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khodder


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
LOL, it's less than popular no doubt. I don't know, besides the plays he makes with his feet, I think he's legitimately bad.


I don't think I would call him "bad" but he does need work. He does tend to make a whole heap of What the Hell type throws that in college are hitting the turf or being completed that do not translate.
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Plucky


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
Plucky wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
Another article from PFF dated after week 13 stated that Andrew Luck, 3/4 of the way through the season, had attempted 125 passes that were 15 yards or more in the air, which was ALSO the highest in the National Football League.

Pretty black and white on this one.


Well I looked at espn and thats what it gave me. Its only 13% of his passes which only equates to roughly 4 passes a game out of 30 that are over 20 yards. That number is not unrealistic for any qb to do. And stats might be stats but I wonder how many of those pass attempts happened when they were down in the 3rd of 4th quarter


1. I have an ESPN article that directly references his throwing 125 passes over 15 yards or more after week 13. It's from an ESPN blog writer and as stated, it's backed up by MULTIPLE articles from ProFootball Focus. Whatever statistic you're using is obviously not correct.
2. The correct number comes out to just lower than 30% of Andrew Luck's throws going 15 yards or in the air. Nevermind the fact that it's tops in the NFL for the category, that's twice as many as Aaron Rodgers and Dree Brees and 3 times as many as Eli Manning and Big Ben.
3. As far as being down in the 3rd or 4th well, the Colts won 10-11 games and even though some of them came late in the contest they obviously had more opportunities to run the football or play shorter pass game down and distance than nearly 3/4 of the league and they didn't. Kind of defeats that theory.


Idk this is where i got my numbers
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14874/andrew-luck

It is what it is. I haven't watched many of their games so I can't back their numbers but I feel like you should also play to a QB's strengths to make them successful. I agree while you all say Kolb might not fit his scheme that understandable but over-drafting a subpar QB to try to fit a scheme doesn't make sense to me either.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Number aside, Colts and Steelers fans both back the sentiment that Arians runs an extremely high octane, vertical offense. I asked.

That's not an incorrect thought at all, in fact I agree to a certain extent. The big point is what will Arians want? Will he want to try and adjust the system he's been running for the last half decade in this league or will he want a guy who can do what we wants? Unfortunately, I don't see anything that suggests the former is in consideration. Arians own press conference backs up the thought that he wants his guy for his system. That's why I'm changing my thoughts about the QB spot. It's not necessarily because I want to, it's because I have to.
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khodder


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You know what the big thing here is;

One of you is talking throws of 15+ yards in the air and the other is talking about throws of 20+ yards in the air.

Of course you are going to get different numbers.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

khodder wrote:
You know what the big thing here is;

One of you is talking throws of 15+ yards in the air and the other is talking about throws of 20+ yards in the air.

Of course you are going to get different numbers.


No, as I stated a few posts back the number of throws Plucky has that were 20 or more yards in the air is also incorrect per PFF. Per a week 16 article, PFF had that number over 100 throws. Plucky's say 83 for the whole year.

PFF does also has an article from week 13 (Which was another argument altogether) that has Luck with 125 throws 15 or more yards in the air, which ESPN articles reference on 2 occasions. 125 throws 15 yards+ over 12 weeks is 10 throws per game on average, which based on a 40 attempt game (Which would be atypical for an Arians offense) would be around 25% of his throws. That, I'm sure even Plucky would agree is extremely high.
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khodder


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
No, as I stated a few posts back the number of throws Plucky has that were 20 or more yards in the air is also incorrect per PFF. Per a week 16 article, PFF had that number over 100 throws. Plucky's say 83 for the whole year.


I would take STATS or Elias Sport Bureau well before I looked at anything PFF.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
No, as I stated a few posts back the number of throws Plucky has that were 20 or more yards in the air is also incorrect per PFF. Per a week 16 article, PFF had that number over 100 throws. Plucky's say 83 for the whole year.


I would take STATS or Elias Sport Bureau well before I looked at anything PFF.


