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Longhorns90
Joined: 28 Oct 2009
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Location: Austin, TX
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 Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 5:18 am Post subject: Playoff Picture |
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It's about that time of year, right? Though it's much nicer for the question to be more 'when can we secure homefield' rather than 'can we get in'?
The earliest we can secure home-field advantage is Week 14. To do that we would need for:
Texans must win all games (SCHED: JAX, @DET, @TEN, @NE)
Broncos must lose once (SCHED: SD, @KC, TB, @OAK)
Steelers must lose once (SCHED: BAL, @CLE, @BAL, SD)
Ravens must lose twice (SCHED: @PIT, @SD, PIT, @WAS)
Colts must lose twice (SCHED: @NE, BUF, @DET, TEN)
The Steelers and Ravens playing twice in the next three weeks plays in our favor - no matter what, one of those two teams will fulfill those conditions. A split would obviously be the most favorable - Roethlisberger going down is a major blow to that hope, but Baltimore has still been shaky on the road. If Pitt can't do anything while Ben is out, and he stays out for long, we'll basically be dependent on the Ravens' road woes getting the better of them.
One of the things you ought to root for is for San Diego to do one of its patented 'late run of wins to save Norv Turner's job' starting this week. That'd take care of Denver and help a lot vs. Baltimore. And if somehow Leftwich leads the Steelers over Baltimore twice, they could come in handy against Pittsburgh as well. If San Diego doesn't beat Denver, the best chance is for the Bucs to do something in Week 13 - the Raiders and Chiefs are not exactly teams to rest hopes on.
The Patriots probably help us out here this week, as it's easily Indy's hardest game in the next few weeks. Outside of that, none of the teams are given losses, but none are given wins either - the Colts aren't bad, but I think the Pagano emotional factor + an easy schedule are more to credit for their record than their level of talent is. I mean, their four game winning streak is to teams that are 11-27 combined, not exactly a murderer's row, there. Best bet is probably a desperate Detroit, given they'd have to lose to us on Thanksgiving in this scenario.
If all these things can shake out by Dec. 9th, then that Monday night match in Foxboro is for home field advantage.
To secure by Week 15:
Texans must win out (prev. matches + v IND)
Ravens must lose once (prev. matchs + v DEN)
Much simpler, and entirely feasible, no? The match in Foxboro is still a doozy, but if we can get past that and Peyton Manning can hammer a susceptible Ravens team, that's it. We're home free.
Even if the Ravens win out, if we win out by Week 16, home field is ours thanks to the tiebreaker. Now, if we lose at some point, this all goes out of whack, but I'll cross that bridge when we come to it.
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Dawgtx
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 1838
Location: Clear Lake/Houston
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| Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 6:35 am Post subject: Re: Playoff Picture |
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| Longhorns90 wrote: | It's about that time of year, right? Though it's much nicer for the question to be more 'when can we secure homefield' rather than 'can we get in'?
The earliest we can secure home-field advantage is Week 14. To do that we would need for:
Texans must win all games (SCHED: JAX, @DET, @TEN, @NE)
Broncos must lose once (SCHED: SD, @KC, TB, @OAK)
Steelers must lose once (SCHED: BAL, @CLE, @BAL, SD)
Ravens must lose twice (SCHED: @PIT, @SD, PIT, @WAS)
Colts must lose twice (SCHED: @NE, BUF, @DET, TEN)
The Steelers and Ravens playing twice in the next three weeks plays in our favor - no matter what, one of those two teams will fulfill those conditions. A split would obviously be the most favorable - Roethlisberger going down is a major blow to that hope, but Baltimore has still been shaky on the road. If Pitt can't do anything while Ben is out, and he stays out for long, we'll basically be dependent on the Ravens' road woes getting the better of them.
One of the things you ought to root for is for San Diego to do one of its patented 'late run of wins to save Norv Turner's job' starting this week. That'd take care of Denver and help a lot vs. Baltimore. And if somehow Leftwich leads the Steelers over Baltimore twice, they could come in handy against Pittsburgh as well. If San Diego doesn't beat Denver, the best chance is for the Bucs to do something in Week 13 - the Raiders and Chiefs are not exactly teams to rest hopes on.
The Patriots probably help us out here this week, as it's easily Indy's hardest game in the next few weeks. Outside of that, none of the teams are given losses, but none are given wins either - the Colts aren't bad, but I think the Pagano emotional factor + an easy schedule are more to credit for their record than their level of talent is. I mean, their four game winning streak is to teams that are 11-27 combined, not exactly a murderer's row, there. Best bet is probably a desperate Detroit, given they'd have to lose to us on Thanksgiving in this scenario.
