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2013 OffSeason

 
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ssumpter22


Joined: 29 Mar 2012
Posts: 11
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 1:11 pm    Post subject: 2013 OffSeason Reply with quote

Since our season was cut short, by what we can only call non-adjustments, we now have the dis-luxury of talking about the off-season. This includes free agency and the draft. I'll put down what I think is best and let y'all critique me to death.

Free Agency:
ERFA's - resign all
RFA's - resign both
UFA's: resign Baker, Svitek, Walker, Grimes (2-3yr deal 15-18Mill), and Moore

Retirements:
Gonzalez (I pray he comes back for one last shot, but that is a very very long shot) McClure and Peterson

Cuts:
Turner (Thanks for all you did to turn our franchise around, but this is a business and cutting him is the only thing we can do) Jerry and Franks

Free Agent Signings w/ reason:
Assuming all the free agents who are listed as free agents don't resign with their teams (I know that's not likely)
1. Danny Amendola - put him in the slot and let him thrive with his quickness and sure hands (5yr 22mil)
2. Brandon Myers - A one year wonder so far, sign him for a short deal and see if he pans out, make him fight with our tight ends and a rookie (2yr 7.5mil)
3. Jake Long - sometimes players in the NFL just need a change of scenery, bring him in a plug him in at left tackle, move Baker to right tackle and put Clabo at right guard (5yr 65mil)
4. Michael Johnson - a freak of nature at D-End, we need to generate pressure and who knows how long JA55 has left (4yr 50mil)

Draft:

1. Barrett Jones (Alabama) - he can play 4 positions on the oline, but the Falcons will plug him in at C and let him man that position for the next 12-15yrs, he also played for Nick Saban at Alabama
2. David Amerson (N.C. State) - he can play Corner or Safety, Nolan's D needs and loves versatility
3. Shawn Williams (Georgia) - He can back up either safety spot and could be another one of those hybrid players that thrives in Nolan's hybrid Defense
4a. Kwame Geathers (Georgia) - huge run stuffer, can play on run downs and 3 lineman sets, we need a real nose on our D
4b. Marcus Lattimore (South Carolina) - take a chance, he would have been a top 5 pick before all his injuries, now we get to take a chance on a guy who only needs someone to give him a shot
5. Dion Sims (Michigan State) - 6'5 250 gives him a nice frame to gain weight and could be a sleeper at tight end for Matty Ice
6. B.W. Webb (William and Mary) - Corner depth, I believe rounds 6 and 7 should be oline, dline and secondary depth
7. Travis Bond (North Carolina) - 6'6 340 OG pick him up and give him a shot, huge human being.
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DrawABlank


Joined: 27 Dec 2009
Posts: 2843
Location: London, UK
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 1:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First of all, thanks for posting this off-season. Nice to see you on this part of the forum.

I like the attention you've paid to the lines in this - our two big FAs and the 1st round pick, and two extra players for depth. It's good to see another fan that recognizes that at times we get out-muscled in the trenches.

I also love a couple of the players you have picked up - Marcus Lattimore is well worth a flyer if he makes it to the 5th, and the single game I saw of Webb was very encouraging.

---

However, I would suggest that it is slightly unrealistic in terms of FA acquisitions. We are currently at $113m committed against the cap of $121m for next year.
Even with the $5.5m we save from cutting Turner (smart move BTW), that space would be swallowed up by the RFAs and your re-signings.
As a result, bringing in two $10m+/yr FAs might be a tad optimistic.

I'm also a bit skeptical on three of the players in your draft.
- Barrett Jones is a fine centre prospect, but Peter Konz has provided little push in the run game at RG and I believe his playing strength and smarts fit better at centre. As a result, if we target an interior player early I would rather a guard who can help out our run game.
- David Amerson lacks the athleticism to play man to man and thus would limit some of the looks we can send at offenses. His tackling fundamentals are also lacking and with Dunta, Asante and Grimes already somewhat questionable in run support, I would prefer a more physical player.
- Kwame Geathers is little more than a large body at this point. With the lack of development from our DL draft picks, I am wary of such a significant project.

