a result CWood21 is heading up FFMD. Also, TheVillain112 will be running free agency. Any issues regarding the general running of FFMD should be directed at CWood21 and concerns regarding free agency should be sent to TheVillain112 with properly titled PMs with clear thought processeses.

The timeline has been a bit lax due to circumstances that couldn't be foreseen, so as a result the timeline is being adjusted. Here's the new schedule.

Quote:
February 7th- 10 PM- Tender/Closes for EFRA/RFA/Franchise Players
February 12th- 8 AM- Contract Offers Open for tendered players
February 13th- 10 PM- Contract Offers Close for Tendered players
February 14th- 10 AM- Teams able to match contracts for Tendered Players
February 14th- 10 PM- Unmatched players transferred, matched contracts final

February 15th 10:00 AM- Talent Agency Opens Tier 1
February 16th- 8:00 PM- Talent Agency Closes Tier 1
February 16th- 10:00 PM- Tier 1 Signings announced
February 16th- 10:01 PM- Talent Agency Opens Tier 2
February 17th- 8:00 PM- Talent Agency Closes Tier 2
February 17th- 10:00 PM- Tier 2 Signings announced
February 18th- 10:01 PM- Talent Agency Opens Tier 3
February 19th- 8:00 PM- Talent Agency Closes Tier 3
February 19th- 10:00 PM- Tier 3 Signings announced
February 20th- 8:00 AM- Shark Tank Opens
February 25th- 8:00 PM- Shark Tank Closes
February 26th- 8:00 AM- Draft Begins


Any issues with the timeline need to be addressed ASAP to CWood21. Waiting until the issue arises will not help the cause.

Finally, we'd like to remind you that this is a group effort. Any staff member who is acting without the majority approval of his staff will be removed from his or her position after research into the incident. Consider this your final warning, regardless of whether or not you've stepped out of line before.

Thanks for your understanding,
Management
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This one is over. Mark down the dubya.

Colts 45 - Chiefs 44
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ShockdAtFalcons


Joined: 15 Dec 2008
Posts: 857
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think going after Reggie at RB, re-signing Baker or Svitek, pursuing a solid TE in Cook/Miller, and bringing in Starks to beef up the middle are all great ideas.

as far as DE goes Im undecided on what direction we should take. Also, whats everybodys consensus on Dent? Do we stick with him or go for an upgrade?

Good read DaB
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2013 Foster a falcon
SS William Moore: 85 Tackles, 3 FFs, 3 INTs.
WR Harry Douglas: 85 rec, 1,067 yards, 2 TDs.
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DrawABlank


Joined: 27 Dec 2009
Posts: 2826
Location: London, UK
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ShockdAtFalcons wrote:
as far as DE goes Im undecided on what direction we should take. Also, whats everybodys consensus on Dent? Do we stick with him or go for an upgrade?


I'm still firmly on the "draft a DE" train but could be persuaded into an under 30 FA. If we go for an Osi or Freeney, we could be looking at both Abe and the other DE both hitting the wall in the same year, with absolutely nothing in terms of experienced talent behind them - as Biermann will still be the 3rd DE.

I'm torn on Dent. He definitely got better against the run as the season went on, but he's always going to struggle in coverage. The one guy who fit us perfectly has been resigned (Daryl Smith of Jacksonville).

The free agency class for LBers is very thin, and in the draft the only guys who are a coverage upgrade on Dent are liable to be gone before pick 60 - and I really don't want to use our 1st rounder on a LBer.

So essentially I would like to upgrade Dent but don't see a way of doing that this year. My two top trade candidates (Dan Connor and Pat Angerer) have already been moved, so I think we have to give him one more year and then address the position in 2014 if he doesn't develop.
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2013 Stats: 24/27 FG (88.9%), 39/39 XP (100%)
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TheVillain112


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can someone from the FFMD staff please PM me with a list of the RFAs/ERFAs that have been tendered/not tendered for your team?
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scar988


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheVillain112 wrote:
Can someone from the FFMD staff please PM me with a list of the RFAs/ERFAs that have been tendered/not tendered for your team?
sent.
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JonnyQuest


Joined: 23 Jun 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DrawABlank wrote:
ShockdAtFalcons wrote:
as far as DE goes Im undecided on what direction we should take. Also, whats everybodys consensus on Dent? Do we stick with him or go for an upgrade?


I'm still firmly on the "draft a DE" train but could be persuaded into an under 30 FA. If we go for an Osi or Freeney, we could be looking at both Abe and the other DE both hitting the wall in the same year, with absolutely nothing in terms of experienced talent behind them - as Biermann will still be the 3rd DE.

I'm torn on Dent. He definitely got better against the run as the season went on, but he's always going to struggle in coverage. The one guy who fit us perfectly has been resigned (Daryl Smith of Jacksonville).

The free agency class for LBers is very thin, and in the draft the only guys who are a coverage upgrade on Dent are liable to be gone before pick 60 - and I really don't want to use our 1st rounder on a LBer.

So essentially I would like to upgrade Dent but don't see a way of doing that this year. My two top trade candidates (Dan Connor and Pat Angerer) have already been moved, so I think we have to give him one more year and then address the position in 2014 if he doesn't develop.


Why not sign a cheap veteran DE and also draft one? We can use all the pass rushers we can get.

