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What If We Let Flacco Walk?
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alfalcone


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 9:18 pm    Post subject: What If We Let Flacco Walk? Reply with quote

To start this off, this is more a thought experiment than an actual proposal, but this is basically to walk through the costs and benefits of letting Flacco walk, and it is not an overreaction to the Steelers game today, rather, what I think is a reasonable breakdown of Flacco's market value vs his performance over the last two years.

I'd argue that market value for Flacco is probably 5 years and 75 million dollars, though that is much more than what I think the Ravens would like to pay a quarterback, and I quite frankly don't think he's worth any more than 5 years and 35 million dollars, he has a big arm, can make all the throws, but he still throws stupid interceptions, fails to produce against good defenses or on the road, and has zero pocket presence. He puts up most of his big stats at home, against bad defenses, and relies on others to win big games. Letting Flacco walk or tagging and trading him might be the most a viable option.

The best replacements on the free agent market would be Matt Moore and Jason Campbell, obviously not the best of options, and we could in theory trade for Matt Flynn, Alex Smith, or if possible sign Michael Vick should he be cut.

I'd argue that Vick would most likely be the best replacement for Flacco should we let him walk, as despite the difference in size, Vick has largely the same skill set as Flacco, with the added benefit of mobility. I'd venture to guess that he would be available for 3 years and roughly 15 million, with the last two years essentially being semantics. To use baseball terminology I'd assume Flacco and Vick average roughly the same WAR, and we would have an additional 10 million dollars per year in cap space.

More importantly, should this fail, we would be in position to draft a truly elite quarterback, as Jeff Hostetler, Trent Dilfer, and Brad Johnson are the only non elite quarterbacks to win a super bowl in my life time, and all three had the luxury of a great defense.

We can be a good team with Flacco, and he can tease the fan base enough for us to think he is capable of winning a Super Bowl, but I doubt that he can or will, and think the money Flacco will demand can be better spent elsewhere. Flacco is an above average player at best and we cannot convince ourselves he is elite.
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SnA ExclusiVe


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Matt Flynn, if anyone, please.

But yes, this is just hypothetical. Flacco is going to want elite money, and imo he's not worth anywhere near that.
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RavensfanRD


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 9:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Please leave Flacco and win a championship elsewhere. OH PLEASE DO IT! PLEASE!
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janky


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 11:36 pm    Post subject: Re: What If We Let Flacco Walk? Reply with quote

alfalcone wrote:
To start this off, this is more a thought experiment than an actual proposal, but this is basically to walk through the costs and benefits of letting Flacco walk, and it is not an overreaction to the Steelers game today, rather, what I think is a reasonable breakdown of Flacco's market value vs his performance over the last two years.

I'd argue that market value for Flacco is probably 5 years and 75 million dollars, though that is much more than what I think the Ravens would like to pay a quarterback, and I quite frankly don't think he's worth any more than 5 years and 35 million dollars, he has a big arm, can make all the throws, but he still throws stupid interceptions, fails to produce against good defenses or on the road, and has zero pocket presence. He puts up most of his big stats at home, against bad defenses, and relies on others to win big games. Letting Flacco walk or tagging and trading him might be the most a viable option.

The best replacements on the free agent market would be Matt Moore and Jason Campbell, obviously not the best of options, and we could in theory trade for Matt Flynn, Alex Smith, or if possible sign Michael Vick should he be cut.

I'd argue that Vick would most likely be the best replacement for Flacco should we let him walk, as despite the difference in size, Vick has largely the same skill set as Flacco, with the added benefit of mobility. I'd venture to guess that he would be available for 3 years and roughly 15 million, with the last two years essentially being semantics. To use baseball terminology I'd assume Flacco and Vick average roughly the same WAR, and we would have an additional 10 million dollars per year in cap space.

More importantly, should this fail, we would be in position to draft a truly elite quarterback, as Jeff Hostetler, Trent Dilfer, and Brad Johnson are the only non elite quarterbacks to win a super bowl in my life time, and all three had the luxury of a great defense.

We can be a good team with Flacco, and he can tease the fan base enough for us to think he is capable of winning a Super Bowl, but I doubt that he can or will, and think the money Flacco will demand can be better spent elsewhere. Flacco is an above average player at best and we cannot convince ourselves he is elite.


