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GDT 14: The Revenge of Chad Henne/The Return of CSIII
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Who Wins?
Phins
66%
 66%  [ 6 ]
Chad Henne
11%
 11%  [ 1 ]
The Jaguars' hopes at the number 1 pick
22%
 22%  [ 2 ]
Total Votes : 9

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iPwn


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tugboat wrote:
It's largely a reference to your claim that the problems with this team can be fixed with FA/later rounds...with the result that 'this team will be able to hang with most everybody'.

just don't think that's true. Put Geno in at QB, sign a FA or later round guy to try to patch our O-Line...our team is still a wreck as a whole. Our defense isn't going to stop anybody, and we aren't even going to generate turnovers. And even offensively, i don't see our group with Geno at the helm as being near as intimidating as the league leading-type offense it would take to balance out our terrible defense.
Oh. Well that wasn't quite what I meant, even though I worded it properly. We were talking specifically about the offense only putting up 3 points and the QB not being the biggest need on that side of the ball. I didn't really flesh out that exact point, but that was specifically in reference to the O-Line. My point was more so that if we were able to move the QB position from where it is to top 10, it would make a much bigger difference than upgrading any of the positions on the o-line to even #1 overall would. And my "hang with most everybody" comment fit in with that, that we wouldn't continue to get embarrassed and only put up three points because the QB would be able to keep us in games.

Clearly we need a pass rusher or two (probably three Wink ) and a player or two in the secondary and depth on offense before we were good, and o-line help and a RB and a 3rd WR and a truly great TE and a...well that might be it.. but I think shoring up the QB position would be the single biggest difference maker in shoring up the team.

Quote:
I guess it does partially come back to whether or not Geno Smith is a true 'franchise QB', which to me, is a consistent top-10 QB. Personally, i fear he tops out as a Flacco/Freeman type who is very mediocre...but flashes just enough to cause a team to hang on for years and years. Not elite, but not sucky enough to ditch right away. As a best case...worst case...it's another 1st round bust.
Which could be true, but I was speaking more in general terms than specifically about Geno or Tyler Wilson or Matt Barkley or Ryan Nassib. The idea that QB may not be the biggest issue, but it's still bad enough that if you think you have "the guy," he makes a bigger difference than any other player would to keep this offense from sputtering seemingly every game.

Quote:
But regardless of that...even IF i'm wrong and he is somehow an 'elite' QB in the NFL...the talent on this team just isn't there to be a true title contender. Our defense is honestly a joke. Our O-Line is pathetic. Our running game leans on a guy who has maybe a year or two left at high level, and while our passing game isn't anything to brag about...it's improving.
And how many of the prospects at the other positions would fix us into contenders with a simple first round selection?

Quote:
I'd still much rather spend top picks on guys who will shore up the other huge holes in our team for the long-term...and try for a hail mary on a mid-round sort of QB and/or Henne/Gabbert improving somehow. The way i see it...either we strike gold and it's all smiles and rainbows, or it's a dead end and being the QB driven league this is...we're still bad enough next year that we're right back in the running for a Bridgewater/Smith/Fales/etc.
The thing is you're more likely to find a great pass rusher or a RB or a CB or an o-lineman in the third than you are a QB. I'd much rather take the QB in the first and use the other picks to try to shore up the other areas.

And again, this is contingent on the expectations you have for the specific QB you have targeted. If you think he's what you're describing Flacco as, then you pass. But if you think he's even Big Ben, you take him and try to find your pass rusher in the 3rd instead.
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Tugboat


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
Tugboat wrote:
It's largely a reference to your claim that the problems with this team can be fixed with FA/later rounds...with the result that 'this team will be able to hang with most everybody'.

just don't think that's true. Put Geno in at QB, sign a FA or later round guy to try to patch our O-Line...our team is still a wreck as a whole. Our defense isn't going to stop anybody, and we aren't even going to generate turnovers. And even offensively, i don't see our group with Geno at the helm as being near as intimidating as the league leading-type offense it would take to balance out our terrible defense.
Oh. Well that wasn't quite what I meant, even though I worded it properly. We were talking specifically about the offense only putting up 3 points and the QB not being the biggest need on that side of the ball. I didn't really flesh out that exact point, but that was specifically in reference to the O-Line. My point was more so that if we were able to move the QB position from where it is to top 10, it would make a much bigger difference than upgrading any of the positions on the o-line to even #1 overall would. And my "hang with most everybody" comment fit in with that, that we wouldn't continue to get embarrassed and only put up three points because the QB would be able to keep us in games.