I think we can set a price point on someone like Freeney and offer a contract. If he declines, then we move on, but I think as a situational pass rusher he can still be effective.

No DE under 30 will be worth the money they will be commanding.
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scar988


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

other teams RFA's. Any thoughts?

AJ Jefferson, CB - $1.26M (UDFA)
Nate Collins, DT - $1.26M (UDFA)
Willie Young, DE - $1.927M (2nd Round)
Jason Fox, OL - $1.26M (4th Round)
Sam Shields, CB - $2.742M (1st Round)
Evan Dietrich-Smith, OL - $1.927M (2nd Round)
Daniel Teo-Nesheim, DE - $1.26 million (3rd Round)
Brian De La Puente, OL - $1.927M (2nd round)
Junior Galette, LB - $1.927M (2nd round)
Chris Ivory, RB - $1.927M (2nd round)
Victor Cruz, WR - $2.742M (1st Round)
Stevie Brown, S - $1,927M (2nd round)
Andre Brown, RB - $1.26M (4th round)
Darrel Young, FB - $1.927M (2nd round)
Colt Anderson, S - $1.26M (UDFA)
Darian Stewart, S - $1.927M (2nd Round)
Clinton McDonald, DT - $1.26M (7th Round)
Chris Ogbonnaya, RB - $1.26M (7th Round)
Jonathan Dwyer, RB - $1.26M (6th Round)
Steve McLendon, DT - $1.26M (UDFA)
Isaac Redman, RB - $1.26M (UDFA)
Emmanuel Sanders, WR - $1.26M (3rd Round)
Arthur Jones, DE - $1.927M (2nd round)
Dennis Pitta, TE - $1.927M (2nd round)
Ed Dickson, TE - $1.26M (3rd round)
Jeff Linkenbach, OL - $1.26M (UDFA)
AJ Edds, LB - $1.26M (4th Round)
Seth Olsen, OL - $1.26M (4th Round)
Cassius Vaughn, CB - $1.927M (2nd round)
Jordan Shipley, WR - $1.927M (2nd Round)
Fernando Velasco, OL - $1.927M (2nd Round)
Michael Hoomanawanui, TE - $1.26M (5th Round)
Britton Colquitt, P - $1.927M (2nd round)
Chris Clark, OL - $1.26M (UDFA)
Phillip Adams, CB - $1.26M (7th Round)
Ropati Pitoitua, DE - $1.927M (2nd Round)
Danario Alexander, WR - $1.927M (2nd Round)


Bolded the ones I would personally make offers on.

Also look at the franchised guys. hurts us a bit.

Franchised Players
Pat McAfee, P, Colts
Ryan Clady, OT, Broncos
Michael Bennett, DE, Bucs
Kenny Phillips, S, Giants
Ed Reed, S, Ravens
Derek Cox, CB, Jaguars
Jon Dorenbos, LS, Eagles
Dashon Goldson, S, 49ers
Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers
Branden Albert, OT, Chiefs
Jarius Byrd, S, Bills
Andre Smith, OT, Bengals
Henry Melton, DT, Bears
Jared Cook, TE, Titans
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JonnyQuest


Joined: 23 Jun 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd rather draft a RB then get Dwyer. He doesn't fit our scheme very well.
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scar988


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The FA groups in the talent agency:

Group 1
WR Greg Jennings - CWood21
WR Dwayne Bowe - TheVillain112
WR Wes Welker - tylerdouglass
OT Jake Long - Desperado82
OG Andy Levitre - CWood21
DE Cliff Avril - drd23
OLB James Harrison - tylerdouglass
CB Brent Grimes - TheVillain112

Group 2
RB Steven Jackson - tylerdouglass
TE Heath Miller - CWood21
OT Sebastian Volmer - CWood21
OT Sam Baker - Desperado82
LB Connor Barwin - TheVillain112
DE Dwight Freeney - TheVillain112
CB Sean Smith - drd23
CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie - tylerdouglass

Group 3
QB Alex Smith - CWood21
RB Michael Turner - CWood21
RB Shonn Greene - drd23
RB Reggie Bush - tylerdouglass
TE Dustin Keller - Desperado82
LB Brian Urlacher - TheVillain112
LB Shaun Phillips - tylerdouglass
DT Terrance Knighton - TheVillain112

Bolded are guys I think we should pitch to.
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Jgoldiscool


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Levitre, Grimes, Miller, Bush, Keller, and and Knighton are my votes.
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adam9


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Out of group one I would try to get Long or Avril. Not huge on overspending for Avril or Long though. Levitre would be decent. Not sure why you would want him anyway scar if you think Hawley is our future C. I'd personally like to see Konz at C and Johnson at RG rather than signing an expensive FA though. I would definitely make a pitch to Brent Grimes too.

Out of the group two guys there isn't really a guy I would be mad if we pursued. I would think Freeney should be our first priority of those guys then Heath Miller. Baker could be okay for a short contract. I would like to see us get DRC if we don't get Grimes. Jackson might go surprisingly cheap. Obviously all of that is impending the market for these fellas.

Out of group three, Terrance Knighton would be a solid get. Keller and Urlacher also seem like good options. Bush and Turner could be decent signings.

Guys I want in order: Knighton, Long, Freeney, Miller, Urlacher, Grimes/DRC, Levitre, Baker, any RB.

I think we get a solid order and try to get 2/3 guys. Would make our draft much easier...
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