If all these things can shake out by Dec. 9th, then that Monday night match in Foxboro is for home field advantage.
To secure by Week 15:
Texans must win out (prev. matches + v IND)
Ravens must lose once (prev. matchs + v DEN)
Much simpler, and entirely feasible, no? The match in Foxboro is still a doozy, but if we can get past that and Peyton Manning can hammer a susceptible Ravens team, that's it. We're home free.
Even if the Ravens win out, if we win out by Week 16, home field is ours thanks to the tiebreaker. Now, if we lose at some point, this all goes out of whack, but I'll cross that bridge when we come to it. |
Good work!
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Apollo Stallion
Joined: 06 Feb 2008
Posts: 5088
Location: Battle Red State
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| Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 4:09 pm Post subject: |
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I'm prepared to forgo all the PC "any given Sunday" verbiage and allow myself the luxury of "overlooking" this week a bit as we are still enough better than Jacksonville to play a crappy game and still win because they still have to score to beat us and I don't think this will be the first week in franchise history where we are shutout. However, considering we managed to lose (defensively no less) to the 2 win Colts last year, I'm not willing to slide both of those to the win column and give urselves the division title just yet as the light is clearly coming on for Luck. They are better than everyone left on their schedule besides us and New England and just like last year, an injury to Schaub, AJ, or Arian would instantly transform our season with them have 2 games against us to win the division. If Jay Cutler can run on us like he did in a monsoon, Luck sure can and I don't think Wade has ever figured out with consistency what to do with QBs who move the pocket and convert 3rd and longs with their legs (see also Newton last year and Vick during his Cowboys years) and the fast track at Reliant has always aided guys like VY and Rodgers.
Absent injury, I also think that it is critical for us to avoid having to play on the road in New England, Denver, Balt, or Pittsburgh as Tebow showed last year against the Steelers that you don't have to be better than your opponent to have everything break your way at home, especially with the added pressure of knowing you should have never let it come to a road game. It was great to beat Chicago on the road, but there is no way that offense hangs with us without the weather and I'd rather eliminate the weather variable, not to mention continue to reward season ticketholders who patiently waited 10 seasons to see their first playoff game with two more this season.
What I think needs to show up this week is Kubiak taking a few minor steps to look towards the playoffs including making putting away Jacksonville early this week a huge priority, so Arian, AJ, and Schaub are fully rested heading into a short week against a physical Lions front 7 and that mileage on them is reduced and injury risk is minimized. Kubiak needs to not stubbornly keep Schaub in there out of fear that he is sending a message that it's okay to take our foot off the gas, but accept that his players aren't "kids" and that if we are up 21-3 in the 3rd, this team is built to not give up that lead and Yates managed to not do so last year with no experience at all.
We have three straight games on the road followed by 2 games in 3 weeks against the only team in a position to harm our playoff chances, so THIS is the week to put Arian on a pitch count not to exceed 15 carries unless the game is still in doubt in the 4th. Nobody will remember this game if we end up losing to Baltimore in the championship game, but if Ray Rice beats us because they kept his load reasonable at 282 carries by the AFC Championship game, while Arian continues his pace to be at an INSANE 440 carries by the AFC Championship game. Sure there will be a few other opportunities to cut back on Arian's load, but this week is the single best opportunity to do so until Week 17.
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Grasspike
Joined: 07 Jan 2007
Posts: 4966
Location: Davidson College
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| Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Apollo Stallion wrote: | I'm prepared to forgo all the PC "any given Sunday" verbiage and allow myself the luxury of "overlooking" this week a bit as we are still enough better than Jacksonville to play a crappy game and still win because they still have to score to beat us and I don't think this will be the first week in franchise history where we are shutout. However, considering we managed to lose (defensively no less) to the 2 win Colts last year, I'm not willing to slide both of those to the win column and give urselves the division title just yet as the light is clearly coming on for Luck. They are better than everyone left on their schedule besides us and New England and just like last year, an injury to Schaub, AJ, or Arian would instantly transform our season with them have 2 games against us to win the division. If Jay Cutler can run on us like he did in a monsoon, Luck sure can and I don't think Wade has ever figured out with consistency what to do with QBs who move the pocket and convert 3rd and longs with their legs (see also Newton last year and Vick during his Cowboys years) and the fast track at Reliant has always aided guys like VY and Rodgers.
