LITC's 2013 Rick Spielman Vikings Mock V2.0 (1/9/13)

[LoverInTheCold]

Hey folks,

Bitter end to a manic season. Tough pill to swallow, but we move on.

Here's version #2 of my Rick Spielmany 2013 Vikings mock for those who enjoy my take.

For those who don't know how I put these together, here's a little rundown of what I do. Like every GM out there, Rick Spielman has tendencies and tells. I've put together a list of schools that Rick Spielman has favored and/or drafted heavily from over his tenure with the Vikes. I stick only to those schools. Does it mean that Rick won't look outside of those schools? Of course not. But for the purposes of this mock, it keeps everything in check. Then I take a look at everything Rick has said publicly and try to analyze those statements objectively. After that, I put a common sense list of team needs together and fill in the holes with targeted players based on CBS Sportsline's current rankings. I do my best to remain objective through the process. These mocks aren't made to fulfill my whims or desires, and these selections wouldn't necessarily be my choices if I were GM. My ultimate goal is simply to make a realistic mock through the perspective of our GM as I understand it.

So here's V 2.0:

LITC'S RICK SPIELMAN 2013 VIKINGS MOCK DRAFT V2.0 (1/9/13):

(1) 23: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
(rated #18 overall by CBS Sports)

(2) 52: Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
(rated #53 overall by CBS Sports)

(3) 83: Cobi Hamilton, WR, Arkansas
(rated #78 overall by CBS Sports)

(4) 99: Alvin Bailey, OG, Arkansas
(rated #108 overall by CBS Sports)

(4) 117: Gerald Hodges, OLB, Penn State
(rated #135 overall by CBS Sports)

(5) 148: Cory Grissom, DT, South Florida
(rated #155 overall by CBS Sports)

(6): 179: Earl Wolff, SS, N.C. State
(rated #197 overall by CBS Sports)

PROJECTED ROSTER (w/o FA):

QB 7 Christian Ponder
QB 14 Joe Webb
QB 4 McLeod Bethel-Thompson
RB 28 Adrian Peterson
RB 32 Toby Gerhart
RB 48 Matt Asiata
FB 42 Jerome Felton
WR 12 Percy Harvin
WR 11 Cobi Hamilton
WR 81 Jerome Simpson
WR 17 Jarius Wright
WR 84 Michael Jenkins
TE 82 Kyle Rudolph
TE 89 John Carlson
TE 40 Rhett Ellison
OT 75 Matt Kalil
OT 71 Phil Loadholt
OT 73 DeMarcus Love
OT 78 Troy Kropog
OG 74 Charlie Johnson
OG 63 Brandon Fusco
OG 67 Alvin Bailey
OG 76 Geoff Schwartz
C 65 John Sullivan
C 61 Joe Berger

DE 69 Jared Allen
DE 96 Brian Robison
DE 97 Everson Griffen
DE 91 D'Aundre Reed
DT 93 Kevin Williams
DT 98 Letroy Guion
DT 90 Fred Evans
DT 94 Cory Grissom
DT 99 Christian Ballard
OLB 52 Chad Greenway
OLB 56 Gerald Hodges
OLB 51 Larry Dean
ILB 59 Alec Ogletree
ILB 54 Jasper Brinkley
ILB 57 Audie Cole
CB 20 Chris Cook
CB 27 Xavier Rhodes
CB 26 Antoine Winfield
CB 21 Josh Robinson
CB 24 AJ Jefferson
CB 35 Marcus Sherels
FS 22 Harrison Smith
FS 41 Mistral Raymond
SS 33 Jamarca Sanford
SS 37 Earl Wolff

K 3 Blair Walsh
P 5 Chris Kluwe
LS 46 Cullen Loeffler

Looking forward to your opinions and analysis!
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[LoverInTheCold]

Also, for those interested, my projected roster was without FA.

My current top 10 Free Agent Targets are as follows:

1. Jarius Byrd, S, Buffalo Bills
2. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
3. Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers
4. Sean Smith, CB, Miami Dolphins
5. Danny Amendola, WR, St. Louis Rams
6. Andy Levitre, OG, Buffalo Bills
7. Henry Melton, DT, Chicago Bears
8. Louis Delmas, S, Detroit Lions
9. Rey Maualuga, LB, Cincinnati Bengals
10. Matt Moore, QB, Miami Dolphins

If we were able to sign 2-3 of these guys, it would completely change the equation. But there's really no way to realistically predict any of these signings.
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[VikeManDan]

I think that is a very solid approach to the offseason. Those first 5 picks of Rhodes, Ogletree, Hamilton, Bailey and Hodges all fill needs and seem to be liked by most around here. If Rhodes is the BPA on Spielman's board @ 23 I have no problem with the selection. Love Ogletree in the 2nd maybe it happens. I've heard good things about the other three players as well. Very thought out mock LITC. Well done.

[biggsohnasty]

LITC- Always a fan of your mocks (and posts for that matter). It is pretty interesting how Spielman has gotten a bit of a reputation for drafting and targeting players from certain schools (Notre Dame, Arkansas etc) and I wonder if it is going to eventually start hurting his ability to smokescreen/remain unpredictable in the draft process. Theres no doubt he's done pretty well in the last 2 drafts, and I hope he can contine that trend going forward.

