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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 8:52 pm    Post subject: VRs Quarterly Mock Reply with quote

REGULAR SEASON RESULTS

Chicago Bears – W
@ St. Louis Rams – L
@ Houston Texans – L
Green Bay Packers – W

The Vikings finish the regular season with a respectable 8-8 record and are awarded with the 17th overall pick in the draft.


ASSESSMENT OF TOP 10 NEEDS

I am not including the need for a franchise QB as I assume that to be the most essential need for any team that does not have an established franchise QB.

1) – Wide Receiver

The passing game has been a complete tragedy this season and all the blame should not be placed on Christian Ponder’s shoulders. The Vikings WRs are horrible. Percy Harvin is the only respectable starter but he is still far too one-dimensional to be relied on as a #1 WR. Michael Jenkins, Stephen Burton and Devin Aromashodu have all seen significant playing time this season and neither of these three deserve to be on an NFL roster. I like Jarius Wright’s potential going forward as a #3 or #4 WR. I don’t know what to think about Jerome Simpson. He looked like a decent complimentary WR in 2011 and played quite well in the preseason. I am willing to give him another year. It’s obvious that he is struggling physically due to the nerve/back issues he has been dealing with all season.

2) – Middle Linebacker

Jasper Brinkley is a bottom five starting MLB and his woes in coverage and lack of athleticism are really killing this defense. A lot of the team's third down defensive struggles can be traced to the Linebackers inability to cover in zone. It starts with having an athletic and instinctive MLB who can run down the “alley” and cut off open spots in the zones.

3) – 1 Technique DT

Letroy Guion may feel more comfortable lined up over the ball, but he his horrible at it. Guion gets no push or penetration, he does not sustain double teams and gets pushed aside in the running game.

4) – Offensive Guard

The Vikings offensive line has been a strong point this year and I think most can feel good about Matt Kalil, John Sullivan and Phil Loadholt going forward. However, both OG spots have big question marks. Charlie Johnson is a below average starter at best and Brandon Fusco has essentially been demoted to being a part time starter. Both Johnson and Fusco have been strong in the run game but leave a lot to be desired as pass blockers.

5) – 3 Technique DT

The ranking of this need depends entirely on Kevin Williams returning. If Williams does return, I don’t expect the Vikings to take a 3 technique early, there is a more immediate need for a 1 Tech. at the moment. However, if Williams does leave, the Vikings don’t have anyone who can even start at the position. For me to want to draft a 3 technique DT early, they need to be a premier prospect. Otherwise, teams around the league have wasted a lot of early picks on this need.

6) – Safety

The Vikings Safetys have actually been a bright spot this year. Harrison Smith is proving why Safety is such an important position in today’s NFL and his presence has solidified things greatly. The Vikings are one of the best teams in the league at limiting big plays down field and in the Cover 2, the Safetys deserve the credit for that. Mistral Raymond and Jamarca Sanford have both proven to be adequate starters opposite of Smith. Sanford is fantastic and physical in run support but he can be a liability in coverage assignments. Raymond is the exact opposite, he rarely gets burned for a big play but he is so weak and doesn’t play like a Safety should as a violent and ferocious hitter. The Vikings could stand to grab a balanced, physical, athletic and rangy Safety to play opposite of Smith but its not going to break this defense if they don’t.

7) – Cornerback

CB is another need that depends entirely on the status of Antoine Winfield. If Winfield returns, the Vikings look quite good with Chris Cook, Josh Robinson, A.J. Jefferson and Winfield. However, if Winfield retires, there will be a big void at nickel and dime CB as everyone will have to move up a spot. I expect the Vikings to take at least one CB in the draft.

Cool – OL Depth

There really isn’t much developmental depth to speak of, an injury to either LT, RT or C would put this team in a world of hurt. Adding a new starter at OG will also add to the depth for the interior OL.

9) – Tight End

I don’t expect John Carlson to return so the Vikings will be a bit short on depth. The Vikings could really benefit by adding some speed at TE and grabbing a true athlete at the position. Kyle Rudolph, Rhett Ellison and Allen Reisner posses very little speed and explosiveness.

10) – Third Down RB/Special Teams contributor

I think most of us miss the impact Chester Taylor had on third down. The Vikings have really lacked that impact receiving RB since Taylor left in 2010. Toby Gerhart isn’t a natural third down RB, isn’t an effective short yardage runner and he shouldn’t be stealing carries away from Adrian Peterson.


