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A Radical Off-Season Thought Process
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khodder


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
You're forgetting of course that Daryn Colledge is still owed guaranteed money. The restructure bonus does not qualify to satisfy that responsibility. Didn't under the old CBA either.


So how much guaranteed money is he owed.
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khodder


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AZPSquared wrote:
Ohrneberger at RG? No.


Why not, no worse than what we have now, not a huge number of options that we can actually afford.
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Yibbyl


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

khodder wrote:
Yibbyl wrote:
Bidwell would hate what it did to ticket sales.


How do we know it impacts ticket sales at all; I mean the starters on both sides of the football are much the same as they were in 2012 and with vast improvement at one spot on the OL.

I know this is not going to happen, but I honestly beleive it is the best long term option for this team.

Needed a minute to try to make sure I wasn't fixating on your tank the 2013 season comment...

OK, so you upgraded the LG spot and simultaneously downgraded the RG spot (Yes, I actually do think Snyder is better than Ohmygawdberger.) You've also decreased the depth of a notoriously injury-prone RB corps as well. I do like Klein, however, and even though he may not be able to call the D, performance-wise I'd say he's going to be an upgrade over Lenon. I'll take your word on Thomas, as I don't know that much about him, but expect to learn very soon, since I expect the Bills to switch back to the 3-4! Wink DL depth is very suspect to me, but that's my opinion. How will DD play? He was quite flaky at the end of this season. Is he going to be dependable? I hope so. I was already mentally preparing for Carter to start next year, that's how bizarre/alarming DD's behavior was to me. And I already mentioned Kolb's injury. I'd say the result is a net wash, assuming you could get those rookies. I don't see any real overall improvement in the quality of personnel and, barring injuries again, no real step backwards, I guess. That (hoping for few or only limited injuries) is quite a gamble though. It is long term thinking though, cap-wise.

I still think knowledgeable fans will see the off-season as weak, while noticing all the other teams' efforts to improve. As such, I expect even with a healthy Kolb the Cards would win 6 games under this scenario. The dismay the fans would feel (and they absolutely won't be looking at the financial benefits given years 2014 and later) would cause many of them to stay at home, hurting ticket sales.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
You're forgetting of course that Daryn Colledge is still owed guaranteed money. The restructure bonus does not qualify to satisfy that responsibility. Didn't under the old CBA either.


So how much guaranteed money is he owed.


About a million dollars. That would mean he's worth a couple hundred K (Give or take specifics) more to us on the roster than he is off it, about 6-8 hundred K if you include the salary of his replacement if we do as you suggest and choose an Ohrnberger type willing to play for the veterans minimum.

And as stated, you can move him to RG and upgrade that spot all at the same time. It's a no-brainer move.
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khodder


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
You're forgetting of course that Daryn Colledge is still owed guaranteed money. The restructure bonus does not qualify to satisfy that responsibility. Didn't under the old CBA either.


So how much guaranteed money is he owed.


About a million dollars. That would mean he's worth a couple hundred K (Give or take specifics) more to us on the roster than he is off it, about 6-8 hundred K if you include the salary of his replacement if we do as you suggest and choose an Ohrnberger type willing to play for the veterans minimum.

And as stated, you can move him to RG and upgrade that spot all at the same time. It's a no-brainer move.


OK then, don't cut Colledge (This season) and move on with it. Is that going to help this team up from the 2-14 team you were talking about earlier?
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khodder


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also the one thing this exercise has shown me is how badly Graves and company left our salary cap and contract situation.

We are going to get to a point, very soon, where Larry Fitzgerald is going to be far too expensive vs our cap to keep him. (like 16% of our cap hit being Fitz expensive, you reserve that kind of a hit for elite (Brady/Manning/Rodgers) Quaterbacks, not a player who relies on a QB to get them the football.
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DJ_Fka


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Didn't mention this before, loved the picks of Sims TE in the 4th, Thomas LB 3rd and your man crush Klien in the 5th.

With Warmack and another 2nd rounder, that is a darn good draft.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
You're forgetting of course that Daryn Colledge is still owed guaranteed money. The restructure bonus does not qualify to satisfy that responsibility. Didn't under the old CBA either.


So how much guaranteed money is he owed.


