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SoCalNiner
Joined: 13 Nov 2007
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 Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Spiel612 wrote: | I also like the idea of Alex Smith to Cleveland, but I won't lie, I am hoping the Jets find a way to fit him into our salary cap. We'd have to restructure a few deals, but if the Jets want any chance of winning in 2013 then I think we could really use him.
We are also running a West Coast Offense. Marty Morhinwheg is now our OC and he obviously comes from the Holmgren-Reid tree, which came from Bill Walsh. |
You might have to refresh my memory, doesn't Marty pass a lot? I recall Eagles fans complaining about not running enough. If so, then it might not be such a good fit. He's a solid WCO QB though.
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SFaithful97
Joined: 08 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:46 pm Post subject: |
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I hadn't really thought about this before, but Kaep's success may truly increase Smith's trade value to the high end of a low 2nd or 3rd rounder. It makes it look much less like our staff had no faith in Alex, and that this move was (rightly) because we felt we had something special in Kaep. Whatever your personal feelings about him, facts are facts; It doesn't matter to teams what his past is beyond the last year or two. Teams will know they are trading for a QB who while not Elite or even top 10, did manage to win a playoff game against a high powered Saints team last year and was actually playing quite well this season for the most part. Fans do not determine a players trade value, so regardless of how other teams fans feel about him there will be a team with a solid defense and the ability to run the football (Jets for example, or maybe Jacksonville) who would be a good fit for him. Especially with how weak the top of this draft is for QB's, a QB needy team would probably be willing to take him for a 2nd or 3rd, and draft a later round QB to try and develop for the future. Alex is a better option for a late 2nd rounder than any QB that will be available in the draft at that point this year. I am thrilled with how Kaep is playing, but let's not pretend we weren't getting pretty consistently solid play from Alex in his last 30 games on this team. He has proven recently he is at least a viable starting option, and in the face of this difficult situation has proven he is a team first guy who will be good for a locker room. A team like the Jets that has a coach that needs to win now to keep his job will take the best QB option available to him for this season, even if he has to pay a bit extra (in trade value) for him.
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steadypimpin
Joined: 01 Jan 2009
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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| SFaithful97 wrote: | | I hadn't really thought about this before, but Kaep's success may truly increase Smith's trade value to the high end of a low 2nd or 3rd rounder. It makes it look much less like our staff had no faith in Alex, and that this move was (rightly) because we felt we had something special in Kaep. Whatever your personal feelings about him, facts are facts; It doesn't matter to teams what his past is beyond the last year or two. Teams will know they are trading for a QB who while not Elite or even top 10, did manage to win a playoff game against a high powered Saints team last year and was actually playing quite well this season for the most part. Fans do not determine a players trade value, so regardless of how other teams fans feel about him there will be a team with a solid defense and the ability to run the football (Jets for example, or maybe Jacksonville) who would be a good fit for him. Especially with how weak the top of this draft is for QB's, a QB needy team would probably be willing to take him for a 2nd or 3rd, and draft a later round QB to try and develop for the future. Alex is a better option for a late 2nd rounder than any QB that will be available in the draft at that point this year. I am thrilled with how Kaep is playing, but let's not pretend we weren't getting pretty consistently solid play from Alex in his last 30 games on this team. He has proven recently he is at least a viable starting option, and in the face of this difficult situation has proven he is a team first guy who will be good for a locker room. A team like the Jets that has a coach that needs to win now to keep his job will take the best QB option available to him for this season, even if he has to pay a bit extra (in trade value) for him. |
A 2nd or 3rd is too high IMO. Teams will look at his past. It took a solid coach to manage him into an efficient QB. That's why he isn't worth the value of a 2nd or 3rd. I'll take that but won't be expecting it. The other teams might look at his past to see that he struggles when he gets put into a new system. They look at his past.