OFFSEASON MOVEMENT

Players Resigned

FB Jerome Felton – 3 years; $5,500,000
WR Jerome Simpson – 1 year; $1,000,000
OT Phil Loadholt – 5 years; $28,000,000
OG Geoff Schwartz – 1 year; $900,000
DT Kevin Williams – 4 years; $18,000,000
LB Erin Henderson – 3 years; $10,000,000
LB Marvin Mitchell – 1 year; $850,000
LB Tyrone McKenzie – 1 year; $900,000 | RFA
CB A.J. Jefferson – 1 year; $1,900,000 | RFA
S Jamarca Sanford – 2 years; $2,000,000

Players Extended

WR Percy Harvin – 6 years - $48,000,000
DE Jared Allen – 5 years; $40,000,000

Players Released/Not Retained

WR Michael Jenkins | released
WR Devin Aromashodu | UFA
WR Stephen Burton | released
TE John Carlson | released
OG/C Joe Berger | UFA
DT Fred Evans | released
LB Jasper Brinkley | UFA
LB Larry Dean | released
CB Brandon Burton | released
S Andrew Sendejo | released

Free Agents Acquired

WR Dwayne Bowe – 5 years; $48,000,000

As is the case with most big money free agent WRs, I wouldnt anticipate Bowe going to a playoff team with an established QB. It seems that the teams that don’t have a proven QB who are a fringe playoff teams or worse that are willing to pay top dollar for a WR upgrade. Bowe has great size, has generally been a reliable receiver, and can make plays all over the field. I like Bowe more than I do Greg Jennings, due to age and availability going forward.

DT Sammie Lee Hill – 1 year; $2,500,000

Hill has been overshadowed by Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairly and Corey Williams in Detroit and should be an upgrade over Guion. Hill has great size to be an anchor and is a surprisingly good athlete for 330+ pound player. Hill signs a cheap, one year “prove-it” type contract in hopes of a breakout season.

Trades

Matt Flynn, QB, Seattle Seahawks

The Vikings trade a fourth round pick and a conditional pick in 2014 (third round pick if Flynn starts at least 10 games and the Vikings go to the playoffs; fourth round pick if Flynn starts 10 games; or a fifth round pick if Flynn makes the opening day roster in 2013).

The Vikings will assume Flynn’s $5,250,000 cap hit for 2013.

While I have been fairly neutral in my assessment of Christian Ponder to date, I am willing to give him another year as the likely starter. Rather than spending another early pick on a QB, I think it would be wise for the Vikings to find a young veteran who can compete for the starting job. Further, if Ponder shows little progression in year three, the Vikings need a viable backup plan. I don’t believe that Ponder had earned the right to just be handed the job as a starter given some of his dreadful performances this season and lack of overall progression.

Additionally, I have no faith in Joe Webb ever having to see the field for a meaningful period of time. Flynn is still young and should be solid competition for Ponder. I can’t imagine the Seahawks keeping Flynn around as a $5 million backup.

NFL Draft

The Vikings trade a first round pick (17) for a first round pick (27) and second round pick.

1 (27) – C.J. Mosley | MLB | Alabama | via trade

Mosley fills the void for an athletic, instinctive and discipline MLB and should be able to come in day one and start.

2 – T.J. McDonald | S | USC

As discussed earlier, adding another balanced Safety will greatly benefit the defense. Being able to switch in and out of Cover 2 and Cover 3 looks with both Safetys will benefit the run and pass defense. McDonald is physical, athletic and is well coached after spending his college career with Monte Kiffin.

2 – Cobi Hamilton | WR | Arkansas | via trade

Hamilton reminds me of Rueben Randle coming out last year and I anticipate him being drafted in the same spot. Hamilton is a raw WR but he has a good combination of height/weight/speed prospect. Hamilton should be the favorite to be the team’s #3 WR and possesses #1 WR potential.

3 – Cyril Richardson | OG | Baylor

Richardson was a college LT but switched to OG. Richardson looks like a natural RG prospect and should fall due to the depth of this year’s class.

4 – Jamar Taylor | CB | Boise State | via Detroit

Taylor has the size and short area quickness to be an effective slot CB at the next level. Taylor could be viewed as a potential replacement for Winfield inside, or at the least, Jefferson’s replacement at dime CB.

5 – Everett Dawkins | DT | Florida State

Dawkins looks like a typical 3 technique DT and his stock is sliding a bit. The Vikings take a chance on a mid round DT panning out.