Absent injury, I also think that it is critical for us to avoid having to play on the road in New England, Denver, Balt, or Pittsburgh as Tebow showed last year against the Steelers that you don't have to be better than your opponent to have everything break your way at home, especially with the added pressure of knowing you should have never let it come to a road game. It was great to beat Chicago on the road, but there is no way that offense hangs with us without the weather and I'd rather eliminate the weather variable, not to mention continue to reward season ticketholders who patiently waited 10 seasons to see their first playoff game with two more this season.
What I think needs to show up this week is Kubiak taking a few minor steps to look towards the playoffs including making putting away Jacksonville early this week a huge priority, so Arian, AJ, and Schaub are fully rested heading into a short week against a physical Lions front 7 and that mileage on them is reduced and injury risk is minimized. Kubiak needs to not stubbornly keep Schaub in there out of fear that he is sending a message that it's okay to take our foot off the gas, but accept that his players aren't "kids" and that if we are up 21-3 in the 3rd, this team is built to not give up that lead and Yates managed to not do so last year with no experience at all.
We have three straight games on the road followed by 2 games in 3 weeks against the only team in a position to harm our playoff chances, so THIS is the week to put Arian on a pitch count not to exceed 15 carries unless the game is still in doubt in the 4th. Nobody will remember this game if we end up losing to Baltimore in the championship game, but if Ray Rice beats us because they kept his load reasonable at 282 carries by the AFC Championship game, while Arian continues his pace to be at an INSANE 440 carries by the AFC Championship game. Sure there will be a few other opportunities to cut back on Arian's load, but this week is the single best opportunity to do so until Week 17. |
I think you overrate the Colts. Let's not forget that they lost to both the Jaguars and the Jets. Their record is largely a result of playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and pure luck (notice the lowercase L).
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Apollo Stallion
Joined: 06 Feb 2008
Posts: 5088
Location: Battle Red State
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| Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 12:37 am Post subject: |
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| Grasspike wrote: | | Apollo Stallion wrote: | I'm prepared to forgo all the PC "any given Sunday" verbiage and allow myself the luxury of "overlooking" this week a bit as we are still enough better than Jacksonville to play a crappy game and still win because they still have to score to beat us and I don't think this will be the first week in franchise history where we are shutout. However, considering we managed to lose (defensively no less) to the 2 win Colts last year, I'm not willing to slide both of those to the win column and give urselves the division title just yet as the light is clearly coming on for Luck. They are better than everyone left on their schedule besides us and New England and just like last year, an injury to Schaub, AJ, or Arian would instantly transform our season with them have 2 games against us to win the division. If Jay Cutler can run on us like he did in a monsoon, Luck sure can and I don't think Wade has ever figured out with consistency what to do with QBs who move the pocket and convert 3rd and longs with their legs (see also Newton last year and Vick during his Cowboys years) and the fast track at Reliant has always aided guys like VY and Rodgers.
Absent injury, I also think that it is critical for us to avoid having to play on the road in New England, Denver, Balt, or Pittsburgh as Tebow showed last year against the Steelers that you don't have to be better than your opponent to have everything break your way at home, especially with the added pressure of knowing you should have never let it come to a road game. It was great to beat Chicago on the road, but there is no way that offense hangs with us without the weather and I'd rather eliminate the weather variable, not to mention continue to reward season ticketholders who patiently waited 10 seasons to see their first playoff game with two more this season.
What I think needs to show up this week is Kubiak taking a few minor steps to look towards the playoffs including making putting away Jacksonville early this week a huge priority, so Arian, AJ, and Schaub are fully rested heading into a short week against a physical Lions front 7 and that mileage on them is reduced and injury risk is minimized. Kubiak needs to not stubbornly keep Schaub in there out of fear that he is sending a message that it's okay to take our foot off the gas, but accept that his players aren't "kids" and that if we are up 21-3 in the 3rd, this team is built to not give up that lead and Yates managed to not do so last year with no experience at all.
