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A Radical Off-Season Thought Process
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khodder


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:53 pm    Post subject: A Radical Off-Season Thought Process Reply with quote

An idea of mine that has stemmed from the Cap Thread, and bear with me it is pretty radical, and the upshot of it would be basically writing off the 2013 league year to start fresh and new in 2014, void of terrible contracts that are doing nothing but holding this team back right now. It is going to involve a lot of player personnel movement

Cuts

Daryn Colledge - He has Cap hits of over $7M in each of the next two seasons, you only put up with that if you are getting elite production from that position, which we most certainly are not. The upshot of this that we save about 400-500K in cap this season, but the big hit is the $7.25M in cap savings in 2014.

Stewart Bradley - Again a player who has cap hits over the next three seasons of $6.5M, $7M and $7M elite production, not even close, special teamer, that about covers it. We save between $2.25-$3M this season depending on how the workout bonus is calculated and free up $7M vs the 2013 cap.

Early Doucet – At best the #4 WR on the team, only one year left on his contract, but we can save $2M vs the cap by cutting him. His value is at an all-time low on this team almost nil value.

Jeff King – The #2TE has not really lived up to his billing as a good blocking Tight End; We can save $1.5M on the cap for 2013.

Levi Brown – The Big Man gets cut for the second time in two years, all the guaranteed cash in his deal has been paid out (Signing Bonus + 2012 Salary) and we save 500-800K in the 2013 league year will while $7.5M vs the cap in 2014.

Adam Snyder – A Neutral Move this year, but we make $12M in cap savings over the final three years of his deal. Take the hit this year and then move on without him.

These 6 cuts only save us 6.6M vs the 2013 cap, but they save us $25M vs the cap in 2014.

These are the major cuts, we will get rid of others including the deadwood at the end of the roster and bring in some different bodies.

Restructures and extensions

Kerry Rhodes – Sign him to a new 3 year deal or what amounts to a 2 year extension with some money movement. I believe he is due $6M in cash this season, so we have to give him that much for him to consider the deal. Essentially what I would offer is a 3 year/$16M dollar deal. Pay him $1M in salary in 2013 with an $8M roster bonus in 2013. This puts his cap hit up $3M for the 2013 year, but it means we only have $7M to hit the cap across the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Which we can spread out with 4M (2014) and 3M (2015) in salaries in each of those years.

Kevin Kolb – This really is the big one, and I for one do not know what kind of deal he would be willing to accept, but I would look at using the same line of reasoning as I did with Kerry Rhodes. Give him a solid Roster Bonus in 2013 (With a guarantee he makes the roster) to save money against future caps while also saving vs the 2013 cap. We still have 11.6M of his money to hit the cap from previous bonuses, so this will need to be taken into account. Basically his 2013-2015 $2M signing bonus hits need to stay, as do his 2013-2016 $1.4M option bonus hits. Really big question is; how much of the $39M in salary Kolb is due over the next four years is he willing to forgo, or really how much of it are we going to get him to leave. So if you think we go higher or lower here let me know;

4 years/24M (15M on salaries left on the table) 2013, $1M in salary, $8M in roster Bonus, $2M signing Bonus, 1.4M Option Bonus. That leaves his Cap Hit for 2013 at 12.4 (Savings of $2.5M) and then we can pay out the next three years’ Salary in $5M chunks (2014 Cap hit of 8.4M, 2015 hit of $8.4M, 2016 hit of 6.4M) the cost of cutting him after any of those years would be, 2014 (Neutral), 2015 (5M savings), 2016 (5M Savings).

These two deals essentially cancel each other out. In 2013, but in 2014 but saves upwards of $5M vs the cap in each of the final years of the Kolb deal against the cap.

FA’s to Stay

Greg Toler – Close to Vet Min for 2-3 years
Rashad Johnson – Same as above
William Powell (ERFA)
Ronald Talley (ERFA)
Mike Adams – More Vet Min signings
James Sanders – Same Vet Min
Brian Hoyer – Vet Min
Nick Eason – Vet Min
LSH – 2M per over 3 years.