Clearly we need a pass rusher or two (probably three Wink ) and a player or two in the secondary and depth on offense before we were good, and o-line help and a RB and a 3rd WR and a truly great TE and a...well that might be it.. but I think shoring up the QB position would be the single biggest difference maker in shoring up the team.

Quote:
I guess it does partially come back to whether or not Geno Smith is a true 'franchise QB', which to me, is a consistent top-10 QB. Personally, i fear he tops out as a Flacco/Freeman type who is very mediocre...but flashes just enough to cause a team to hang on for years and years. Not elite, but not sucky enough to ditch right away. As a best case...worst case...it's another 1st round bust.
Which could be true, but I was speaking more in general terms than specifically about Geno or Tyler Wilson or Matt Barkley or Ryan Nassib. The idea that QB may not be the biggest issue, but it's still bad enough that if you think you have "the guy," he makes a bigger difference than any other player would to keep this offense from sputtering seemingly every game.

Quote:
But regardless of that...even IF i'm wrong and he is somehow an 'elite' QB in the NFL...the talent on this team just isn't there to be a true title contender. Our defense is honestly a joke. Our O-Line is pathetic. Our running game leans on a guy who has maybe a year or two left at high level, and while our passing game isn't anything to brag about...it's improving.
And how many of the prospects at the other positions would fix us into contenders with a simple first round selection?

Quote:
I'd still much rather spend top picks on guys who will shore up the other huge holes in our team for the long-term...and try for a hail mary on a mid-round sort of QB and/or Henne/Gabbert improving somehow. The way i see it...either we strike gold and it's all smiles and rainbows, or it's a dead end and being the QB driven league this is...we're still bad enough next year that we're right back in the running for a Bridgewater/Smith/Fales/etc.
The thing is you're more likely to find a great pass rusher or a RB or a CB or an o-lineman in the third than you are a QB. I'd much rather take the QB in the first and use the other picks to try to shore up the other areas.

And again, this is contingent on the expectations you have for the specific QB you have targeted. If you think he's what you're describing Flacco as, then you pass. But if you think he's even Big Ben, you take him and try to find your pass rusher in the 3rd instead.


I think we're kind of on different sides of the same page. I completely agree that QB is absolutely the biggest need for this team. Just disagree that when it comes to the present situation, getting ourselves a shiny new 1st round QB is the way to completely turn this team around right away...with a view on being a long term 'class of the AFC' type team.

The Colts are kind of an extreme example of my issue with the idea. You look at their turnaround from worst team to potential playoff team in one offseason...and a huge part of that obviously rides on the shoulders of Luck. But by virtue of having that elite QB, they've basically ruled themselves out of any future top-10 selections to further the 'rebuild' operation. Now, if it comes down to a true, undeniable franchise talent like Luck, obviously you make that leap. But i don't see that this year. And not that i believe Geno Smith is nearly the same calibre of prospect, but it's the same idea...if he were to make us a significantly better team right away, that eliminates us from the potential for continuing the 'rebuild' with top-5 sort of picks that we will want to make out team as a whole a force to be reckoned with.

But as a component of QB being the most important position on the field, building our team behind the shroud of poor QB play and then dunking an elite QB prospect into the mix after we've done some actual rebuilding and acquired a true elite player elsewhere in our lineup this year...and then still being a 'bad enough - record wise' team to draft a top-5 pick type QB the next year or whenever that is...imo, puts us farther ahead of the game.

