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49ers Road to the 2012 Playoffs (Week 16 Update)
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NinerNation21 wrote:
Just finished playing around with the playoff Machine on espn and it appears that our biggest foes are the Bears, Packers, and Seahawks.

If the bears and packers both lose one more game a piece before or after they play each other next week, we should be clear for the 2nd seed. Their matchup next week is going to be huge for us. So will the pats niners game next week. We win that game and we should keep ahold of the 2nd seed and win the division. I'm totally projecting here but I think it has a pretty good shot of going down like this.

All scenearos I keep doing makes me realize the 49ers really don't have total control of their destiny this year. We're going to need some help from some lower teams.


49ers do have total control of their destiny. Win the last 4 - get a first round bye. Only thing we don't have total control of is whether or not we get homefield throughout the playoffs. That we need some help with.
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's an update moving forward. Note: I'm assuming the Packers win tonight. If the Packers lose, it actually becomes possible to clinch a first round bye in Week 15:

BEST REMAINING POSSIBILITY: Home Field Advantage Throughout Playoffs

BEST POSSIBILITY IN WEEK 15: Clinch Division


49ers Clinch Playoff Birth in Week 15 if:

49ers beat Patriots

or...

Steelers beat Cowboys
Browns beat Redskins
Vikings and Rams tie


49ers Clinch Division in Week 15 if:

49ers beat Patriots
Bills beat Seahawks




Clinch a Playoff Berth:

-1 49ers win

-1 Cowboys loss + 1 Vikings loss + 1 Redskins loss + 1 Rams loss or tie





Clinch division:

-2 49ers wins

-1 49ers win + 1 Seahawks loss

-1 49ers win + 1 Seahawks tie (against an NFC West opponent)

-2 Seahawks losses (or 1 Seahawks loss and 1 tie providing the tie occurs within the division) + 1 Rams loss or tie


Clinch 1st round bye:

-3 49ers wins

-2 49ers wins + 1 Packers loss or tie

-1 49ers win + 2 Packers losses (or 1 Packers loss + 1 Packers tie) + 1 Giants loss + 1 Seahawks loss or tie + 1 Bears loss or tie

-3 Packers losses (or 2 Packers losses + 1 Packers tie) + 2 Bears losses (or 1 Bears loss + 1 Bears tie) + 2 Giants losses + 2 Seahawks losses (or 1 Seahawks loss + 1 Seahawks tie) + 1 Vikings loss + 1 Redskins loss + 1 Cowboys loss or tie (providing they tie with the Redskins or Saints) + 1 Rams loss or tie


Home field advantage throughout playoffs:

-3 49ers wins + 2 Falcons losses (or 1 Falcons loss and 1 tie)

-2 49ers wins + 3 Falcons losses (or 2 Falcons losses and 1 tie providing the 49ers loss isn't to the Cardinals)
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foreveryoung94


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UofMfan909 wrote:
That Rams loss is absolutely devastating. My playoff scenario had us going to New York to play the Giants in round one. That would be absolutely awful for us. I have us losing to Seattle at home - but if Browner (already confirmed) and Sherman are both out, I like our chances. Pretty dumb that we'd already have the division pretty much locked up if not for a) two Akers missed FGs and b) The interception touchdown by the Hawks against Green Bay.
If our offense doesnt start playing much much better we will lose our next two games and be in danger of missing the playoffs
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steadypimpin


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 10:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

foreveryoung94 wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
That Rams loss is absolutely devastating. My playoff scenario had us going to New York to play the Giants in round one. That would be absolutely awful for us. I have us losing to Seattle at home - but if Browner (already confirmed) and Sherman are both out, I like our chances. Pretty dumb that we'd already have the division pretty much locked up if not for a) two Akers missed FGs and b) The interception touchdown by the Hawks against Green Bay.
If our offense doesnt start playing much much better we will lose our next two games and be in danger of missing the playoffs
what if our offense isn't a necessity the next 2 games? Our defense seems to be getting better lately and they could be the deciding factor in the next 2 games. Just saying. Also our offense scored 27 today what's your beef?
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foreveryoung94


