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Dirk's Min-Max Off Season
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Dirk Gently


Joined: 04 Jun 2008
Posts: 6268
PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2013 10:16 pm    Post subject: Dirk's Min-Max Off Season Reply with quote

For those non-geeks among us, Min-Maxing is a roleplaying concept where you do all you can to skate around rules, and take penalties that have little combat effect to make your character better in combat. A classic example is sacrificing a character's Intelligence or Charisma to beef up Strength.

For my purposes, here, it means trying to gain maximum effect with the minimum outlay (minimizing Free Agency and long-term cap-unfriendly deals). Drafting well (and fortunately) will obviously be key to this.

So, here we go:

Restructure Carr, to aid in cap space. Do not extend Romo (unless it's very long-term cap-friendly), plan to franchise him in 2014.

Cuts: Designate Free and Sensebaugh for June 1st, cut Spears, Connor, and Vickers. Total savings $14.8m. This, along with Carr's restructure and the cap savings from this year should allow us to make some modest signings.

Free agency: Sign Lemon and/or Sims as LB depth (planning on Carter moving inside to backup Lee, if necessary). Sign Costa. Sign Ronde Barber to hedge bets against younger starters at safety and bring in experience and leadership for helping DBs understand their roles in the Tampa 2.

Draft: Trade pick 18 with St. Louis for picks 22 and 78

22) Alex Okafor, DE - Competes with Crawford for starting LDE
47) Lane Johnson, OT - Projected starting RT
78 ) Larry Warford, G - Competes for one of two starting G spots
80) Robert Lester, S - Competes for one of two starting S spots
111) Mike Gillisee, RB - Backs up Demarco Murray
144) Jake Knott, OLB - Competes for Depth at LB
175) Zach Line, FB - FB/H-back (good receiving skills)

Notable UDFAs: Alex Carder, QB, Alec Lemon, WR, Sam Schwartzstein, C, Alex Hurst, OT

Best Guess Starting D-Line: Okafor, Ratliff, Hatcher, Ware
Crawford rotates through the entire line, Lissemore and Bass are depth inside

Best Guess Starting Oline: Smith, Warford, Costa, Leary, Johnson
Some combination of Schwartzstein, Bernadeau, Kowalski, and Arkin backup interior. Either Hurst or Parnell backs up both Tackle spots.

We've really hit the jackpot if: both Lester and Johnson turn out at Safety (Johnson played SS in college) and we can have two rangy ballhawks patrolling with Lee in deep 3rds
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Dboys88-82


Joined: 11 Jan 2011
Posts: 1761
PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2013 10:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

what happened to livings?
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Dirk Gently


Joined: 04 Jun 2008
Posts: 6268
PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2013 10:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If he earns his spot, he comes back. If he doesn't he goes. throw him in there with Bernardeau/Kowalski/Arkin, etc. but if we get Warford, I think he beats Livings out.
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Football Mensa


Joined: 13 Dec 2012
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Location: Texas via Louisiana and I love being Cajun...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2013 11:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No way no how on Lester. Dix was the star safety at Bama this year.
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Texas_OutLaw7


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2013 11:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So many things to love about this off-season. Trenches - Check. OLB - Check. RB - Check.

And you added a HOFer, very nice. Unlikely, but nice.
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Dboys88-82


Joined: 11 Jan 2011
Posts: 1761
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dirk Gently wrote:
If he earns his spot, he comes back. If he doesn't he goes. throw him in there with Bernardeau/Kowalski/Arkin, etc. but if we get Warford, I think he beats Livings out.


So you think Leary will be better than him next season? Im not saying that Livings is a great player or anything, but he was our second best offensive lineman this year ( i know not saying a whole lot), but Leary didnt see any action this season...theres probably a reason for that (still hope that he can develop, but not holding my breath either).
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Dirk Gently


Joined: 04 Jun 2008
Posts: 6268
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 1:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lester has great ball skills and has nearly Matt Johnson's level of production, except against top competition. 14 INTs in 3 years is significant production.

As for Leary, like I said, it's best guess. I know broaddus was down on Livings and the team is high enough on Leary (and Arkin) that they used valuable roster spots with no intention of playing them this season. They must see something they like, there. Whether it will pan out this year, or ever, I don't claim to know.
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matt79511


Joined: 10 Jul 2011
Posts: 3499
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't like production as a means of evaluating prospects. No scout uses stats, they use tape.

