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The playoff hunt thread.
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13370
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:23 pm    Post subject: The playoff hunt thread. Reply with quote

Just a little tracker as the NFL season goes along.

Current NFC Standings:
Atlanta Falcons 8-0
Chicago Bears 7-1
San Francisco 49ers 6-2
New York Giants 6-3
Green Bay Packers 6-3
Seattle Seahawks 5-4
Minnesota Vikings 5-4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-4
Detroit Lions 4-4
Arizona Cardinals 4-5
Philadelphia Eagles 3-5
Dallas Cowboys 3-5
New Orleans Saints 3-5
St. Louis Rams 3-5
Washington Redskins 3-6
Carolina Panthers 2-6

My end of the year projections
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=501543
Quote:
New York Giants 12-4 (7)
Dallas Cowboys 11-5 (10)
Washington Redskins 7-9 (11)
Philadelphia Eagles 3-13 (28)

Green Bay Packers 13-3 (3)
Chicago Bears 11-5 (9)
Detroit Lions 7-9 (20)
Minnesota Vikings 5-11 (23)

Atlanta Falcons 10-6 (16)
Carolina Panthers 9-7 (8)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8 (15)
New Orleans Saints 7-9 (14)

Seattle Seahawks 12-4 (5)
San Francisco 49ers 12-4 (6)
St. Louis Rams 8-8 (12)
Arizona Cardinals 4-12 (21)


Packers: lost SF, won Chi, lost Sea
Remaining schedule: @ Lions, @ Giants, Vikings, Lions, @ Bears, Titans, @ Vikings

Falcons:
Remaining schedule: @ Saints, Cardinals, @ Buccaneers, Saints, @ Panthers, Giants, @ Lions, Buccaneers

Bears: lost GB
Remaining schedule: Texans, @ 49ers, Vikings, Seahawks, @ Vikings, Packers, @ Cardinals, @ Lions

49ers: won GB, lost NYG, won Sea
Remaining schedule: Rams, Bears, @ Saints, @ Rams, Dolphins, @ Patriots, @ Seahawks, Cardinals

Giants: won SF
Remaining schedule: @ Bengals, Packers, @ Redskins, Saints, @ Falcons, @ Ravens, Eagles

Seahawks: won GB, lost SF, won MN
Remaining schedule: Jets, @ Dolphins, @ Bears, Cardinals, @ Bills, 49ers, Rams

Vikings: won SF, lost Sea
Remaining schedule: Lions, @ Bears, @ Packers, Bears, @ Rams, @ Texans, Packers
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incognito_man


Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 31653
Location: Madison
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I did the playoff generator and think I ended up with:

1 Falcons - 14-2
2 49ers - 12-4
3 Packers - 12-4
4 Giants - 11-5
5 Bears - 12-4
6 Seahawks - 10-6

Gives us a route of Sea, SF, ATL/CHI/NYG
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13370
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

incognito_man wrote:
I did the playoff generator and think I ended up with:

1 Falcons - 14-2
2 49ers - 12-4
3 Packers - 12-4
4 Giants - 11-5
5 Bears - 12-4
6 Seahawks - 10-6

Gives us a route of Sea, SF, ATL/CHI/NYG


I think the teams are pretty much in stone for the NFC. Just the order left to be decided. I doubt the Falcons lose all but two games like my formula predicted but those wins near the end of the year in the NFC South are going to be too close for comfort for the Falcons.
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MathMan


Joined: 10 Oct 2007
Posts: 21350
Location: wisconsin
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

incognito_man wrote:
I did the playoff generator and think I ended up with:

1 Falcons - 14-2
2 49ers - 12-4
3 Packers - 12-4
4 Giants - 11-5
5 Bears - 12-4
6 Seahawks - 10-6

Gives us a route of Sea, SF, ATL/CHI/NYG


A rout as well.
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I Am Rodgers


Joined: 19 Jan 2009
Posts: 7207
Location: New Jersey
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

justo wrote:

I think the teams are pretty much in stone for the NFC. Just the order left to be decided.


Disagree. I could see the Bucs/Saints taking the wildcard from whoever doesn't win the NFC West. Only problem is the Seahawks 2nd half schedule looks like cake, but I don't think they are better than either the Saints or Bucs. 49ers second half schedule looks tougher than the Hawks. It'll be interesting. I don't think this season is done unfolding yet.
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stallyns wrote:
Good thing for talky-talk Harbaugh he has an outstanding citizen/player like Aldon Smith on his team and not a classless hooligan like Clay Matthews.
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KManX89


Joined: 25 Oct 2012
Posts: 1905
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Am I the only one who thinks the Bears might end up taking the division here? Of the remaining games on their schedule (which is, ironically, their next 2: vs Houston and then @ San Fran in week 11), there's only 2, maybe 3 (including our game at Soldier Field) I could see as potential losses (and they won't lose all 3 "swing" games methinks), that leaves them at 13-3 or 12-4 at the very worst. Meaning, we would have to not lose a single game from here on out if we are to have any chance, or at worst, win all but 1 of our remaining games on our schedule, and the games @ NYG and CHI I (sadly) could easily mark down as potential losses (though I predict we'll win at least 1 of the 2 games, if not both of them), which is another reason why the blown Seattle call hurts so much (thankfully, it doesn't appear as if it'll cost us a playoff seed at this point, barring a huge late season meltdown from us).

