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My Alabama biased mock draft

 
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Joe Willie


Joined: 15 Apr 2012
Posts: 319
PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 8:28 pm    Post subject: My Alabama biased mock draft Reply with quote

I'm not mocking cuts and signings because I barely understand the cap. This is purely the Draft, my favorite day of the year (until the Jets play in the Super Bowl). I'm also not trading Revis as I don't have a realistic view on what his value is in terms of draft picks.

The Jets trade the 9th overall pick (worth 1350 points) to the St. Louis Rams for the 16th overall pick (worth 1000 points), the 78th overall pick (worth 200 points), and a 2014 4th rounder.

The Jets lose a little value but gain some depth. The Rams jump ahead of the Titans to take Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama.

1st round, 16th overall - The Jets select Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

Jarvis Jones dropping down draft boards as a result of injury concerns and a no-show at the Combine is a godsend for the Jets. He was once a lock to be gone well before our 9th overall pick and now we can afford to trade down and still snap him up before the Steelers can get their hands on him. It's a bit risky to move below the Saints, who will also be targeting a DE/OLB, but we can always fall back on Barkevious Mingo, Bjeorn Werner, or Damontre Moore in the worst case scenario.

2nd round, 39th overall - The Jets select Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

I'm firmly in the "Don't draft a QB" camp this season. I don't foresee anybody from this class as a Super Bowl caliber QB, not even Geno Smith. Gun to my head I probably say Tyler Wilson, but he is already developing concussion problems. It might be a horrible position to take, but I'm totally cool with Sanchez starting this season so we can tank for Teddy Bridgewater or Johnny Football. With that said, after addressing the pass rushing situation I'm looking to supply Bridgewater or Manziel with a few weapons on offense, and I'm doing it this year so they have some experience under their belt when that QB steps in next season. I love Eddie Lacy's play making potential. He has the speed and elusiveness to be a game breaker and the size to bowl people over. He's roughly the same size as AD, giving only about an inch, which people don't realize when they see him blazing a 4.4 40 even with a tight hamstring.

3rd round, 72nd overall - The Jets select Barrett Jones, OL, Alabama

It's shocking to me that such a valuable player is dropping so far. He could start at any position on the line and worst case scenario could be a solid backup at all 5 positions, which is a tremendous piece to have. Mangold gets hurt? Jones comes in. Brick gets hurt? Jones comes in. Both of those injuries would be devastating to the Jets and this pick is insurance against either one. In the mean time, Jones has the flexibility to start at either guard position or right tackle for us. An above average starter or elite backup is great value for the third round.

3rd round, 78th overall - The Jets select Stedman Bailey, WR, WVU

Another playmaker for the QB of the future. Bailey is a great fit for the Jets new WCO, and his breakaway speed, sticky hands, and precise route running project him as the next Wes Welker in the right system. I would hate to see this guy go to the Pats and I could see them reaching for him in the second or even the first as Bill Belichick rarely follows convention when drafting. It wouldn't be the first time he took a guy 50 picks early and looked like a genius.

4th round, 103rd overall - The Jets select Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU

This is a bit of a reach and ideally I would like for the Jets to trade down either a little bit into the 4th or pick up an extra 5th rounder (and another pick obviously) to take him, but figuring out late round trades is a bit confusing (as I won't do a trade unless it makes sense for the other team and the values match up). So instead I have the Jets taking Mathieu about 15 spots to high, but he has so much upside that it's worth a shot. Mathieu is a playmaker with a nose for the ball. He could either step in and be our #2 (although he's a better fit in Kyle Wilson's role) if Revis leaves and I also think he's a good fit as a rangy FS next to Landry if he moves to SS like I suspect he will if he resigns. I know there are character issues and that we're trying to eliminate that from the team, but I think Mathieu was humbled by being dismissed from LSU and will be on his best behavior to rectify his image. He will probably be better behaved than the average rookie.

5th round, 134th overall - The Jets select Ryan Otten, TE, San Jose State

Another guy falling due to character concerns, Otten could be a third round talent. The Jets could scoop him up to replace Keller and give Bridgewater/Manziel a reliable target next season.