Still, "he's not even the best ____ on his team!" is an even worse means of evaluating someone. Are you really damning someone for playing for a program that recruits and produces tons of NFL-caliber talent? Lester's a perfectly good mid-round prospect.
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buckwild


Joined: 25 Jan 2011
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Location: Ft Worth, Tx
PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think that johnson won't last until the 2nd round as on CBS sportsline has him going in the mid 20's since Matthews and Lewan didn't come out.

I would rather look at Elam in the 1st rather than Jefferson in the 3rd as I have seen that he is not a good tackler and shys away from contact.

Rams aren't giving up a 2nd to move up 4 spots , but maybe a 3rd.

Want a sure tackler at Safety as the cowboys have been going cheap at safety since Darren Woodson retired.

I don't know why everyone wants a mauler at OG as the Cowboys run all the swing plays and counters. It would would make more sense to look at a more athletic player at OG early in the draft.
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Dirk Gently


Joined: 04 Jun 2008
Posts: 6268
PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

buckwild wrote:
I think that johnson won't last until the 2nd round as on CBS sportsline has him going in the mid 20's since Matthews and Lewan didn't come out.

I would rather look at Elam in the 1st rather than Jefferson in the 3rd as I have seen that he is not a good tackler and shys away from contact.

Rams aren't giving up a 2nd to move up 4 spots , but maybe a 3rd.

Want a sure tackler at Safety as the cowboys have been going cheap at safety since Darren Woodson retired.

I don't know why everyone wants a mauler at OG as the Cowboys run all the swing plays and counters. It would would make more sense to look at a more athletic player at OG early in the draft.


Warford has plenty of mobility, from what I'm reading. If Johnson isn,t there in the second I'd actually take Warford there and try to get one of the other RTs in the 3rd.

The pick I have the Rams giving up is their 3rd rounder.

Barrett jones is someone I'd love to get at 50, but I don't think he'll last to there, I don't think we have the ammo to trade up for him, and I think DE is more important, even with Ratliff gone, because we're ok with guys that can be serviceable inside (lissemore, hatcher, Crawford) but really low on guys that can rush from the end spots (right now only ware and Crawford, maybe Wilber).
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Dirk Gently


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bite-the-Bullet, minimum dead money version:

Restructure Carr as planned. Do not extend Romo.

Ask Free to take 50% pay cut or be designated for June 1. Cut Connor, Ratliff, Vickers, Spears, and Sensebaugh.

Sign minimum FA LB depth (Sims?)

Trade super bowl Winner pick 18 for picks 32 and 62

32) Barrett Jones, C/G/T
50) Jessie Williams, DT (1-tech)
62) Datone Jones, DE
80) Chris Faulk, OT
111) E. J. Manuel, QB
144) Ray Graham, RB
175) Michael Williams, TE

I know this doesn't address safety at all, but I think it does solid justice to both lines and, if Free plays ball, does so with ZERO dead money and nothing tied up in Romo (who may be extended in-season if things look good enough)


Next I'll do my all-in, swing for the fences one. Look for it this evening about 9:30 Dallas time.
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Dirk Gently


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Go Crazy All-In version:

Restructure Carr as planned. Sign Romo to a new deal. This brings us to cap neutral (our $5.5m carryover covers the Mara penalty).

Designate Free and Ratliff as June 1 cuts, Saving $12m

Cut Connor, Sensbaugh, Spears, and Vickers, creating a further $6.2m for a total of $18.2m cap space.

Sign Sebastian Vollmer, 5 years, $40m, $10m signing bonus, $20m guaranteed, $5.5m cap hit for 2013.

Sign Anthony Spencer, 5 years, $50m, $15m signing bonus, $30m guaranteed. $7.5m cap hit for 2013

Sign Ernie Sims to vet min for depth, cap hit $490k

Sign Costa, 2 yr, $3m, $500k signing bonus. $1m cap hit for 2013.

Draft:
18 ) Johnathan Jenkins, DT, (feel free to substitute Hankins, Richardson or Short, here)

47) Larry Warford, G

80) Phillip Thomas, S

111) Gerald Hodges, LB

144) Andre Ellington, RB

175) Braden Hansen, C
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Texas_OutLaw7


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like the draft a lot. But cutting Vickers for...?
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Dirk Gently


Joined: 04 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Texas_OutLaw7 wrote:
I like the draft a lot. But cutting Vickers for...?

not making $1.2m worth of impact.

Try some UDFA FBs and/or continue the McSurdy experiment.
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Texas_OutLaw7


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dirk Gently wrote:
Texas_OutLaw7 wrote:
I like the draft a lot. But cutting Vickers for...?

not making $1.2m worth of impact.

Try some UDFA FBs and/or continue the McSurdy experiment.


Bold. I like it.
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