I would be interested to hear your thoughts when you have a chance.
_________________

Foster-A-Falcon: Matt Bryant
2013 Stats: 24/27 FG (88.9%), 39/39 XP (100%)
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ssumpter22


Joined: 29 Mar 2012
Posts: 11
PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I did ponder on the fact that the free agent signings was a tad optimistic, but I also assumed since we are so close, Mr. Blank may be willing to make anything and everything happen this offseason. Similar to the style Ted Turner brought to the Brraves during their amazing run of pennants.

Barrett Jones can play every position on the Oline, no reason not to have him as insurance for any injury or to start at any of the open positions we have e.g. if we don't grab a Jake Long type player we can plug him in at LT.

I pictured Amerson coming in a playing both corner and safety, but I do not know much about the guy, so I'll take your word for it. Plug in a great hybrid type DB where I drafted him.

As for Gaethers, 6'6 350+ would generate great push in the run D and be a great NT for our 3 lineman looks. I think he is a project as well, but I feel that he can play and learn at the same time with his size, strength and power.

I would love to hear what you are thinking about for our offseason as well.
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DrawABlank


Joined: 27 Dec 2009
Posts: 2843
Location: London, UK
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 8:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My broad sketch of an off-season.

My priorities:
1. Improve ability to run the ball in short yardage and 4th quarter situations.
2. Add young talent to the DL and increase versatility of unit
3. Reward our own players wherever possible in free agency
4. Make targeted signings to address key weaknesses on defensive side

Re-Signing
Sam Baker (3 yrs/$12m)
William Moore (4 yrs/$19m or Franchise Tag)
Vance Walker (2 yrs/$4m)
Chris Owens (minimum)
Robert McClain (RFA 2nd Rd Tender)
Michael Palmer (RFA Right to Match)
All ERFAs


Re-Structure
Dunta Robinson / Brent Grimes - Saving $4m
If we cut Dunta we only carry a $1m dead money charge (compared to his overall cap hit of nearly $9m). Bring back one of Robinson or Grimes (I would prefer Grimes) for a total cap hit of c.$5m

Retirements
Tony Gonzalez
Mike Peterson
Todd McClure


Cuts
Michael Turner
Peria Jerry


External Signings
Randy Starks, DT, Miami - 3 years / $12.5m Total / $6m SB
Worked with Nolan previously, and a good fit at both 3-4 DE and 4-3 DT. Key cog in a solid run defense (8th in DVOA).

Daryl Smith, LB, Jacksonville - 2 yrs / $7.8m / $3.6m SB
Georgia native, played college at Tech, plays at ATL South and played for Smith there. Solid coverage player who could play SLB or MLB for us. Injured last year but previously a PB caliber player.
If I could get him for under $4m/yr, I would do that. Dependent on the Jags though, as they have the cap space to re-sign him.

Cap Situation
Starting: $113m
Savings: $9.5m (Turner + CB)
Spending: $21.5m

Total: $125m

Now the cap is $121m, so that is obviously over. However, the figure above is simply taking the average per year of all contracts, and includes $8.35m of dead money (mostly Edwards and Turner) that will not count in 2014.
So we merely re-structure a few contracts to move some money into 2014. This isn't going to rob from the future / cripple us with big bills to come - it's just sensible accounting.
Remember, if Daryl Smith is re-signed in Jax, then we remove another $3.9m off the figure and then we are very close even with the dead money.

