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KC_Guy


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
Posts: 7093
Location: Brussels, Belgium
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:10 am    Post subject: Cap discussion Reply with quote

Some numbers getting public after teams had to declare how much they wish to roll over from unspent 2012 cap into 2013:

Quote:
Under the rules of the new collective bargaining agreement, teams had to designate how much money they wanted to carry over to the 2013 salary cap. The carryover provisions are new and important.

With the cap growing at only $300,000 a year, teams have to budget their cap over a multi-year basis. Last year's cap was $120.6 million, so general managers have to be smart about their spending.

The "haves'' are in good shape. The "have nots'' have to be creative. Thanks to the carryover, there is $350.7 million of cap room in 2013, but $200.3 million of carryover is part of that.

Eight teams, though, account for 79 percent of the total room. The Cincinnati Bengals saved $8.5 million of cap room in 2012 and made the playoffs for the second consecutive year. They have $55.1 million of room. The Cleveland Browns saved $14.3 million of room in 2012 and now have $48.9 million. After being tight against the cap in 2012, the Indianapolis Colts now have $46 million of room.

The Miami Dolphins have $35.8 million, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers $31.3 million, the Jacksonville Jaguars $22.1 million, the Buffalo Bills $20.6 million and the Tennessee Titans $19.4 million.

On the negative side, the New York Jets are $19.4 million over the cap. The Dallas Cowboys are $18.2 million over, the New Orleans Saints $14.7 million over and the Carolina Panthers $11.8 million over.


http://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId=8822266&i=TWT&w=1cikv&wjb

From what I hear from another source the Chiefs rolled over 14 M$ and have a total of 16 M$ available. Check that against the third-highest cash payroll in the league (that's what Clark Hunt said two about two weeks ago) and the Chiefs did a nice job in cap management. [Didn't I tell you a year ago that the Chiefs would have to keep approx. 10 M$ in 2012 cap space to be able to re-sign or replace their 2013 free agents?]

However, those numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt as a stand-alone planning factor. You need to balance them against the need to re-sign/replace high-cost players. Furthermore, starting this year, teams are obliged to spend a certain percentage of the cap in cash.

Thus cap management gets more and more complicated. But after all is said and done the Chiefs look in good shape with the room they have, especially if you take into account they should be able to free some more by releasing/renegotiating Tyson Jackson and Matt Cassel.

Looking ahead the impact of the rookie pay scale will have a significant effect especially on those teams drafting high. No more 60M$ contracts for #1 draft picks which used to create cap issues for years to come. So the Chiefs benefit from that new rule as well once they get Jackson's and Berry's rookie contracts off the books.
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bigschmadt00


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

OMG we're so cheap being middle of the pack in spending, at WORST.
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jimmydee


Joined: 22 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guys, with the HC, GM and coaches falling into place as I hoped they would and with a good cap psn., I'm beginning to feel warm and fuzzy bout 2013.....pretty sure it's NOT the Makers Mark this time.

Good job. as usual KC_GUY, with making numbers speak to us.
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KC_Guy


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Working on a cap spread sheet - guess I got the functionalities pretty straight.

However, need more details on a bunch of contracts - anyone willing to help?

And no, the data from rotoworld and spotrac are not detailed enough.

Here's what I need:

Arenas: perfomance based escalators. Due which year?
Berry: signing bonus
Cassel: signing bonus
Charles: signing bonus & escalators
Draughn: signing bonus (don't think there was much)
Jackson: complete breakdown of his first contract and the restructuring - have contradicting data here
Johnson: signing bonus, incentives
McCluster: incentives - due when?
Studebaker: signing bonus

Furthermore: which players did the Chiefs cut AFTER June 1, 2012.
Need contract data for those as well (especially signing bonus and guarateed money.
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Arrowhead86


Joined: 07 Dec 2004
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Location: Kansas City
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

KC_Guy wrote:
Working on a cap spread sheet - guess I got the functionalities pretty straight.

However, need more details on a bunch of contracts - anyone willing to help?

And no, the data from rotoworld and spotrac are not detailed enough.

Here's what I need:

Arenas: perfomance based escalators. Due which year?
Berry: signing bonus
Cassel: signing bonus
Charles: signing bonus & escalators
Draughn: signing bonus (don't think there was much)
Jackson: complete breakdown of his first contract and the restructuring - have contradicting data here
Johnson: signing bonus, incentives
McCluster: incentives - due when?
Studebaker: signing bonus

Furthermore: which players did the Chiefs cut AFTER June 1, 2012.
Need contract data for those as well (especially signing bonus and guarateed money.


Please dont take the lack of volunteers as a negative. It's really because I'd wager most of us view you as the resident go source for those sort of things, and I say that as a compliment.

I know personally if you don't know where to find them, I'd have very little chance to do so.

Thanks, as JD said above, for all you do informing this community.
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samsel23


Joined: 30 Sep 2008
Posts: 3206
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 7:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Arrowhead86 wrote:
KC_Guy wrote:
Working on a cap spread sheet - guess I got the functionalities pretty straight.