And when it comes to drafting ourselves a project/longshot QB in the 3rd or 4th round say...if the guy actually pans out, we not only get a good QB, we still get our top-2 pick player at another position. That puts us in pretty good standing. And if that mid-round QB fails...well, in this QB driven league, we're still going to be a QB-starved team, bad enough to warrant a top-5 sort of pick where we can reevaluate the situation and go back to the well, trying for our 'franchise guy'. It doesn't hurt that it looks like a much stronger QB class. Wink
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 6:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Henne's QBR was 4.6
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 6:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

When was the last time a team built themselves into a Super Bowl winner by losing a lot of games and acquiring a lot of early first round talent and passing on a QB when they had a chance to get one? The Cowboys are the only team in my lifetime that I can think of that won a Super Bowl by meddling in the very low ranks of the NFL to acquire talent, and they made sure to grab a QB the first chance they had.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Henne's QBR was 4.6

It's common knowledge that QBR is an awful stat.
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jagman777


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Henne sucks, Gabbert sucks, all I want for christmas is a real QB.
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 1:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaguarfan wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Henne's QBR was 4.6

It's common knowledge that QBR is an awful stat.


No it isn't. It isn't perfect, but it's still a good indicator. If his QBR was 4.6 I'm sure he didn't do well.
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Jaguarfan


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Jaguarfan wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Henne's QBR was 4.6

It's common knowledge that QBR is an awful stat.


No it isn't. It isn't perfect, but it's still a good indicator. If his QBR was 4.6 I'm sure he didn't do well.

It shows that Henne didn't have a good cmp. %........QBR is constantly criticized as a stat focusing too much on cmp. %....
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Mr. V


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaguarfan wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Jaguarfan wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Henne's QBR was 4.6

It's common knowledge that QBR is an awful stat.


No it isn't. It isn't perfect, but it's still a good indicator. If his QBR was 4.6 I'm sure he didn't do well.

It shows that Henne didn't have a good cmp. %........QBR is constantly criticized as a stat focusing too much on cmp. %....


We have no idea what the formula is.
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Mr. V


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A-VBkhACAAA9Qnr.jpg
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 6:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaguarfan wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Jaguarfan wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Henne's QBR was 4.6

It's common knowledge that QBR is an awful stat.


No it isn't. It isn't perfect, but it's still a good indicator. If his QBR was 4.6 I'm sure he didn't do well.

It shows that Henne didn't have a good cmp. %........QBR is constantly criticized as a stat focusing too much on cmp. %....
That's what QBR is criticized for? I thought it was criticized for not having an open formula, for completely discounting YAC, blaming QBs for all sacks and for having subjective elements like the "Clutch Index" factored in.

Let's use the pass by Gabbert to Shorts against the Colts, where Shorts went 80 yards. From the understanding that I have of the way QBR is calculated, the way it was thrown gives Gabbert the exact same score as if Gabbert had thrown the ball behind Shorts, Shorts had to twist to catch it and was dropped right when he made the catch. This wouldn't be so bad (because all formulas have specific aspects that can be manipulated to show one thing or another) if it wasn't for this Clutch Index thing that says that those two passes both give us the same probability to win the game.
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
Jaguarfan wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Jaguarfan wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Henne's QBR was 4.6

It's common knowledge that QBR is an awful stat.


No it isn't. It isn't perfect, but it's still a good indicator. If his QBR was 4.6 I'm sure he didn't do well.

It shows that Henne didn't have a good cmp. %........QBR is constantly criticized as a stat focusing too much on cmp. %....
That's what QBR is criticized for? I thought it was criticized for not having an open formula, for completely discounting YAC, blaming QBs for all sacks and for having subjective elements like the "Clutch Index" factored in.

Let's use the pass by Gabbert to Shorts against the Colts, where Shorts went 80 yards. From the understanding that I have of the way QBR is calculated, the way it was thrown gives Gabbert the exact same score as if Gabbert had thrown the ball behind Shorts, Shorts had to twist to catch it and was dropped right when he made the catch. This wouldn't be so bad (because all formulas have specific aspects that can be manipulated to show one thing or another) if it wasn't for this Clutch Index thing that says that those two passes both give us the same probability to win the game.


From what I understand, he wouldn't have gotten anything for the YAC, but would have gotten more factored in because he threw a touchdown at a crucial time in the game.
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KhanYouDigIt


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 8:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote


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JaguarCrazy2832


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Laughing so we have 2 QBs that suck the big one, grrrrrrrrreat Rolling Eyes
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