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SFaithful97
Joined: 08 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:01 pm Post subject: |
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| steadypimpin wrote: | | SFaithful97 wrote: | | I hadn't really thought about this before, but Kaep's success may truly increase Smith's trade value to the high end of a low 2nd or 3rd rounder. It makes it look much less like our staff had no faith in Alex, and that this move was (rightly) because we felt we had something special in Kaep. Whatever your personal feelings about him, facts are facts; It doesn't matter to teams what his past is beyond the last year or two. Teams will know they are trading for a QB who while not Elite or even top 10, did manage to win a playoff game against a high powered Saints team last year and was actually playing quite well this season for the most part. Fans do not determine a players trade value, so regardless of how other teams fans feel about him there will be a team with a solid defense and the ability to run the football (Jets for example, or maybe Jacksonville) who would be a good fit for him. Especially with how weak the top of this draft is for QB's, a QB needy team would probably be willing to take him for a 2nd or 3rd, and draft a later round QB to try and develop for the future. Alex is a better option for a late 2nd rounder than any QB that will be available in the draft at that point this year. I am thrilled with how Kaep is playing, but let's not pretend we weren't getting pretty consistently solid play from Alex in his last 30 games on this team. He has proven recently he is at least a viable starting option, and in the face of this difficult situation has proven he is a team first guy who will be good for a locker room. A team like the Jets that has a coach that needs to win now to keep his job will take the best QB option available to him for this season, even if he has to pay a bit extra (in trade value) for him. |
A 2nd or 3rd is too high IMO. Teams will look at his past. It took a solid coach to manage him into an efficient QB. That's why he isn't worth the value of a 2nd or 3rd. I'll take that but won't be expecting it. The other teams might look at his past to see that he struggles when he gets put into a new system. They look at his past. |
You are wrong about that I believe. They will look at his limitations sure, but it isn't like he was bad last year or this year. He has a 32 game span over the last 3 seasons that he has been playing really good football (not explosive but efficient). His limited potential keeps his value from being really high, but if you look at his recent seasons he has played well enough to at least warrant a 3rd. High end should be a 2nd and a later pick ...say 6th. Low end (as in laugh and tell them no if offered less) should be a 4th and 6th or conditional future 3rd.
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SFaithful97
Joined: 08 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:03 pm Post subject: |
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Many people like to forget he was actually playing quite well when he got to play the last half of 2010. That was before harbaugh got there, and is what earned him a chance to stay for 2011.
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| MAC DRE wrote: | | I'd rather have young Wagner and Wright going forward than Willis and Bowman. |
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rudyZ
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:11 pm Post subject: |
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| steadypimpin wrote: | | SFaithful97 wrote: | | I hadn't really thought about this before, but Kaep's success may truly increase Smith's trade value to the high end of a low 2nd or 3rd rounder. It makes it look much less like our staff had no faith in Alex, and that this move was (rightly) because we felt we had something special in Kaep. Whatever your personal feelings about him, facts are facts; It doesn't matter to teams what his past is beyond the last year or two. Teams will know they are trading for a QB who while not Elite or even top 10, did manage to win a playoff game against a high powered Saints team last year and was actually playing quite well this season for the most part. Fans do not determine a players trade value, so regardless of how other teams fans feel about him there will be a team with a solid defense and the ability to run the football (Jets for example, or maybe Jacksonville) who would be a good fit for him. Especially with how weak the top of this draft is for QB's, a QB needy team would probably be willing to take him for a 2nd or 3rd, and draft a later round QB to try and develop for the future. Alex is a better option for a late 2nd rounder than any QB that will be available in the draft at that point this year. I am thrilled with how Kaep is playing, but let's not pretend we weren't getting pretty consistently solid play from Alex in his last 30 games on this team. He has proven recently he is at least a viable starting option, and in the face of this difficult situation has proven he is a team first guy who will be good for a locker room. A team like the Jets that has a coach that needs to win now to keep his job will take the best QB option available to him for this season, even if he has to pay a bit extra (in trade value) for him. |
A 2nd or 3rd is too high IMO. Teams will look at his past. It took a solid coach to manage him into an efficient QB. That's why he isn't worth the value of a 2nd or 3rd. I'll take that but won't be expecting it. The other teams might look at his past to see that he struggles when he gets put into a new system. They look at his past. |
I'm sure every team is trying to hire solid coaches anyways. If they can't get anything out of Alex, maybe they should try get a real coach.
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big9erfan
Joined: 26 Feb 2007
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:35 pm Post subject: |
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| rudyZ wrote: | | Spiel612 wrote: | | If the Niners would trade Alex Smith this off-season, what do you think he'll go for? He's got a pretty manageable contract with just two years left on it. And how do you think he'd fit in a West Coast Offense? |
From as low to a 2014 conditional 7th rounder to a 2013 3rd, I'd say, depending on the market.
