RPM's Well Thought Out (Hopefully) Off-Season (Coach Change)

[rpmwr19]

Season Notes
* Vikings finish 6-10 (I could see 7-9)
* Leslie Frazier and his coaching staff are released from duty on Black Monday
* Christian Ponder starts the remaining games, but is replaced in the final two games by Joe Webb due to inadequacy.

Coaching Moves
Head Coach - Jay Gruden
* Jay is going to be one of the top head coaching candidates this offseason. He reportedly turned down offers from St. Louis, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis last year, but his stock is going to be too high after this season for him to turn those offers down again. He’s done a great job with a young offense and QB, and he’s done so by getting the ball out of the QB’s hand quickly. He’s also done a good job with the running game as Benjarvus Green-Ellis is the first Bengals running back with three consecutive games of 100+ yards rushing since Corey Dillon in 1999.

Offensive Coordinator - Hugh Jackson
* Hugh has experience as an offensive coordinator in the NFL and his offenses routinely finish in the top ten in the league. He also has experience as a head coach in the NFL and could provide valuable insight to a young, first year, head coach.

Defensive Coordinator - Raheem Morris
* We reportedly offered Raheem the job last year, but he honored his previous agreement with the Redskins to become their defensive backs coach. Morris reportedly took over play-calling duties at points this season for the Redskins defense due to defensive coordinator Jim Haslett’s inability to adjust to the offense. The reported switch was to play more man defense. Morris has a history with Jay Gruden as both were assistants under Jay’s brother. Raheem has a history as a cover-2 coach, but his ability to adjust to opposing offenses could lead to a transition away from it as a base defense.

Players Not Returning
WR - Devin Aromashodu
OL - Joe Berger
LB - Jasper Brinkley
LB - Erin Henderson
WR - Jerome Simpson
DT - Kevin Williams
TE - John Carlson (CUT) - ~1.08M in cap savings
WR - Michael Jenkins (CUT) - 3.25M in cap savings
OL - Charlie Johnson (CUT) - 2.45M in cap savings
S - Andrew Sendejo - Non-Tendered RFA

Cap Room After Cuts = ~50.3M

Re-Signings
RT - Phil Loadholt - 5 years - AAV ~4.5M
FB - Jerome Felton - 3 years - AAV ~1.25M
OL - Geoff Schwartz - 1 year - AAV .9M
LB - Marvin Mitchell - 1 year - AAV ~.825M
S - Jamarca Sanford - 2 years AAV - .825M
CB - AJ Jefferson - RFA Tender (ROFR) -1.26M
CB - Marcus Sherels - ERFA Tender - .54M

Cap Room After Signings = ~40.225M

Free Agent Signings
QB - Alex Smith - 3 years - AAV 8.5M
* Some people may not like this signing but Smith is a good caretaker for the offense. In this scenario Spielman and Gruden know they need to do something about the QB position, but don’t view any of the prospects in the draft as legitimate solutions. There will be a team opt out clause built into Smith’s contract much like the one that I feel the 49ers will exercise in Smith’s current contract. Smith, starting four years ago, has shown that he can take care of the ball and in an offense that will feature Adrian Peterson that is important. Smith has also shown to be an effective play-action QB.

S - William Moore - 5 years - AAV 4.25M
* The signing of Moore continues the overhaul of the Vikings secondary. Jamarca Sanford and Mistral Raymond have done a decent job, but Moore is a playmaker where they aren’t. Pairing Moore with Smith gives us a solid pair of safeties to patrol the middle of the field; which has been a consistent weakness for the team.

NT - Isaac Sopoaga - 3 years - AAV 3.3M
* Sopoaga is a stop-gap option for the Vikings at the nose tackle position. Letroy Guion seems to be built better for the under tackle position so he makes the move there. Sopoaga will split time with Fred Evans and will be relied upon as the teams primary run stuffer. He will also be relied upon to draw double teams in the run to keep lineman off of our linebackers.

WR - Ramses Barden - 2 years - AAV .75M
* Barden fits the mold of what Rick Spielman is trying to do. He’s a young receiver with potential and that potential flashed earlier this year against the Panthers. He’s a big bodied receiver that has still been learning the NFL game. Since the Panthers game he’s only received 7 more targets as the Giants receivers got healthy and Eli Manning struggled. At the very least he’s a big bodied threat in the red zone.