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 11:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

steadypimpin wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
That Rams loss is absolutely devastating. My playoff scenario had us going to New York to play the Giants in round one. That would be absolutely awful for us. I have us losing to Seattle at home - but if Browner (already confirmed) and Sherman are both out, I like our chances. Pretty dumb that we'd already have the division pretty much locked up if not for a) two Akers missed FGs and b) The interception touchdown by the Hawks against Green Bay.
If our offense doesnt start playing much much better we will lose our next two games and be in danger of missing the playoffs
what if our offense isn't a necessity the next 2 games? Our defense seems to be getting better lately and they could be the deciding factor in the next 2 games. Just saying. Also our offense scored 27 today what's your beef?
our bad offense cost us the game against the rams and nearly cost us against the saints and the dolphins. If not for great defense and special teams play we could have and probably should have lost both games, much more will be needed against actual quality opponents......are you really going to claim 27 points for our offense today ? Really? We had a 10 yard drive for seven of those and another 7 came in garbage time. The phins were desperate for a stop rolled the dice on a goalline type defense and tried to jam the middle so they got burned, big deal....that play was so insignificant that the smartest veteran play there would have been to take a knee once the first down marker was reached. So ill give them credit for a whopping 13 today.

Everyone can tell me all day about how our offense is better with kaep but with the exception of one half against a team with a terrible strategy its been worse and i dont even think that is arguable at this point
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 11:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

foreveryoung94 wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
That Rams loss is absolutely devastating. My playoff scenario had us going to New York to play the Giants in round one. That would be absolutely awful for us. I have us losing to Seattle at home - but if Browner (already confirmed) and Sherman are both out, I like our chances. Pretty dumb that we'd already have the division pretty much locked up if not for a) two Akers missed FGs and b) The interception touchdown by the Hawks against Green Bay.
If our offense doesnt start playing much much better we will lose our next two games and be in danger of missing the playoffs
what if our offense isn't a necessity the next 2 games? Our defense seems to be getting better lately and they could be the deciding factor in the next 2 games. Just saying. Also our offense scored 27 today what's your beef?
our bad offense cost us the game against the rams and nearly cost us against the saints and the dolphins. If not for great defense and special teams play we could have and probably should have lost both games......are you really going to claim 27 points for our offense today ? Really? We had a 10 yard drive for seven of those and another 7 came in garbage time. The phins were desperate for a stop rolled the dice on a goalline type defense and tried to jam the middle so they got burned, big deal....that play was so insignificant that the smartest veteran play there would have been to take a knee once the first down marker was reached. So ill give them credit for a whopping 17 today.

Everyone can tell me all day about how our offense is better with kaep but with the exception of one half against a team with a terrible strategy its been worse and i dont even think that is arguable at this point


We made a living off causing turnovers and giving us a short field last year, had that not happened, we probably wouldn't have won that Saint's game. Also, being down by one score late in the 4th isn't garbage time. If we didn't convert, then they get another shot at a score.
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UofMfan909


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 11:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

foreveryoung94 wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
That Rams loss is absolutely devastating. My playoff scenario had us going to New York to play the Giants in round one. That would be absolutely awful for us. I have us losing to Seattle at home - but if Browner (already confirmed) and Sherman are both out, I like our chances. Pretty dumb that we'd already have the division pretty much locked up if not for a) two Akers missed FGs and b) The interception touchdown by the Hawks against Green Bay.
If our offense doesnt start playing much much better we will lose our next two games and be in danger of missing the playoffs
what if our offense isn't a necessity the next 2 games? Our defense seems to be getting better lately and they could be the deciding factor in the next 2 games. Just saying. Also our offense scored 27 today what's your beef?
our bad offense cost us the game against the rams and nearly cost us against the saints and the dolphins. If not for great defense and special teams play we could have and probably should have lost both games, much more will be needed against actual quality opponents......are you really going to claim 27 points for our offense today ? Really? We had a 10 yard drive for seven of those and another 7 came in garbage time. The phins were desperate for a stop rolled the dice on a goalline type defense and tried to jam the middle so they got burned, big deal....that play was so insignificant that the smartest veteran play there would have been to take a knee once the first down marker was reached. So ill give them credit for a whopping 13 today.

Everyone can tell me all day about how our offense is better with kaep but with the exception of one half against a team with a terrible strategy its been worse and i dont even think that is arguable at this point


27 points against the Dolphins was the third most they've allowed all year. More than the best offense in the league (New England) put up just last week, and more than another top ten offense (Cincinnati) put up earlier this year. I'm not going to go through and see how many points each team got off of turnovers, but it's an absolute fact that we put up 27 points directly as a result of the offense, without forcing a single turnover on defense.

I'll agree it was ugly at the beginning, but the results kind of speak for themselves.