6 – Zack Martin | OT/G | Notre Dame | via Tennessee

Martin reminds me of Charlie Johnson. Martin plays OT but his lack of length will push him inside. However, I see a future for Martin as a reserve swing OT/OG.

7 - Lucas Reed | TE | New Mexico

Need some depth and competition, Reed is a decent athlete and has good size.


FINAL ROSTER

QB (3) – Christian Ponder | Matt Flynn | Joe Webb
RB (3) – Adrian Peterson | Toby Gerhart | Matt Asiata
FB (1) – Jerome Felton
WR (5) – Dwayne Bowe | Percy Harvin | Jerome Simpson | Cobi Hamilton | Jarius Wright | Greg Childs (PUP)
TE (3) – Kyle Rudolph | Rhett Ellison | Lucas Reed
OT (4) – Matt Kalil | Phil Loadholt | DeMarcus Love | Zack Martin
OG (3) – Charlie Johnson | Cyril Richardson | Geoff Schwartz
C (2) – John Sullivan | Brandon Fusco

DE (4) – Jared Allen | Brian Robison | Everson Griffen | D’Aundre Reed
DT (5) – Kevin Williams | Sammie Lee Hill | Letroy Guion | Everett Dawkins | Christian Ballard
OLB (3) – Chad Greenway | Erin Henderson | Marvin Mitchell
MLB (3) – C.J. Mosley | Tyrone McKenzie | Audie Cole
CB (6) – Josh Robinson | Chris Cook | Antoine Winfield | A.J. Jefferson | Jamar Taylor | Marcus Sherels
S (5) – Harrison Smith | T.J. McDonald | Mistral Raymond | Robert Blanton | Jamarca Sanford

ST (3) – Blair Walsh | Chris Kluwe | Cullen Loeffler

Starters and Contributors

QB – Christian Ponder | Matt Flynn
RB – Adrian Peterson
FB – Jerome Felton
WR – Dwayne Bowe
WR – Percy Harvin
WR – Cobi Hamilton
TE – Kyle Rudolph | TE Rhett Ellison
LT – Matt Kalil
LG – Charlie Johnson
C – John Sullivan
RG – Cyril Richardson
RT – Phil Loadholt

LE – Brian Robison
DT – Sammie Lee Hill | DL Everson Griffen
DT – Kevin Williams
RE – Jared Allen
SLB – Chad Greenway
MLB – C.J. Mosley
WLB – Erin Henderson
LCB – Josh Robinson
FS – Harrison Smith
SS – T.J. McDonald
RCB – Chris Cook
NCB – Antoine Winfield
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DJpillz317


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hmmmmmmmmm...I just dunno bout Dwayne Bowe. Drops too many passes and is quite overrated imo.
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KeithVikings28


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tj McDonald isn't very good and safety is not a top need. Dwayne Bowe has a ton of drops and has a bad attitude. I don't think either one of those players make a difference.
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

why has there been so much talk lately about acquiring Matt Flynn?

he hasn't proven a thing in the NFL, other than 2-3 good games.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DJpillz317 wrote:
Hmmmmmmmmm...I just dunno bout Dwayne Bowe. Drops too many passes and is quite overrated imo.


Bowe does a good job at getting open, creating separation and he has been a healthy player throughout his career. I guess I am willing to put up with a few drops, the production is there despite playing with mostly bad QBs. He hasnt been a big TD producer, but I think Rudolph and Peterson will be the players who do the most scoring in the redzone.
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Lil Uno


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not a fan of Flynn. I agree that Ponder has to be challenged next year, if not replaced. Just don't think Flynn can be anything special.

Can't argue against Bowe. Bowe isn't an elite guy, but with all of the weapons we have he doesn't have to be superman. Any WR who comes here can focus on beating the man in front of him because there are just too many options on this offense to pay attention to just one guy. Bowe would be a solid addition.

Mosley and McDonald are excellent additions to the defense. The LB play has been terrible this year, although I accredit that more to the line being pushed away. Add the plug in Sammie Hill and the production of Mosley, it would improve the middle of the defense. Also not a fan of Hamilton. Maybe in the 4th round but definitely not in the 2nd round. He is fast but not explosive, he also leaves a lot to be desired as far as separation. Arkansas has him running mostly go routes, so his route tree is underdeveloped. Would take him a bit to make an impact at this level. Jamar Taylor is an impressive prospect with his size and coverage ability, has been inconsistent though. Richardson is a mauler at the OG spot. Lots of OGs in this class, Minnesota has to land one. Overall, aside from Flynn I could get on board.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vike daddy wrote:
why has there been so much talk lately about acquiring Matt Flynn?

he hasn't proven a thing in the NFL, other than 2-3 good games.