Cap Room After Signings = ~23.425 (I suspect some of this will be taken up by new contracts for Percy Harvin and Jared Allen)

Trades
WR - Jeremy Maclin - 4th Round (Vikings Original)
* I stole this idea from a mock in the Eagles forum. There could be a veritable yard sale coming in Philadelphia. Maclin is set to come off of his rookie deal (much like Percy Harvin) and I don’t see them shelling out money for him. He’s had some injury issues, but when he’s been on the field he’s proven to be a solid receiver. This seems like a Spielman move to me as Maclin has one year left on his deal and is inexpensive. 2013 becomes a proving year for Maclin. If he plays well the Vikings could reward him with a contract worthy of a #2 receiver. He’s also likely better than anyone available in the 4th round and is only 24 years old.

Cap Room After Trade = ~20.572

The Draft
* Vikings trade their first round pick (10-14 range) for a first round pick (18-20 range) and a 2nd round pick in 2013
*Vikings trade their initial 2nd round pick and a 3rd round pick in 2014 to move up to early part of the 2nd round


1st - Chance Warmack - OG - Alabama
* Adrian Peterson is our franchise player and our offensive guard play has been subpar this year; so this pick just makes too much sense to me. Warmack has been blasting holes open for ‘Bama backs this year and has also done a good job in pass-pro. Putting Chance next to Matt Kalil on our offensive line will gives us a left side that could know no equal in the NFL.

2nd(A) - Alec Ogletree - LB - Georgia
* The Vikings snag their second SEC player this draft and fill a major hole in the middle. Ogletree falls to the early second round due to some character concerns, but there is no denying his physical ability. He will need to bulk up a little bit to be effective in the run, but his speed, agility, and instincts could lead him to be a top cover linebacker in this passing league.

2nd(B) - Cordarelle Patterson - WR - Tennessee
* The overhaul of the receiving core continues with this pick. Patterson is a raw but he has elite H/W/S measurables and could develop into a true number one threat. With Maclin and Harvin on the team Patterson will initially be asked just to stretch the field and be the teams #3 receiver.

3rd - Akeem Spence - DT - Illinois
* Spence is a disruptive football player with a quick first step. He’s developing as a pass rusher still but has good strength for his size. He will rotate in at the under tackle spot with Christian Ballard and Letroy Guion

4th - Jordan Reed - TE - Florida
* Reed brings something different to the table at the tight end position. He has a great deal of athletic ability and was a former QB. He’s currently being tutored by former Gator tight end Aaron Hernandez and shares a lot of qualities with the Patriots stand-out tight end. With Reed added to Kyle Rudolph and Rhett Ellison the Vikings have a young, solid, stable of tight ends.

5th - Branden Smith - CB - Georgia
* Branden’s best fit in the NFL is a slot corner and I feel that is a spot where we should look for a guy to groom this offseason. Smith isn’t an interception machine by any means but he’s consistently around the ball and that’s shown by his 7+ pass breakups the last two years. He will likely need to bulk up a little bit but he looks to be a good fit as a slot corner moving forward

6th(A) - Manase Foketi - OL - West Texas A&M
* The Vikings go back to the NFL talent producing school that is West Texas A&M to select Foketi. He’s a transfer from Kansas State with great athletic ability. He needs to polish up his technique but he could be a sleeper-type offensive lineman that could kick inside to guard.

6th(B) - Kenneth Tate - LB - Maryland
* Being given a 2nd or 3rd round grade by the NFL Draft Advisory board in 2010 wasn’t enough for Tate to break a promise he made to his mother to finish his degree. This is an upside pick as Tate isn’t the player he was two years ago; who would be after two knee injuries? If Tate can return to form he would be a steal in the 6th round and a potential weak-side starter for the Vikings in the years to come.