As for the west coast.. sure, as long as there's a strong running game and short to medium throws. If he only has to make 25 or fewer throws and the RBs can run for 130+ yards, that's a winning recipe. |
I still don't get this evaluation. Even if a team only saw him as a backup, backups at many other positions go for 3rds and 4ths. A backup QB ought to be worth AT LEAST that. But he'd be a better starter than lots of other teams looking for QBs now have. Take a guy who led the league in completion percent, and was in the top few in both QBR and YPA and that ought to guarantee something higher than that. Finally add in a guy who was 21-5 in his last two seasons not counting a playoff win and within a fumbled punt return of a trip to the SB. How can that only we worth a low round pick? Unless people are assuming we'll cut him and therefore they don't have to give up anything for him, it makes no sense to me. Heck, even if we planned to cut him a team desperate for a QB, or even a solid backup ought to be willing to trade a relatively high pick to lock him up and keep other teams from outbidding them for him.
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steadypimpin
Joined: 01 Jan 2009
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Location: Rockville, Maryland
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:35 pm Post subject: |
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| rudyZ wrote: | | steadypimpin wrote: | | SFaithful97 wrote: | | I hadn't really thought about this before, but Kaep's success may truly increase Smith's trade value to the high end of a low 2nd or 3rd rounder. It makes it look much less like our staff had no faith in Alex, and that this move was (rightly) because we felt we had something special in Kaep. Whatever your personal feelings about him, facts are facts; It doesn't matter to teams what his past is beyond the last year or two. Teams will know they are trading for a QB who while not Elite or even top 10, did manage to win a playoff game against a high powered Saints team last year and was actually playing quite well this season for the most part. Fans do not determine a players trade value, so regardless of how other teams fans feel about him there will be a team with a solid defense and the ability to run the football (Jets for example, or maybe Jacksonville) who would be a good fit for him. Especially with how weak the top of this draft is for QB's, a QB needy team would probably be willing to take him for a 2nd or 3rd, and draft a later round QB to try and develop for the future. Alex is a better option for a late 2nd rounder than any QB that will be available in the draft at that point this year. I am thrilled with how Kaep is playing, but let's not pretend we weren't getting pretty consistently solid play from Alex in his last 30 games on this team. He has proven recently he is at least a viable starting option, and in the face of this difficult situation has proven he is a team first guy who will be good for a locker room. A team like the Jets that has a coach that needs to win now to keep his job will take the best QB option available to him for this season, even if he has to pay a bit extra (in trade value) for him. |
A 2nd or 3rd is too high IMO. Teams will look at his past. It took a solid coach to manage him into an efficient QB. That's why he isn't worth the value of a 2nd or 3rd. I'll take that but won't be expecting it. The other teams might look at his past to see that he struggles when he gets put into a new system. They look at his past. |
I'm sure every team is trying to hire solid coaches anyways. If they can't get anything out of Alex, maybe they should try get a real coach. |
The thing is that most of these "QB needy" teams aren't that good and Alex isn't going to get them out of the gutter. Also the only team I see him succeeding on is Cleveland but I don't think they are ready to ditch Weeden just yet.
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big9erfan
Joined: 26 Feb 2007
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Spiel612 wrote: | I also like the idea of Alex Smith to Cleveland, but I won't lie, I am hoping the Jets find a way to fit him into our salary cap. We'd have to restructure a few deals, but if the Jets want any chance of winning in 2013 then I think we could really use him.
We are also running a West Coast Offense. Marty Morhinwheg is now our OC and he obviously comes from the Holmgren-Reid tree, which came from Bill Walsh. |
I would guess the Jets would have a much better shot at the playoffs with Smith as their starter instead of Sanchez.