Oh, and considering that both of the teams who scored more than us (Houston and Tennessee) both had three interceptions against Tannehill, plus one fumble recovery, (also a defensive touchdown for Tennessee)... yeah, I think it's pretty impressive.
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foreveryoung94


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 11:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoCalNiner wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
That Rams loss is absolutely devastating. My playoff scenario had us going to New York to play the Giants in round one. That would be absolutely awful for us. I have us losing to Seattle at home - but if Browner (already confirmed) and Sherman are both out, I like our chances. Pretty dumb that we'd already have the division pretty much locked up if not for a) two Akers missed FGs and b) The interception touchdown by the Hawks against Green Bay.
If our offense doesnt start playing much much better we will lose our next two games and be in danger of missing the playoffs
what if our offense isn't a necessity the next 2 games? Our defense seems to be getting better lately and they could be the deciding factor in the next 2 games. Just saying. Also our offense scored 27 today what's your beef?
our bad offense cost us the game against the rams and nearly cost us against the saints and the dolphins. If not for great defense and special teams play we could have and probably should have lost both games......are you really going to claim 27 points for our offense today ? Really? We had a 10 yard drive for seven of those and another 7 came in garbage time. The phins were desperate for a stop rolled the dice on a goalline type defense and tried to jam the middle so they got burned, big deal....that play was so insignificant that the smartest veteran play there would have been to take a knee once the first down marker was reached. So ill give them credit for a whopping 13 today.

Everyone can tell me all day about how our offense is better with kaep but with the exception of one half against a team with a terrible strategy its been worse and i dont even think that is arguable at this point


We made a living off causing turnovers and giving us a short field last year, had that not happened, we probably wouldn't have won that Saint's game. Also, being down by one score late in the 4th isn't garbage time. If we didn't convert, then they get another shot at a score.


Who said anything about last year or the saints game? I am complaining about our offenses ability to score points this year since making the change at QB. Scoring points is the objective of an offense isnt it? well that and try to protect the defense but our ability to do that has greatly decreased too.

I dont care if you wanna call it garbage time or not They knew we werent going to throw and their absolute desperation to get the stop on that specific down caused their gamble and the big play. I feel like it was a garbage tack on touchdown that only masked how poorly our offens played all day long
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foreveryoung94


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UofMfan909 wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
That Rams loss is absolutely devastating. My playoff scenario had us going to New York to play the Giants in round one. That would be absolutely awful for us. I have us losing to Seattle at home - but if Browner (already confirmed) and Sherman are both out, I like our chances. Pretty dumb that we'd already have the division pretty much locked up if not for a) two Akers missed FGs and b) The interception touchdown by the Hawks against Green Bay.
If our offense doesnt start playing much much better we will lose our next two games and be in danger of missing the playoffs
what if our offense isn't a necessity the next 2 games? Our defense seems to be getting better lately and they could be the deciding factor in the next 2 games. Just saying. Also our offense scored 27 today what's your beef?
our bad offense cost us the game against the rams and nearly cost us against the saints and the dolphins. If not for great defense and special teams play we could have and probably should have lost both games, much more will be needed against actual quality opponents......are you really going to claim 27 points for our offense today ? Really? We had a 10 yard drive for seven of those and another 7 came in garbage time. The phins were desperate for a stop rolled the dice on a goalline type defense and tried to jam the middle so they got burned, big deal....that play was so insignificant that the smartest veteran play there would have been to take a knee once the first down marker was reached. So ill give them credit for a whopping 13 today.

Everyone can tell me all day about how our offense is better with kaep but with the exception of one half against a team with a terrible strategy its been worse and i dont even think that is arguable at this point


27 points against the Dolphins was the third most they've allowed all year. More than the best offense in the league (New England) put up just last week, and more than another top ten offense (Cincinnati) put up earlier this year. I'm not going to go through and see how many points each team got off of turnovers, but it's an absolute fact that we put up 27 points directly as a result of the offense, without forcing a single turnover on defense.

I'll agree it was ugly at the beginning, but the results kind of speak for themselves.

Oh, and considering that both of the teams who scored more than us (Houston and Tennessee) both had three interceptions against Tannehill, plus one fumble recovery, (also a defensive touchdown for Tennessee)... yeah, I think it's pretty impressive.
Yeah except more than half of those came as a result of a turn over ( special teams turnovers are just as big ad defensive ones) and a big play that was caused by end of game desperation. If anyone watched this game and think that offense as it is is good enough to win in the next 2 weeks let alone the Superbowl. Ill just calmly decline to discuss football with them anymore.
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 12:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