So, with me going by my head, and not my heart:

1. Atlanta (14-2)
2. Chicago (13-3) (call me crazy)
3. San Fran (12-4)
4. NYG (11-5)
5. Green Bay (12-4)
6. Seattle (10-6)

SF has already dropped 2 games, and have 3 tough games remaining (@ SEA, @ NE, vs. CHI), I could see at least 2 of those games being losses. CHI has HOU, @ SF and us at home as their big 3; like SF's, I only see 1 or 2 of those being losses. Atlanta's 2 losses I have coming @ NE (they're playing better, plus they'll be pumped and motivated playing against their bitter division rivals), and @ TB (playing better, but I think will fall short of making a playoff push, since they have a tough schedule from here on out), NYG I have losing @ ATL and then 1 of either @ BAL or vs. us at home (our big payback game), though I don't think they'll lose both (though this is based on my most conservative estimates on a game-by-game basis).

So, basically, our route to the SB goes through the Meadowlands, Atlanta (I have SF beating SEA in the divisional round in my simulation, leaving us with the Dirty Birds again **they must be creaming themselves at this point**), and then either Chicago or San Fran in the NFCCG. If it wasn't for "the call" we wouldn't have to go on the road and win 3 straight again to make it to the SB, but that "game," be it as it may, unfortunately puts us in a bad spot in terms of seeding. I could definitely see Chicago winning the division over us now, unfortunately, barring a late season meltdown.
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13370
PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2012 3:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Atlanta Falcons 8-1
Chicago Bears 7-2
San Francisco 49ers 6-2-1
New York Giants 6-4

Green Bay Packers 6-3
Seattle Seahawks 6-4

Minnesota Vikings 6-4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-4
New Orleans Saints 4-5
Dallas Cowboys 4-5
Detroit Lions 4-5
Arizona Cardinals 4-5
St. Louis Rams 3-5-1
Philadelphia Eagles 3-6
Washington Redskins 3-6
Carolina Panthers 2-7

Falcons:
Remaining schedule: Cardinals, @ Buccaneers, Saints, @ Panthers, Giants, @ Lions, Buccaneers

Bears: lost GB
Remaining schedule: @ 49ers, Vikings, Seahawks, @ Vikings, Packers, @ Cardinals, @ Lions

49ers: won GB, lost NYG, won Sea
Remaining schedule: Bears, @ Saints, @ Rams, Dolphins, @ Patriots, @ Seahawks, Cardinals

Giants: won SF
Remaining schedule: Packers, @ Redskins, Saints, @ Falcons, @ Ravens, Eagles

Packers: lost SF, won Chi, lost Sea
Remaining schedule: @ Lions, @ Giants, Vikings, Lions, @ Bears, Titans, @ Vikings

Seahawks: won GB, lost SF, won MN
Remaining schedule: @ Dolphins, @ Bears, Cardinals, @ Bills, 49ers, Rams

Vikings: won SF, lost Sea
Remaining schedule: @ Bears, @ Packers, Bears, @ Rams, @ Texans, Packers
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13370
PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2012 3:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How my formula thinks the season is going to turn out
1) Green Bay Packers 13-3
2) Seattle Seahawks 12-4
4) New York Giants 11-5
6) Atlanta Falcons 10-6

3) San Francisco 49ers 11-4-1
5) Chicago Bears 11-5

Minnesota Vikings 6-10

Playoffs:
WC: San Francisco>Atlanta
WC: Chicago<New York Giants
DV: San Francisco<Green Bay
DV: New York Giants<Seattle
CF: Seattle<Green Bay
SB: Denver>Green Bay
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Sandybaby716


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 3645
Location: Rhode Island
PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2012 4:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

right now, after this week, i see it

1. Packers 13-3
2. Falcons 12-4
3. 49ers 11-4-1
4. Cowboys 9-7
5. Seahawks 11-5
6. Bears 11-5

Seahawks beat bears for that tiebreaker.

I think the Bears beat the 49ers. Seahawks beat Cowboys.
We beat the Bears. Seahawks beat Falcons.
We beat Seahawks.