Those 9 guys probably hit the cap for a combined 10M in 2013.

We fill out the roster with hungry veterans who are going to come in on a minimum salary and play their heart out on ST’s with few defensive or offensive snaps. Remember most of these guys are going to be one year stop gap guys who are fighting for the chance to stay on the roster in 2014.

Draft

1 – KC/Geno Smith/QB
2 – JAX/Bjeorn Werner/DE
3 – OAK/Star Lotulelei/DT
4 – PHI/Luke Joeckel/OT
5 – DET/Barkevious Mingo/DE
6 – CLE/Damontrone Moore/DE

That leaves us in a position to draft Warmack, Wilson, Even a guy like Fisher or hope we get an offer to move further down in the draft.

For the purposes of this I am going to go with Warmack. 2nd round we trade a team wanting to trade up for a falling player (Jones??) and pick up a 2014 first round pick.

1 – ARI/Chance Warmack/OG
2 – Traded for 2014 First round Selection
3 – ARI/Chase Thomas/OLB
4 – ARI/Dion Sims/TE
5 – ARI/AJ Klein/ILB
6 – ARI/Manase Foketi/OT
7 – ARI/Patrick Lewis/OC
7(Comp) – ARI/Sean Renfree/QB

Not a flashy draft, we might be lucky to see Thomas available at our spot in the 3rd round (69), but nfldraftscout has him ranked as their 69th overall player in the draft so… Warmack is obvious, 2014 draft is going to be key for us in this strategy, someone pushing for a player they love could send this pick to us. Thomas is a fundamental pass rusher from Stanford would be a really nice pick. Sims is a huge man who is a great blocker with underrated hands. Klein is a smart ILB who can get the job done for us. Foketi is a small school big tackle worth a shot. Lewis is the most underrated aspect of the A&M line and Renfree is a QB project who may or may not make the roster depending on his showing in TC and preseason.

We are going to end up starting an OL of likely – Potter/Warmack/Sendlein/FA/Massie, the free agent will not be a long term solution, in fact it may be a guy like Ohrnberger coming off IR for the vet minimum.

Our overall team is not going to shape up a whole lot better than the 2012 unit, however if we can keep our backs healthy and commit to running the football we should have some better offensive success, especially if Kolb can play 16 games, and if he can’t at least we have Hoyer as the backup with one of Lindley/Renfree as the likely third guy.

The biggest upside of this scenario is the cap space cleared for the 2014 season and the two first round picks in the 2014 draft. We can trade up for an elite QB prospect if they decide to come out (Bridgewater) or we may actually be in a position to draft him with one of our own picks. We are giving an offensive line unit a chance to gel together with three very young players on it.

Defensively we retain 10 starters with the only loss being Lenon so we should expect a good performance from them, especially with the added pass rush of Thomas. Klein may be able to step in as a rookie and play the ILB or we might have to either get Reggie Walker up to speed or retain Lenon to call the defensive plays.

So there it is, I can all but guarantee it will not happen this way, but it is one, radical (Sort of), way that I would have to think about if I was in a decision making position. It is not like we have actually have cut a lot of production and talent off the roster, but we have shaved a hell of a lot of money, especially going forwards.
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JohnnyV


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I personally like it. I'm all for sacrificing next year to build toward potentially a great core on both sides in 2014.

However, you heard Keim at that pressure..."This is a retool, not a rebuild."

But yea I'd be all over it, especially with Warmack in the first. Man I love that guy.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't like it for a number of reasons, the biggest being that we punt the 2013 season.
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AZPSquared


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
I don't like it for a number of reasons, the biggest being that we punt the 2013 season.


I agree. We can compete next year. They need to lock down the oline, which in turn can help the QB. There's no need to trade the 2nd round pick.
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JohnnyV


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
I don't like it for a number of reasons, the biggest being that we punt the 2013 season.


