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Woz
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 17421
Location: in a land where the furniture folds to a much smaller size
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 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 1:11 am Post subject: |
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| Redskins24-7 wrote: | | Woz wrote: | | canadaluvsdalla wrote: | | UPDATE: If it is a three way division tie for 9-7 Cowboys win the NFC East |
How so? Per NFL.com's tiebreaker page, a three way tie is broken first:
| Quote: | | Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs). |
If the Redskins beat Dallas but lose to Philly, Dallas is out:
DAL: NYG-W, NYG-L, WAS-L, WAS-L = 1-3
NYG: DAL-L, WAS-W, DAL-W, WAS-L = 2-2
WAS: NYG-L, NYG-W, DAL-W, DAL-W = 3-1 <<
If we flip it (PHI W, DAL L), then all three are 2-2 amongst each other. The second tiebreaker:
| Quote: | | Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. |
DAL = 3-3
NYG = 2-4 or 3-3 (the Eagles game doesn't really matter for the purposes of this conversation; it matters a lot for wild card considerations)
WAS = 4-2 << |
Dallas would be 4-2 in the division, Woz. The next tiebreaker is common games, which Dallas owns over us. Simply enough, if we don't beat Dallas week 17, we ain't winning the division. |
Ah ... basic arithmetic fails me yet again. |
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21 ALL THE WAY
Joined: 18 Dec 2008
Posts: 2896
Location: WASHINGTON DC
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 1:15 am Post subject: |
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| Redskins24-7 wrote: | Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe we clinch a wild card spot week 16 if...
1. Washington defeat Philadelphia
2. New York loses to Baltimore
3. Chicago loses to Arizona
4. Minnesota loses to Houston.
Someone please correct me if I'm wrong on this! I've done pretty much every scenario on the scenario playoff machine. I cannot find a way where we don't make it in, regardless of what Dallas or Seattle do the next 2 weeks. |
Well I will definitely be rooting for the Ravens, Cardinals, and Texans week.
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Woz
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 17421
Location: in a land where the furniture folds to a much smaller size
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 1:24 am Post subject: |
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| Redskins24-7 wrote: | 2. New York loses to Baltimore
3. Chicago loses to Arizona
4. Minnesota loses to Houston. |
In this case, we would have the tiebreaker advantage over the Giants (head-to-head tie -> better division record), Chicago (no head-to-head matchup -> better conference record), and Minnesota (head-to-head victory). All three of these teams would have 8-7 records with a ceiling of 9-7.
So, yes, it seems your supposition holds. |
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Redskins24-7
Joined: 21 Oct 2008
Posts: 14619
Location: North Beach, MD
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 1:34 am Post subject: |
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| 21 ALL THE WAY wrote: | | Redskins24-7 wrote: | Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe we clinch a wild card spot week 16 if...
1. Washington defeat Philadelphia
2. New York loses to Baltimore
3. Chicago loses to Arizona
4. Minnesota loses to Houston.
Someone please correct me if I'm wrong on this! I've done pretty much every scenario on the scenario playoff machine. I cannot find a way where we don't make it in, regardless of what Dallas or Seattle do the next 2 weeks. |
Well I will definitely be rooting for the Ravens, Cardinals, and Texans week. |
Also, we should be rooting for the 49ers since we can still catch the Seahawks should we lose the NFC East. Also... I can't believe I'm saying this, but we should also be rooting for the Cowboys. Don't kill me for saying this!!! The reason I am... well... is because IF we lose to them week 17, we WANT them to win the division. I've done numerous scenarios on the playoff machine (seriously, I'm addicted to this thing!) where if Dallas wins and gets to 10-6, we have ANY tiebreak over ANY team at 9-7. Yet if we LOSE to the Cowboys and the Giants win the division, we're screwed. The only possibility of us making the playoffs if the Giants win the division is Dallas beating the Saints, the Seahawks losing twice, AND BOTH the Bears and Vikings losing once. The possibilities are numerous if Dallas goes 10-6, we go 9-7, and the Giants DON'T go 10-6.
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^^mike23md on the sig!^^
| Woz wrote: | You gents have more fartage than I.  |
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Blknite01
Joined: 09 Jan 2005
Posts: 13695
Location: Apopka, FL
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 2:03 am Post subject: |
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Yes, if the Bears, Giants, vikings, and ourselves, all go 1-1 over the next two games, we are locked into the Wildcard.
I would prefer to just win the next two games and lock up the division =]
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turtle28
Joined: 21 Nov 2007
Posts: 53115
Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 8:51 am Post subject: |
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| Blknite01 wrote: | Yes, if the Bears, Giants, vikings, and ourselves, all go 1-1 over the next two games, we are locked into the Wildcard.