Jason Campbell, Matt Flynn, Alex Smith, Mike Vick, Matt Moore???? Our best chance to win a championship is with Flacco. Now, and into the future Flacco gives us the best chance to win. I don't see how he is being compared to these QB's.

Lets save judgment for Flacco until after the season.

Edit: Flacco does tease this fan base. But he does not need to be elite to win a Super Bowl. Even multiple Super Bowls, a la Eli Manning. Okay I'll stop.
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janky


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 11:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
Matt Flynn, if anyone, please.

But yes, this is just hypothetical. Flacco is going to want elite money, and imo he's not worth anywhere near that.


Matt Flynn, no thanks. Might as well give us back Kyle Boller.
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SnA ExclusiVe


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 3:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RavensfanRD wrote:
Please leave Flacco and win a championship elsewhere. OH PLEASE DO IT! PLEASE!


If he does that then all my notions that Cam was the problem here are 1000% true.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 3:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's no need to take risks on a QB anymore. Flacco can make all the throws, especially when he has time. Pocket awareness may be a problem, but its gotten a little better each season. Flacco is good enough to get it done. And moreover Flacco's durability/toughness is a key talent as well.

You guys make it sound like we're guaranteed to get a better QB than Flacco. We could get an Andy Dalton, but give Flacco AJ Green... the 3rd best WR in the league with gazelle like fluidity and amazing size/hands... and suddenly he's going to look like a world beater. Dalton is quality, but his TD numbers are largely in part because he has two great redzone weapons and a running game that can't get it done. Moving on we could have a first round pick and get a Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, or Blaine Gabbert- none of whom are better than Flacco. We could get a Sam Bradford and have to worry about consistency and durability.

People are honestly considering Alex Smith? The guy is clearly a product of Jim Harbaugh- who hasn't received enough credit about how much of a QB guru he truly is. Same with Flynn. And neither of them can make all the throws and make them as strong as Flacco.

Speaking of Flacco's arm, he has one of those Brett Favre/Peyton Manning kind of arms that should still be slinging high velocity passes even as he gets older- meaning that's a longer time where we can focus on other areas as a team.

Flacco is the kind of QB that mirrors the ability of his receivers. If he has elite receivers, he's going to make them look just as elite as they are... maybe slightly better. But if he has average receivers, he's only going to make them look above average at best. As long as we can add an elite WR to the bunch, Flacco will be good. We have Smith, but we need more firepower- especially if we're going to continue to rely on our WRs to have to beat their man 1on1 all the time. Terrance Williams and DaRick Rogers look like two viable options. If Keenan Allen falls close enough to the 20s, I honestly wouldn't be against a trade up. Flacco needs another WR that can be a true playmaker, someone that won't be shut down unless they have an average corner on them.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

But hypothetically speaking, if we let Flacco walk, we'll be setting this franchise back 10-15 years. No way we can successfully continue to build up our team while also searching for solutions at the QB position while being able to attract key free agent offensive talent if necessary if we don't already have a quality QB in place. If we have a quality QB, TO is beasting it up for this team and Lewis probably keeps him in control enough to win Super Bowls for this team.

EDIT: Which is all to say that what Flacco provides for this franchise is stability. Even if he's not consistent in QB play, he provides stability to the QB position that can allow us to focus our efforts on other spots... while also having the prestige necessary to sign talented offensive playmakers if it comes down to that in the future. There's nothing worse than having a hole at QB and not being able to fill key spots on offense because no one wants to play for you and have their career ruined. Derrick Mason was the only guy to take that leap of faith for us... and it's why I wish we could've rewarded him with a Super Bowl.

The only bad thing about Flacco is that if not for him, we might've been able to make a strong run at my 1b favorite player in NFL history- Peyton Manning.
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Flaccomania


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 6:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll give you the short answer: If we let Flacco walk, we set ourselves back for years, kiss our SB aspirations away for years, tell Ray/Ed/Birk "hey, we care, but we're giving up for a few years", etc.

Flacco is by far our best chance and he has proven that he is over this tenure. Is he elite? No, he is not. I'd argue only 5/32 teams in the NFL have "elite" QBs. Is he very good? Yes, he is -- however, he is a bit inconsistent and takes a stronger supporting cast than some others do. He needs an OL that can give him time, and he needs WRs who get some separation -- which right now, only Torrey gets that and it's only deep.