foreveryoung94 wrote:
SoCalNiner wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
That Rams loss is absolutely devastating. My playoff scenario had us going to New York to play the Giants in round one. That would be absolutely awful for us. I have us losing to Seattle at home - but if Browner (already confirmed) and Sherman are both out, I like our chances. Pretty dumb that we'd already have the division pretty much locked up if not for a) two Akers missed FGs and b) The interception touchdown by the Hawks against Green Bay.
If our offense doesnt start playing much much better we will lose our next two games and be in danger of missing the playoffs
what if our offense isn't a necessity the next 2 games? Our defense seems to be getting better lately and they could be the deciding factor in the next 2 games. Just saying. Also our offense scored 27 today what's your beef?
our bad offense cost us the game against the rams and nearly cost us against the saints and the dolphins. If not for great defense and special teams play we could have and probably should have lost both games......are you really going to claim 27 points for our offense today ? Really? We had a 10 yard drive for seven of those and another 7 came in garbage time. The phins were desperate for a stop rolled the dice on a goalline type defense and tried to jam the middle so they got burned, big deal....that play was so insignificant that the smartest veteran play there would have been to take a knee once the first down marker was reached. So ill give them credit for a whopping 13 today.

Everyone can tell me all day about how our offense is better with kaep but with the exception of one half against a team with a terrible strategy its been worse and i dont even think that is arguable at this point


We made a living off causing turnovers and giving us a short field last year, had that not happened, we probably wouldn't have won that Saint's game. Also, being down by one score late in the 4th isn't garbage time. If we didn't convert, then they get another shot at a score.


Who said anything about last year or the saints game? I am complaining about our offenses ability to score points this year since making the change at QB. Scoring points is the objective of an offense isnt it? well that and try to protect the defense but our ability to do that has greatly decreased too.

I dont care if you wanna call it garbage time or not They knew we werent going to throw and their absolute desperation to get the stop on that specific down caused their gamble and the big play. I feel like it was a garbage tack on touchdown that only masked how poorly our offens played all day long


You were complaining about our 10 yard drive. Last year we made a living off scoring on short fields after causing a turnover. Why didn't you complain about that then?

I'm not saying that we were perfect out there, but 27 points IS 27 points. It doesn't matter how we got it, what matters is that we got it, and we've never lost a game scoring 27+ points in the Harbaugh era.
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 12:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

foreveryoung94 wrote:
Yeah except more than half of those came as a result of a turn over ( special teams turnovers are just as big ad defensive ones) and a big play that was caused by end of game desperation. If anyone watched this game and think that offense as it is is good enough to win in the next 2 weeks let alone the Superbowl. Ill just calmly decline to discuss football with them anymore.


Time to go through every game where the 49ers have scored 27 points or more under Alex Smith this year


Green Bay:

Points scored: 30
Points scored off of turnovers: 7 (Bowman's INT set up a short field where Gore ran in a 23-yard TD on the very next play)


Detroit:

Points scored: 27
Points scored off of turnovers: 7 (Goldson's INT set up a short field where the team was once again already on the opponent's 23-yard line)


NY Jets:

Points scored: 34
Points scored off of turnovers: 10 (Sanchez is sacked by Aldon Smith and fumbles which sets up a field goal, and Carlos Rogers returns a fumble 51 yards for a TD)


Bills:

Points scored: 45
Points scored off of turnovers: 14 (Goldson returns a fumble to the Bills' 28-yard line and a TD is scored the next play, Culliver INT sets up a TD drive)


So - only once this year with Alex under center did the 49ers score more than 27 points without having it set up by a turnover. In the Lions and Packers games, it could have meant the difference between a win and a loss. Guess what? Turnovers happen. Good teams capitalize on them. We did. End of story.
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foreveryoung94


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
Yeah except more than half of those came as a result of a turn over ( special teams turnovers are just as big ad defensive ones) and a big play that was caused by end of game desperation. If anyone watched this game and think that offense as it is is good enough to win in the next 2 weeks let alone the Superbowl. Ill just calmly decline to discuss football with them anymore.


Time to go through every game where the 49ers have scored 27 points or more under Alex Smith this year


Green Bay:

Points scored: 30
Points scored off of turnovers: 7 (Bowman's INT set up a short field where Gore ran in a 23-yard TD on the very next play)


Detroit:

Points scored: 27
Points scored off of turnovers: 7 (Goldson's INT set up a short field where the team was once again already on the opponent's 23-yard line)


NY Jets:

Points scored: 34
Points scored off of turnovers: 10 (Sanchez is sacked by Aldon Smith and fumbles which sets up a field goal, and Carlos Rogers returns a fumble 51 yards for a TD)


Bills:

Points scored: 45
Points scored off of turnovers: 14 (Goldson returns a fumble to the Bills' 28-yard line and a TD is scored the next play, Culliver INT sets up a TD drive)


So - only once this year with Alex under center did the 49ers score more than 27 points without having it set up by a turnover. In the Lions and Packers games, it could have meant the difference between a win and a loss. Guess what? Turnovers happen. Good teams capitalize on them. We did. End of story.