The Division is loaded. PERIOD. San Francisco will be in year two of the Kapernick experience, and one has to believe he'll be even better under a third year of Jim Harbaugh. Seattle isn't losing anyone significant. Maybe their offense or defense takes a step back…maybe.

Finally, the Rams have a BOAT load of picks this coming April and already have a solid nucleous on defense that isn’t going anywhere. If they can improve their offensive line, which they will, and finally grab a WR or two, they'll a solid 9-7 team if not better.

What are we? We have no QB, our offensive line is the worst in football and could be one of the worst in league history and our RBs are injury prone and soft (Beanie).

Defensively, we have no air-apparent to Lenon, no one to place next to Daryl. Our OLB production is non-existent, and our run defense was one of the worst in football. Top that off with the aging safeties on the backend and Darnell being unhappy and you have a less than ideal situation. I don't care how good Calais, Daryl and Patrick are….they are three of 11.

So to recap, we don't have a quarterback anywhere near the level of Russell Wilson, Kapernick or even Bradford. Our offensive line is a mess with a pair of overpaid guards and talented, but still raw soon to be second year guys. We don't have a quality RB who can average over 4.0 while staying healthy all season. Our OLB can't rush the passer and our defense can't stop the run in a division that at the moment, is completely run heavy.

Oh yea, and we have no cap room.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Making it known up front that you're going to punt the season, which is kinda what this scenario is, will devastate our ability to build a quality coaching staff. Without a quality coaching staff, all that cap room and those 2 1st round picks lose a significant amount of value.
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Plucky


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm okay with all the cuts/restructures, the draft -eh- not a fan but who knows months from now what these players will be (I'm still doing my scouting lol). I'm going to be a realist and say even if we didn't punt next year we aren't winning the superbowl or probably even making the playoffs with this team and in this division. It is time to start fresh. In all honesty what does an average 2013 do for this team? Nothing! It will only dampen the future and cost us more money/less space/a roster with inferior players. And I wouldn't even miss the players we cut really. I say clear the cap build the line, add some defense, Go big 2014 and go draft a franchise QB!

Edit
the cuts only lose us 1-2 starters for next year and neither I would call quality players. Let other players/rookies gain experience


Last edited by Plucky on Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
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khodder


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
I don't like it for a number of reasons, the biggest being that we punt the 2013 season.


I don't think we in essence punt the season, we just don't target it. We are still going to have a heck of a defense and our offense with healthy backs and a healthy Kolb is going to take a huge step forward. This team personnel wise might not be any different that we put out in 2012, but if they stay healthy in key positions then is represents a monumental improvement. It also takes a lot of long term though processes into account. You can go through this 2013 offseason as a retooling process and then come out the other side in 2014 after a pair of first round picks and really challenge in that year.

We are not going to challenge for a playoff spot with Kolb at QB unless we have a strong running game, which is a very, very big long shot to just appear in 2013, it might come in 2014.

My expectations for success in the 2013 season are minimal, so why not look towards the long term path of the franchise. Maybe sacrifice one year here to get 8-10 years of playoffs shortly after.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JohnnyV wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
I don't like it for a number of reasons, the biggest being that we punt the 2013 season.


Oh yea, and we have no cap room.


Overdramatic, especially beings as a few of these moves hinder our 2013 cap room.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
I don't like it for a number of reasons, the biggest being that we punt the 2013 season.


I don't think we in essence punt the season, we just don't target it. We are still going to have a heck of a defense and our offense with healthy backs and a healthy Kolb is going to take a huge step forward. This team personnel wise might not be any different that we put out in 2012, but if they stay healthy in key positions then is represents a monumental improvement. It also takes a lot of long term though processes into account. You can go through this 2013 offseason as a retooling process and then come out the other side in 2014 after a pair of first round picks and really challenge in that year.

We are not going to challenge for a playoff spot with Kolb at QB unless we have a strong running game, which is a very, very big long shot to just appear in 2013, it might come in 2014.

My expectations for success in the 2013 season are minimal, so why not look towards the long term path of the franchise. Maybe sacrifice one year here to get 8-10 years of playoffs shortly after.