But, bottom line -- you don't let a franchise QB walk, and Flacco is a franchise QB. Look at the Broncos -- they let Cutler go, and what happened? The #2 overall pick, barely sneaking into playoffs due to a horrific division, and then had to shell out $100m for Manning (who, when he leaves, is going to put them right back into mediocrity).
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NJ Raven


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

diamondbull424 wrote:
But hypothetically speaking, if we let Flacco walk, we'll be setting this franchise back 10-15 years. No way we can successfully continue to build up our team while also searching for solutions at the QB position while being able to attract key free agent offensive talent if necessary if we don't already have a quality QB in place. If we have a quality QB, TO is beasting it up for this team and Lewis probably keeps him in control enough to win Super Bowls for this team.

EDIT: Which is all to say that what Flacco provides for this franchise is stability. Even if he's not consistent in QB play, he provides stability to the QB position that can allow us to focus our efforts on other spots... while also having the prestige necessary to sign talented offensive playmakers if it comes down to that in the future. There's nothing worse than having a hole at QB and not being able to fill key spots on offense because no one wants to play for you and have their career ruined. Derrick Mason was the only guy to take that leap of faith for us... and it's why I wish we could've rewarded him with a Super Bowl.

The only bad thing about Flacco is that if not for him, we might've been able to make a strong run at my 1b favorite player in NFL history- Peyton Manning.


I wanted Peyton so bad. Probably led to my preseason distain for Flacco.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NJ Raven wrote:
diamondbull424 wrote:
But hypothetically speaking, if we let Flacco walk, we'll be setting this franchise back 10-15 years. No way we can successfully continue to build up our team while also searching for solutions at the QB position while being able to attract key free agent offensive talent if necessary if we don't already have a quality QB in place. If we have a quality QB, TO is beasting it up for this team and Lewis probably keeps him in control enough to win Super Bowls for this team.

EDIT: Which is all to say that what Flacco provides for this franchise is stability. Even if he's not consistent in QB play, he provides stability to the QB position that can allow us to focus our efforts on other spots... while also having the prestige necessary to sign talented offensive playmakers if it comes down to that in the future. There's nothing worse than having a hole at QB and not being able to fill key spots on offense because no one wants to play for you and have their career ruined. Derrick Mason was the only guy to take that leap of faith for us... and it's why I wish we could've rewarded him with a Super Bowl.

The only bad thing about Flacco is that if not for him, we might've been able to make a strong run at my 1b favorite player in NFL history- Peyton Manning.


I wanted Peyton so bad. Probably led to my preseason distain for Flacco.

I can't hold not getting Peyton against Flacco, its not his fault. I mean I just think it boils down to bad timing. All those years where we had dominant defenses and were just a great QB away from dominating the NFL... there never arrived a QB in free agency, but as soon as we get our QB- the best QB we've had in franchise history (not saying much to this point), Peyton Manning comes along due to an improbable scenario. If anything I'm pissed off at the football gods. To have my two favorite players of all time playing on this team would have instantly made this and any future seasons they shared my favorite time to be a Ravens fan. But alas, our timing was off... Crying or Very sad
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SnA ExclusiVe


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Flaccomania wrote:
I'll give you the short answer: If we let Flacco walk, we set ourselves back for years, kiss our SB aspirations away for years, tell Ray/Ed/Birk "hey, we care, but we're giving up for a few years", etc.

Flacco is by far our best chance and he has proven that he is over this tenure. Is he elite? No, he is not. I'd argue only 5/32 teams in the NFL have "elite" QBs. Is he very good? Yes, he is -- however, he is a bit inconsistent and takes a stronger supporting cast than some others do. He needs an OL that can give him time, and he needs WRs who get some separation -- which right now, only Torrey gets that and it's only deep.

But, bottom line -- you don't let a franchise QB walk, and Flacco is a franchise QB. Look at the Broncos -- they let Cutler go, and what happened? The #2 overall pick, barely sneaking into playoffs due to a horrific division, and then had to shell out $100m for Manning (who, when he leaves, is going to put them right back into mediocrity).