I would prefer to just win the next two games and lock up the division =] |
same here blknite01. I was reading through the last page of posts and I thought.... Just win baby!! 
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 mike23md
Days until:Minicamp 20; Training camp 64; Eagles @ Redskins 110 RIP SSF
Last edited by turtle28 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:57 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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rizzy
Joined: 13 Feb 2007
Posts: 514
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DCRED
Joined: 07 Jun 2010
Posts: 2353
Location: USA
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| Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 4:29 am Post subject: |
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| Blknite01 wrote: | Yes, if the Bears, Giants, vikings, and ourselves, all go 1-1 over the next two games, we are locked into the Wildcard.
I would prefer to just win the next two games and lock up the division =] |
What I was thinking the whole time too 
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THESKINSFAN21
Joined: 14 Jul 2011
Posts: 4008
Location: West Palm Beach
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| Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 2:59 pm Post subject: |
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Look at the beautiful playoff format on nfl.com. It has the playoff games as of now!!!! Looks great with us as,the only nfc east team in it! Check it out!!!
http://www.nfl.com/m/playoffs/playoff-picture
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turtle28
Joined: 21 Nov 2007
Posts: 53115
Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
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| Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:58 pm Post subject: |
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http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2012/12/19/redskins-chances-of-a-playoff-berth-now-stand-at-71/
Redskins have a 71% chance of making the playoffs.
If Redskins' win Sunday and the Giants' lose, it gives us Washington the inside track to win the division and puts our playoff chances to about 71%. If the Giants lose it means that winning the last two games guarantees we would win the NFC East.
| Quote: | | The fourth seed is by far the most likely landing spot in that case, but a very slight chance at the third seed remains. That's not bad for a team whose head coach appeared to give up on the season after a week 9 loss that put its playoff chances at 5%. |
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mike23md
Days until:Minicamp 20; Training camp 64; Eagles @ Redskins 110 RIP SSF |
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skinsfanLA
Joined: 19 Aug 2005
Posts: 5158
Location: Where the climate suits my clothes.
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| Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 4:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Thaiphoon wrote: | | Need to win next week and root for a New Orleans and Ravens win in their games. Not gonna say what happens if that happens, but ...ya know... |
The playoff tiebreakers have changed, so there's no way we can lock the division until week 17, so the superstition isnt' needed.
The old tiebreaker rules would have made it possible because conference record was held in higher regard than common opponents. Now it's common opponents as the 3rd tiebreaker and Dallas has us by 1 in common opponents even if they lose to NO and we beat the Eagles.
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| SnA ExclusiVe wrote: | | Ahhhh the old "unnamed source". It's been way too long, my very credible friend! |
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Woz
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 17421
Location: in a land where the furniture folds to a much smaller size
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| Posted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 12:58 am Post subject: |
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| skinsfanLA wrote: | | so the superstition isnt' needed. |
IT'S ALWAYS NEEDED!!
Do not incur the wrath of the Sports Gods(tm) upon our heads. |
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THESKINSFAN21
Joined: 14 Jul 2011
Posts: 4008
Location: West Palm Beach
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| Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 10:30 pm Post subject: |
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Can someone break down our playoff chance if we lose next week?
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Jeezy Fanatic
Joined: 29 Mar 2007
Posts: 21551
Location: The DMV; Proud Alumnus of the University of Miami, Class of 2011
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| Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 10:33 pm Post subject: |
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| THESKINSFAN21 wrote: | | Can someone break down our playoff chance if we lose next week? |
With the way the Seatlle game is going I believe we'd need Chicago to lose to Detroit and Minny to lose to Green Bay to get a wild card.
I'm hearing around twitter we've been flexed to Sunday night so if that's the case we'd know if we're in or not before kickoff.
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| Blick12 wrote: | | VD, you're like the campus police these days. You don't really have any authority anymore. Let's keep this party ragin'. |
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THESKINSFAN21
Joined: 14 Jul 2011
Posts: 4008
Location: West Palm Beach
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| Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 11:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Jeezy Fanatic wrote: | | THESKINSFAN21 wrote: | | Can someone break down our playoff chance if we lose next week? |
With the way the Seatlle game is going I believe we'd need Chicago to lose to Detroit and Minny to lose to Green Bay to get a wild card.
I'm hearing around twitter we've been flexed to Sunday night so if that's the case we'd know if we're in or not before kickoff. |
 Man,I dont see Chicago losing that one. Dallas is going to be extremely tough. We are REALLY going to need the fedex crowd to be loud!!!!!!! Its going to be an exciting game. With the opportunity of a playoff home game you have to think this game will have a playoff atmosphere. The crowd will likely consist of plenty of cowboys fans though. 
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