About a million dollars. That would mean he's worth a couple hundred K (Give or take specifics) more to us on the roster than he is off it, about 6-8 hundred K if you include the salary of his replacement if we do as you suggest and choose an Ohrnberger type willing to play for the veterans minimum.

And as stated, you can move him to RG and upgrade that spot all at the same time. It's a no-brainer move.


OK then, don't cut Colledge (This season) and move on with it. Is that going to help this team up from the 2-14 team you were talking about earlier?


Yes.

Next problem: You're doing nothing to try and help the QB position for 2013.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

khodder wrote:
Also the one thing this exercise has shown me is how badly Graves and company left our salary cap and contract situation.

We are going to get to a point, very soon, where Larry Fitzgerald is going to be far too expensive vs our cap to keep him. (like 16% of our cap hit being Fitz expensive, you reserve that kind of a hit for elite (Brady/Manning/Rodgers) Quaterbacks, not a player who relies on a QB to get them the football.


Yes and no.

Larry's deal definitely is a hinderance long term, I can't argue that but most of these other contracts are just facades that be adjusted with little issue. We'll be fine. Just stings to have that much money wrapped up into a guy who, as you correctly noted, is completely reliant on the QB position.
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khodder


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
Next problem: You're doing nothing to try and help the QB position for 2013.


I don't expect us to do that anyway. I don't think we are really going to upgrade with any rookies this year (unless we trade up for Smith, or hit Wilson at #7) and no cost effective Free Agents are out there. Keeping Hoyer in a backup role upgrades where we were with that position at the end of 2012.

I just don't see any realistic options for us picking up a QB that will upgrade this team in 2013.
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DJ_Fka


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Does Alex Smith factor in anywhere?

Also, if we keep Kolb (likely) or chase Smith (we should), we should go double TE more often.

Kolb loves tight ends, (see philly and houlser targets), Smith has done wonders with Davis and that other TE who's name escapes me atm, Walker i think.

If we draft Warmack in first, we should go Ertz or Eiffert in 2nd, or whoever is available or at least target Williams ARK or Sims MSU in the 4th.

Would help our offense immensely
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khodder


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
Yes and no.

Larry's deal definitely is a hinderance long term, I can't argue that but most of these other contracts are just facades that be adjusted with little issue. We'll be fine. Just stings to have that much money wrapped up into a guy who, as you correctly noted, is completely reliant on the QB position.


But are we not just pushing and pushing and pushing the issue if we keep restructureing salary into bonus? It makes it that much harder for us to get rid of a player down the line and it really does not help the cap issue any long term.
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khodder


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DJ_Fka wrote:
Does Alex Smith factor in anywhere?

Also, if we keep Kolb (likely) or chase Smith (we should), we should go double TE more often.

Kolb loves tight ends, (see philly and houlser targets), Smith has done wonders with Davis and that other TE who's name escapes me atm, Walker i think.

If we draft Warmack in first, we should go Ertz or Eiffert in 2nd, or whoever is available or at least target Williams ARK or Sims MSU in the 4th.

Would help our offense immensely


No way are we going to be able to pay Smith and Kolb.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
Next problem: You're doing nothing to try and help the QB position for 2013.


I don't expect us to do that anyway. I don't think we are really going to upgrade with any rookies this year (unless we trade up for Smith, or hit Wilson at #7) and no cost effective Free Agents are out there. Keeping Hoyer in a backup role upgrades where we were with that position at the end of 2012.

I just don't see any realistic options for us picking up a QB that will upgrade this team in 2013.


I'd like to use that 2nd round pick to address it, either through trade or with the pick itself.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
Yes and no.

Larry's deal definitely is a hinderance long term, I can't argue that but most of these other contracts are just facades that be adjusted with little issue. We'll be fine. Just stings to have that much money wrapped up into a guy who, as you correctly noted, is completely reliant on the QB position.


But are we not just pushing and pushing and pushing the issue if we keep restructureing salary into bonus? It makes it that much harder for us to get rid of a player down the line and it really does not help the cap issue any long term.


I'm not talking about roll backs, I'm talking about structuring contracts correctly the first time around by offsetting bonuses and creating deals that are easy to cut. Graves did that well, aside from Larry but we all know why that is. Larry had us by the cojones.
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