The Colts just told that to Wayne/Mathis/Freeney/Bethea and look what happened. Albeit they got the #1 pick and a future QB but it's not "set in stone" that if we release Flacco we set ourselves back for a few years and kiss those guys goodbye. I mean with the way I see right now, we are already doing that by having Cam and Dean Pees here with Flacco.

If Flacco is a franchise QB like you say, he should be able to win games like yesterday, but he just doesn't have that trait in him. He seems unable to carry the team and lead us to victory unless he sucks for 3 quarters and gets the chance in the 4th quarter to do so, and that's quite simply not how this league works. If your QB can't be consistent for 4 quarters and be trusted to be that same QB week in and week out, he's not a franchise QB. And with that, I end by saying Flacco is not a franchise QB at this time.
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sp6488


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

diamondbull424 wrote:
There's no need to take risks on a QB anymore. Flacco can make all the throws, especially when he has time. Pocket awareness may be a problem, but its gotten a little better each season. Flacco is good enough to get it done. And moreover Flacco's durability/toughness is a key talent as well.

You guys make it sound like we're guaranteed to get a better QB than Flacco. We could get an Andy Dalton, but give Flacco AJ Green... the 3rd best WR in the league with gazelle like fluidity and amazing size/hands... and suddenly he's going to look like a world beater. Dalton is quality, but his TD numbers are largely in part because he has two great redzone weapons and a running game that can't get it done. Moving on we could have a first round pick and get a Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, or Blaine Gabbert- none of whom are better than Flacco. We could get a Sam Bradford and have to worry about consistency and durability.

People are honestly considering Alex Smith? The guy is clearly a product of Jim Harbaugh- who hasn't received enough credit about how much of a QB guru he truly is. Same with Flynn. And neither of them can make all the throws and make them as strong as Flacco.

Speaking of Flacco's arm, he has one of those Brett Favre/Peyton Manning kind of arms that should still be slinging high velocity passes even as he gets older- meaning that's a longer time where we can focus on other areas as a team.

Flacco is the kind of QB that mirrors the ability of his receivers. If he has elite receivers, he's going to make them look just as elite as they are... maybe slightly better. But if he has average receivers, he's only going to make them look above average at best. As long as we can add an elite WR to the bunch, Flacco will be good. We have Smith, but we need more firepower- especially if we're going to continue to rely on our WRs to have to beat their man 1on1 all the time. Terrance Williams and DaRick Rogers look like two viable options. If Keenan Allen falls close enough to the 20s, I honestly wouldn't be against a trade up. Flacco needs another WR that can be a true playmaker, someone that won't be shut down unless they have an average corner on them.


Quote:
Well you can't prove to me that a 2nd round rookie from this year's draft won't be better than Flacco.

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NJ Raven


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only QB in college right now that I'd be willing to part with Flacco for is Bridgwater, but he's going #1 next year. Until Flacco doesnt make the playoffs multiple years in a row, he's our guy like it or not.
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Flaccomania


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
The Colts just told that to Wayne/Mathis/Freeney/Bethea and look what happened. Albeit they got the #1 pick and a future QB but it's not "set in stone" that if we release Flacco we set ourselves back for a few years and kiss those guys goodbye. I mean with the way I see right now, we are already doing that by having Cam and Dean Pees here with Flacco.


The Colts are not SB contenders, nor are Freeney/Mathis/Wayne as close to retirement as Ray/Ed/Birk. Bad comparison.

Quote:
If Flacco is a franchise QB like you say, he should be able to win games like yesterday, but he just doesn't have that trait in him.


Give me a break with the "trait" garbage -- the guy played poorly against the #1 defense in the NFL. But it has nothing to do with a "trait" -- if it did, then Flacco has certainly shown he has that "trait" in the playoffs the last 2 seasons.

Quote:
He seems unable to carry the team and lead us to victory unless he sucks for 3 quarters and gets the chance in the 4th quarter to do so, and that's quite simply not how this league works. If your QB can't be consistent for 4 quarters and be trusted to be that same QB week in and week out, he's not a franchise QB. And with that, I end by saying Flacco is not a franchise QB at this time.


I agree that he needs to be more consistent -- no doubt about that. But so does the rest of the team. It most certainly doesn't all fall on Flacco, and if he's playing poorly, we don't have anyone else that steps up either typically. Everything all around needs to be more consistent -- Flacco, Cam, OL, defense, etc.
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