We have three straight games on the road followed by 2 games in 3 weeks against the only team in a position to harm our playoff chances, so THIS is the week to put Arian on a pitch count not to exceed 15 carries unless the game is still in doubt in the 4th. Nobody will remember this game if we end up losing to Baltimore in the championship game, but if Ray Rice beats us because they kept his load reasonable at 282 carries by the AFC Championship game, while Arian continues his pace to be at an INSANE 440 carries by the AFC Championship game. Sure there will be a few other opportunities to cut back on Arian's load, but this week is the single best opportunity to do so until Week 17. |
I think you overrate the Colts. Let's not forget that they lost to both the Jaguars and the Jets. Their record is largely a result of playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and pure luck (notice the lowercase L). |
Just to clarify, I'm not saying that is a great team or even that they are anywhere close to us, I'm saying that I'm not entirely ready to dismiss them as a threat to our division since we are still a long way from week 15 and they could very well be sitting at 9-4 and us at 11-2 by then which would set up a bit of a scary 3 game tournament for the title. While their early loss to Jax was soft, they showed how far they have come since then by throttling them last week on the road. They are young and inconsistent, but they also beat a Green Bay team that dominated us from the coin flip on, so I wouldn't dismiss them or their 4 game winning streak since an ugly loss to the Jets (an opponent that also qualifies as our ugliest win). I like our chances against New England better than theirs, but we will be underdogs heading into Foxboro and we don't get any credit for losing a closer game than they do. They also get the benefit of playing the worst team in football (Chiefs) in between our two games while we have to try to stop Adrian Peterson and keep Jared Allen away from Schaub's knees in week 16.
I fully expect that week 17 will be meaningless aside from the fact that we may be handing the Colts a ticket to the playoffs by playing our b squad, but their remaining schedule is a hell of a lot easier than ours so a 3 game cushion feels a lot more secure than two as a meaningful week 17 in Indy would place ALL of the pressure on us. No Texan fan should be overconfident about winning in Indy when we even managed to lose to the Orlavsky Colts last year and we sit with a 1-9 record there all-time including a 5 season losing streak under Kubiak. By the time those games come around, Luck is no longer a rookie and we need to still be healthy. Again, that is the point THIS week. Start taking measures now to make sure we are still firing on all cylinders come week 15-17 and into the playoffs and hopefully make week 17 an off week for the starters which also enhances our playoffs odds.
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jargin
Joined: 13 Dec 2006
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Location: Houston, TX
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| Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 6:57 pm Post subject: |
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The Colts have not won a single game by more than 7 points and got dismantled by both the Jets and the Bears.
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lumberjackchris
Joined: 14 Apr 2011
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:30 pm Post subject: |
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In this scenario (HOU win over DET, BAL win over SD, JAX win over TEN, and OAK win over CIN), the Texans could end up no worse than sixth in the AFC standings and would become the first team to clinch a berth to this season's playoffs.
Clinching in Nov?
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norg
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| Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 4:41 am Post subject: |
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playoff machine http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine
I think its going to be a 2 way race with us and denver we got to keep on winning cause it looks like denver will keep on winning but we have a 2 game lead on them right now so we can acctually drop two games
i thought we could rest at least the last 3 weeks but thats not going to happen |
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Jaytrajik
Joined: 10 Jan 2007
Posts: 13235
Location: Odessa, TX
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| Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:09 am Post subject: |
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| norg wrote: | playoff machine http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine
I think its going to be a 2 way race with us and denver we got to keep on winning cause it looks like denver will keep on winning but we have a 2 game lead on them right now so we can acctually drop two games
i thought we could rest at least the last 3 weeks but thats not going to happen |
The head to head win should make it 3.
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amazingandre
Joined: 16 Dec 2007
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| Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:24 am Post subject: |
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to be honest I prefer to not rest guys. Maybe give them the 4th quarter off each game, but don't sit them FOR any entire game. We SUCK coming off the bye, hell I don't even know if I want a round 1 bye to be honest
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EliteTexan80
Joined: 30 Apr 2007
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Location: Three time Mr. fanTASTic!
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| Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:41 am Post subject: |
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| amazingandre wrote: | | to be honest I prefer to not rest guys. Maybe give them the 4th quarter off each game, but don't sit them FOR any entire game. We SUCK coming off the bye, hell I don't even know if I want a round 1 bye to be honest |
If anything, I would use this Thursday game as a "rest" game. Mostly because the last two weeks have been BRUTAL, just very physical games in which the Texans have taken their share of punches.
I would want to see a lot of Jared Crick in for JJ Watt, a lot of Whitney Mercilius and Bryan Brahman in for Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin, a lot of DeVier Posey in for Andre Johnson, a lot of Ben Tate for Arian Foster (IF Tate is healthy, at least) a lot of Quentin Demps in for Danieal Manning/Glover Quin, and some Alan Ball/Brandon Harris in for Jonathan Joseph (who should sit this one out completely).