2-3 games is often all a veteran needs to receive attention. I actually think he is a better option than some of the other veteran options like Alex Smith and Michael Vick. the Vikings need to find a capable veteran backup QB, I think it would be foolish to not have someone else in mind behind Ponder.
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
I think it would be foolish to not have someone else in mind behind Ponder.

oh i agree, and i like your mock.

i just don't get the fascination lately with Flynn, in far more conversations than just this mock.

Flynn played well under the GB system with GB receivers, i can't see him performing well here.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

KeithVikings28 wrote:
Tj McDonald isn't very good and safety is not a top need. Dwayne Bowe has a ton of drops and has a bad attitude. I don't think either one of those players make a difference.


How wont Bowe make a difference. Bowe has usually been good for 14-16 yards per catch and is consistently a 1000 yard receiver. The Vikings are desperate for a player who can produce as such.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

-Not a fan of the Bowe signing, but wouldn't be upset if that's what we did.

-Is Mosely really a middle linebacker? I thought he was viewed more as an OLB.

-Not a fan of trading for Matt Flynn, but I agree that someone needs to be brought in.

-I believe Tyrone McKenzie is under contract thru next year; at least he is via rotoworld.

-Simpson and Henderson can leave as far as I'm concerned

It's a solid mock to be sure though, although over $5M may be an overpayment for Loadholt. However, I'm good with keeping him around as he's done a very good job this year.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vike daddy wrote:
vikingsrule wrote:
I think it would be foolish to not have someone else in mind behind Ponder.

oh i agree, and i like your mock.

i just don't get the fascination lately with Flynn, in far more conversations than just this mock.

Flynn played well under the GB system with GB receivers, i can't see him performing well here.


Could he compete with Ponder though? Could he potentially play better than Ponder if Ponder doesnt improve? Flynn probably isnt a long-term answer, but I see him more as a possible high end backup who has the smarts to possibly start if Ponder fails to improve.

I see it as , who is the better QB and back up plan/competition? Matt Flynn or Joe Webb/McLeod Bethel-Thompson
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Freakout


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the mock is actually very realistic. These moves feel like Spielman moves.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="rpmwr19"]-Not a fan of the Bowe signing, but wouldn't be upset if that's what we did.[.quote]

Something needs to be done to add a starting WR. The options are slim, possibly Greg Jennings or Santonio Holmes. Otherwise, relying on a rookie might not produce the immediate results at WR this team needs. Mike Wallace will likely be franchise tagged.

Quote:
-Is Mosely really a middle linebacker? I thought he was viewed more as an OLB.


I think Mosley could slide inside, he has good size and is a good tackler, physical player. He is listed at 230 pounds, but that will probably be more like 235-240 once he begins offseason training. Mosley has all the tools to be a Cover 2 MLB.

Quote:
-Not a fan of trading for Matt Flynn, but I agree that someone needs to be brought in.


Three options I see: 1) Spend an early pick 2) Sign Alex Smith or Michael Vick or 3) Trade for Flynn (or maybe sign him if he is released). I dont like Vick at all for this team and I dont trust Smith's failures outside of Jim Harbaugh. Though Smith is probably more ideal than Flynn.

Quote:
-I believe Tyrone McKenzie is under contract thru next year; at least he is via rotoworld.


You might be correct.

Quote:
-Simpson and Henderson can leave as far as I'm concerned


I wouldnt be upset if they left, but I would really like to see Simpson more fully integrated into the offense. With the suspension and mysterious nerve issues, i feel he is way behind this year. The guy has exceptional athletic ability, and i would be interested in seeing what he could look like with a full offseason of recovery and maybe get treatment if he needs it.

Quote:
It's a solid mock to be sure though, although over $5M may be an overpayment for Loadholt. However, I'm good with keeping him around as he's done a very good job this year.


Might be an example of the rookie wage scale in effect. Free agents who are worth keeping around will see more money. Loadholt has been a top 3 RT this year, between him and Sebastian Vollmer it will be interesting to see what the market is for good RTs. Ultimately, losing Loadholt would be costly, id rather just keep him at whatever reasonable price.
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thestonedkoala


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't like extending Allen for that long. He is way, way too flaky.
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Vikefan79


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thestonedkoala wrote:
Don't like extending Allen for that long. He is way, way too flaky.


Agreed on the years but what do you mean by flaky?
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