Draft
1. Alex Okafor, DE, Texas
Can be what Edwards was supposed to be (6-8 sacks, good vs run). Played DT, DE, OLB at Texas so has versatility for Nolan. Very productive senior team captain - fits TD's profile.
Alternative: Datone Jones, UCLA

2. Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky
All-SEC guard who can move people off the ball in the run game and still keep Matt Ryan clean. Surprisingly good feet for a big man. Still has upside in strength terms due to slightly sloppy body.
Alternative: Travis Fredrick, Wisconsin

3. Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati
Very athletic, good bloodlines (brother is NFL OL), can block very well in run game (iffy in pass blocking though). Productive in senior year despite so-so QB play. Dependent on Falcons Filter as was suspended from team in 2010 but google does not tell me why.
Alternative: Draft Taylor here, Gavin Escobar in round 4 with original pick

Package 4th and 5th Round Picks for High 4th
4. Stepfan Taylor, RB, Stanford
Good vision for the inside run and he has more elusiveness than he is often credited for. Is well developed and able to contribute both pass blocking and in the screen game. Similar profile to Stevan Ridley, who has done well in the 2 down role on the Patriots. Team captain and senior leader.
Alternative: Mike Gillislee, Florida

Comp (4th/5th) Mid-Round Cornerback
Won't commit to a name until after the combine (40 time + shuttles v. important for corners). Jamar Taylor / Brandon McGee / B.W Webb / Leon McFadden all possibilities.
Alternative: As above

6. Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas
Can't teach speed. And he's actually looked quite polished at the Senior Bowl. BTW, if Tavarres King is available at a 5th round comp pick (i.e. if we only get a 5th) then take him there and grab a CB here. Competes with HD for #3 WR.
Alternative: Jasper Collins, Mount Union

7. Jake Knott, OLB, Iowa State
Actually prefer his team-mate Klein but suspect he will be gone. Good playing speed and instincts and blue-collar player likely to make impact on ST
Alternatives: Sio Moore, Connecticut

Comp 7th. Targeted UDFA
This low down, we just grab a guy who isn't 100% commited to us as an UDFA but we want to look at in camp. Preferably a lineman who we can stash on the PS for a year.

Depth Chart
QB - Matt Ryan - Dominique Davis
RB - Stepfan Taylor - Jacquizz Rodgers - Jason Snelling - Antone Smith
FB - Bradie Ewing
WR - Roddy White - Drew Davis
WR - Julio Jones - Kevin Cone
SLOT - Harry Douglas - Marquise Goodwin
TE - Travis Kelce - Michael Palmer - Chase Coffman
LT - Sam Baker - Lamar Holmes
LG - Justin Blalock - Phillipkeith Manley
C - Peter Konz - Joe Hawley
RG - Larry Warford - Mike Johnson
RT - Tyson Clabo - (Mike Johnson)

RE - John Abraham - Cliff Matthews - Jonathan Massaquoi
UT - Jonathan Babineaux - Vance Walker
NT - Randy Starks - Corey Peters - Travian Robertson
LE - Alex Okafor - Kroy Biermann
SLB - Stephen Nicholas - Jake Knott
MLB - Daryl Smith - Akeem Dent - Pat Schiller
WLB - Sean Weatherspoon - Robert James
CB - Brent Grimes or Dunta Robinson - Chris Owens
CB - Asante Samuel - Robert McClain
NCB - Robert McClain - College CB
SS - William Moore - Shann Schillinger
FS - Thomas DeCoud - Charles Mitchell

K - Matt Bryant
P - Matt Bosher
LS - Josh Harris

Have I achieved aims?
1. Improve ability to run the ball in short yardage and 4th quarter situations.
Added Taylor as big back with good burst. Warford should be good to run behind, and with Konz at C we have a lot of power for QB sneaks.
2. Add young talent to the DL and increase versatility of unit
Okafor brought in for young, Starks increases versatility. Continue to develop Massaquoi, Matthews and Robertson
3. Reward our own players wherever possible in free agency
Only 1 (or 2) external FAs brought in; 3 substantial re-signings. Only starting player to leave is Reynolds.
4. Make targeted signings to address key weaknesses on defensive side
Starks helps run defense, Smith helps both run D and pass coverage on RBs/TEs in nickel
_________________

Foster-A-Falcon: Matt Bryant
2013 Stats: 24/27 FG (88.9%), 39/39 XP (100%)
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