If we're gonna make it to the finish line with our core parts intact, we have to be strategic. Two physical games followed up by a short week is a recipie for an injury, best to curtail it and not have everyone second guessing a personnel decision
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Pastor Dillon
Joined: 12 Jan 2007
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Location: Mountain Home, Arkansas
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| Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:08 am Post subject: |
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| EliteTexan80 wrote: | | amazingandre wrote: | | to be honest I prefer to not rest guys. Maybe give them the 4th quarter off each game, but don't sit them FOR any entire game. We SUCK coming off the bye, hell I don't even know if I want a round 1 bye to be honest |
If anything, I would use this Thursday game as a "rest" game. Mostly because the last two weeks have been BRUTAL, just very physical games in which the Texans have taken their share of punches.
I would want to see a lot of Jared Crick in for JJ Watt, a lot of Whitney Mercilius and Bryan Brahman in for Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin, a lot of DeVier Posey in for Andre Johnson, a lot of Ben Tate for Arian Foster (IF Tate is healthy, at least) a lot of Quentin Demps in for Danieal Manning/Glover Quin, and some Alan Ball/Brandon Harris in for Jonathan Joseph (who should sit this one out completely).
If we're gonna make it to the finish line with our core parts intact, we have to be strategic. Two physical games followed up by a short week is a recipie for an injury, best to curtail it and not have everyone second guessing a personnel decision |
If we can go into Detroit and get this win its HUGE, we have a mini bye after this game and so we need to go all out to win it and then give our guys time to rest and recover over the next 10 days
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amazingandre
Joined: 16 Dec 2007
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| Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:48 am Post subject: |
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| Pastor Dillon wrote: | | EliteTexan80 wrote: | | amazingandre wrote: | | to be honest I prefer to not rest guys. Maybe give them the 4th quarter off each game, but don't sit them FOR any entire game. We SUCK coming off the bye, hell I don't even know if I want a round 1 bye to be honest |
If anything, I would use this Thursday game as a "rest" game. Mostly because the last two weeks have been BRUTAL, just very physical games in which the Texans have taken their share of punches.
I would want to see a lot of Jared Crick in for JJ Watt, a lot of Whitney Mercilius and Bryan Brahman in for Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin, a lot of DeVier Posey in for Andre Johnson, a lot of Ben Tate for Arian Foster (IF Tate is healthy, at least) a lot of Quentin Demps in for Danieal Manning/Glover Quin, and some Alan Ball/Brandon Harris in for Jonathan Joseph (who should sit this one out completely).
If we're gonna make it to the finish line with our core parts intact, we have to be strategic. Two physical games followed up by a short week is a recipie for an injury, best to curtail it and not have everyone second guessing a personnel decision |
If we can go into Detroit and get this win its HUGE, we have a mini bye after this game and so we need to go all out to win it and then give our guys time to rest and recover over the next 10 days |
I agree with Pastor, no way I let up this week, save that for the last game and even then I wouldnt since we would have a bye week anyway...play every game as a must win unless up big in the 4th, then sit some guys
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norg
Joined: 13 Jul 2008
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| Posted: Fri Nov 23, 2012 1:34 am Post subject: |
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if we win these next two games then we can pretty much treat out next 3 like pre season THe NE game is Key obvs for that 2 happen
and with the amount of injuries we are getting that would be a realllyyy good luxury to have
butttt if we when in tennesee and lose to NE then we can lose two games BUtttt we will be the number 2 seed ..... SO that would mean the AFC champ game will not be played in houston so i hope we do the first part beat Tenn and NE and just chill |
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texansfan
Joined: 08 Dec 2004
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Location: Saskatchewan, Canada
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| Posted: Fri Nov 23, 2012 2:34 pm Post subject: |
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| norg wrote: | if we win these next two games then we can pretty much treat out next 3 like pre season THe NE game is Key obvs for that 2 happen
and with the amount of injuries we are getting that would be a realllyyy good luxury to have
butttt if we when in tennesee and lose to NE then we can lose two games BUtttt we will be the number 2 seed ..... SO that would mean the AFC champ game will not be played in houston so i hope we do the first part beat Tenn and NE and just chill |
I think you play the season out. You begin to look at workload and making sure you aren't over-working anyone (JJ Watt, Barwin, Schaub, Andre, Arian, etc.), but you don't take the pedal off the gas. Look at Indy a few years back, they were 13-0 and tried to coast into the playoffs. They had their bye and then came back rusty and lost in the 2nd round. I think there is a real issue with complacency at the end of the season, and teams should continue playing hard to make sure they go into playoffs on a roll. We would have a bye anyway to rest, so no sense being any more rusty for that first playoff game.
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