However, need more details on a bunch of contracts - anyone willing to help?

And no, the data from rotoworld and spotrac are not detailed enough.

Here's what I need:

Arenas: perfomance based escalators. Due which year?
Berry: signing bonus
Cassel: signing bonus
Charles: signing bonus & escalators
Draughn: signing bonus (don't think there was much)
Jackson: complete breakdown of his first contract and the restructuring - have contradicting data here
Johnson: signing bonus, incentives
McCluster: incentives - due when?
Studebaker: signing bonus

Furthermore: which players did the Chiefs cut AFTER June 1, 2012.
Need contract data for those as well (especially signing bonus and guarateed money.


Please dont take the lack of volunteers as a negative. It's really because I'd wager most of us view you as the resident go source for those sort of things, and I say that as a compliment.

I know personally if you don't know where to find them, I'd have very little chance to do so.

Thanks, as JD said above, for all you do informing this community.


I'll be able to help you out some. I'm good with numbers and have learned alot with the cap from you. Give me a couple days to hack out some details Wink
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KC_Guy


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ok, I think I got most of the information required. I'll discuss some of the unknowns at the end of this post. Nevertheless, thankful for any kind of information you can provide - some of the data I had to use need confirmation, in some places I had to revert to assumptions (which are built on information available on other players, see below).

The cap is said to be about 121 M$, however, final figures can only be provided once the 2012 season's books are closed. But I think it's a fair base to work from.

During pre-season only the 51 highest cap numbers count against the team cap. Nevertheless, prudent planning requires that you take into account additional expenses.

Let's kick it off:

The Chiefs currently have 46 players under contract, including 4 (former practice squad) players who signed future contracts (read: contracts that become regular contracts on the first day of the new League Year).

The total cap allocated for these contracts is about 102 M$. The biggest chunks: Tyson Jackson: 17.5 M$, Tamba Hali: 15.5 M$, Eric Berry: 10.1 M$, Matt Cassel: 9.8 M$, Brandon Flowers: 9.6 M$).

The Chiefs have (mostly likely) 9 draft picks. Based on the 2012 Rookie contract numbers, they will need close to 9 M$ in cap to get those guys under contract (cash numbers are different of course).

Undrafted Free Agents the Chiefs will sign will not be a factor, as their cap numbers will not be amongst the 51 richest contracts (I assume that they will receive signing boni of max. 5000 $).

The cap allocation for the 8 Practice Squad players will be slightly more than 1 M$.

The Chiefs have some dead (cap) money on the books (approx. 0.2 M$, half of that from the Gabe Miller contract, Gordon may cause some, then there is a whole bunch of UDFA and other camp players they released in August/September). Dead money is prorated signing bonus money from terminated contracts, that counts against future years. If a player is released after 1 June a prorated portion of the signing (or any option) bonus counts against the current year as if he played out his contract. The remainder of the signing bonus will count against the next League Year.

Finally, the Chiefs will have to pay their players for pre-season activities like workouts, OTAs, training camp. Offseason workouts and OTAs will require approx. 0.5 M$, training camp 4.7 M$.

The OTA sum will be charged against the Chiefs' cap the first day of the new League Year, the TC money on a weekly basis from the first day of TC until a week before the first regular season game.

This said the Chiefs are (according to my calculation) currently approx. 3 M$ under the cap, with contingencies set aside for the draft picks, offseason workouts, training camp and the practice squad. This number is pretty much in line with what has been reported, but may take into account more elements of the Chiefs' activities than the press releases.

Add to that approx. 14 M$ of rolled over cap and the Chiefs have 17 M$ of room to play with. In addition they can use parts of the TC contigency and the Practice Squad contingecy during the early offseason if they need extra money.

Here's the grain of salt:

I have no clue if any escalators hit in 2013. I think there will be some. To get an idea we need to look at how those escalators are counted against the cap.

Incentives determined to be "likely to be earned" count against the cap from the first day of the League Year they are to be paid (if earned). "Not likely to be earned" bonuses will be counted against the next League Year.

Whether or not an incentive/bonus is considered "likely to be earned" or not is basically based on a comparison of the threshold to be met to the performance a year before.

I see two areas where NLTBE bonuses earned in 2012 may count against the 2013 cap:

1. Jamaal Charles. As he did not play in 2011 any possible 2012 performance based bonus should be considered NLTBE - and thus count against the 2013 cap. And he had a pretty good year again, didn't he?

2. Pro Bowl. A Pro Bowl appearance is always considered NLTBE. With 5 guys going to Hawaii I think it's a fair assumption that at least some have a bonus due - which again will count against the 2013 cap.

Creating more cap:

I won't discuss restructuring contracts - that would be pure speculation. But I want to look at the Jackson and Cassel contracts. How much cap can be created by releasing those two guys?

