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Pluto nails the QB situation
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Entropy


Joined: 16 Jul 2012
Posts: 2736
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 5:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UKClevelander wrote:
duke2056 wrote:

However, the entire argument changes when we get a new coach, and also if we get a new GM..


Judging by the rumours it looks like we clean house from Monday. With a new GM/coach duo coming in my first thought would be they would want "their" man (be it a trade or draft).

I have a question which I am not sure if it can be answered easily or not:

What is the % of a new GM/coach duo sticking with the incumbent QB? From my patchy memory I think the Falcons drafted Ryan after a new HC/GM but I don't know about any other examples to help.


I'll do some research and let you know.

First, I'll look at teams that drafted a QB in the first round, then dumped him in year 2.

Then I'll do the same with 2nd round QBs.
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DawgSoldier


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 5:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UKClevelander wrote:
duke2056 wrote:

However, the entire argument changes when we get a new coach, and also if we get a new GM..


Judging by the rumours it looks like we clean house from Monday. With a new GM/coach duo coming in my first thought would be they would want "their" man (be it a trade or draft).

I have a question which I am not sure if it can be answered easily or not:

What is the % of a new GM/coach duo sticking with the incumbent QB? From my patchy memory I think the Falcons drafted Ryan after a new HC/GM but I don't know about any other examples to help.


Here's the thing, IMO Geno Smith is the top prospect in the Draft. VS the same conference that Weeden played in Smith was meh at best. Ergo Weeden is a better prospect than the entire class in this years draft.

Ryan Mallett rumours have surfaced as well as Alex Smith rumours. Smith IMO is the only some what possible option that could upgrade the QB spot IMO. And Smith in Cleveland with like his 8th or so OC is suspect as well.

Point being the best case is to roll with Weeden one more year IMO.
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UKClevelander


Joined: 03 Sep 2012
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Entropy; I fear it will be a lot of work but I would be very interested (and I suspect slightly fearful of the result).

Dawg; I completely agree with your assessment. I didn't love the Weeden pick last year but I feel we need to give the guy one more season for the fact that there is no clear upgrade on offer.
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Entropy


Joined: 16 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ok UKClevelander,

Going back to 1999, there were 41 QBs drafted in the 1st round...all kinds of suck, by the way. None of them were canned after their rookie season.

Cade McNown even got 2 seasons.

Second round QB going back to 1999, 16 "QBs" since 1999:

John Beck was out of football after his rookie season with the 2007 Miami Dolphins "QB Carosel", then came back in 2011 to stink for the Redskins too (never won a game, career 0-7)

Pat White was out of football after his rookie year, but he was drafted to be a "slash" type.

Brian Brohm was out of football after his 2nd year, since he couldn't even make it as a backup.

…that’s it

My conclusion is that a 1st or 2nd round QB would need to suck to the point that should not even be playing in the NFL in order to be traded or cut after his rookie season.

There is NO argument that says Weeden is anywhere near that category.
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Entropy


Joined: 16 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UKClevelander wrote:
Thanks Entropy; I fear it will be a lot of work but I would be very interested (and I suspect slightly fearful of the result).

Dawg; I completely agree with your assessment. I didn't love the Weeden pick last year but I feel we need to give the guy one more season for the fact that there is no clear upgrade on offer.


If you want more, let me know Very Happy
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Ether


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Entropy wrote:


So people that think either "Weeden is the man" or "Weeden sucks" would have more insight? They wouldn't be lazy?

The situation is "we don't know enough" for either opinion. That's what he was saying.

That's good insight and it wasn't lazy.

Being "noncommittal" is absolutely appropriate when committing to either extreme is unfounded.

Now, if Weeden plays this way next year with more experienced receivers, a healthier RB, a more experienced line, and a better defense, THEN there will be a foundation to say "He Sucks"...and if he clearly plays better next year, for any reason, there will be a foundation to say "He's the guy".


I don't want his opinion, I want good journalism. He has looked at stats that are easily available on ESPN (although the throwing deep stats were an okay touch) and gave a cookie cutter opinion on Brandon Weeden. Nothing he said in that article is coming from a perspective I haven't heard from Browns fans before.

It's like he's writing sports editorials instead of a sports articles.
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Entropy


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ether wrote:
Entropy wrote:


So people that think either "Weeden is the man" or "Weeden sucks" would have more insight? They wouldn't be lazy?

The situation is "we don't know enough" for either opinion. That's what he was saying.

That's good insight and it wasn't lazy.

Being "noncommittal" is absolutely appropriate when committing to either extreme is unfounded.

Now, if Weeden plays this way next year with more experienced receivers, a healthier RB, a more experienced line, and a better defense, THEN there will be a foundation to say "He Sucks"...and if he clearly plays better next year, for any reason, there will be a foundation to say "He's the guy".


I don't want his opinion, I want good journalism. He has looked at stats that are easily available on ESPN (although the throwing deep stats were an okay touch) and gave a cookie cutter opinion on Brandon Weeden. Nothing he said in that article is coming from a perspective I haven't heard from Browns fans before.

It's like he's writing sports editorials instead of a sports articles.


I think I get ya, you wanted him to talk more about the future, right?