Depth Chart
*Free Agent/Trade Addition
*Rookie

QB - Alex Smith | Christian Ponder | Joe Webb
RB - Adrian Peterson | Toby Gerhart | Matt Asiata
FB - Jerome Felton
WR (X) - Cordarelle Patterson | Ramses Barden
WR (Z) - Jeremy Maclin | Greg Childs
WR (Slot) - Percy Harvin | Jarius Wright
TE - Kyle Rudolph | Rhett Ellison | Jordan Reed
T - Matt Kalil | Phil Loadholt
G - Chance Warmack | Geoff Schwartz
C - John Sullivan
OL - Brandon Fusco | DeMarcus Love | Manase Foketi

DE - Jared Allen | Brian Robison | Everson Griffen | D’Aundre Reed
UT - Letroy Guion | Christian Ballard | Akeem Spence
NT - Isaac Sopoaga | Fred Evans
LB - Chad Greenway | Alec Ogletree | Marvin Mitchell | Audie Cole | Tyrone McKenzie | Kenneth Tate
RCB - Chris Cook | AJ Jefferson
LCB - Josh Robinson | Brandon Burton
NCB - Antoine Winfield | Branden Smith
FS - Harrison Smith | Mistral Raymond
SS - William Moore | Jamarca Sanford | Robert Blanton

SP - Blair Walsh | Chris Kluwe | Cullen Loeffler | Marcus Sherels


*Hopefully you guys view this as a well thought out offseason. Obviously the coaching changes are pure speculation on my part and I tried to use previous connections to the new head coach to fill the coordinator roles. Most of all I hope you enjoyed this mock and don’t feel it was a waste of your time to read.
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RPMs Viking Roster/Cap Tracker
2016 Aggregate Draft Board

[byuvike88]

I love the Maclin pick, i am not a huge fan of the Alex Smith signing. I don't see a lot of upside with Smith, but he could bring in more consistency

[twslhs20]

As a Mizzou fan I love this Mock. I loved watching Maclin on Saturdays. Made Danials look like an all pro. I'd be suprised to see the Iggles let him go for a 4th. I'd even do a 3ed.

Moore to anchor the safety spot with Smith would be nasty.

Only Issue I have is Alex Smith. I get why he was picket up. He is probably the best game manager out their. I don't think, with the way he has been handled in SF, that he will ever do an opt out clause in his new deal. Kapernick(sp) looked awful against the Rams on Sunday. I think they will keep Smith around.

Don't know much about John Grudens son. Not a fan of pick if we want offensive minds. I might lean toward Kyle Shannahan with our power running style.

Not a fan of Moore at DC. I want out of this awful cover 2
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Joe_is_the_best ^^

[Nzd07]

I don't mind the Smith signing. He certainly won't have the same success here as he had in SF, but he's about the best option we have right now. I agree that none of the QBs in this draft (outside of maybe Geno) is a franchise QB.

Ogletree falling that far is a little unrealistic, but I would still be ecstatic if we were able to nab him there.
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[rpmwr19]

[this providence]

Love this mock. Well done.

However, if this team is turning over it's coaching staff (again) and a failed QB, I see no reason as to why Spielman should be allowed to escape unscathed in his mess.
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[perrynoid]

Love this draft! The thought of Chance between Sully and Kalil gives me the goose-bumps...it would be nice to see AP get multiple 2000+ yd seasons in his career.
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"No one can disguise mediocrity better than Bill Belichick."

[Uncle Buck]

I like this mock a lot too. Just switch Alex Smith with Tim Tebow and I'd be completely sold on it.
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Go in there and win one for the Gumper.

[PrplChilPill]

Chance Warmak will not be there that late, imo.

This would be a very good offseason if it happened, though. I am all for Alex Smith right now, as I see no QB in this draft I love at all.
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Wins are a team stat, not a QB stat

[rpmwr19]

[Uncle Buck]

[PrplChilPill]

[rpmwr19]

[Nzd07]

[PurpleMugen]

Very creative approach, rpm. I enjoyed reading through this mock because you really thought outside the box and made some drastic decisions that can pay off. I am a huge fan of taking Ogletree where you did; I think he's a stud-to-be. I have expressed before that I don't see Alex Smith as a long-term option at QB, but after thinking about it, I've come to realize that he is probably going to be extremely motivated to finally right his ship given how his career has played out (the most recent downswing being the demotion in favor of Kaepernick). William Moore is a sneaky pick-up that could pay large dividends. Warmack at the top of the draft is pretty much the exact choice I would make, also. The only quibble I might have is that Ramses Barden is more likely to be another Stephen Burton than a staple at WR; his lone great game came with Eli Manning doing work in that contest.

All in all, I had a great time reading through this. Once again, well done, rpm.
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Peppers90 on the sig.