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Geno Smith is worth drafting number one
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valkrei


Joined: 10 Apr 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 10:12 am    Post subject: Geno Smith is worth drafting number one Reply with quote

What I see is a guy who has a history of being over 65% accuracy and an insane TD/INT ratio. Whats more is his QB rating has always been over 100. The scary thing? His QB rating has improved every year of college play.

Then I look at Cassel and its not even apples and oranges anymore its so bad.

Might as well compare the Apple to going to dinner at BD's Mongolian BBQ.
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Logos


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't regularly watch college ball so I mostly rely on expert analysis and members of this forum for info on prospects. However, with the potential first pick, I wanted to check film on Geno to see what we might get in him.

I have to say I agree with you valk. After watching nearly all of his snaps from this season and previous seasons, he is the best QB prospect...and worthy of the first pick.

He has great size, footwork, pocket presence, arm strength, mobility, accuracy, and decision making. I love his quick release. I may be wrong, but his O line doesn't seem to be the greatest so he has to frequently work under pressure and adversity. He seems to have great movement in the pocket and has great awareness in the pocket and down field. He can quickly get rid of the ball. I also love his foot movement...reminds me of peyton manning. Please straighten me out if I'm wrong.
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bigschmadt00


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's a few question marks, or asterisks though when looking at Geno.

First, his completion percentage is inflated some due to the large amount of short screens and swing passes he throws.

With guys like Austin, Bailey, Devine, etc. he gets a lot of production from short passes as well, as they are all very elusive and fast.

Of course his offense is geared towards passing, so his stats get inflated due to this as well.

Additionally, this offense typically gets audibled from the booth/sideline. They line up, the OC gets a look at the defense from the booth and then calls an audible if needed. Geno is not asked to read a defense for the purposes of changing a play, simply to see which WR gives him the best option, but 80% of the time, he's going to his primary option.

These have been criticisms of successful guys in the past like RG3, Bradford, etc., but they are valid concerns. It makes it difficult to truly evaluate a QB in this type of offense.

I think more so then in other years, the Senior Bowl/Shrine Game could really be important tot he position, assuming some of these guys play in either. I mean you could realistically have Geno, Wilson, Manuel, Glennon, and Dysert all playing in one of these games. All have questions over the talent around them either making them look better or in some cases worse. I doubt Barkley plays with his shoulder, but who knows. Either way, with no clear guy #1, anyone who doesn't play without an injury is probably off my "want" list.
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nicfre2011


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with bigs. I have gone back and rewatched a couple of WVU games I have taped specifically to get a closer look at Smith. I also have rewatched some of the youtube "highlights" of Smith.

Now, I will add as a disclaimer, I don't watch the youtube highlights for the result of the play but moreso for the technical details, for example throwing motion, arm strength, footwork, accuracy. Not directly related to the player is in the case of a quarterback, what do the highlights tell me about the big plays - he is hitting the receiver in stride on a crossing route or throwing a tight spiral on an out route, is he making multiple progressions or simply waiting for a single read route to develop and looking off the safety for that one route?

When I watch Smith, some of my biggest concerns are probably largely based on the type of offense and not what it provides statistic-wise, but what that type of offense can hide. I want to see that consistent accuracy on plays where the quarterback has to hit the receiver in stride, has to get the ball over defenders and into a position where the receiver can get to the ball and not be rerouted by the pass.

What I have noticed is that alot of what Smith does is as bigs described, short screens and quick hitters as I call them. And when he throws the medium passes they are often to a receiver that has simply found the seam in the zone coverage and squatted with defenders not tight in coverage. Obviously the WVU offense has alot of playmakers, especially in the passing game and the Holgerson offense (can't blame him) is based around getting the ball to those playmakers in space. So they spread out the defense and hit the playmakers on short, quick routes and let them make plays with the ball in their hands.

I want to see Smith involved in more plays where he hits a receiver in stride, throws passes over defenders and to a moving target. Offseason workouts and hopefully the Senior Bowl will give us an opportunity to see Smith make more of those "traditional" throws.
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Jakuvious


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 11:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is Smith generally an intelligent guy? I can echo Big's concerns about the guy not really having to read defenses, but that's true of the vast majority of college QBs anyway. Even those that do read defenses are doing it at a much lesser level than they'd have to in the NFL, as teams can better disguise coverages and mix things up with more athletic guys. But generally if he seems intelligent and hard working, I wouldn't be too concerned about that. He certainly has the confidence and the poise in the pocket to manage it, which is really where Cassel falls short (I think he's probably smart enough, and definitely hard working enough, but he panics in the pocket, can't handle pressure, and forgets everything he knows very quickly.) That's why a guy like Griffen, who didn't really read defenses, is doing fine, while a guy like Vince Young, very clearly did not. Griffen was high effort, high character, and a very intelligent individual. Young....yeah...