AFC is all but decided. I see it
1. Texans
2. Broncos
3. Pats
4. Steelers
5. Colts
6. Ravens

Ravens beat Pats. Steelers beat Colts.
Texans beat Ravens. Broncos beat Steelers.
Broncos beat Texans.

the Owl has us versus the Broncos. I like our odds.
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wgbeethree wrote:
In all fairness it is kind of rude to just lay injured at their feet while the Lions defensive players are trying to hold a completely unrelated dance party.

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I Am Rodgers


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 9:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bumping this so Justo updates it.
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Good thing for talky-talk Harbaugh he has an outstanding citizen/player like Aldon Smith on his team and not a classless hooligan like Clay Matthews.
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13370
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 12:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I Am Rodgers wrote:
Bumping this so Justo updates it.
I'll post the league wide stuff tonight but I know it will still have GB winning out the rest of the season. I think it will have GB losing in the 2nd round to SF or NYG though.
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driftwood


Joined: 20 Aug 2008
Posts: 6511
Location: Milwaukee
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 12:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

justo wrote:
I think it will have GB losing in the 2nd round to SF or NYG though.


teams that are built to beat us... go figure

the huge window of playoff appearances will always be here as long as 12 is our QB... but the SB windows is all boarded up until this team figures out how to stop being so 1 dimensional.


going to be the favre era all over again...1 superbowl win & then a decade of talented teams underachieving when it matters most
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Sandybaby716


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 3645
Location: Rhode Island
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

driftwood wrote:
justo wrote:
I think it will have GB losing in the 2nd round to SF or NYG though.


teams that are built to beat us... go figure

the huge window of playoff appearances will always be here as long as 12 is our QB... but the SB windows is all boarded up until this team figures out how to stop being so 1 dimensional.


going to be the favre era all over again...1 superbowl win & then a decade of talented teams underachieving when it matters most


I strongly disagree. There is no guarantee we face either San Fran or NYG in the playoffs. And there is no guarantee they win. We were one dimensional when we won two years ago. We almost missed the playoffs that season. I just can't stand the Chicken Little stuff when we're 7-4 and just lost our first blowout.

Playoff picture as I see it:

1. San Fran: 12-3-1
2. Atlanta: 12-4
3. GB: 12-4
4. NYG: 10-6
5. Chicago: 11-5
6. Seattle/Tampa/NO/Minny: 9-7

We beat the six seed.
Crush Atlanta.
Play the team that emerges from the NYG/San Fran/Chicago bracket. I hope it's the Bears, if not I hope it's the 9ers. Kaep should still be starting and he can be exploited by Woodson and our deep defensive backfield. Not too scared of the Giants; people forget we beat them in their house just last season.
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wgbeethree wrote:
In all fairness it is kind of rude to just lay injured at their feet while the Lions defensive players are trying to hold a completely unrelated dance party.

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driftwood


Joined: 20 Aug 2008
Posts: 6511
Location: Milwaukee
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sandybaby716 wrote:
driftwood wrote:
justo wrote:
I think it will have GB losing in the 2nd round to SF or NYG though.


teams that are built to beat us... go figure

the huge window of playoff appearances will always be here as long as 12 is our QB... but the SB windows is all boarded up until this team figures out how to stop being so 1 dimensional.


going to be the favre era all over again...1 superbowl win & then a decade of talented teams underachieving when it matters most


Not too scared of the Giants; people forget we beat them in their house just last season.


im not scared of any team specifically more than another... the sad part is im scared of every team at any given moment...

whose to say we don't lay another egg against a team(s) we should beat in the next 5 games?

should we win out the rest of the year on paper? yes... will we? who knows

we let an overrated garbage colts team past us because we have 0 killer instinct... i don't care what they have done record wise, they will do nothing come January, just like the packers...

were a 1 dimensional offensive dome team playing outdoors & we will struggle in more than 1 of our remaining 3 home games, you can quote me on that

am i overeacting? maybe... i highly doubt we will get worked like we did last night for a long long time (this team doesn't lay down like that often) but it wont matter if we lose by 1 point against the 9ers or the giants in the playoffs, the fact that we cant beat those teams straight up is worrisome

a blind person listening to the games on the radio could tell you this team is as predictable as the sun is hot

things need to change before we start thinking about deep playoff runs again... or we need to hope that these elite team lay an egg against us for once instead of the other way around

NFC version of the chargers, here we come!!!!


Last edited by driftwood on Mon Nov 26, 2012 3:03 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Packerraymond


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Team Im most afraid of is us, there isn't a team in the NFL that can even hang with us when we play like we did in Houston and Chicago. That team ever decides to show up again, Im fully confident.

The thing is, with a confident team that is full of "leaders" we continually show up and play soft, unemotional, without effort and skate by with a close win. The team that played the 49ers, Colts, Seahawks, Jags, Lions and Giants shows up and we are one and done, because that team isn't even playoff worthy. The sad part is, I don't have the slightest clue who to blame for the fact that our best product has shown up for 2/11 games thus far. Question
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