PFF is an opinionated site that needs to be taken as such (For instance, their definition of a QB pressure differs significantly from mine) but their non-opinionated statistics such as these are top notch.
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khodder


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
No, as I stated a few posts back the number of throws Plucky has that were 20 or more yards in the air is also incorrect per PFF. Per a week 16 article, PFF had that number over 100 throws. Plucky's say 83 for the whole year.


I would take STATS or Elias Sport Bureau well before I looked at anything PFF.


PFF is an opinionated site that needs to be taken as such (For instance, their definition of a QB pressure differs significantly from mine) but their non-opinionated statistics such as these are top notch.


I don't doubt that, and there are possible explanations behind what the difference in the numbers are, but if push came to shove, I am going to trust the numbers from STATS over PFF.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
No, as I stated a few posts back the number of throws Plucky has that were 20 or more yards in the air is also incorrect per PFF. Per a week 16 article, PFF had that number over 100 throws. Plucky's say 83 for the whole year.


I would take STATS or Elias Sport Bureau well before I looked at anything PFF.


PFF is an opinionated site that needs to be taken as such (For instance, their definition of a QB pressure differs significantly from mine) but their non-opinionated statistics such as these are top notch.


I don't doubt that, and there are possible explanations behind what the difference in the numbers are, but if push came to shove, I am going to trust the numbers from STATS over PFF.


I would use the numbers from Elias if they matched up. But they don't. Elias has the following pass attempts listed for Andrew Luck in 2012:

1. Behind the LOS: 82 attempts
2. 1-10 yards: 246 attempts
3. 11-20 yards: 152 attempts
4. 21-30 yards: 53 attempts
5. 31-40 yards: 18 attempts
6. 41+: 12 attempts

That equals 564 passing attempts. Problem is, Luck actually threw 627 passes in 2012.
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khodder


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
1. Behind the LOS: 82 attempts
2. 1-10 yards: 246 attempts
3. 11-20 yards: 152 attempts
4. 21-30 yards: 53 attempts
5. 31-40 yards: 18 attempts
6. 41+: 12 attempts

That equals 564 passing attempts. Problem is, Luck actually threw 627 passes in 2012.


The STATS LLC numbers (SportsIllustrated) add up to 627 passes. They are the ones I usually rely on when it comes to splits. Only downside is they do not store their splits past the end of the season.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes they do. They come out around 90 passes from 20 yards plus. That's roughly 15% of his throws, still a high number.

Doesn't change the throws from 15+ though.
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DirtyDez


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

khodder wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
LOL, it's less than popular no doubt. I don't know, besides the plays he makes with his feet, I think he's legitimately bad.


I don't think I would call him "bad" but he does need work. He does tend to make a whole heap of What the Hell type throws that in college are hitting the turf or being completed that do not translate.


He's further along than Russell Wilson at the same age.
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iRobot


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Randomly started thinking before leaving work...

This draft is quite heavy with OL talent.. granted, losing Lewan and Matthews to college for another year lightening the top talent up a bit but it's still pretty heavy by most accounts.

What's the prospect drop off like in terms of left tackles..

Joeckel vs Fisher vs Johnson on the left.

What's the drop off like in terms of guards..

Warmack vs Cooper vs Warford (or even moving Pugh into guard from tackle)

The reason I ask is what my original thought was..

We have to first look at the teams that need tackle and guard help..

KC (maybe), Philly (maybe), TEN, SD, STL, CHI (maybe)

KC and Philly, not much we can do.. everyone else picks after us. So what if we were to consider moving back (granted, a trade offer has to be presented to us) and accept that the drop off from Joeckel to Johnson is acceptable or the drop off from Warmack to Warford is acceptable.

Just thinking out loud..
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DJ_Fka


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Drop off between Warmack and Cooper is pretty severe.

However, drop off between Cooper and Warford and other guards isnt as much.
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apollo14000


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DJ_Fka wrote:
Drop off between Warmack and Cooper is pretty severe.

However, drop off between Cooper and Warford and other guards isnt as much.


Yes and No. The case could be made that Cooper would be a better guard than Warmack in a straight zone blocking scheme. Cooper's ability in space is better than Warmack's. Cooper is a very very good prospect in his own right.
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