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Conflicting Reports: Will Jermichael Finely Return?
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wgbeethree


Joined: 15 Dec 2009
Posts: 3064
Location: Denver, CO via Racine, Wisconsin
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Terranimal wrote:
wgbeethree wrote:
spilltray wrote:
ChaRisMa wrote:
Why does every MLB we plug in work well? Raji effect. Why does every WR we put out there produce? Finley effect.


That's a load of horse manure. The WRs produced like that before Finley and they do it without Finley. The reason it works is because the Packers can go 4-5 deep in the passing game much better than other teams can cover 4-5 deep. You don't get there by loading up on the top end, you get there through depth. Finley isn't that explosive or scary that he demands that kind of attention, especially if his effort drops, which has a tendency to happen.



Since 2009 the Packers averaged 31.1 PPG with Finley in the lineup and 24.9 PPG in the games he was injured.

Since 2009 the Packers have scored less than 21 points in 5 of the 48 games Finley was in the lineup (10.4%) and 6 of the 19 games he was injured (31.6%).

Coincidence? Maybe, but the numbers clearly seem to say that the offense is much more productive with Finley than without.


But the best Stat? A SB Victory w/o Finley and NO SB wins(so far) with him.


Correlation does not imply causation. Stats say they did it despite not having Finley not because of it.

Rolling Eyes They won it with no Morgan Burnett, Brad Jones, Marshall Newhouse, Mike Neal, and Ryan Grant. Should we just cut all those bums too?
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Justo knows nothing about sportz

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I would be a terrible coach/anything.
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snackattack


Joined: 07 Dec 2008
Posts: 677
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wgbeethree wrote:


Correlation does not imply causation. Stats say they did it despite not having Finley not because of it.

Rolling Eyes They won it with no Morgan Burnett, Brad Jones, Marshall Newhouse, Mike Neal, and Ryan Grant. Should we just cut all those bums too?


Those bums aren't due as much money as Finley, don't have agents that publicly criticize our QB and don't drop footballs nearly as much.

Regarding the first part, I don't think the bolded part really makes sense. Nobody is saying that we won the SB because we didn't have Finley; only that we showed the we can win, and win big, without Finley. This is a fact that isn't affected by any correlations.

I would not be as opposed to keeping him if he didn't cost so much OR didn't drop the football so much.
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MNPackfan32


Joined: 22 Sep 2010
Posts: 8072
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 8:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

incognito_man wrote:
Terranimal wrote:


But the best Stat? A SB Victory w/o Finley and NO SB wins(so far) with him.


if by 'best' you actually mean 'worst', then yes.
No kidding. Big difference between the defense last year and the year we won the Super Bowl. I'd love to hear why the defense sucked because Finley was playing. Same with 09 we couldn't stop a nosebleed in Arizona, Finley was a big reason we were even in that game at all. Terrible logic is terrible.
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MNPackfan32 wrote:
Josh Sitton, Mike Daniels

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ChaRisMa


Joined: 08 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We were 3-1 in 2010 before Finley went down. He was on pace for over 1000 yards that season. We lost the next two, both in Overtime. I'd argue that without Finleys production the first 4 weeks of 2010 we wouldn't have made the playoffs.
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Terranimal


Joined: 31 Oct 2011
Posts: 256
Location: Wisconsin
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

incognito_man wrote:
Terranimal wrote:


But the best Stat? A SB Victory w/o Finley and NO SB wins(so far) with him.


if by 'best' you actually mean 'worst', then yes.


Not really. Think Finley's value is over-hyped here and on other Packer sites.

It's true he was a major weapon and a dominate player for about a season and a half prior to injury. But since? Rodgers did what Favre did and learned to make his reads across the entire field and find the open guy. Jennings was the forgotten man prior to Finley's injury. Go back and look up Jennings stats prior to Finley getting hurt and then afterwards. Same probably could be said for Nelson and Jones as well. And of course now we have an awesome weapon in Cobb who has made the leap.

I'm old school and as such will always lean towards taking a Go-To number 1 WR over a TE. And last year did the actual numbers and stats for an article on another Packer site.

In simple terms: No team has won the SB with a dominate TE w/o a Go-To WR. But many teams have won the SB with a Go-To WR and not having a dominate TE. So until some team wins the SB with a dominate TE and not having a Go-To WR on their team, will stick to the old school thinking.
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Pugger


Joined: 01 May 2010
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobody is as good at getting open on this roster as Jennings is.
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I Am Rodgers


Joined: 19 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pugger wrote:
Nobody is as good at getting open on this roster as Jennings is.



Uhhh Cobb is pretty good at it. And even when he's not open, Rodgers is able to throw him open.
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Good thing for talky-talk Harbaugh he has an outstanding citizen/player like Aldon Smith on his team and not a classless hooligan like Clay Matthews.
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CentralFC


Joined: 03 Feb 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I Am Rodgers wrote:
Pugger wrote:
Nobody is as good at getting open on this roster as Jennings is.



Uhhh Cobb is pretty good at it. And even when he's not open, Rodgers is able to throw him open.


Cobb finds the soft spots in coverage far better than our other receivers.
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Simian07:
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I'd argue Jordy is probably around the 30th-40th best receiver in the NFL, maybe 50th.
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I Am Rodgers


Joined: 19 Jan 2009
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Location: New Jersey
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CentralFC wrote:
I Am Rodgers wrote:
Pugger wrote:
Nobody is as good at getting open on this roster as Jennings is.



Uhhh Cobb is pretty good at it. And even when he's not open, Rodgers is able to throw him open.


Cobb finds the soft spots in coverage far better than our other receivers.


Yup. If Jones or Jordy can't get separation on their route, they never get it. Cobb is able to work away from his route and get open. Jones though has been phenomenal this year when going up for the ball in 1v1 situations.
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stallyns wrote:
Good thing for talky-talk Harbaugh he has an outstanding citizen/player like Aldon Smith on his team and not a classless hooligan like Clay Matthews.
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Dubyajay


Joined: 23 Mar 2010
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dominate.

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snackattack


Joined: 07 Dec 2008
Posts: 677
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CentralFC wrote:
I Am Rodgers wrote:
Pugger wrote:
Nobody is as good at getting open on this roster as Jennings is.



Uhhh Cobb is pretty good at it. And even when he's not open, Rodgers is able to throw him open.


Cobb finds the soft spots in coverage far better than our other receivers.


Cobb is certainly the man, but I think I'd give Jennings the nod as the "best at getting open" on our roster and the best overall receiver. He's not physically dominant in any particular area, but just seems like he understands how footwork and running routes certain ways can get him open more often than not.
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 6:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2012/
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Pugger


Joined: 01 May 2010
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Location: N. Fort Myers, FL
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 7:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I Am Rodgers wrote:
Pugger wrote:
Nobody is as good at getting open on this roster as Jennings is.



Uhhh Cobb is pretty good at it. And even when he's not open, Rodgers is able to throw him open.


Rodgers said as much about Greg on his radio show Thursday afternoon. Smile
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Pugger


Joined: 01 May 2010
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 7:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Double post! Embarassed
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Last edited by Pugger on Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:43 am; edited 1 time in total
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mikemike778


Joined: 27 Feb 2011
Posts: 250
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 8:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2% drops for James Jones

8% for Cobb, Finley, Nelson

23% Driver

Going to be skewed by type of drops though - receiver makes an incredible attempt at a 1 hander and doesn't make it then its a drop. Second receiver not good enough to lay a hand on it and its not a drop.
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