I state again, this will devastate our ability to build a quality coaching staff. That makes all of this, literally, moot.
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khodder


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
Making it known up front that you're going to punt the season, which is kinda what this scenario is, will devastate our ability to build a quality coaching staff. Without a quality coaching staff, all that cap room and those 2 1st round picks lose a significant amount of value.


It really depends on whether you consider it a punt. We are significantly upgrading the OL from what they showed up in the first eight weeks on 2012, we are significantly upgrading the QB spot from what we showed over the final 11 weeks of the season. We are likely putting a better body out there at RB. Our WR's and TE's are going to be the same if not a little better.

Our defense is going to retain 10 starters, and the only one we lose is the worst of the bunch. We retain are #3 and #4 corners, we retain our #3 safety, we retain our 4th and 5th DL players and we pick up a very versatile pass rusher who could play snaps at ILB in our defense.

Is this really a punted season? It is not like we are cutting Dockett and trading Fitzgerald. This team is going to have a similar quality even with the 6 players we cut, so all I am really doing is accelerating the pain into this season, maybe sacrificing a little bit of quality in terms of the depth we can bring in via FA.

Maybe I worded it wrong by saying we "write off the 2013" league year, because in essense I think we are headed that way anyway, so why not bring a little extra pain forward to 2013 so that we can have the benefits in 2014 and onwards.
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khodder


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
JohnnyV wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
I don't like it for a number of reasons, the biggest being that we punt the 2013 season.


Oh yea, and we have no cap room.


Overdramatic, especially beings as a few of these moves hinder our 2013 cap room.


The totality of them cuts and restructures is a gain of about $6M in cap space in 2013 while losing players of poor quality.
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khodder


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
I state again, this will devastate our ability to build a quality coaching staff. That makes all of this, literally, moot.


Maybe, maybe not, hire the coaching staff them do this. They are essentially taking over the 2012 Cardinals with upgrade at LG, Upgrade at QB, Upgrade at RB.

Also this is "literally" moot because our front office would never think of doing this. For some crazy reason they think the likes of Colledge and Snyder are NFL Quality starters.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
Making it known up front that you're going to punt the season, which is kinda what this scenario is, will devastate our ability to build a quality coaching staff. Without a quality coaching staff, all that cap room and those 2 1st round picks lose a significant amount of value.


It really depends on whether you consider it a punt. We are significantly upgrading the OL from what they showed up in the first eight weeks on 2012, we are significantly upgrading the QB spot from what we showed over the final 11 weeks of the season. We are likely putting a better body out there at RB. Our WR's and TE's are going to be the same if not a little better.

Our defense is going to retain 10 starters, and the only one we lose is the worst of the bunch. We retain are #3 and #4 corners, we retain our #3 safety, we retain our 4th and 5th DL players and we pick up a very versatile pass rusher who could play snaps at ILB in our defense.

Is this really a punted season? It is not like we are cutting Dockett and trading Fitzgerald. This team is going to have a similar quality even with the 6 players we cut, so all I am really doing is accelerating the pain into this season, maybe sacrificing a little bit of quality in terms of the depth we can bring in via FA.

Maybe I worded it wrong by saying we "write off the 2013" league year, because in essense I think we are headed that way anyway, so why not bring a little extra pain forward to 2013 so that we can have the benefits in 2014 and onwards.


Bolded: Same response. It will devastate our ability to build a decent coaching staff. Nobody will knowingly sign up for 2-14 because nobody can turn 2-14 into something better.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
I state again, this will devastate our ability to build a quality coaching staff. That makes all of this, literally, moot.


Maybe, maybe not, hire the coaching staff them do this. They are essentially taking over the 2012 Cardinals with upgrade at LG, Upgrade at QB, Upgrade at RB.

Also this is "literally" moot because our front office would never think of doing this. For some crazy reason they think the likes of Colledge and Snyder are NFL Quality starters.


Bolded: Oh, so you're going to be dishonest about your intentions to your staff? I'm sure that will go over well.
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