6th round, 168th overall - The Jets select Michael Williams, TE, Alabama

This is why I wanted to trade down to get Mathieu later in the 4th, so we could turn this pick into a 5th to get Williams there. Williams may still be available here, but I think it's more realistic to get him in the 5th. Just pretend I did that. I swear I'm not picking guys just because they play for Alabama, I just happen to be really familiar with their skill sets and think they make good fits for our holes. I did draft guys from LSU and Georgia after all. Anyway, Williams isn't a great pass catching TE, although he's underrated in that area. I'm picking him for his elite run blocking skills. I know we're moving towards a WCO, but I still want to run the ball a lot and Williams will help Lacy get outside the tackles. The Pats have shown the value of a two TE-set and the Jets could do a bit of that although it would make more sense to cycle the two rookie TEs in and out on rushing and passing downs.

Round 7, 199th overall - The Jets select Lonnie Pryor, FB, FSU

Not a lot to say about this one. Pryor is a solid run-blocking FB to open up holes and has above average receiving skills, which will provide Bridgewater/Manziel with a much needed security blanket next season.

Thoughts?


Last edited by Joe Willie on Mon Mar 11, 2013 12:44 am; edited 2 times in total
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Joe Willie


Joined: 15 Apr 2012
Posts: 319
PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also I would have liked to trade down at the Mathieu spot to acquire an extra pick to take a linebacker (either an ILB although I like Demario Davis or a late round flyer on an athletic OLB like Kenny Tate) but like I said I couldn't figure out the trade. I'll stick with what I have.
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RollTide99


Joined: 08 Jan 2013
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 8:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ROLL TIDE
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JetsFan15


Joined: 05 Jan 2008
Posts: 788
Location: Dutchess County, NY
PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 8:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like the draft for the most part but I don't know how realistic it is for Jones to fall that far .... seems like concern about his neck/spinal cord has disappeared with all the reports.
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superbowlbound


Joined: 30 Dec 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I dont think Jarvis makes it to #16

Dont think Barrett Jones makes it to the 3rd
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xenajets


Joined: 31 Mar 2012
Posts: 2103
PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All your picks have good analysis and make sense. I just hate the thought of tanking the season, there is no way a team like ours which is still a decent team should be tanking a season before FA, the draft or even a single down played. We need help on both sides of the ball but as long as we don't mess u the Revis situation this team should still be better than Miami and Buffalo next year. We should improve our offense with MM and I'm hopeful we kind find a competent quarterback to fit his system. If next year we are picking between 8-16 and want to get our franchise quarterback then we will have plenty to choose from plus ammunition to trade up and grab the guy we want.
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Joe Willie


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 10:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not advising an all-out tank job, I'm just cool with starting Sanchez because I think we will end up with a high draft pick as a result. I do want the team to give an effort and for Wilkerson/Coples/this draft class to improve, but if Sanchez is terrible and we get a draft pick between 5-12 or so I'm cool with it. We can trade up.

But if we're gonna be bad, I would rather be really bad. Teams aren't just gonna give up draft picks with franchise QBs on the board.
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Joe Willie


Joined: 15 Apr 2012
Posts: 319
PostPosted: Mon Mar 11, 2013 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

superbowlbound wrote:
I dont think Jarvis makes it to #16

Dont think Barrett Jones makes it to the 3rd


I think there is a very good chance both Jones' fall to where I'm mocking them.

Pretty much every mock I follow has him going 17th to the Steelers except Kiper, who has him going 5th but has updated in a while. I think he will be there and like I said if we're taking a DE/OLB there is virtually no difference between picking 9th and 16th. The same guys should be there with both picks minus whoever the Saints take if they go that route. At least one of Jordan, Mingo, Ansah, Moore, or Werner will be there. I think Jones will be.

As for Barrett Jones, he's a wildcard. Not many mocks go past the first round so it's hard to gauge where he is expected to go. I'd say anywhere between 50, when the Bears pick, and 80, when the Cowboys pick. Maybe it makes more sense to flip him and Bailey.

EDIT: In fact, yeah. I'm gonna do that.
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skatebeanz


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

superbowlbound wrote:
I dont think Jarvis makes it to #16

Dont think Barrett Jones makes it to the 3rd
According to some people I have read Jones is a reach any earlier than the third. Some had him there at the highest. Most after the 3rd.
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sandwhich


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see Jones going in the second somewhere.
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skatebeanz


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sandwhich wrote:
I see Jones going in the second somewhere.
I was just saying what Daniel Jeremiah said. He spoke to executives and said the highest he heard him going was 3rd. He has injury stuff and gets pushed around. He would get pushed around a lot in some game. Can't handle speed.
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