Oh, and I posted a similar, but less involved, "deep passes" look back when some were complaining about Shurmur not going deep enough (if you don't mind me saying). But I did like that too.
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KamTrus20


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I want to stick with Weeden until Marcus Mariotta comes out Laughing
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NateDawg


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 1:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think that the bottom-line with our off-season at this position is probably going to be pretty simple. With a new group in the front office and on the coaching staff who are probably less than impressed with Weeden, they'll be looking elsewhere. They probably see a 29 year old rookie who has some abilities but also has some obvious weaknesses. They are going to make an effort to upgrade at the position. I think it's possible that Weeden is back under center next year, but only as a fallback if they are unable to get anyone better. He's the best on the roster right now, and there aren't that many on the market who are better. I don't like anyone in the first round at the position, so I think it's possible that he's back, by default, as our starter.
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UKClevelander


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 6:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Entropy; I suspect many of those poor QB's had at least one of the HC or GM who drafted them still around for that second season.

It may be impossible to find but I was interested if QB's already drafted highly got another chance if a new GM/HC combo turned up.
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duke2056


Joined: 21 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 6:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UKClevelander wrote:
duke2056 wrote:

However, the entire argument changes when we get a new coach, and also if we get a new GM..


Judging by the rumours it looks like we clean house from Monday. With a new GM/coach duo coming in my first thought would be they would want "their" man (be it a trade or draft).

I have a question which I am not sure if it can be answered easily or not:

What is the % of a new GM/coach duo sticking with the incumbent QB? From my patchy memory I think the Falcons drafted Ryan after a new HC/GM but I don't know about any other examples to help.


I think the % is pretty irrelevant, cause generally when a team's coach and GM are fired it is because they were losing. Chances are if you have a good QB you won't be a losing team on a consistent basis, so you aren't going to clean house firing everyone.

Off hand I would say the % is very low, but I would be willing to bet the vast majority of those teams had crappy QBs.

For example, if the Chargers clean house are they going to get rid of Phillip Rivers?? No
If the Cardinals clean house, would they get rid of Skelton, Lindley, and Kolb and bring in someone new?? Yeah, pretty likely.
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Zero chance the Browns draft a QB at pick 4, or trade up for a QB.

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LETSGOBROWNIES


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've said this previously and I'll continue to say it until proven wrong.

Until this joke of a franchise is willing to give a head coach, OC and a reasonably talented QB 3-4 years together in the same system, we'll continue to have the same problems.

Giving a new OC/HC 1-2 years and a QB a one year audition, as a rookie/2nd year player, to be a 'stud' is never going to work.

Hopefully Banner understands that.

As to the prospects this year, I'll take Weeden over all of them.
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ditchdigger


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

LETSGOBROWNIES wrote:
As to the prospects this year, I'll take Weeden over all of them.


Seconded.

I probably wouldn't mind spending a 4th on a developmental guy/backup to replace McCoy, but only if Thad Lewis completely craps the bed tomorrow.
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DawgSoldier


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ditchdigger wrote:
LETSGOBROWNIES wrote:
As to the prospects this year, I'll take Weeden over all of them.


Seconded.

I probably wouldn't mind spending a 4th on a developmental guy/backup to replace McCoy, but only if Thad Lewis completely craps the bed tomorrow.


Well with JosH Johnson Thad Lewis Colt McCoy & Brandon Weeden on the Roster. Who isn't a developmental QB? And Why do the Browns need more?

Personally some developmental QB(s) are going to fall out of the draft IMO. Priority UDFA's is how I would add a QB from this class. That way you save the draft pick for a player you actually WANT seeing the field soon.
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Adopt a Brown: QB Brandon Weeden
247/433 57% 2820yds 6.5avg 13 TD 15 Int
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ditchdigger


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DawgSoldier wrote:
ditchdigger wrote:
LETSGOBROWNIES wrote:
As to the prospects this year, I'll take Weeden over all of them.


Seconded.

I probably wouldn't mind spending a 4th on a developmental guy/backup to replace McCoy, but only if Thad Lewis completely craps the bed tomorrow.


Well with JosH Johnson Thad Lewis Colt McCoy & Brandon Weeden on the Roster. Who isn't a developmental QB? And Why do the Browns need more?

Personally some developmental QB(s) are going to fall out of the draft IMO. Priority UDFA's is how I would add a QB from this class. That way you save the draft pick for a player you actually WANT seeing the field soon.


I don't think Josh Johnson or Colt McCoy belong in the NFL, and Weeden needs a viable veteran backup that can actually challenge him like Matt Moore.

Lewis is likely to be gone, because he was Shurmur's pet project (was originally signed as a UDFA in St. Louis while Shrumur was OC there).

I acutually don't WANT my 4th round and later picks seeing the field right away. That's the sign of a team lacking depth, and I'd prefer my team to have some depth that didn't involve rookies.

The only players I would WANT on the field right away are the 1st round pick and maybe the 3rd round pick. We will have enough draft picks in 2013 after compensatory picks are added to afford to draft a developmental QB.

And given our recent history of 4th round picks, I think it's safe to assume they won't have much of an impact anyway.
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