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rudyZ
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
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Location: Québec
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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| steadypimpin wrote: | | rudyZ wrote: | | steadypimpin wrote: | | SFaithful97 wrote: | | I hadn't really thought about this before, but Kaep's success may truly increase Smith's trade value to the high end of a low 2nd or 3rd rounder. It makes it look much less like our staff had no faith in Alex, and that this move was (rightly) because we felt we had something special in Kaep. Whatever your personal feelings about him, facts are facts; It doesn't matter to teams what his past is beyond the last year or two. Teams will know they are trading for a QB who while not Elite or even top 10, did manage to win a playoff game against a high powered Saints team last year and was actually playing quite well this season for the most part. Fans do not determine a players trade value, so regardless of how other teams fans feel about him there will be a team with a solid defense and the ability to run the football (Jets for example, or maybe Jacksonville) who would be a good fit for him. Especially with how weak the top of this draft is for QB's, a QB needy team would probably be willing to take him for a 2nd or 3rd, and draft a later round QB to try and develop for the future. Alex is a better option for a late 2nd rounder than any QB that will be available in the draft at that point this year. I am thrilled with how Kaep is playing, but let's not pretend we weren't getting pretty consistently solid play from Alex in his last 30 games on this team. He has proven recently he is at least a viable starting option, and in the face of this difficult situation has proven he is a team first guy who will be good for a locker room. A team like the Jets that has a coach that needs to win now to keep his job will take the best QB option available to him for this season, even if he has to pay a bit extra (in trade value) for him. |
A 2nd or 3rd is too high IMO. Teams will look at his past. It took a solid coach to manage him into an efficient QB. That's why he isn't worth the value of a 2nd or 3rd. I'll take that but won't be expecting it. The other teams might look at his past to see that he struggles when he gets put into a new system. They look at his past. |
I'm sure every team is trying to hire solid coaches anyways. If they can't get anything out of Alex, maybe they should try get a real coach. |
The thing is that most of these "QB needy" teams aren't that good and Alex isn't going to get them out of the gutter. Also the only team I see him succeeding on is Cleveland but I don't think they are ready to ditch Weeden just yet. |
Of course, Alex can't be the only addition they make to their team. If they're bad, it's likely that their D is bad. But a team investing on defense, bringing in a good DC, Alex could be the missing piece to make their offense efficient.
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y2lamanaki
Joined: 03 Jan 2006
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Location: Lancaster, PA
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:05 pm Post subject: |
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| big9erfan wrote: | | Spiel612 wrote: | I also like the idea of Alex Smith to Cleveland, but I won't lie, I am hoping the Jets find a way to fit him into our salary cap. We'd have to restructure a few deals, but if the Jets want any chance of winning in 2013 then I think we could really use him.
We are also running a West Coast Offense. Marty Morhinwheg is now our OC and he obviously comes from the Holmgren-Reid tree, which came from Bill Walsh. |
I would guess the Jets would have a much better shot at the playoffs with Smith as their starter instead of Sanchez. |
Yeah, but the major problem with the Jets is they're pretty much nailed to Sanchez's contract, so unless they find a way to restructure or Alex signs an extremely reasonable deal for them (which means not with the contract we'd be trading to them), it's not a likely landing spot.
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green24
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:26 pm Post subject: |
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| y2lamanaki wrote: | | big9erfan wrote: | | Spiel612 wrote: | I also like the idea of Alex Smith to Cleveland, but I won't lie, I am hoping the Jets find a way to fit him into our salary cap. We'd have to restructure a few deals, but if the Jets want any chance of winning in 2013 then I think we could really use him.
We are also running a West Coast Offense. Marty Morhinwheg is now our OC and he obviously comes from the Holmgren-Reid tree, which came from Bill Walsh. |
I would guess the Jets would have a much better shot at the playoffs with Smith as their starter instead of Sanchez. |
Yeah, but the major problem with the Jets is they're pretty much nailed to Sanchez's contract, so unless they find a way to restructure or Alex signs an extremely reasonable deal for them (which means not with the contract we'd be trading to them), it's not a likely landing spot. |
Sanchez's contract is only a one year death sentence. He can be cut pretty easily after the 2013 season.
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y2lamanaki
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:42 pm Post subject: |
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| green24 wrote: | | y2lamanaki wrote: | | big9erfan wrote: | | Spiel612 wrote: | I also like the idea of Alex Smith to Cleveland, but I won't lie, I am hoping the Jets find a way to fit him into our salary cap. We'd have to restructure a few deals, but if the Jets want any chance of winning in 2013 then I think we could really use him.
We are also running a West Coast Offense. Marty Morhinwheg is now our OC and he obviously comes from the Holmgren-Reid tree, which came from Bill Walsh. |
I would guess the Jets would have a much better shot at the playoffs with Smith as their starter instead of Sanchez. |
Yeah, but the major problem with the Jets is they're pretty much nailed to Sanchez's contract, so unless they find a way to restructure or Alex signs an extremely reasonable deal for them (which means not with the contract we'd be trading to them), it's not a likely landing spot. |
Sanchez's contract is only a one year death sentence. He can be cut pretty easily after the 2013 season. |
Right, but that doesn't change the fact that for 2013, it'd be extremely difficult to fit both of them. We're not likely keeping Alex for 2013, so if you're looking at him as a 2014 possibility, it would be a different team you'd have to be looking at to acquire him.