In regards to the actual draft: I have been on board with Rhodes since last years draft and I've only warmed up to it more with the development of Seattles defense. Big corners have changed everything for them. I'm a huge fan of Ogletree and at this point I think he is a better fit scheme wise then Teo (tho Spiel loves his golden domers). I also wouldnt mind the two arkansas players, especially Bailey. 3 year starter on an interior line in the SEC is a pretty good prerequisite for the NFL.

I'm very curious to see how the offseason unfolds (Harvin saga, restructures/resigns, FA, predraft, coaching changes) because what we do with Harvin, and in early FA will directly impact our draft plans. No matter how ya slice it, Ricks gonna have a busy offseason

[LoverInTheCold]

It's definitely a peculiar draft to try and figure out.

First, there's the Te'o conundrum. Will he or won't he be available at #23? Basic common sense tells us no, but he definitely hurt his stock with a poor showing in their bowl game. And Spiel loves his domers above all else. But it's getting to the point where I think overall I prefer Ogeltree over Te'o as well. And probably from a scheme perspective too. But how do you pass on Te'o if he is there? I don't see Rick passing on him, but as of right now I don't think he'll be there. Time will tell.

I really wish we could nab our WR in the 1st, but beyond Keenan Allen, I just don't like any of them there. And Allen will most likely be gone. I like Woods if he slides in the 2nd or if we trade Harvin, but I wouldn't touch him in the 1st.

But so much of this is going to change if we are players in FA.
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[vikingsrule]

I know you are using CBS rankings, I dont think Hodges or Bailey fall that far. Hodges could be one of the better player at LB in this draft, im surprised at the lack of hype he is getting. Great leader, great tackler and a good athlete. He could play WLB or MLB in the Vikings defense.

[98TillInfinity]

I would love to see Rhodes end up in Minn. One of our weakest links is press coverage and he excels at that. He has the typical size that the Vikings always seem to go for.

Ogeltree would be good value in the second. I think he will be a workout warrior at the combine though and bump up his draft stock to mid first round. He played a great bowl game but still needs to improve against the run.

[CriminalMind]

Any draft that can get even 3 of these 4 of Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State, Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia, Alvin Bailey, OG, Arkansas, Gerald Hodges, OLB, Penn State .... would be a coup for us.

I would hope that after player evaluations and what not, when I do my mock later in the offseason, if can somewhat resemble this one.
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[eman9416]

I love this draft except for the lack of wide receivers drafted. If we extend Harvin and pick up Jennings i think this would be an ideal draft and off season. I love the presentation of this post and probably the best realistic draft i've seen so far

[LoverInTheCold]

[LoverInTheCold]

Thanks for the comments everybody! Always fun doing these Spielman drafts!
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[LoverInTheCold]

[Eric dunn]

Im a huge Rhodes fan, i think he and Cook would be nasty.

Overall i would be very happy with this draft. I dont think Ogeltree, Hamilton or Hodges will fall that far but its still early in the process.

Id like to see a free agency, surely Rick will look for one impact player.
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Lil Uno on sig

[tdub]

The right guys are being targeted at the right positions. I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on some of these guys, but they hit needs and do breed some familiarity (the Arkansas WR from Spielman). Landing a draft class right this and hitting on two of the guys you mentioned in free agency would be a huge coup for this team. My ideal pairing would be Greg Jennings and Jarius Byrd. Byrd and Smith would be a fantastic safety tandem, and with the drafted help at corner, our secondary would finally be a strength for once. When Winfield and Robinson are your nickel and dime backs, your secondary is looking solid. Jennings would provide a veteran presence at WR that has actual skills too, something Jenkins and Aromashodu lack.
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[Lil Uno]

For informational purposes, I'd like to know how you determined Xaiver Rhodes would be our 1st pick.

To me, based on the last years and Spielman's comments on the draft I'd have to think that our first round pick will be used on either a G, ILB, or WR.

Spielman has shown a tendency to hit needs depending on how strong the position is in the draft. In 2011, QB was a huge need. After an early run on QBs, Spielman knew the rest of the class was weak so he took Ponder. Then in the 2nd round, we knew Shiancoe was on his way out so they took Rudolph in a very weak class. It was so weak, the only other starter from that class is Lance Kendricks and he isn't anything to write home about.

Then last year, our LT spot had a major hole. There was no other prospect that could come in and start from day 1, which is why we went with Matt. Then we move back into the 1st for Harrison, because after Barron and Smith the rest of the class was very uninspiring. CB was a need as well but the draft was deep, which is why we waited until the 3rd round to address it.

Spielman attacks the weaker positions early in the draft, which leads me to believe the first selection will come down to the aforementioned positions. The draft is strong at the top with Guards, ILB's and WR's but it drops off significantly after round 2. Corner, Defensive Tackle, and Outside Linebacker are deep throughout the draft, which is why I have a hard time seeing Rhodes as our first pick.
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