Jackson:

projected 2013 cap: 17.47 M$
if released: 2.5 M$ (prorated 2009 option bonus, no other guaranteed money left)
saving: about 15M$

Cassel:

projected 2013 cap: 9.8 M$
if released: 3.95 M$ (remaining prorated signing/option bonus, could be spread out to 2 years if this release was declared a Jun 2 release)
saving: about 5.8 M$

Additional potential cap victims:

Boss (cap saving: 2.4 M$, cash saving: 2.4 M$)
Breaston (cap saving: 0.8 M$, cash saving 3.8 M$)
Studebaker (cap saving: 2 M$, cash saving 2 M$)
Succop (cap saving: 1.2 M$, cash saving: 2 M$)

Potentially worth to be considered for re-negotiation (not a friend of that as it just moves the issue to the right):

Hali
Flowers
Berry
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nicfre2011


Joined: 15 Mar 2011
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I want to make it clear, when I become the GM of an NFL team, one of my first hirings will be KC_Guy as my cap specialist.
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samsel23


Joined: 30 Sep 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nicfre2011 wrote:
I want to make it clear, when I become the GM of an NFL team, one of my first hirings will be KC_Guy as my cap specialist.


Only if you sign him as KC_Guy, I won't accept it as any other name Laughing

Brilliant work KC
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nicfre2011


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

samsel23 wrote:
nicfre2011 wrote:
I want to make it clear, when I become the GM of an NFL team, one of my first hirings will be KC_Guy as my cap specialist.


Only if you sign him as KC_Guy, I won't accept it as any other name Laughing

Brilliant work KC


Don't worry, I wouldn't dream of letting his real name, Milton Birkenshire, out to the media.

Wink
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jimmydee


Joined: 22 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All yawl toooo late. Already got a contract, case of Makers Mark and 2 dozen hand rolled premium Cuban cigars on the way to KC_Guy. Snooze ya loose!!!!

All jokin aside.....KC_Guy, you be the bomb. Thanks man. I know how much work that is and to put it into such clarity is an art. Thx, again for all of us. Wink
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KC_Guy


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
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Location: Brussels, Belgium
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jimmydee wrote:
All yawl toooo late. Already got a contract, case of Makers Mark and 2 dozen hand rolled premium Cuban cigars on the way to KC_Guy. Snooze ya loose!!!!

All jokin aside.....KC_Guy, you be the bomb. Thanks man. I know how much work that is and to put it into such clarity is an art. Thx, again for all of us. Wink


Think I need to talk to the DHS .. where do you have the Cubans from??
(btw: my humidor is freshly stacked - they are legal here Wink )
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Chiefs' cap situation just took a 3M$ hit.

According to Art 7, Section 6 of the new CBA there's a little thing called "Proven Performance Escalator" automatically (non-negotiably) added to each Rookie contract for Rookies drafted in Round 3 - 7.
This escalator is triggered when a Rookie plays

a) 35% of the offensive/defensive snaps in two of the three season prior to his fourth contract year;

or

b) 35% of the cumulative offensive/defensive snaps over the first three years of his contract.

The escalator raises the players' base pay to the level of the "ROFR - RFA tag" minus any incentives applicable for that year.

From the 2010 class Arenas, Asamoah, Lewis and Moeaki all qualified, thus raising their base pay from 555,000 $ to 1,323,000 $ each. (Berry and McCluster are not eligible as they were drafted in Round 1 and 2 respectively, Sheffield was released a year ago).

A little background: Under the old CBA players drafted in Round 3-7 usually received THREE year contracts. If they played out that contract they became restricted free agents. Under the new CBA the contract length is fixed to FOUR years. The Proven Performance escalator ensures that the players automatically receive the lowest RFA tender if a team retains them through the fourth year, thus offsetting the chance to negotiate a new contract under the old CBA.
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kcstomp63


Joined: 12 Jan 2010
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Location: Kansas
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

KC_Guy wrote:
The Chiefs' cap situation just took a 3M$ hit.

According to Art 7, Section 6 of the new CBA there's a little thing called "Proven Performance Escalator" automatically (non-negotiably) added to each Rookie contract for Rookies drafted in Round 3 - 7.
This escalator is triggered when a Rookie plays

a) 35% of the offensive/defensive snaps in two of the three season prior to his fourth contract year;

or

b) 35% of the cumulative offensive/defensive snaps over the first three years of his contract.

The escalator raises the players' base pay to the level of the "ROFR - RFA tag" minus any incentives applicable for that year.

From the 2010 class Arenas, Asamoah, Lewis and Moeaki all qualified, thus raising their base pay from 555,000 $ to 1,323,000 $ each. (Berry and McCluster are not eligible as they were drafted in Round 1 and 2 respectively, Sheffield was released a year ago).

A little background: Under the old CBA players drafted in Round 3-7 usually received THREE year contracts. If they played out that contract they became restricted free agents. Under the new CBA the contract length is fixed to FOUR years. The Proven Performance escalator ensures that the players automatically receive the lowest RFA tender if a team retains them through the fourth year, thus offsetting the chance to negotiate a new contract under the old CBA.


Arenas was drafted in the 2nd round as well, so that excludes him from this, correct?
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep, you're right - my fault.
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