Look you Guys can bash Alex all you want. I really like how BOTH the mods on this forum have taken my complaint about the current putrid performances on Offense and Automatically go into well well well Alex is the suck more!! give me a Break. NO football fan can objectively look at our offense the way it has been playing and say its been good!! and All I have said is that if we want to win the next 2 games to get in the playoffs or win something in the playoffs we need our O to play better the only mention of QB play was just that I began the time line there.

I didnt come here to argue about the QB specifically but I wanted to make the point that Our offense must score more than 13 points a game otherwise this will be the most disappointing season for me since 95.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
Yeah except more than half of those came as a result of a turn over ( special teams turnovers are just as big ad defensive ones) and a big play that was caused by end of game desperation. If anyone watched this game and think that offense as it is is good enough to win in the next 2 weeks let alone the Superbowl. Ill just calmly decline to discuss football with them anymore.


Time to go through every game where the 49ers have scored 27 points or more under Alex Smith this year


Green Bay:

Points scored: 30
Points scored off of turnovers: 7 (Bowman's INT set up a short field where Gore ran in a 23-yard TD on the very next play)


Detroit:

Points scored: 27
Points scored off of turnovers: 7 (Goldson's INT set up a short field where the team was once again already on the opponent's 23-yard line)


NY Jets:

Points scored: 34
Points scored off of turnovers: 10 (Sanchez is sacked by Aldon Smith and fumbles which sets up a field goal, and Carlos Rogers returns a fumble 51 yards for a TD)


Bills:

Points scored: 45
Points scored off of turnovers: 14 (Goldson returns a fumble to the Bills' 28-yard line and a TD is scored the next play, Culliver INT sets up a TD drive)


So - only once this year with Alex under center did the 49ers score more than 27 points without having it set up by a turnover. In the Lions and Packers games, it could have meant the difference between a win and a loss. Guess what? Turnovers happen. Good teams capitalize on them. We did. End of story.


But since you bring it up... Has our offense scored more or less points since the change at QB?

Has our offense punts per game gone up or down since the change @ QB?

Has our offense increased or decreased it time of possession avg since the change @ QB

Is the new QB still making more plays down field since the league has adjusted?

Is the new QB still taking less sacks since the league has adjusted

Is the new QB or our offense on an upward or downward trend since the league has made adjustments?

Even if all things are equal in all the previously mentioned items going into the playoffs would you choose the vet who has seen everything the nfl has to offer good and bad with playoff exp and even playoff success? Or the second year player with at most a total of 7 games started in his entire career and has never seen the change of speed that happens in the playoffs?
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Give it a rest dude. Alex isn't the starter anymore. Kaep is doing fine. You're just nitpicking now because your guy isn't playing.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

foreveryoung94 wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
27 points against the Dolphins was the third most they've allowed all year. More than the best offense in the league (New England) put up just last week, and more than another top ten offense (Cincinnati) put up earlier this year. I'm not going to go through and see how many points each team got off of turnovers, but it's an absolute fact that we put up 27 points directly as a result of the offense, without forcing a single turnover on defense.

I'll agree it was ugly at the beginning, but the results kind of speak for themselves.

Oh, and considering that both of the teams who scored more than us (Houston and Tennessee) both had three interceptions against Tannehill, plus one fumble recovery, (also a defensive touchdown for Tennessee)... yeah, I think it's pretty impressive.
Yeah except more than half of those came as a result of a turn over ( special teams turnovers are just as big ad defensive ones) and a big play that was caused by end of game desperation. If anyone watched this game and think that offense as it is is good enough to win in the next 2 weeks let alone the Superbowl. Ill just calmly decline to discuss football with them anymore.


I like how you cite a "big play" and then try and use it as an argument against the offense. Laughing

Fact: we forced one turnover against the Dolphins today that led to a score.
Fact: we had the third highest point production total of any team against Miami today.
Fact: the two teams who scored more than us against the Dolphins each had four turnovers.

Tennessee scored 37 points against Miami. 7 came on an interception touchdown. 13 came on drives that started in Miami territory. 20 without the help of the defense. Houston scored 24 points on drives that started in Miami territory, or a whopping SIX points without massive help from the defense.

Looking at the three highest scoring outputs (because I'm not going through all 13 of their games), it's pretty easy to see that we scored the most against Miami with the least help from field position thanks to the defense or special teams. Your argument is working against you.
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