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49ers Finest
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 10:53 pm Post subject: |
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| big9erfan wrote: | | rudyZ wrote: | | Spiel612 wrote: | | If the Niners would trade Alex Smith this off-season, what do you think he'll go for? He's got a pretty manageable contract with just two years left on it. And how do you think he'd fit in a West Coast Offense? |
From as low to a 2014 conditional 7th rounder to a 2013 3rd, I'd say, depending on the market.
As for the west coast.. sure, as long as there's a strong running game and short to medium throws. If he only has to make 25 or fewer throws and the RBs can run for 130+ yards, that's a winning recipe. |
I still don't get this evaluation. Even if a team only saw him as a backup, backups at many other positions go for 3rds and 4ths. A backup QB ought to be worth AT LEAST that. But he'd be a better starter than lots of other teams looking for QBs now have. Take a guy who led the league in completion percent, and was in the top few in both QBR and YPA and that ought to guarantee something higher than that. Finally add in a guy who was 21-5 in his last two seasons not counting a playoff win and within a fumbled punt return of a trip to the SB. How can that only we worth a low round pick? Unless people are assuming we'll cut him and therefore they don't have to give up anything for him, it makes no sense to me. Heck, even if we planned to cut him a team desperate for a QB, or even a solid backup ought to be willing to trade a relatively high pick to lock him up and keep other teams from outbidding them for him. |
never thought about it like this, interesting point and very valid point.
just last season the giants traded a fifth to the bengals for keith rivers. it was known that he wasnt very good. he also had over a 2 million dollar price tag and "rented" him for a year
last year the rams traded a sixth for brandon lloyd to the broncos to rent for less than a year. already 4 games into the season.
price was much lower, but the qb position is MUCH MORE IMPORTANT as well. and 2.16 mill for a pretty bad olb is pretty high too.
but if comes down to a late pick, like 6/7 which could happen, but i think hes worth a late second to fifth... i can see us cutting him so he can choose where he wants to go or whatever
i think realistically we can get a third or fourth though. 9 mill def isnt bad for a qb
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big9erfan
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| Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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| SFaithful97 wrote: | | steadypimpin wrote: | | SFaithful97 wrote: | | I hadn't really thought about this before, but Kaep's success may truly increase Smith's trade value to the high end of a low 2nd or 3rd rounder. It makes it look much less like our staff had no faith in Alex, and that this move was (rightly) because we felt we had something special in Kaep. Whatever your personal feelings about him, facts are facts; It doesn't matter to teams what his past is beyond the last year or two. Teams will know they are trading for a QB who while not Elite or even top 10, did manage to win a playoff game against a high powered Saints team last year and was actually playing quite well this season for the most part. Fans do not determine a players trade value, so regardless of how other teams fans feel about him there will be a team with a solid defense and the ability to run the football (Jets for example, or maybe Jacksonville) who would be a good fit for him. Especially with how weak the top of this draft is for QB's, a QB needy team would probably be willing to take him for a 2nd or 3rd, and draft a later round QB to try and develop for the future. Alex is a better option for a late 2nd rounder than any QB that will be available in the draft at that point this year. I am thrilled with how Kaep is playing, but let's not pretend we weren't getting pretty consistently solid play from Alex in his last 30 games on this team. He has proven recently he is at least a viable starting option, and in the face of this difficult situation has proven he is a team first guy who will be good for a locker room. A team like the Jets that has a coach that needs to win now to keep his job will take the best QB option available to him for this season, even if he has to pay a bit extra (in trade value) for him. |
A 2nd or 3rd is too high IMO. Teams will look at his past. It took a solid coach to manage him into an efficient QB. That's why he isn't worth the value of a 2nd or 3rd. I'll take that but won't be expecting it. The other teams might look at his past to see that he struggles when he gets put into a new system. They look at his past. |
You are wrong about that I believe. They will look at his limitations sure, but it isn't like he was bad last year or this year. He has a 32 game span over the last 3 seasons that he has been playing really good football (not explosive but efficient). His limited potential keeps his value from being really high, but if you look at his recent seasons he has played well enough to at least warrant a 3rd. High end should be a 2nd and a later pick ...say 6th. Low end (as in laugh and tell them no if offere
d less) should be a 4th and 6th or conditional future 3rd. |
And that's the only past that matters. He's had three good to really good years these past three years. Unlike some posters here, teams will not care what he did 4 or more years ago.
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