He certainly has the ability though. While he isn't asked to make hard passes consistently, he certainly can, and does, make them. His accuracy doesn't strike me as a problem, he just hasn't quite perfected his art there.
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Mikek163


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wr screens, short passes, and slants are becoming increasingly popular in today's nfl, especially with these crazy hurry up offenses. That is not something to knock Geno for.
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ArrowheadRage58


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What Bigs is really saying in his recent posts is that we need to take a 2nd or 3rd round QB this year, keep Romeo, and then hope Johnny Football comes out after next year.

It seems he has been less adamant about 1st round QB since the uprising of Johnny. Wink

On another note, i've seen an argument for an 8 team playoff and it seems to make sense as you could argue that since Johnny has come of age, A&M is now the best team in college football. I know they'd be favored against ND on a neutral field.
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kylecumberland


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I heard that the chiefs like Tyler Wilson more than Geno Smith. I saw this on arrowhead pride. Some NFL scout/somebody in the know tweeted out that his sources tell him KC prefers Wilson over Geno. I have to say that I agree with that assessment at this point. Wilson has been put in a very difficult situation this year with the mess with petrino. Not only that losing so many good receivers. Despite all of that I like what I see from him.
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Rumless


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kylecumberland wrote:
I heard that the chiefs like Tyler Wilson more than Geno Smith. I saw this on arrowhead pride. Some NFL scout/somebody in the know tweeted out that his sources tell him KC prefers Wilson over Geno. I have to say that I agree with that assessment at this point. Wilson has been put in a very difficult situation this year with the mess with petrino. Not only that losing so many good receivers. Despite all of that I like what I see from him.

Ah, you must mean good ol' Reality_Check.

@NFLDraftMonster wrote:
As difficult as it is to get info out of the org these days, I have heard (reliably) that the #Chiefs may prefer Tyler Wilson to Geno Smith.


I trust him. Time will tell, since April is a long way's away and there might be a different crew in charge come that time, but take a look at his QB rankings for last year if you get bored today.
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jimmydee


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 3:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's what I THINK I know about Geno. In an interview with his mom (prejudice, I'm sure), BUT he apparently as a young kid was very detailed in EVEYTHNG he did. He analyzes almost everything, and according to reports, is off the chart smart, intelligent, articulate, good team mate, and locker room leader.

He is a student of the game, and the offense he is in does not highlight those abilities, necessarily. I like his mechanics, footwork, etc., and he has a very quick trigger with accuracy. No, he does not throw the ball down field, but his offense this year does not ask him to do that. I am very comfortable that he can if asked.

Barkley is a Southern Cal. guy that MAY have a little of the Lienhart (sp) tendencies in him. Geno is all about being as good as he can possibly be. Barkley may be also, but I sure do like Geno's athletic abilities more so than Barkley.

Crap shoot to a large degree, but I'll roll my dice with Geno.
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valkrei


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As Mike mentioned screens and slants are very effective in the NFL. Guys we can pass to JC and Mcluster they are perfect examples of the WR set we have already in place for a QB that can and will do this well.

Also on Tyler wilson, Ill be honest Geno or Tyler and I am happy at this point.
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Chiefer


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kylecumberland wrote:
I heard that the chiefs like Tyler Wilson more than Geno Smith. I saw this on arrowhead pride. Some NFL scout/somebody in the know tweeted out that his sources tell him KC prefers Wilson over Geno. I have to say that I agree with that assessment at this point. Wilson has been put in a very difficult situation this year with the mess with petrino. Not only that losing so many good receivers. Despite all of that I like what I see from him.

I hope that's not a sign that Pioli is staying another year.

Otherwise this rumor is pointless unless its coming from Hunt.
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bigschmadt00


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chiefer, in general I'd agree, we'll have a new GM making this decision. However, as with Pioli's first year, the actual scout's may be the same. Then it would matter, assuming our new GM doesn't ignore all of them, and do it all on his own like Pioli did.
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simonwayne


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 9:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Pioli prefers Wilson over Geno, then that only reinforces my belief that Geno is the best QB in this draft class.
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nicfre2011


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 9:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mikek163 wrote:
Wr screens, short passes, and slants are becoming increasingly popular in today's nfl, especially with these crazy hurry up offenses. That is not something to knock Geno for.


Mikey, Mikey, Mikey...nobody is knocking Geno. But those aren't the only passes that an NFL quarterback needs to make. All I was saying is I would like to see some of the other throws he is going to have to make on a consistent basis in the NFL. As it stands, the offense he plays in does not give him as many opportunities to get reps making those kinds of throws.

And honestly, I don't want to see dump off pass after dump off pass - we already have a quarterback that isn't capable of anything else but dump off passes.

Again, I am not dumping on Smith, just stating what I have seen/not seen and my impressions. No need to have a slobberfest over anyone yet.

LOL
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